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DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Spatial Resolution in a High-Fidelity Capacity Expansion Model: An ERCOT Case Study

Capacity expansion models are important tools in examining the evolution of the electric power sector. Embedded in these tools are many modeling choices with consequential impacts on computational burden and associated analysis. In this study, we adjust the spatial resolution of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) to understand the implications of higher-fidelity modeling on energy system projections and model solve times. The native ReEDS regions capture the contiguous United States in 134 balancing areas whereas the regions in the higher-resolution version are defined by over 3,000 U.S. counties. Using both resolutions, we conduct a case study of the Texas Interconnection (The Electric Reliability Council of Texas [ERCOT]) to explore differences in model projections and to inform appropriate applications of high spatial resolution in a large-scale, applied capacity expansion model.

county↗

DOE OSTI2025

Atomistic Simulations of Thermal and Chemical Expansions of PrNi x Co 1‐x O 3‐δ Accelerated by Machine Learning Potentials

The electrodes and solid-state electrolytes in protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCECs) experience significant lattice expansions when exposed to high steam concentrations at elevated temperatures. In this paper, phonon calculations based on a new machine learning potential (MLP) are employed to elucidate the volume expansions of the proton-conducting PrNi x Co 1-x O 3-δ (PNC) lattices, manifested under a combined influence of oxygen vacancies (V$^{\cdot\cdot}_O$ ) and proton uptake (OH$^{\cdot}_O$ ) in the bulk at varying Ni/Co occupancies. It is revealed that the Ni/Co occupancy contributes to thermal and chemical expansions differently, where thermal expansions are related to Co occupancy. In contrast, chemical expansions are more closely associated with the Ni occupancy. Both V$^{\cdot\cdot}_O$ and OH$^{\cdot}_O$ lead to higher thermal expansions when compared to the pristine PNC. The temperature increase will negatively impact the hydration-induced chemical expansions. For combined thermal and chemical expansions, it is predicted that the strategies that boost the PCEC's electrochemical performance may harm the electrode–electrolyte interfacial stability, when the Ni occupancy is high, due to severe chemical expansions. Mitigating chemical expansions of the Ni-abundant PNC will benefit the interfacial stability. Finally, the presented computational methods for phonon calculations, based on emerging machine learning interatomic potential techniques are anticipated to have a lasting impact on future PCEC development.

computational prediction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Shrub Expansion Can Counteract Carbon Losses From Warming Tundra

Arctic warming is causing substantial compositional, structural, and functional changes in tundra vegetation including shrub and tree-line expansion and densification. However, predicting the carbon trajectories of the changing Arctic is challenging due to interacting feedbacks between vegetation composition and structure, and surface characteristics. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the current-date to 2100 projected surface energy fluxes, soil carbon pools, and CO 2 fluxes to different shrub expansion rates under future emission scenarios (intermediate—RCP4.5, and high—RCP8.5) using the Arctic-focused configuration of E3SM Land Model (ELM). We focus on Trail Valley Creek (TVC), an upland tundra site in the western Canadian Arctic, which is experiencing shrub densification and expansion. We find that shrub expansion did not significantly alter the modeled surface energy and water budgets. However, the carbon balance was sensitive to shrub expansion, which drove higher rates of carbon sequestration as a consequence of higher shrubification rates. Thus, at low shrub expansion rates, the site would become a carbon source, especially under RCP8.5, due to higher temperatures, which deepen the active layer and enhance soil respiration. At higher shrub expansion rates, TVC would become a net CO 2 sink under both Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios due to higher shrub productivity outweighing temperature-driven respiration increase. Our simulations highlight the effect of shrub expansion on Arctic ecosystem carbon fluxes and stocks. We predict that at TVC, shrubification rate would interact with climate change intensity to determine whether the site would become a carbon sink or source under projected future climate.

