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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Chemically distinct regions of Venus’s atmosphere revealed by measured N 2 concentrations

A defining characteristic of the planet Venus is its thick, CO 2 -dominated atmosphere. Despite over 50 years of robotic exploration of Venus, including thirteen successful atmospheric probes and landers, our knowledge of N 2 , the second most abundant compound in the atmosphere, is highly uncertain. We report the first measurement of the nitrogen content of Venus’s atmosphere at altitudes between 60 and 100 km. Our result, 5.0 ± 0.4 v% N 2 , is 40% higher than the value of 3.5 v% N 2 reported for the lower atmosphere (<50 km altitude). Our discovery of altitude-dependent variations in the N 2 content of the atmosphere defies early expectations of homogeneous composition below 100 km (for example, see ref. 1), and necessitates complete chemical modelling to investigate chemical versus physical explanations for the enhanced N 2 in the upper atmosphere. Furthermore, the existence of chemically distinct lower and upper atmosphere regions complicates the use of remote sensing measurements of the upper atmosphere to infer the properties of the lower atmosphere and surface, an important lesson that also extends to the growing field of exoplanet astronomy.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence that the Hot Jupiter WASP-77 A b Formed Beyond Its Parent Protoplanetary Disk’s H2O Ice Line

Idealized protoplanetary disk and giant planet formation models have been interpreted to suggest that a giant planet's atmospheric abundances can be used to infer its formation location in its parent protoplanetary disk. It has recently been reported that the hot Jupiter WASP-77 A b has subsolar atmospheric carbon and oxygen abundances with a solar C/O abundance ratio. Assuming solar carbon and oxygen abundances for its host star WASP-77 A, WASP-77 A b's atmospheric carbon and oxygen abundances possibly indicate that it accreted its envelope interior to its parent protoplanetary disk's H 2 O ice line from carbon-depleted gas with little subsequent planetesimal accretion or core erosion. We show that the photospheric abundances of carbon and oxygen in WASP-77 A are supersolar with a subsolar C/O abundance ratio, implying that WASP-77 A b's atmosphere has significantly substellar carbon and oxygen abundances with a superstellar C/O ratio. Our result possibly indicates that WASP-77 A b's envelope was accreted by the planet beyond its parent protoplanetary disk's H 2 O ice line. While numerous theoretical complications to these idealized models have now been identified, the possibility of nonsolar protoplanetary disk abundance ratios confound even the most sophisticated protoplanetary disk and giant planet formation models. We therefore argue that giant planet atmospheric abundance ratios can only be meaningfully interpreted relative to the possibly nonsolar mean compositions of their parent protoplanetary disks as recorded in the photospheric abundances of their dwarf host stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of 10 Unique Chemical Elements in Shaping the Distribution of Kepler Planets

The chemical abundances of planet-hosting stars offer a glimpse into the composition of planet-forming environments. To further understand this connection, we make the first ever measurement of the correlation between planet occurrence and chemical abundances for ten different elements (C, Mg, Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, and Ni). Leveraging data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and Gaia to derive precise stellar parameters (${\sigma }_{{R}_{\star }}\approx 2.3 \% $, ${\sigma }_{{M}_{\star }}\approx 4.5 \% $) for a sample of 1018 Kepler Objects of Interest, we construct a sample of well-vetted Kepler planets with precisely measured radii (${\sigma }_{{R}_{p}}\approx 3.4 \% $). After controlling for biases in the Kepler detection pipeline and the selection function of the APOGEE survey, we characterize the relationship between planet occurrence and chemical abundance as the number density of nuclei of each element in a star's photosphere raised to a power, β. varies by planet type, but is consistent within our uncertainties across all ten elements. For hot planets (P = 1–10 days), an enhancement in any element of 0.1 dex corresponds to an increased occurrence of ≈20% for super-Earths (Rp = 1–1.9 R⊕) and ≈60% for sub-Neptunes (Rp = 1.9–4 R⊕). Trends are weaker for warm (P = 10–100 days) planets of all sizes and for all elements, with the potential exception of sub-Saturns (Rp = 4–8 R⊕). Finally, we conclude this work with a caution to interpreting trends between planet occurrence and stellar age due to degeneracies caused by Galactic chemical evolution and make predictions for planet occurrence rates in nearby open clusters to facilitate demographics studies of young planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planetary Spin and Obliquity from Mergers

