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Challenges in the detection of gases in exoplanet atmospheres

Claims of detections of gases in exoplanet atmospheres often rely on comparisons between models including and excluding specific chemical species. However, the space of molecular combinations available for model construction is vast and highly degenerate. Only a limited subset of these combinations is typically explored for any given detection. As a result, apparent detections of trace gases risk being artefacts of incomplete modelling rather than robust identification of atmospheric constituents, especially in the low-signal-to-noise regime. Here, using the sub-Neptune K2-18 b as a case study, we show that recent biosignature claims vanish when the model space is expanded, with numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits. We demonstrate that the significance of a claimed detection relies on the choice of models being compared, and that model preference does not in itself imply the presence of a specific gas. In conclusion, we recommend treating model comparisons instead as relative adequacy tests, which should be supported by theoretical predictions and complementary metrics of statistical significance to attribute a signal to a particular gas.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Dispersion Leverage Coronagraph: a nulling coronagraph for use on primary objective grating telescopes

Here, we present the Dispersion Leverage Coronagraph (DLC), a variation of the Achromatic Interfero Coronagraph (AIC) that is designed for optical systems featuring large, dispersive primary objective gratings. DLC was originally designed for the Diffractive Interfero Coronagraph Exoplanet Resolver (DICER), a notional 20 m class infrared space telescope utilizing the enhanced one-dimensional angular resolution of large diffraction gratings to discover and characterize near-Earth exoplanets. Here we develop the theoretical foundation for DLC, and apply it to DICER as an example use case. We derive important properties of the DLC system, including focal plane transmission maps, stellar leakage, residual optical path difference tolerance, and pointing error/jitter considerations. Ultimately, we found that DLC effectively nulls an on-axis target across the entire spectrum in the focal plane, allowing for 2D/λ diffraction-limited imaging. It requires asymmetrical fine-guidance tolerances on pointing error/jitter. We work through a benchmark DICER design, explaining the need for a second disperser to reduce background from Zodiacal light, and showing that it could plausibly find and characterize ∼4 nearby, habitable exoplanets around Sun-like stars in a 7-year mission; about 30% of the habitable exoplanets within 8 pc were found in our simulation. The DLC may be useful for any application requiring extremely high-resolution, close companion spectroscopy.

AIC↗

Dark Matter halo parameters from overheated exoplanets via Bayesian hierarchical inference

Dark Matter (DM) can become captured, deposit annihilation energy, and hence increase the heat flow in exoplanets and brown dwarfs. Detecting such a DM-induced heating in a population of exoplanets in the inner kpc of the Milky Way thus provides potential sensitivity to the galactic DM halo parameters. We develop a Bayesian Hierarchical Model to investigate the feasibility of DM discovery with exoplanets and examine future prospects to recover the spatial distribution of DM in the Milky Way. We reconstruct from mock exoplanet datasets observable parameters such as exoplanet age, temperature, mass, and location, together with DM halo parameters, for representative choices of measurement uncertainty and the number of exoplanets detected. We find that detection of O(100) exoplanets in the inner Galaxy can yield quantitative information on the galactic DM density profile, under the assumption of 10% measurement uncertainty. Even as few as O(10) exoplanets can deliver meaningful sensitivities if the DM density and inner slope are sufficiently large.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multiscale astrobiology with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) presents an unprecedented opportunity to advance the search for astrobiologically relevant data across diverse astronomical environments. Through its extensive imaging capabilities, LSST will enhance our inventory of Solar System objects and assess their potential astrobiological conditions. Beyond the Solar System, LSST will survey billions of stars, contributing to the detection of exoplanets, characterizing planetary atmospheres at a zeroth-order level, identifying transient phenomena, and exploring conditions within habitable zones. In this paper, we highlight LSST’s unique contribution to astrobiology, complementing other missions and expanding the search for life beyond Earth in the coming decades.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Red Noise–based False Alarm Thresholds for Astrophysical Periodograms via Whittle’s Approximation to the Likelihood

