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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulated Modeling and Retrieval of Near-infrared Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Pandora is a SmallSat mission dedicated to understanding exoplanets and their host stars by disentangling the impact of stellar heterogeneity on exoplanet transmission spectra. Selected as a NASA Astrophysics Pioneers mission in 2021, Pandora will provide simultaneous long-term visible photometric monitoring (0.4–0.7 μm) and low-resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy (0.9–1.6 μm) of transiting systems for the purposes of monitoring host star variability and characterizing exoplanetary atmospheres. Pandora’s year-long prime mission from 2026 to 2027 coincides with the middle of a decade defined by targeted efforts for atmospheric characterization of exoplanets, offering a key opportunity to leverage this new resource to maximize science with JWST and other observatories. Here we investigate Pandora’s anticipated performance for the general exoplanet population accessible to transit spectroscopy, from hot Jupiters to temperate sub-Neptunes. By modeling the atmospheres of five test cases broadly consistent with the bulk properties of HD 209458b, HD 189733b, WASP-80 b, HAT-P-18 b, and K2-18 b, we find that Pandora may provide abundance constraints as precise as ∼1.0 dex for main atmospheric absorbers such as H 2 O and CH 4 . Then, we explore the synergies between Pandora and JWST. Our results suggest that targets with JWST data in the NIR can benefit from the addition of Pandora observations and result in more reliable abundance estimates than with JWST data alone. Moreover, Pandora can serve the community by providing precursory observations of targets of interest for JWST atmospheric characterization. We conclude by outlining strategies for the use of Pandora as a standalone observatory and in synergy with JWST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Photochemical Phosphorus-Hydrogen-Oxygen Network for Hydrogen-dominated Exoplanet Atmospheres

Due to the detection of phosphine (PH 3 ) in the solar system gas giants Jupiter and Saturn, PH 3 has long been suggested to be detectable in exosolar substellar atmospheres too. However, to date, direct detection of phosphine has proven to be elusive in exoplanet atmosphere surveys. We construct an updated phosphorus-hydrogen-oxygen (PHO) photochemical network suitable for the simulation of gas giant hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Using this network, we examine PHO photochemistry in hot Jupiter and warm Neptune exoplanet atmospheres at solar and enriched metallicities. Our results show for HD 189733b-like hot Jupiters that HOPO, PO, and P 2 are typically the dominant P carriers at pressures important for transit and emission spectra, rather than PH 3 . For GJ1214b-like warm Neptune atmospheres our results suggest that at solar metallicity PH 3 is dominant in the absence of photochemistry, but is generally not in high abundance for all other chemical environments. At 10 and 100 times solar, small oxygenated phosphorus molecules such as HOPO and PO dominate for both thermochemical and photochemical simulations. The network is able to reproduce well the observed PH 3 abundances on Jupiter and Saturn. Despite progress in improving the accuracy of the PHO network, large portions of the reaction rate data remain with approximate, uncertain, or missing values, which could change the conclusions of the current study significantly. Improving understanding of the kinetics of phosphorus-bearing chemical reactions will be a key undertaking for astronomers aiming to detect phosphine and other phosphorus species in both rocky and gaseous exoplanetary atmospheres in the near future.

atmospheric composition↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence that the Hot Jupiter WASP-77 A b Formed Beyond Its Parent Protoplanetary Disk’s H2O Ice Line

Idealized protoplanetary disk and giant planet formation models have been interpreted to suggest that a giant planet's atmospheric abundances can be used to infer its formation location in its parent protoplanetary disk. It has recently been reported that the hot Jupiter WASP-77 A b has subsolar atmospheric carbon and oxygen abundances with a solar C/O abundance ratio. Assuming solar carbon and oxygen abundances for its host star WASP-77 A, WASP-77 A b's atmospheric carbon and oxygen abundances possibly indicate that it accreted its envelope interior to its parent protoplanetary disk's H 2 O ice line from carbon-depleted gas with little subsequent planetesimal accretion or core erosion. We show that the photospheric abundances of carbon and oxygen in WASP-77 A are supersolar with a subsolar C/O abundance ratio, implying that WASP-77 A b's atmosphere has significantly substellar carbon and oxygen abundances with a superstellar C/O ratio. Our result possibly indicates that WASP-77 A b's envelope was accreted by the planet beyond its parent protoplanetary disk's H 2 O ice line. While numerous theoretical complications to these idealized models have now been identified, the possibility of nonsolar protoplanetary disk abundance ratios confound even the most sophisticated protoplanetary disk and giant planet formation models. We therefore argue that giant planet atmospheric abundance ratios can only be meaningfully interpreted relative to the possibly nonsolar mean compositions of their parent protoplanetary disks as recorded in the photospheric abundances of their dwarf host stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disequilibrium Chemistry in Exoplanet Atmospheres Observed with the Hubble Space Telescope