Yazbeck, Theresia [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus,↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pion-nucleon scattering in baryon chiral perturbation theory combined with the 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansion

This work implements the combined baryon chiral perturbation theory (BChPT) and 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansions for pion-nucleon elastic scattering. The effective theory is based on the baryon sector dynamical spin-flavor 𝑆⁢𝑈⁡(4) symmetry emergent in the large 𝑁 𝑐 limit, whose breaking is controlled by the 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansion. The noncommutativity of the chiral and 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansions in unitarity corrections (loops) requires a linking of both expansions. As it was shown in the case of baryon masses and currents, the natural linking is the 𝜉 expansion, in which 𝒪⁡(𝑝) = 𝒪⁡(1/𝑁 𝑐 ) = 𝒪⁡(𝜉). The spin-flavor symmetry requires that the ground state baryons span an 𝑆⁢𝑈⁡(4) symmetric irreducible representation which implies that in particular 𝑁 and Δ are active degrees of freedom in the effective theory. The scattering amplitude is expanded to the next-to-next-to leading order in the 𝜉 expansion, corresponding to the one-loop contributions with the leading-order Lagrangian. The results are given for generic 𝑁 𝑐 in order to demonstrate the consistency of the framework. The spin-flavor symmetry plays a central role in maintaining the consistency of the effective theory with respect to the 1/𝑁 𝑐 expansion. This consistency manifests itself in an improvement in the convergence of the low energy expansion with respect to the case of the ordinary BChPT without an explicit dynamical Δ, which is known to be inconsistent with the constraints of 𝑁 𝑐 scaling. Fits to the 𝜋⁢𝑁 → 𝜋⁢𝑁, 𝑆, 𝑃, and 𝐷 partial wave amplitudes from the SAID data base are finally used to test the framework and to determine the energy range of its applicability.

Jayakodige, D. [Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA (United↗

DOE OSTI2026

Anomalous lattice expansion of bcc Ta in helium-loaded diamond anvil cells

Anomalous lattice expansion of bcc Ta is observed in helium-loaded diamond anvil cell (DAC) experiments near 6 GPa and above 400 K, while co-loaded W, Mo, and Au exhibit normal thermal expansion. The Ta volume expansion increases with temperature, reaching ~14% near 650 K before plateauing, and is largely retained after recovery to ambient conditions. Time-resolved measurements at 500 K reveal progressive expansion over several hours, consistent with gradual, thermally activated He incorporation. The largely retained expansion during subsequent cooling and holding at 400 K indicates that the incorporated He is predominantly kinetically trapped. The data reveal two distinct regimes: below ~550 K, modest and spatially uniform expansion consistent with interstitial He trapping at isolated, randomly distributed vacancies; above ~550 K, He-vacancy cluster growth producing dramatically larger expansion, peak broadening, and a core–shell microstructure revealed by micron-resolution X-ray diffraction mapping. These results demonstrate that He is not always a passive pressure medium in DAC experiments and reveal a previously unrecognized regime of He-mediated lattice modification in Ta, complementing conventional ion-implantation studies relevant to nuclear and fusion structural materials.

Diamond anvil cell↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-temperature structure, elasticity, and thermal expansion of ε-ZrH 1.8

Zirconium hydride is a promising candidate material for nuclear microreactor applications as a solid-state moderator component, owing to its favorable neutronics properties and good thermal stability over other metal hydrides. Here, in the present work, the crystal structure, thermal expansion, and elastic properties of the hydrogen-rich ε phase hydride were measured at elevated temperatures in the range 300–900 K. Samples were prepared by direct hydriding Zircaloy-4 metal – a nuclear-grade zirconium alloy. Room-temperature lattice parameters agree well with those reported from literature for unalloyed zirconium hydride and fall within an observed quadratic H-content dependence. The coefficients of thermal expansion, determined from lattice expansion and dilatometry, agree well within our work but were about 30 % lower than those reported by others for unalloyed hydrides. Density functional theory-based molecular dynamics simulations were used to compare with thermal expansion and elasticity measurements. Results showed lattice parameter temperature dependence and slope of thermal expansion align with those from measurements. Based on diffraction scans at select temperatures, ε phase remained stable in air up to at least 770 K. Likewise, dilatometry showed smooth thermal expansion up to the thermal decomposition temperature around 950 K. The precise decomposition temperature was not determined via diffraction due to sparse scanning. The complete elastic property measurements were gathered for ε-phase Ziracloy-4 hydride for the first time. Young's modulus was lower compared to the metal and δ hydride phases. High-temperature elasticity measurements were limited to <350 K due to acoustic dissipation effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Parallel expansion of a fuel pellet plasmoid