Astronomers who search for periodic signals using Lomb–Scargle periodograms rely on false alarm level (FAL) estimates to identify statistically significant peaks. Although FALs are often calculated from white noise models, many astronomical time series suffer from red noise. Prewhitening is a statistical technique in which a continuum model is subtracted from the log power spectrum estimate, after which the observer can proceed with a white-noise treatment. Here we present a prewhitening-based method of calculating frequency-dependent FALs. We fit power laws and autoregressive models of order 1 to each Lomb–Scargle periodogram by minimizing the Whittle approximation to the negative log-likelihood (NLL), then calculate FALs based on the best-fit model power spectrum. Our technique is a novel extension of the Whittle NLL to datasets with uneven time sampling. We demonstrate FAL calculations using observations of α Cen B, GJ 581, HD 192310, synthetic data from the radial velocity (RV) fitting challenge, and Kepler observations of a differential rotator. The Kepler data analysis shows that only true rotation signals are detected by red noise FALs, while white noise FALs suggest all spurious peaks in the low-frequency range are significant. A high-frequency sinusoid injected into α Cen B logR$'$ HK observations exceeds the 1% red noise FAL despite having only 8.9% of the power of the dominant rotation signal. In a periodogram of HD 192310 RVs, peaks associated with differential rotation and planets are detected against the 5% red noise FAL without iterative model fitting or subtraction. The software for calculating red noise–based FALs is available on GitHub.

Astrostatistics (1882)↗

HD 143811 AB b: A Directly Imaged Planet Orbiting a Spectroscopic Binary in Sco-Cen

We present confirmation of HD 143811 AB b, a substellar companion to spectroscopic binary HD 143811 AB through direct imaging with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) and Keck NIRC2. HD 143811 AB was observed as a part of the GPI Exoplanet Survey in 2016 and 2019 and is a member of the Sco-Cen star formation region. The exoplanet is detected ∼430 mas from the host star by GPI. With two GPI epochs and one from Keck/NIRC2 in 2022, we confirm through common proper motion analysis that the object is bound to its host star. We derive an orbit with a semimajor axis of $64^{+32}_{-14}$ au and eccentricity $0.23^{+0.24}_{-0.16}$. Spectral analysis of the GPI H-band spectrum and NIRC2 L′ photometry provides additional proof that this object is a substellar companion. We compare the spectrum of HD 143811 AB b to PHOENIX stellar models and Exo-Radioactive-Convective Equilibrium Model (REM) exoplanet atmosphere models and find that Exo-REM models provide the best fits to the data. From the Exo-REM models, we derive an effective temperature of $1042^{+178}_{-132}$ K for the planet and translate the derived luminosity of the planet to a mass of 5.6 ± 1.1 M Jup assuming hot-start evolutionary models. HD 143811 AB b is the first directly imaged planet around a binary that is not on an ultrawide orbit. Future characterization of this object will shed light on the formation of planets around binary star systems.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Evolutionary and functional relationships between plant and microbial C 1 metabolism in terrestrial ecosystems