Literature on the theory of exoplanet atmospheric disequilibrium chemistry is rich, although its observational counterpart has yet to emerge beyond the hints provided by a few targets in dedicated studies. We report results from an uniform data reduction and analysis for a catalog of 62 Hubble Space Telescope exoplanet transit spectra where we assess the atmospheric model preference for disequilibrium chemistry (i.e., water vapor is not the dominant absorption spectral signature) over thermal equilibrium chemistry in a comparative planetology context. Where model preference assessment is possible, we find that disequilibrium occurs in about half of the atmospheres, indicating that disequilibrium processes play an important role in the composition of exoplanet atmospheres. While very hot atmospheres, over 1800 K, prefer equilibrium chemistry, we find a clustering of preference for disequilibrium in the 1200–1800 K temperature range. We suggest that UV-augmented thermochemistry may play a significant role for those atmospheres.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gemini Planet Imager Spectroscopy of the Dusty Substellar Companion HD 206893 B

We present new near-infrared Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) spectroscopy of HD 206893 B, a substellar companion orbiting within the debris disk of its F5V star. The J, H, K1, and K2 spectra from GPI demonstrate the extraordinarily red colors of the object, confirming it as the reddest substellar object observed to date. The significant flux increase throughout the infrared presents a challenging atmosphere to model with existing grids. Best-fit values vary from 1200 to 1800 K for effective temperature and from 3.0 to 5.0 for log(g), depending on which individual wavelength band is fit and which model suite is applied. The extreme redness of the companion can be partially reconciled by invoking a high-altitude layer of submicron dust particles, similar to dereddening approaches applied to the peculiar red field L dwarf population. However, reconciling the HD 206893 B spectra with even those of the reddest low-gravity L dwarf spectra still requires the contribution of additional atmospheric dust, potentially due to the debris disk environment in which the companion resides. Orbit fitting from 4 yr of astrometric monitoring is consistent with a ∼30 yr period, an orbital inclination of 147°, and a semimajor axis of 10 au, well within the estimated disk inner radius of ∼50 au. As one of a very few substellar companions imaged interior to a circumstellar disk, the properties of this system offer important dynamical constraints on companion–disk interaction and provide a benchmark for substellar and planetary atmospheric study.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transverse Vector Decomposition Method for Analytical Inversion of Exoplanet Transit Spectra

Abstract We develop a new method for analytical inversion of binned exoplanet transit spectra and for retrieval of planet parameters. The method has a geometrical interpretation and treats each observed spectrum as a single vector r → in the multidimensional spectral space of observed bin values. We decompose the observed r → into two orthogonal components: a wavelength-independent component r → ∥ corresponding to the spectral mean across all observed bins, and a transverse component r → ⊥ that is wavelength dependent and contains the relevant information about the atmospheric chemistry. The method allows us to extract, without any prior assumptions or additional information, the relative mass (or volume) mixing ratios of the absorbers in the atmosphere, the scale height to stellar radius ratio, H / R S , and the atmospheric temperature. The method is illustrated and validated with several examples of increasing complexity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phase-curve Pollution of Exoplanet Transit Depths

The next generation of space telescopes will enable transformative science to understand the nature and origin of exoplanets. In particular, transit spectroscopy will reveal the chemical composition of the exoplanet atmospheres with unprecedented detail thanks to precise measurements of the visible-to-infrared transit depths down to 10 parts per million. Such a level of instrumental precision raises the challenge to obtain even more precise astrophysical models so as not to significantly influence the interpretation of the observed data. We must therefore critically revisit some of the commonly accepted assumptions that were adequate for analyzing past and current observations. A common approximation in the analysis of exoplanetary primary transits is that the planet does not contribute to the recorded flux, so-called dark planet hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the dark planet hypothesis on the parameters obtained from the analysis of transits with particular attention to the transit depth. We develop mathematical formulae and release new software to estimate the magnitude of the potential bias. These tools will be useful in the preparation of observing proposals, as well as within the scientific consortia of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) missions. We probe the accuracy of the mathematical formulae through the analysis of synthetic observations with the JWST Mid-InfraRed Instrument. We find that self-blending from nightside emission attenuates the transit depth by >3σ for some of the known exoplanet systems, in agreement with previous work. An additional unreported effect caused by the nightside rotating into view can also impart a significant effect, but in the opposite direction (increasing the transit depth); this effect can largely be removed with conventional detrending practices, at the expense of a slight increase in noise, and mixing astrophysical variations and instrumental drifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytical Modeling of Exoplanet Transit Spectroscopy with Dimensional Analysis and Symbolic Regression