In planetary systems with sufficiently small inter-planet spacing, close encounters can lead to planetary collisions/mergers or ejections. Here, we study the spin property of the merger products of two giant planets in a statistical manner using numerical simulations and analytical modeling. Planetary collisions lead to rapidly rotating objects and a broad range of obliquities. We find that, under typical conditions for two-planet scatterings, the distributions of spin magnitude S and obliquity ${\theta }_{\mathrm{SL}}$ of the merger products have simple analytical forms: f S ∝ S and ${f}_{\cos {\theta }_{\mathrm{SL}}}\propto {(1-{\cos }^{2}{\theta }_{\mathrm{SL}})}^{-1/2}$. Through parameter studies, we determine the regime of validity for the analytical distributions of spin and obliquity. Since planetary mergers are a major outcome of planet–planet scatterings, observational search for the spin/obliquity signatures of exoplanets would provide important constraints on the dynamical history of planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

New Perspectives on the Exoplanet Radius Gap from a Mathematica Tool and Visualized Water Equation of State

Recent astronomical observations obtained with the Kepler and TESS missions and their related ground-based follow-ups revealed an abundance of exoplanets with a size intermediate between Earth and Neptune (1 R ⊕ ≤ R ≤ 4 R ⊕ ). A low occurrence rate of planets has been identified at around twice the size of Earth (2 × R ⊕ ), known as the exoplanet radius gap or radius valley. We explore the geometry of this gap in the mass–radius diagram, with the help of a Mathematica plotting tool developed with the capability of manipulating exoplanet data in multidimensional parameter space, and with the help of visualized water equations of state in the temperature–density (T–ρ) graph and the entropy–pressure (s–P) graph. We show that the radius valley can be explained by a compositional difference between smaller, predominantly rocky planets (<2 × R ⊕ ) and larger planets (>2 × R ⊕ ) that exhibit greater compositional diversity including cosmic ices (water, ammonia, methane, etc.) and gaseous envelopes. In particular, among the larger planets (>2 × R ⊕ ), when viewed from the perspective of planet equilibrium temperature (T eq ), the hot ones (T eq ≳ 900 K) are consistent with ice-dominated composition without significant gaseous envelopes, while the cold ones (T eq ≲ 900 K) have more diverse compositions, including various amounts of gaseous envelopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bringing 2D Eclipse Mapping out of the Shadows with Leave-one-out Cross Validation

Abstract Eclipse mapping is a technique for inferring 2D brightness maps of transiting exoplanets from the shape of an eclipse light curve. With JWST’s unmatched precision, eclipse mapping is now possible for a large number of exoplanets. However, eclipse mapping has only been applied to two planets, and the nuances of fitting eclipse maps are not yet fully understood. Here, we use Leave-one-out Cross Validation (LOO-CV) to investigate eclipse mapping, with application to a JWST NIRISS/SOSS observation of the ultrahot Jupiter WASP-18b. LOO-CV is a technique that provides insight into the out-of-sample predictive power of models on a data-point-by-data-point basis. We show that constraints on planetary brightness patterns behave as expected, with large-scale variations driven by the phase-curve variation in the light curve and smaller-scale structures constrained by the eclipse ingress and egress. For WASP-18b we show that the need for higher model complexity (smaller-scale features) is driven exclusively by the shape of the eclipse ingress and egress. We use LOO-CV to investigate the relationship between planetary brightness map components when mapping under a positive-flux constraint to better understand the need for complex models. Finally, we use LOO-CV to understand the degeneracy between the competing “hot spot” and “plateau” brightness map models of WASP-18b, showing that the plateau model is driven by the ingress shape and the hot spot model is driven by the egress shape, but preference for neither model is due to outliers or unmodeled signals. Based on this analysis, we make recommendations for the use of LOO-CV in future eclipse-mapping studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