One-carbon (C 1 ) metabolism, centered on the universal methyl donor S-adenosyl methionine (SAM), plays critical roles in biosynthesis, redox regulation, and stress responses across plants and microbes. A recently proposed photosynthetic C 1 pathway links SAM methyl groups directly to RuBisCO-mediated CO 2 assimilation and integrates with nitrogen and sulfur metabolism. Light-dependent SAM synthesis may regulate the methylation of biopolymers and specialized metabolites and help mitigate photorespiratory stress under elevated temperature and drought. Phylogenetic analysis of two core enzymes suggests evolutionary continuity from methylotrophic microbes to land plants, supporting microbial origins via endosymbiotic gene transfer. Beyond intracellular roles, C 1 metabolism drives biosphere–atmosphere exchange via gases such as methane, methanol, formic acid, and formaldehyde, and numerous specialized volatiles synthesized through SAM methylation. S-methylmethionine, a mobile C 1 metabolite, may mediate phloem transport of reduced sulfur, nitrogen, and methyl groups, linking above- and belowground C 1 cycling in plants. Advances in real-time gas sensing now allow the high-frequency quantification of C 1 fluxes from leaves, stems, and soils, highlighting C 1 metabolism as a critical and underrecognized component of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycling. Given its microbial ancestry and the production of diverse volatile biosignatures, C 1 metabolism may also offer unique insights into life's origins and biosignature detection on exoplanets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Photochemical Phosphorus-Hydrogen-Oxygen Network for Hydrogen-dominated Exoplanet Atmospheres

Due to the detection of phosphine (PH 3 ) in the solar system gas giants Jupiter and Saturn, PH 3 has long been suggested to be detectable in exosolar substellar atmospheres too. However, to date, direct detection of phosphine has proven to be elusive in exoplanet atmosphere surveys. We construct an updated phosphorus-hydrogen-oxygen (PHO) photochemical network suitable for the simulation of gas giant hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Using this network, we examine PHO photochemistry in hot Jupiter and warm Neptune exoplanet atmospheres at solar and enriched metallicities. Our results show for HD 189733b-like hot Jupiters that HOPO, PO, and P 2 are typically the dominant P carriers at pressures important for transit and emission spectra, rather than PH 3 . For GJ1214b-like warm Neptune atmospheres our results suggest that at solar metallicity PH 3 is dominant in the absence of photochemistry, but is generally not in high abundance for all other chemical environments. At 10 and 100 times solar, small oxygenated phosphorus molecules such as HOPO and PO dominate for both thermochemical and photochemical simulations. The network is able to reproduce well the observed PH 3 abundances on Jupiter and Saturn. Despite progress in improving the accuracy of the PHO network, large portions of the reaction rate data remain with approximate, uncertain, or missing values, which could change the conclusions of the current study significantly. Improving understanding of the kinetics of phosphorus-bearing chemical reactions will be a key undertaking for astronomers aiming to detect phosphine and other phosphorus species in both rocky and gaseous exoplanetary atmospheres in the near future.

atmospheric composition↗

Search for Dark Matter Ionization on the Night Side of Jupiter with Cassini

We present a new search for dark matter (DM) using planetary atmospheres. We point out that annihilating DM in planets can produce ionizing radiation, which can lead to excess production of ionospheric H 3 + . We apply this search strategy to the night side of Jupiter near the equator. The night side has zero solar irradiation, and low latitudes are sufficiently far from ionizing auroras, leading to a low-background search. We use data on ionospheric H 3 + emission collected three hours either side of Jovian midnight, during its flyby in 2000, and set novel constraints on the DM-nucleon scattering cross section down to about 10 − 38 cm 2 . We also highlight that DM atmospheric ionization may be detected in Jovian exoplanets using future high-precision measurements of planetary spectra. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TOI-2374 b and TOI-3071 b: two metal-rich sub-Saturns well within the Neptunian desert