Abstract The physical characteristics and atmospheric chemical composition of newly discovered exoplanets are often inferred from their transit spectra, which are obtained from complex numerical models of radiative transfer. Alternatively, simple analytical expressions provide insightful physical intuition into the relevant atmospheric processes. The deep-learning revolution has opened the door for deriving such analytical results directly with a computer algorithm fitting to the data. As a proof of concept, we successfully demonstrate the use of symbolic regression on synthetic data for the transit radii of generic hot-Jupiter exoplanets to derive a corresponding analytical formula. As a preprocessing step, we use dimensional analysis to identify the relevant dimensionless combinations of variables and reduce the number of independent inputs, which improves the performance of the symbolic regression. The dimensional analysis also allowed us to mathematically derive and properly parameterize the most general family of degeneracies among the input atmospheric parameters that affect the characterization of an exoplanet atmosphere through transit spectroscopy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Sonora Substellar Atmosphere Models. II. Cholla: A Grid of Cloud-free, Solar Metallicity Models in Chemical Disequilibrium for the JWST Era

Exoplanet and brown dwarf atmospheres commonly show signs of disequilibrium chemistry. In the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) era, high-resolution spectra of directly imaged exoplanets will allow the characterization of their atmospheres in more detail, and allow systematic tests for the presence of chemical species that deviate from thermochemical equilibrium in these atmospheres. Constraining the presence of disequilibrium chemistry in these atmospheres as a function of parameters such as their effective temperature and surface gravity will allow us to place better constraints on the physics governing these atmospheres. This paper is part of a series of works presenting the Sonora grid of atmosphere models. In this paper, we present a grid of cloud-free, solar metallicity atmospheres for brown dwarfs and wide-separation giant planets with key molecular species such as CH 4 , H 2 O, CO, and NH 3 in disequilibrium. Our grid covers atmospheres with T eff ∈ [500 K, 1300 K], log g ∈ [3.0, 5.5] (cgs) and an eddy diffusion parameter of logK zz = 2,4 and 7 (cgs). We study the effect of different parameters within the grid on the temperature and composition profiles of our atmospheres. We discuss their effect on the near-infrared colors of our model atmospheres and the detectability of CH 4 , H 2 O, CO, and NH 3 using the JWST. We compare our models against existing MKO and Spitzer observations of brown dwarfs and verify the importance of disequilibrium chemistry for T dwarf atmospheres. Finally, we discuss how our models can help constrain the vertical structure and chemical composition of these atmospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

TESS Hunt for Young and Maturing Exoplanets (THYME). IV. Three Small Planets Orbiting a 120 Myr Old Star in the Pisces–Eridanus Stream

Young exoplanets can offer insight into the evolution of planetary atmospheres, compositions, and architectures. We present the discovery of the young planetary system TOI 451 (TIC 257605131, Gaia DR2 4844691297067063424). TOI 451 is a member of the 120 Myr old Pisces–Eridanus stream (Psc–Eri). We confirm membership in the stream with its kinematics, its lithium abundance, and the rotation and UV excesses of both TOI 451 and its wide-binary companion, TOI 451 B (itself likely an M-dwarf binary). We identified three candidate planets transiting in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite data and followed up the signals with photometry from Spitzer and ground-based telescopes. The system comprises three validated planets at periods of 1.9, 9.2, and 16 days, with radii of 1.9, 3.1, and 4.1 R {sub ⨂}, respectively. The host star is near-solar mass with V = 11.0 and H = 9.3 and displays an infrared excess indicative of a debris disk. The planets offer excellent prospects for transmission spectroscopy with the Hubble Space Telescope and the James Webb Space Telescope, providing the opportunity to study planetary atmospheres that may still be in the process of evolving.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection of an Atmosphere on a Rocky Exoplanet