The problem of the assimilation of a cryogenic fuel pellet injected into a hot plasma is considered. Due to the transparency to ambient particles of the plasmoid, the localised region of high-density plasma created by ionisation of the ablated pellet material, electrons reach a ‘quasiequilibrium’ (QE) state which is characterised by a steady-state on the fastest collisional time scale. The simplified electron kinetic equation of the QE state is solved. Taking a velocity moment of the higher-order electron kinetic equation, which is valid on the expansion time scale, permits a fluid closure, yielding an evolution equation for the macroscopic parameters describing the QE distribution function. In contrast to the Braginskii equations, the closure does not require that electrons have a short mean free path compared with the size of density perturbations, and permits an anisotropic and highly non-Maxwellian distribution function. As the QE distribution function accounts for both trapped and passing electrons, the self-consistent electric potential that causes the expansion can be properly described, in contrast to earlier models of pellet plasmoid expansion with an unbounded potential. The plasmoid expansion is simulated using both a Vlasov model and a cold-fluid model for the ions. During the expansion plasmoid ions and electrons obtain nearly equal amounts of energy; as hot ambient electrons provide this energy in the form of collisional heating of plasmoid electrons, the expansion of a pellet plasmoid is expected to be a potent mechanism for the transfer of energy from electrons to ions on a time scale shorter than that of ion–electron thermalisation.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Significantly Promoting the Thermal Conductivity and Machinability of Negative Thermal Expansion Alloy via In Situ Precipitation of Copper Networks

Rapid advancements in electronic devices yield an urgent demand for high-performance electronic packaging materials with high thermal conductivity, low thermal expansion, and great mechanical properties. However, it is a great challenge for current design philosophies to fulfill all the requirements simultaneously. Here, an effective strategy is proposed for significantly promoting the thermal conductivity and machinability of negative thermal expansion alloy (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 through eutectic precipitation of copper networks. The eutectic dual-phase alloy exhibits an isotropic chips-matched thermal expansion coefficient and a thermal conductivity enhancement exceeding 200% compared with (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 , along with an ultimate compressive strength of 550 MPa. The addition of copper reorganizes the composition of (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 , which smooths the magnetic transition and shifts it toward higher temperature, resulting in linear low thermal expansion in a wide temperature range. The highly fine eutectic copper lamellae construct high thermal conductivity networks within (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 , serving as highways for heat transfer electrons and phonons. The in situ forming of eutectic copper lamellae also facilitates the mechanical properties by enhancing interfacial bonding and bearing additional stress after yielding of (Zr,Nb)Fe 2 . This work provides a novel strategy for promoting thermal conductivity and mechanical properties of negative thermal expansion alloys via eutectic precipitation of copper networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Insights into the Thermal Expansion of Amorphous Polymers

Here, we investigated the thermal expansion of amorphous polystyrene (PS) and poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) homopolymers using the temperature dependence of spatial electron-density correlations. The strong and broad X-ray interference maxima arising from inter- and intramolecular correlation distances were distinct, maintaining their shape during the heating of the samples to 250 °C. Three maxima characteristic of electron density correlations between the backbones, substituents along the chain, and repeat-units were observed. A remarkable temperature dependence was identified in the largest correlation distances arising from the intermolecular interactions. Based on the temperature dependence of the correlation distances, the coefficients of molecular expansion were very close to the coefficients of thermal expansion. This study provides a simple yet accurate way to correlate macroscopic volume expansions with the molecular expansion obtained from wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Node Distortions in UiO-66 Inform Negative Thermal Expansion Mechanisms: Kinetic Effects, Frustration, and Lattice Hysteresis

In metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) the interplay between the dynamics of individual components and how these are constrained by the extended lattice can yield unusual emergent phenomena. For the archetypal Zr-MOF, UiO-66, we explore the cooperative dynamics of a Zr-node transformation that gives rise to negative thermal expansion (NTE). Here, using in situ synchrotron X-ray scattering, with powder diffraction and pair distribution function (PDF) analyses, we identify lattice hysteresis and a thermal ramp-rate-dependence of the thermal expansion. Specifically, kinetic trapping of distorted node states formed at high temperature, leads to broad variability in the apparent thermal expansion which ranges from large positive to large negative thermal expansion with coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) from +45 to –80 × 10 –6 K –1 . Time-resolved relaxation studies at selected temperatures suggest that when equilibrated UiO-66 is intrinsically NTE, with a CTE of –35 × 10 –6 K –1 . Kinetic trapping of the node-distorted state following high temperature activation has broad implications for characterization and applications of these Zr-MOFs; the nonequilibrium node state depends on the thermal history of the sample with quench vs slow cooling likely to impact gas binding, pore volume, and accessible catalytic sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lithium Growth on Alloying Substrates and Effect on Volumetric Expansion