ABSTRACT We report the discovery of two transiting planets detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), TOI-2374 b and TOI-3071 b, orbiting a K5V and an F8V star, respectively, with periods of 4.31 and 1.27 d, respectively. We confirm and characterize these two planets with a variety of ground-based and follow-up observations, including photometry, precise radial velocity monitoring and high-resolution imaging. The planetary and orbital parameters were derived from a joint analysis of the radial velocities and photometric data. We found that the two planets have masses of (57 ± 4) M⊕ or (0.18 ± 0.01) MJ, and (68 ± 4) M⊕ or (0.21 ± 0.01) MJ, respectively, and they have radii of (6.8 ± 0.3) R⊕ or (0.61 ± 0.03) RJ and (7.2 ± 0.5) R⊕ or (0.64 ± 0.05) RJ, respectively. These parameters correspond to sub-Saturns within the Neptunian desert, both planets being hot and highly irradiated, with Teq ≈ 745 K and Teq ≈ 1812 K, respectively, assuming a Bond albedo of 0.5. TOI-3071 b has the hottest equilibrium temperature of all known planets with masses between 10 and 300 M⊕ and radii less than 1.5 RJ. By applying gas giant evolution models we found that both planets, especially TOI-3071 b, are very metal-rich. This challenges standard formation models which generally predict lower heavy-element masses for planets with similar characteristics. We studied the evolution of the planets’ atmospheres under photoevaporation and concluded that both are stable against evaporation due to their large masses and likely high metallicities in their gaseous envelopes.

Hacker, Alejandro (ORCID:0009000994520181)↗

Building wet planets through high-pressure magma–hydrogen reactions

Close-in transiting sub-Neptunes are abundant in our Galaxy. Planetary interior models based on their observed radius–mass relationship suggest that sub-Neptunes contain a discernible amount of either hydrogen (dry planets) or water (wet planets) blanketing a core composed of rocks and metal. Water-rich sub-Neptunes have been believed to form farther from the star and then migrate inwards to their present orbits. Here we report experimental evidence of reactions between warm, dense hydrogen fluid and silicate melt that release silicon from the magma to form alloys and hydrides at high pressures. We found that oxygen liberated from the silicate melt reacts with hydrogen, producing an appreciable amount of water up to a few tens of weight per cent, which is much greater than previously predicted based on low-pressure ideal gas extrapolation. Consequently, these reactions can generate a spectrum of water contents in hydrogen-rich planets, with the potential to reach water-rich compositions for some sub-Neptunes, implying an evolutionary relationship between hydrogen-rich and water-rich planets. Therefore, detection of a large amount of water in exoplanet atmospheres may not be the optimal evidence for planet migration in the protoplanetary disk, calling into question the assumed link between composition and planet formation location.

Horn, H. W. [Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ (↗

Dark kinetic heating of exoplanets and brown dwarfs

Dark kinetic heating of neutron stars has been previously studied as a promising dark matter detection avenue. Kinetic heating occurs when dark matter is sped up to relativistic speeds in the gravitational well of high-escape velocity objects, and deposits kinetic energy after becoming captured by the object, thereby increasing its temperature. We show that dark kinetic heating can be significant even in objects with low-escape velocities, such as exoplanets and brown dwarfs, increasing the discovery potential of such searches. This can occur if there is a long-range dark force, creating a “dark escape velocity”, leading to heating rates substantially larger than those expected from neutron stars. We consequently set constraints on dark sector parameters using Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer and JWST data on Super-Jupiter WISE 0855-0714, and map out future sensitivity to the dark matter scattering cross section below 10 −40 cm 2 . We compare dark kinetic heating rates of other lower escape velocity objects such as the Earth, Sun, and white dwarfs, finding complementary kinetic heating signals are possible depending on particle physics parameters.

Astrophysics↗

Hunting for Polluted White Dwarfs and Other Treasures with Gaia XP Spectra and Unsupervised Machine Learning

White dwarfs (WDs) polluted by exoplanetary material provide the unprecedented opportunity to directly observe the interiors of exoplanets. However, spectroscopic surveys are often limited by brightness constraints, and WDs tend to be very faint, making detections of large populations of polluted WDs difficult. In this paper, we aim to increase considerably the number of WDs with multiple metals in their atmospheres. Using 96,134 WDs with Gaia DR3 BP/RP (XP) spectra, we constructed a 2D map using an unsupervised machine-learning technique called Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) to organize the WDs into identifiable spectral regions. The polluted WDs are among the distinct spectral groups identified in our map. We have shown that this selection method could potentially increase the number of known WDs with five or more metal species in their atmospheres by an order of magnitude. Such systems are essential for characterizing exoplanet diversity and geology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Optimal celestial bodies for dark matter detection