We report the detection of an atmosphere on a rocky exoplanet, GJ 1132 b, which is similar to Earth in terms of size and density. The atmospheric transmission spectrum was detected using Hubble WFC3 measurements and shows spectral signatures of aerosol scattering, HCN, and CH{sub 4} in a low mean molecular weight atmosphere. We model the atmospheric loss process and conclude that GJ 1132 b likely lost the original H/He envelope, suggesting that the atmosphere that we detect has been reestablished. We explore the possibility of H{sub 2} mantle degassing, previously identified as a possibility for this planet by theoretical studies, and find that outgassing from ultra-reduced magma could produce the observed atmosphere. In this way we use the observed exoplanet transmission spectrum to gain insights into magma composition for a terrestrial planet. The detection of an atmosphere on this rocky planet raises the possibility that the numerous powerfully irradiated super-Earth planets, believed to be the evaporated cores of sub-Neptunes, may, under favorable circumstances, host detectable atmospheres.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unsupervised Machine Learning for Exploratory Data Analysis of Exoplanet Transmission Spectra

Abstract Transit spectroscopy is a powerful tool for decoding the chemical compositions of the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. In this paper, we focus on unsupervised techniques for analyzing spectral data from transiting exoplanets. After cleaning and validating the data, we demonstrate methods for: (i) initial exploratory data analysis, based on summary statistics (estimates of location and variability); (ii) exploring and quantifying the existing correlations in the data; (iii) preprocessing and linearly transforming the data to its principal components; (iv) dimensionality reduction and manifold learning; (v) clustering and anomaly detection; and (vi) visualization and interpretation of the data. To illustrate the proposed unsupervised methodology, we use a well-known public benchmark data set of synthetic transit spectra. We show that there is a high degree of correlation in the spectral data, which calls for appropriate low-dimensional representations. We explore a number of different techniques for such dimensionality reduction and identify several suitable options in terms of summary statistics, principal components, etc. We uncover interesting structures in the principal component basis, namely well-defined branches corresponding to different chemical regimes of the underlying atmospheres. We demonstrate that those branches can be successfully recovered with a K-means clustering algorithm in a fully unsupervised fashion. We advocate for lower-dimensional representations of the spectroscopic data in terms of the main principal components, in order to reveal the existing structure in the data and quickly characterize the chemical class of a planet.

Matchev, Konstantin T. (ORCID:0000000341829096)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes

Atmospheric retrievals are essential tools for interpreting exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectra, enabling quantitative constraints on the chemical composition, aerosol properties, and thermal structure of planetary atmospheres. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented spectral precision, resolution, and wavelength coverage, unlocking transformative insights into the formation, evolution, climate, and potential habitability of planetary systems. However, this opportunity is accompanied by challenges: modeling assumptions and unaccounted-for noise or signal sources can bias retrieval outcomes and their interpretation. To address these limitations, we introduce a Gaussian process (GP)-aided atmospheric retrieval framework that flexibly accounts for unmodeled features and correlated noise in exoplanet spectra. We validate this method on synthetic JWST observations, and show that GP-aided retrievals reduce bias in inferred abundances and better capture model–data mismatches than traditional approaches. We also introduce the concept of mean squared error to quantify the trade-off between bias and variance, arguing that this metric more accurately reflects retrieval performance than bias alone. We then reanalyze the NIRISS/SOSS JWST transmission spectrum of WASP-96 b, finding that GP-aided retrievals yield broader constraints on CO 2 and H 2 O, possibly alleviating tension between previous retrieval results and equilibrium predictions. Our GP framework provides precise and accurate constraints while highlighting regions where models fail to explain the data. As JWST matures and future facilities come online, a deeper understanding of the limitations of both data and models will be essential, and GP-enabled retrievals like the one presented here offer a principled path forward.

Rotman, Yoav [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Mornings and Evenings on Distant Worlds: A new Semianalytical Approach and Prospects with Transmission Spectroscopy