The widespread implementation of next-generation Li metal anodes is limited, in part, due to the formation of dendritic and/or mossy electrodeposits during cycling. These morphologies can lead to battery failure due to the formation of short circuits and significant volumetric expansion at the anode. One strategy to control the electrodeposition of Li metal is to use lithiophilic materials at the anode. Here, we evaluate the impact of Ag and Au on the early stages of Li metal electrodeposition and cycling. The alloying substrates decrease the voltage for Li reduction and improve Li wetting/adhesion. We probe volumetric expansion directly through dilatometry measurements and find that the degree of volumetric expansion is less when lithium is cycled on an alloying substrate compared to a non-alloying substrate (Cu). Dilatometry experiments reveal that Au has the least amount of volumetric expansion and coin cell cycling experiments indicate that Ag yields more stable cycling compared to Au or Cu. The evaluation of in situ cross-sectional images of cycled coin cells shows that Ag has the lowest volumetric expansion in a coin cell format.

alloys↗

DOE OSTI2025

Classical eikonal from Magnus expansion

In a classical scattering problem, the classical eikonal is defined as the generator of the canonical transformation that maps in-states to out-states. It can be regarded as the classical limit of the log of the quantum S-matrix. In a classical analog of the Born approximation in quantum mechanics, the classical eikonal admits an expansion in oriented tree graphs, where oriented edges denote retarded/advanced worldline propagators. The Magnus expansion, which takes the log of a time-ordered exponential integral, offers an efficient method to compute the coefficients of the tree graphs to all orders. We exploit a Hopf algebra structure behind the Magnus expansion to develop a fast algorithm which can compute the tree coefficients up to the 12th order (over half a million trees) in less than an hour. In a relativistic setting, our methods can be applied to the post-Minkowskian (PM) expansion for gravitational binaries in the worldline formalism. We demonstrate the methods by computing the 3PM eikonal and find agreement with previous results based on amplitude methods. Importantly, the Magnus expansion yields a finite eikonal, while the naïve eikonal based on the time-symmetric propagator is infrared-divergent from 3PM on.

Black Holes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probing Hydrogen-Bond Anharmonicity in Cocrystals with Colossal Thermal Expansion

Organic cocrystals with sizable anisotropic thermal expansion (TE) are attractive building blocks for thermally responsive soft actuators. Such materials often display intermolecular H-bonding, whose thermal strength fluctuations are frequently overlooked if displacements and/or conformational changes are visible during TE. In this work, we employed variable-temperature single-crystal synchrotron diffraction to investigate the linear expansion coefficients of two organic cocrystals, 1 and 2, which exhibit colossal thermal expansivity exceeding 140 MK –1 . Despite such pronounced TE, solid-state 2 H and 13 C NMR experiments show no evidence of fast internal reorientations or large-amplitude molecular displacement during expansion. Although nondirectional π–π stacking dominates the colossal TE, our results indicate that hydrogen bonds play a non-negligible role in the anisotropic response. Molecular dynamics simulations reveal a temperature-dependent broadening of H-bond length distributions, which arises from the increased thermal sampling of an anharmonic potential energy surface. Our data support an expansion mechanism based on cooperativity in π-π interactions, accompanied by thermal softening and fluctuation-driven stretching of directional hydrogen bonds in these molecular solids. This mechanism underscores the significance of directional interactions in organic cocrystals, which is a key factor in the design of organic thermoresponsive crystalline materials.