K2-79b and K2-222b: Mass Measurements of Two Small Exoplanets with Periods beyond 10 days that Overlap with Periodic Magnetic Activity Signals

We present mass and radius measurements of K2-79b and K2-222b, two transiting exoplanets orbiting active G-type stars observed with HARPS-N and K2. Their respective 10.99 day and 15.39 day orbital periods fall near periods of signals induced by stellar magnetic activity. The two signals might therefore interfere and lead to an inaccurate estimate of exoplanet mass. We present a method to mitigate these effects when radial velocity (RV) and activityindicator observations are available over multiple observing seasons and the orbital period of the exoplanet is known. We perform correlation and periodogram analyses on subsets composed of each target's two observing seasons, in addition to the full data sets. For both targets, these analyses reveal an optimal season with little to no interference at the orbital period of the known exoplanet. We make a confident mass detection of each exoplanet by confirming agreement between fits to the full RV set and the optimal season. For K2-79b, we measure a mass of 11.8 ± 3.6 M ⊕ and a radius of 4.09 ± 0.17 R ⊕ . For K2-222b, we measure a mass of 8.0 ± 1.8 M ⊕ and a radius of 2.35 ± 0.08 R ⊕ . According to model predictions, K2-79b is a highly irradiated Uranus analog and K2-222b hosts significant amounts of water ice. We also present a RV solution for a candidate second companion orbiting K2-222 at 147.5 days.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Search for Technosignatures Around 11,680 Stars with the Green Bank Telescope at 1.15–1.73 GHz

We conducted a search for narrowband radio signals over four observing sessions in 2020–2023 with the $L$-band receiver (1.15–1.73 GHz) of the 100 m diameter Green Bank Telescope. We pointed the telescope in the directions of 62 TESS Objects of Interest, capturing radio emissions from a total of ~11,680 stars and planetary systems in the ~9' beam of the telescope. All detections were either automatically rejected or visually inspected and confirmed to be of anthropogenic nature. We also quantified the end-to-end efficiency of radio SETI pipelines with a signal injection and recovery analysis. The UCLA SETI pipeline recovers 94.0% of the injected signals over the usable frequency range of the receiver and 98.7% of the injections when regions of dense radio frequency interference are excluded. In another pipeline that uses incoherent sums of 51 consecutive spectra, the recovery rate is ~15 times smaller at ~6%. The pipeline efficiency affects calculations of transmitter prevalence and SETI search volume. Accordingly, we developed an improved Drake figure of merit and a formalism to place upper limits on transmitter prevalence that take the pipeline efficiency and transmitter duty cycle into account. Based on our observations, we can state at the 95% confidence level that fewer than 6.6% of stars within 100 pc host a transmitter that is continuously transmitting a narrowband signal with an equivalent isotropic radiated power (EIRP) > 10 13 W. For stars within 20,000 ly, the fraction of stars with detectable transmitters (EIRP > 5 × 10 16 W) is at most 3 × 10 -4 . Finally, we showed that the UCLA SETI pipeline natively detects the signals detected with AI techniques by Ma et al.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetospheres of Terrestrial Exoplanets and Exomoons: Implications for Habitability and Detection