The technique of transmission spectroscopy—the variation of a planetary radius with wavelength due to opacity sources in the planet’s terminator region—has been one of the most successful in the characterization of exoplanet atmospheres to date, providing key insights into the composition and structure of these distant worlds. A common assumption made when using this technique, however, is that the variations are the same in the entire terminator region. In reality, the morning and evening terminators might have distinct temperature, pressure, and thus compositional profiles due to the inherent 3D nature of the planet, which would, in turn, give rise to different spectra on each side of it. Constraining those might be fundamental for our understanding of not only the weather patterns in these distant worlds but also the planetary formation signatures that might only be possible to extract once these features are well understood. Motivated by this physical picture, in this work, we perform a detailed study of the observational prospects of detecting this effect. We present an open-source semianalytical framework with which this information can be extracted directly from transit light curves and perform a detailed study of the prospects of detecting the effect with current missions, such as TESS, and upcoming ones, such as JWST. Our results show that these missions show great promise for the detection of this effect. Transmission spectroscopy studies with JWST, in particular, could provide spectra of each of the limbs, allowing us to convey 3D information previously accessible only via phase curves.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toward Complete Characterization: Prospects for Directly Imaging Transiting Exoplanets

High-contrast direct imaging of exoplanets can provide many important observables, including measurements of the orbit, spectra that probe the lower layers of the atmosphere, and phase variations of the planet, but cannot directly measure planet radius or mass. Our future understanding of directly imaged exoplanets will therefore rely on extrapolated models of planetary atmospheres and bulk composition, which need robust calibration. We estimate the population of extrasolar planets that could serve as calibrators for these models. Critically, this population of “standard planets” must be accessible to both direct imaging and the transit method, allowing for radius measurement. We show that the search volume of a direct imaging mission eventually overcomes the transit probability falloff with semimajor axis, so that as long as cold planets are not exceedingly rare, the population of transiting planets and directly imageable planets overlaps. Using current extrapolations of Kepler occurrence rates, we estimate that ∼8 standard planets could be characterized shortward of 800 nm with an ambitious future direct imaging mission like LUVOIR-A and several dozen could be detected at the V band. We show the design space that would expand the sample size and discuss the extent to which ground- and space-based surveys could detect this small but crucial population of planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental Constraints on Solid Nitride Phases in Rocky Mantles of Reduced Planets and Implications for Observable Atmosphere Compositions

Abstract Astronomical surveys have discovered thousands of transiting exoplanets, revealing that rocky planets are common in the galaxy. A planet's interior chemistry is frequently inferred by average density, described by mass‐radius (M‐R) relationships. However, M‐R relationships give rise to non‐unique interpretations of a planet's interior composition, an issue that limits our ability to characterize far‐away worlds. We present experimental and density functional theoretical results addressing the influence of an ultra‐reducing (oxygen‐poor) interior chemistry on rocky mantle phases and discuss the possible implications for atmospheric observables. We show that silicon carbide (SiC) and molecular nitrogen (N 2 ) react to form solid silicon nitride (γ‐Si 3 N 4 ) at high pressures and high temperatures in a laser‐heated diamond‐anvil cell, consistent with ab initio computations. Si 3 N 4 remains stable under extreme conditions and when quenched to ambient conditions. As SiC is a common compound found under very reducing conditions, these results indicate that nitrogen may form solid phases in an oxygen‐poor rocky planet. If, by sequestering nitrogen in a planet's mantle, the distribution of nitrogen between a planet's interior and atmosphere is altered (i.e., a nitrogen‐rich mantle and nitrogen‐poor atmosphere), these results indicate that there may be atmospheric observables connected to the mantle‐redox state of a rocky planet besides the oxygen‐containing phases ubiquitous in exoplanet literature.

Daviau, Kierstin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Building wet planets through high-pressure magma–hydrogen reactions

Close-in transiting sub-Neptunes are abundant in our Galaxy. Planetary interior models based on their observed radius–mass relationship suggest that sub-Neptunes contain a discernible amount of either hydrogen (dry planets) or water (wet planets) blanketing a core composed of rocks and metal. Water-rich sub-Neptunes have been believed to form farther from the star and then migrate inwards to their present orbits. Here we report experimental evidence of reactions between warm, dense hydrogen fluid and silicate melt that release silicon from the magma to form alloys and hydrides at high pressures. We found that oxygen liberated from the silicate melt reacts with hydrogen, producing an appreciable amount of water up to a few tens of weight per cent, which is much greater than previously predicted based on low-pressure ideal gas extrapolation. Consequently, these reactions can generate a spectrum of water contents in hydrogen-rich planets, with the potential to reach water-rich compositions for some sub-Neptunes, implying an evolutionary relationship between hydrogen-rich and water-rich planets. Therefore, detection of a large amount of water in exoplanet atmospheres may not be the optimal evidence for planet migration in the protoplanetary disk, calling into question the assumed link between composition and planet formation location.

Horn, H. W. [Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ (↗