Hernández-Morales, Ernesto A. [Univ. Nacional Auto↗

DOE OSTI2024

Topography Controls Variability in Circumpolar Permafrost Thaw Pond Expansion

Abstract One of the most conspicuous signals of climate change in high‐latitude tundra is the expansion of ice wedge thermokarst pools. These small but abundant water features form rapidly in depressions caused by the melting of ice wedges (i.e., meter‐scale bodies of ice embedded within the top of the permafrost). Pool expansion impacts subsequent thaw rates through a series of complex positive and negative feedbacks which play out over timescales of decades and may accelerate carbon release from the underlying sediments. Although many local observations of ice wedge thermokarst pool expansion have been documented, analyses at continental to pan‐Arctic scales have been rare, hindering efforts to project how strongly this process may impact the global carbon cycle. Here we present one of the most geographically extensive and temporally dense records yet compiled of recent pool expansion, in which changes to pool area from 2008 to 2020 were quantified through satellite‐image analysis at 27 survey areas (measuring 10–35 km 2 each, or 400 km 2 in total) dispersed throughout the circumpolar tundra. The results revealed instances of rapid expansion at 44% (15%) of survey areas. Considered alone, the extent of departures from historical mean air temperatures did not account for between site variation in rates of change to pool area. Pool growth was most clearly associated with upland (i.e., hilly) terrain and elevated silt content at soil depths greater than one meter. These findings suggest that, at short time scales, pedologic and geomorphologic conditions may exert greater control on pool dynamics in the warming Arctic than spatial variability in the rate of air temperature increases.

Abolt, C. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Giant Graviton Expansion from Bubbling Geometry: Discreteness from Quantized Geometry

The superconformal index of half-BPS states in N = 4 supersymmetric Yang-Mills with gauge group U⁡(N) admits an expansion in terms of giant gravitons, J N (q) = J ∞ ⁡(q)⁢Σ$^{∞}_{m=0}$ q m⁢N ⁢ J^ m ⁡(q), where m is the number of giant gravitons and J ∞ ⁡(q) is the graviton index. The expansion can be viewed as the implementation of trace relations for finite N. We derive this expansion directly in supergravity from the class of half-BPS solutions due to Lin, Lunin, and Maldacena in type IIB supergravity. The moduli space of these configurations can be quantized using covariant quantization methods. We show how this quantization leads to the precise expression for the expansion in terms of giant gravitons. Our proposal provides a derivation of the giant graviton expansion directly in terms of quantized supergravity degrees of freedom, and it recovers discrete data via quantum geometries that are classically nonsmooth.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surviving nanoscale interfacial stability in extreme thermal expansion contrast Zn(CN) 2 -epoxy resin matrix composites

Here, we report the remarkable stability at the nanoscale matrix-filler interface in a series of overall low coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) zinc cyanide (ZC)/epoxy resin composites. These interfaces demonstrate the stability of highly contrasting materials. These composites are designed to optimize the properties of both materials: epoxy resins are valued for their high strength, superb chemical resistance, low dielectric properties, and adhesive abilities. ZC, a model flexible framework, exhibits negative thermal expansion (NTE) behavior and compensates for the epoxy resin’s detrimentally large thermal expansion values. Filled resins minimize the native 65 ppm/°C CTE values to 19 ppm/° C over a wide temperature range while maintaining linearity, yielding composites compatible with typical metal and ceramic substrates’—commonly bonded to the resin— 0–20 ppm/° C CTE values. Additionally, with significant intrinsic differences in the materials, we use wide-angle X-ray diffraction and atomic force microscopy to elucidate thermal movement. The ZC/epoxy interface is surprisingly resilient over 1,000 cycles between -55° C and 75° C, extremes typical to aerospace applications. Further, we show that the resin viscosity remains less than 21 Pa*s at up to 30 vol% ZC, an important consideration for workability. We also discuss settling distribution, glass transition temperature, flexural strength, and longevity. All results point favorably towards practical implementation in low thermal expansion application needs: filling the gap in component design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Accelerated First-Principles Molecular Dynamics Explains Anomalous Lattice Thermal Expansion in BaZr 0.78 Y 0.22 O 3-δ

Fuel cells are a vital clean energy technology that converts chemical energy directly into electricity with high efficiency, making them a cornerstone of a sustainable energy future. Herein we investigate the thermal and chemical lattice expansion behavior of hydrated BaZr 0.78 Y 0.22 O 3-δ using machine learning-accelerated ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. Here, our results reproduce the experimentally observed non-monotonic and anomalous temperature dependence of lattice expansion, which we attribute to the competing effects of thermal expansion and dehydration—two mechanisms that influence the lattice expansion in opposite directions. The importance of this work lies in its detailed demonstration of how advanced computational techniques can accurately capture complex environmental effects, providing a valuable framework for modeling similar phenomena in a variety of material systems and applications.

Proton conducting fuel cell↗