Characterizing habitable exoplanets and/or their moons is of paramount importance. Here we show the results of our magnetic field topological modeling, which demonstrate that terrestrial exoplanet–exomoon coupled magnetospheres work together to protect the early atmospheres of both the exoplanet and the exomoon. When exomoon magnetospheres are within the exoplanet's magnetospheric cavity, the exomoon magnetosphere acts like a protective magnetic bubble providing an additional magnetopause confronting the stellar winds when the moon is on the dayside. In addition, magnetic reconnection would create a critical pathway for the atmosphere exchange between the early exoplanet and exomoon. When the exomoon's magnetosphere is outside of the exoplanet's magnetosphere it then becomes the first line of defense against strong stellar winds, reducing the exoplanet's atmospheric loss to space. A brief discussion is given on how this type of exomoon would modify radio emissions from magnetized exoplanets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulated Modeling and Retrieval of Near-infrared Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Pandora is a SmallSat mission dedicated to understanding exoplanets and their host stars by disentangling the impact of stellar heterogeneity on exoplanet transmission spectra. Selected as a NASA Astrophysics Pioneers mission in 2021, Pandora will provide simultaneous long-term visible photometric monitoring (0.4–0.7 μm) and low-resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (0.9–1.6 μm) of transiting systems for the purposes of monitoring host star variability and characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres. Pandora’s year-long prime mission from 2026 to 2027 coincides with the middle of a decade defined by targeted efforts for atmospheric characterization of exoplanets, offering a key opportunity to leverage this new resource to maximize science with JWST and other observatories. Here we investigate Pandora’s anticipated performance for the general exoplanet population accessible to transit spectroscopy, from hot Jupiters to temperate sub-Neptunes. By modeling the atmospheres of five test cases broadly consistent with the bulk properties of HD 209458b, HD 189733b, WASP-80 b, HAT-P-18 b, and K2-18 b, we find that Pandora may provide abundance constraints as precise as ∼1.0 dex for main atmospheric absorbers such as H 2 O and CH 4 . Then, we explore the synergies between Pandora and JWST. Our results suggest that targets with JWST data in the NIR can benefit from the addition of Pandora observations and result in more reliable abundance estimates than with JWST data alone. Moreover, Pandora can serve the community by providing precursory observations of targets of interest for JWST atmospheric characterization. We conclude by outlining strategies for the use of Pandora as a standalone observatory and in synergy with JWST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detailed Chemical Abundances for a Benchmark Sample of M Dwarfs from the APOGEE Survey

Individual chemical abundances for 14 elements (C, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Ni) are derived for a sample of M dwarfs using high-resolution, near-infrared H-band spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-IV/Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) survey. The quantitative analysis included synthetic spectra computed with 1D LTE plane-parallel MARCS models using the APOGEE Data Release 17 line list to determine chemical abundances. The sample consists of 11 M dwarfs in binary systems with warmer FGK dwarf primaries and 10 measured interferometric angular diameters. To minimize atomic diffusion effects, [X/Fe] ratios are used to compare M dwarfs in binary systems and literature results for their warmer primary stars, indicating good agreement (<0.08 dex) for all studied elements. The mean abundance difference in primaries minus this work's M dwarfs is –0.05 ± 0.03 dex. It indicates that M dwarfs in binary systems are a reliable way to calibrate empirical relationships. A comparison with abundance, effective temperature, and surface gravity results from the APOGEE Stellar Parameter and Chemical Abundances Pipeline (ASPCAP) Data Release 16 finds a systematic offset of [M/H], T eff , log g = +0.21 dex, –50 K, and 0.30 dex, respectively, although ASPCAP [X/Fe] ratios are generally consistent with this study. The metallicities of the M dwarfs cover the range of [Fe/H] = –0.9 to +0.4 and are used to investigate Galactic chemical evolution via trends of [X/Fe] as a function of [Fe/H]. The behavior of the various elemental abundances [X/Fe] versus [Fe/H] agrees well with the corresponding trends derived from warmer FGK dwarfs, demonstrating that the APOGEE spectra can be used to examine Galactic chemical evolution using large samples of selected M dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

HD 143811 AB b: A Directly Imaged Planet Orbiting a Spectroscopic Binary in Sco-Cen