A wide variety of celestial bodies have been considered as dark matter detectors. Which stands the best chance of delivering the discovery of dark matter? Which is the most powerful dark matter detector? We investigate a range of objects, including the Sun, Earth, Jupiter, Brown Dwarfs, White Dwarfs, Neutron Stars, Stellar populations, and Exoplanets. We quantify how different objects are optimal dark matter detectors in different regimes by deconstructing some of the in-built assumptions in these search sensitivities, including observation potential and particle model assumptions. We find new constraints and future sensitivities across a range of dark matter annihilation final states. We quantify mediator properties leading to detectable celestial-body energy injection or Standard Model fluxes, and show how different objects can be expected to deliver corroborating signals. We discuss different search strategies, their opportunities and limitations, and the interplay of regimes where different celestial objects are optimal dark matter detectors. Deconstructing the assumptions of these searches leads us to point out a new search using the Galactic center stellar population that can provide greater sensitivity to the dark matter-nucleon scattering cross section than the Sun, despite being significantly further away in our Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A high internal heat flux and large core in a warm Neptune exoplanet

Interactions between exoplanetary atmospheres and internal properties have long been proposed to be drivers of the inflation mechanisms of gaseous planets and apparent atmospheric chemical disequilibrium conditions. However, transmission spectra of exoplanets have been limited in their ability to observationally confirm these theories owing to the limited wavelength coverage of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and inferences of single molecules, mostly H 2 O. Here, in this work, we present the panchromatic transmission spectrum of the approximately 750 K, low-density, Neptune-sized exoplanet WASP-107b using a combination of HST Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) and JWST Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI). From this spectrum, we detect spectroscopic features resulting from H 2 O (21σ), CH 4 (5σ), CO (7σ), CO 2 (29σ), SO 2 (9σ) and NH 3 (6σ). The presence of these molecules enables constraints on the atmospheric metal enrichment (M/H is 10–18× solar), vertical mixing strength (log 10 K zz = 8.4–9.0 cm 2 s -1 ) and internal temperature (>345 K). The high internal temperature is suggestive of tidally driven inflation4 acting on a Neptune-like internal structure, which can naturally explain the large radius and low density of the planet. These findings suggest that eccentricity-driven tidal heating is a critical process governing atmospheric chemistry and interior-structure inferences for most of the cool (<1,000 K) super-Earth-to-Saturn-mass exoplanet population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The possibility of hydrogen-water demixing in Uranus, Neptune, K2-18 b and TOI-270 d

Context. The internal structures of Uranus and Neptune remain unknown. In addition, sub-Neptunes are now thought to be the most common type of exoplanets. Improving our understanding of the physical processes that govern the interiors of such planets is therefore essential. Phase separation between planetary constituents may occur, in particular, hydrogen-water immiscibility in cold, water-rich intermediate-mass planets. Aims. We assess whether hydrogen-water demixing could occur in Uranus, Neptune, K2-18 b and TOI-270 d, and investigate its effect on the planetary evolution and inferred internal structure. Methods. We couple planetary evolution models with recent ab initio calculations of the hydrogen-water phase diagram, allowing for temperature shifts to account for uncertainties in miscibility gaps. Results. We find that demixing may occur and could lead to a complete depletion of water in the outermost regions of Uranus and Neptune. Temperature offsets of up to 1100 K lead to a depleted region comprising as much as 16% of the planet’s mass, and an increase in planetary radius by nearly 20%. For K2-18 b, our models suggest that hydrogen-water demixing is ongoing and may explain the absence of water features in its JWST spectrum. A temperature offset of 500 K is required to get a complete depletion of water in the atmosphere of K2-18b. TOI-270d may also have experienced hydrogen-water demixing. When applying a similar temperature offset on the phase diagram as for K2-18 b, we find a partial depletion of water in the atmosphere of TOI-270 d, consistent with JWST’s detection of water. Conclusions. Hydrogen-water immiscibility may play a key role in shaping the structure and evolution of both Solar System giant planets like Uranus and Neptune, and cold/temperate exoplanets such as K2-18 b and TOI-270 d. Accounting for such internal processes is crucial to accurately interpret atmospheric observations from current (e.g., JWST) and upcoming (e.g., ARIEL) missions.