We present confirmation of HD 143811 AB b, a substellar companion to spectroscopic binary HD 143811 AB through direct imaging with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) and Keck NIRC2. HD 143811 AB was observed as a part of the GPI Exoplanet Survey in 2016 and 2019 and is a member of the Sco-Cen star formation region. The exoplanet is detected ∼430 mas from the host star by GPI. With two GPI epochs and one from Keck/NIRC2 in 2022, we confirm through common proper motion analysis that the object is bound to its host star. We derive an orbit with a semimajor axis of $64^{+32}_{-14}$ au and eccentricity $0.23^{+0.24}_{-0.16}$. Spectral analysis of the GPI H-band spectrum and NIRC2 L′ photometry provides additional proof that this object is a substellar companion. We compare the spectrum of HD 143811 AB b to PHOENIX stellar models and Exo-Radioactive-Convective Equilibrium Model (REM) exoplanet atmosphere models and find that Exo-REM models provide the best fits to the data. From the Exo-REM models, we derive an effective temperature of $1042^{+178}_{-132}$ K for the planet and translate the derived luminosity of the planet to a mass of 5.6 ± 1.1 M Jup assuming hot-start evolutionary models. HD 143811 AB b is the first directly imaged planet around a binary that is not on an ultrawide orbit. Future characterization of this object will shed light on the formation of planets around binary star systems.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transverse Vector Decomposition Method for Analytical Inversion of Exoplanet Transit Spectra

Abstract We develop a new method for analytical inversion of binned exoplanet transit spectra and for retrieval of planet parameters. The method has a geometrical interpretation and treats each observed spectrum as a single vector r → in the multidimensional spectral space of observed bin values. We decompose the observed r → into two orthogonal components: a wavelength-independent component r → ∥ corresponding to the spectral mean across all observed bins, and a transverse component r → ⊥ that is wavelength dependent and contains the relevant information about the atmospheric chemistry. The method allows us to extract, without any prior assumptions or additional information, the relative mass (or volume) mixing ratios of the absorbers in the atmosphere, the scale height to stellar radius ratio, H / R S , and the atmospheric temperature. The method is illustrated and validated with several examples of increasing complexity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The FastrSHWFS Project Development Motivation, Analysis, & Test Results

The recent 2020 Decadal Survey of Astronomy and Astrophysics listed habitable exoplanet imaging with future extreme adaptive optics (AO) on 30m-class telescopes as a key priority in the coming decade. However, there is a current 100x contrast gap between the best systems today and what is needed to enable this goal. Astronomical AO is a required approach to enable ground-based diffraction-limited imaging of exoplanets on future extremely large telescopes. Time lag between the end of an exposure and the application of deformable mirror commands is a major contributor to the error budget in many AO systems, and detector read time is often a large component of this lag. We present two designs for a modified Shack Hartmann wavefront sensor (SHWFS), named Focal plane Actualized Shifted Technique Realized for a SHWFS (fastrSHWFS), to reduce the time lag component. This design steers the spot pattern at the focal plane into a rectangular or linear array with a custom aspect ratio, reducing readout time. The mask with focus yields aberrated results while the mask with tip/tilt only yields some defined spots. This essay outlines the current SHWFS concept, our fastrSHWFS theoretical solution to addressing time lag, reflection and quality analysis of printed mask designs, and results from testing both masks on the High Contrast Testbed at Lawrence Livermore National Lab. This work follows the test of a previous fastrSHWFS design.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Searching For Transiting Planets Around Halo Stars. I. Sample Selection and Validation

By measuring the elemental abundances of a star, we can gain insight into the composition of its initial gas cloud—the formation site of the star and its planets. Planet formation requires metals, the availability of which is determined by the elemental abundance. In the case where metals are extremely deficient, planet formation can be stifled. To investigate such a scenario requires a large sample of metal-poor stars and a search for planets therein. This paper focuses on the selection and validation of a halo star sample. We select ~17,000 metal-poor halo stars based on their Galactic kinematics, and confirm their low metallicities ([Fe/H] < -0.5), using spectroscopy from the literature. Furthermore, we perform high-resolution spectroscopic observations using LBT/PEPSI and conduct detailed metallicity ([Fe/H]) analyses on a sample of 13 previously-known halo stars that also have hot kinematics. We can use the halo star sample presented here to measure the frequency of planets and to test planet formation in extremely metal-poor environments. The result of the planet search and its implications will be presented and discussed in a companion paper by Boley et al.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Star-exoplanet interactions: A growing interdisciplinary field in heliophysics

Traditionally, heliophysics is characterized as the study of the near-Earth space environment, where plasmas and neutral gases originating from the Earth, the Sun, and other solar system bodies interact in ways that are detectable only through in-situ or close-range (usually within ~10 AU) remote sensing. As a result, heliophysics has data from the space environment around a handful of solar system objects, in particular the Sun and Earth. Comparatively, astrophysics has data from an extensive array of objects, but is more limited in temporal, spatial, and wavelength information from any individual object. Thus, our understanding of planetary space environments as a complex, multi-dimensional network of specific interacting systems may in the past have seemed to have little to do with the highly diverse space environments detected through astrophysical methods. Recent technological advances have begun to bridge this divide. Exoplanetary studies are opening up avenues to study planetary environments beyond our solar system, with missions like Kepler, TESS, and JWST, along with increasing capabilities of ground-based observations. At the same time, heliophysics studies are pushing beyond the boundaries of our heliosphere with Voyager, IBEX, and the future IMAP mission. The interdisciplinary field of star-exoplanet interactions is a critical, growing area of study that enriches heliophysics. A multidisciplinary approach to heliophysics enables us to better understand universal processes that operate in diverse environments, as well as the evolution of our solar system and extreme space weather. The expertise, data, theory, and modeling tools developed by heliophysicists are crucial in understanding the space environments of exoplanets, their host stars, and their potential habitability. The mutual benefit that heliophysics and exoplanetary studies offer each other depends on strong, continuing solar system-focused and Earth-focused heliophysics studies. The heliophysics discipline requires new targeted funding to support inter-divisional opportunities, including small multi-disciplinary research projects, large collaborative research teams, and observations targeting the heliophysics of planetary and exoplanet systems. Here we discuss areas of heliophysics-relevant exoplanetary research, observational opportunities and challenges, and ways to promote the inclusion of heliophysics within the wider exoplanetary community.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulating the Impact of Stellar Photospheric Heterogeneity and Its Correction

Stellar photospheric heterogeneity is a dominant astrophysical systematic impacting exoplanet transmission spectroscopy. NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission is designed to address this challenge through contemporaneous visible-band photometry and near-infrared spectroscopy of exoplanet host stars. Here, we present an end-to-end simulation study quantifying Pandora’s ability to infer stellar photospheric properties and correct stellar contamination using out-of-transit observations. We construct eight representative stellar activity scenarios and generate 160 simulated Pandora datasets, incorporating time-dependent stellar spectra, instrument response, and noise. Given accurate models, Bayesian retrievals of joint visible photometry (0.4–0.7 μm) and near-infrared spectroscopy (0.9–1.6 μm, R ≈ 120) recover photospheric temperatures with typical uncertainties of ≈30 K, with no significant bias. Models with two spectral components (i.e., a quiescent photosphere and spots) are strongly favored in 95% of cases; one-component models are preferred when true spot filling factors fall below a detection threshold of ≈0.3%. We propagate the true and inferred stellar parameters to compute true, inferred, and residual contamination signals under physically motivated spot geometries. For simple spot distributions, contamination signals of 10 2 –10 3 ppm are reduced to ≲10 ppm—well below Pandora’s expected transmission spectroscopy precision (30–100 ppm). For more complex spot distributions, geometric degeneracies limit deterministic corrections, leaving residual contamination at the 10 3 ppm level that must be mitigated using additional constraints, such as spot-crossing events and joint stellar–planetary retrievals of transmission spectra. These results define regimes in which stellar contamination can be corrected from stellar observations alone and show how Pandora stellar observations can identify cases where additional information is required.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