planets and satellites: composition↗

NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission: Simulating the Impact of Stellar Photospheric Heterogeneity and Its Correction

Stellar photospheric heterogeneity is a dominant astrophysical systematic impacting exoplanet transmission spectroscopy. NASA’s Pandora SmallSat Mission is designed to address this challenge through contemporaneous visible-band photometry and near-infrared spectroscopy of exoplanet host stars. Here, we present an end-to-end simulation study quantifying Pandora’s ability to infer stellar photospheric properties and correct stellar contamination using out-of-transit observations. We construct eight representative stellar activity scenarios and generate 160 simulated Pandora datasets, incorporating time-dependent stellar spectra, instrument response, and noise. Given accurate models, Bayesian retrievals of joint visible photometry (0.4–0.7 μm) and near-infrared spectroscopy (0.9–1.6 μm, R ≈ 120) recover photospheric temperatures with typical uncertainties of ≈30 K, with no significant bias. Models with two spectral components (i.e., a quiescent photosphere and spots) are strongly favored in 95% of cases; one-component models are preferred when true spot filling factors fall below a detection threshold of ≈0.3%. We propagate the true and inferred stellar parameters to compute true, inferred, and residual contamination signals under physically motivated spot geometries. For simple spot distributions, contamination signals of 10 2 –10 3 ppm are reduced to ≲10 ppm—well below Pandora’s expected transmission spectroscopy precision (30–100 ppm). For more complex spot distributions, geometric degeneracies limit deterministic corrections, leaving residual contamination at the 10 3 ppm level that must be mitigated using additional constraints, such as spot-crossing events and joint stellar–planetary retrievals of transmission spectra. These results define regimes in which stellar contamination can be corrected from stellar observations alone and show how Pandora stellar observations can identify cases where additional information is required.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Magnetohydrodynamic simulations preliminarily predict the habitability and radio emission of TRAPPIST-1e

TRAPPIST-1e, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone of the nearby M dwarf TRAPPIST-1, may experience magnetospheric responses that vary with stellar space weather, which could potentially influence both its habitability and radio emissions. Our objective is to investigate how different Earth-like magnetospheric configurations of TRAPPIST-1e – specifically variations in dipolar magnetic field strength and axial tilt – respond to diverse stellar space weather conditions, including events analogous to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and to assess their implications for potential habitability and expected radio emissions. We conducted 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the TRAPPIST-1e system using the PLUTO code in spherical coordinates. The planetary magnetic field was modelled as dipolar, with equatorial strengths from Earth-like to several times stronger. The dipole axis spans a representative range of axial tilts. We investigate four stellar wind environments, from sub-Alfvénic flow to CME-like disturbances. Planetary shielding was quantified based on the magnetopause standoff distance, and radio powers were estimated via empirical scaling laws. Our simulations show that both shielding and radio power depend strongly on the magnetic configuration. Stronger fields increase protection, while larger tilts reduce it. Radio power increases with both field strength and tilt across all wind regimes. An Earth-like magnetic field can provide effective shielding even under intense CMEs, whereas high tilts require stronger fields. Predicted radio powers reach ~10 20 erg s −1 during CMEs, making bursts from close-in, magnetised planets more detectable. However, for TRAPPIST-1e, the maximum cyclotron frequency lies below the Earth’s ionospheric cutoff (~10 MHz), making ground-based detection currently infeasible.

Sun: magnetic fields↗