Estimation for a Simple Exponential Model
Methods of parameter estimation for exponential model arising in epidemiological studies and biological assay
SEARCH · Search NASA
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Methods of parameter estimation for exponential model arising in epidemiological studies and biological assay
Partial totals method of estimation for one parameter exponential model, comparing procedure with maximum likelihood, least squares and weighted least squares estimators
Parameter estimation in exponential decontamination models
Bayesian analysis for exponential surveillance model for defectives
Exponential decontamination models for count data
Transmission measurements made on near-infrared laboratory methane spectra have previously been fit using a Malkmus band model. The laboratory spectra were obtained in three groups at temperatures averaging 112, 188, and 295 K; band model fitting was done separately for each temperature group. These band model parameters cannot be used directly in scattering atmosphere model computations, so an exponential sum model is being developed which includes pressure and temperature fitting parameters. The goal is to obtain model parameters by least square fits at 10/cm intervals from 3800 to 9100/cm. These results will be useful in the interpretation of current planetary spectra and also NIMS spectra of Jupiter anticipated from the Galileo mission.
Mathematical models for microorganism exponential die-off rate and variance estimation from decontamination data
Fast amplitude variations due to atmospheric scintillation are the main concerns for the Deep Space Network (DSN) Ka-band downlink under clear weather conditions. A theoretical study of the amplitude scintillation variances for a finite aperture antenna is presented. Amplitude variances for weak scattering scenarios are examined using turbulence theory to describe atmospheric irregularities. We first apply the Kolmogorov turbulent spectrum to a point receiver for three different turbulent profile models, especially for an exponential model varying with altitude. These analytic solutions then are extended to a receiver with a finite aperture antenna for the three profile models. Smoothing effects of antenna aperture are expressed by gain factors. A group of scaling factor relations is derived to show the dependences of amplitude variances on signal wavelength, antenna size, and elevation angle. Finally, we use these analytic solutions to estimate the scintillation intensity for a DSN Goldstone 34-m receiving station. We find that the (rms) amplitude fluctuation is 0.13 dB at 20-deg elevation angle for an exponential model, while the fluctuation is 0.05 dB at 90 deg. These results will aid us in telecommunication system design and signal-fading prediction. They also provide a theoretical basis for further comparison with other measurements at Ka-band.
Not enough is known about the increased risk of hypobaric decompression sickness (DCS) and production of venous (VGE) and arterial (AGE) gas emboli following an air break in an otherwise normal 100% resting oxygen (O2) prebreathe (PB), and certainly a break in PB when exercise is used to accelerate nitrogen (N2) elimination from the tissues. Current Aeromedical Flight Rules at the Johnson Space Center about additional PB payback times are untested, possibly too conservative, and therefore not optimized for operational use. A 10 min air break at 90 min into a 120 min PB that includes initial dual-cycle ergometry for 10 min will show a measurable increase in the risk of DCS and VGE after ascent to 4.3 psia compared to a 10 min break at 15 min into the PB, or when there is no break in PB. Data collection with humans begins in 2005, but here we first evaluate the hypothesis using three models of tissue N2 kinetics: Model I is a simple single half-time compartment exponential model, Model II is a three compartment half-time exponential model, and Model III is a variable half-time compartment model where the percentage of maximum O2 consumption for the subject during dual-cycle ergometry exercise defines the half-time compartment. Model I with large rate constants to simulate an exercise effect always showed a late break in PB had the greatest consequence. Model II showed an early break had the greatest consequence. Model III showed there was no difference between early or late break in exercise PB. Only one of these outcomes will be observed when humans are tested. Our results will favor one of these models, and so advance our understanding of tissue N2 kinetics, and of altitude DCS after an air break in PB.
In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.
Both the US and Russian space programs use similar predictive models for design of fused silica windows on the International space station. The Russian model can be derived from the power expression for slow crack growth (SCG) or “static fatigue.” The US uses both power and exponential models. Despite the similarity of models and data fitting approach (linear regression and right censoring), different SCG parameters have been derived by US and Russian parties for the same material (Russian fused silica) tested in a similar manner. The difference appears to be related to the use of short-term strength data along with the longer-term static fatigue data, with the power law parameter n being very sensitive to the conversion of strength data into equivalent static data. This hybrid approach is feasible if strength data is measured with a constant stress rate and is appropriately converted to a static equivalent. More research into the approach is needed. However, because of the nonlinear behavior of fused silica in log(v) – log(K(I) ) space and the sensitivity of parameter estimation to fit range, the exponential model is a better choice regardless of test method. Functions are given to convert parameters from the Russian model to those in the US model. However, accurate conversion is hampered by the lack of inert strength data. When the same test technique is used, US and Russian materials exhibit very similar parameters.
The present paper is a study of aerodynamic noise spectra from model functions that describe the source. The study is motivated by the need to improve the spectral shape of the MGBK jet noise prediction methodology at high frequency. The predicted spectral shape usually appears less broadband than measurements and faster decaying at high frequency. Theoretical representation of the source is based on Lilley's equation. Numerical simulations of high-speed subsonic jets as well as some recent turbulence measurements reveal a number of interesting statistical properties of turbulence correlation functions that may have a bearing on radiated noise. These studies indicate that an exponential spatial function may be a more appropriate representation of a two-point correlation compared to its Gaussian counterpart. The effect of source non-compactness on spectral shape is discussed. It is shown that source non-compactness could well be the differentiating factor between the Gaussian and exponential model functions. In particular, the fall-off of the noise spectra at high frequency is studied and it is shown that a non-compact source with an exponential model function results in a broader spectrum and better agreement with data. An alternate source model that represents the source as a covariance of the convective derivative of fine-scale turbulence kinetic energy is also examined.
1/s line intensity distribution function for molecular spectra representation using growth curves calculated for Lorentz lines
Two computer programs developed according to two general types of exponential models for conducting nonlinear exponential regression analysis are described. Least squares procedure is used in which the nonlinear problem is linearized by expanding in a Taylor series. Program is written in FORTRAN 5 for the Univac 1108 computer.
Four current viscoplastic models are compared experimentally with Inconel 718 at 1100 F. A series of tests were performed to create a sufficient data base from which to evaluate material constants. The models used include Bodner's anisotropic model; Krieg, Swearengen, and Rhode's model; Schmidt and Miller's model; and Walker's exponential model.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
The authors compare the results of Donato's exponentially varying ground model, Attenborough's exponentially varying ground model and the rigid backed thin layer model. They show that these models produce similar results for slow variations. For rapid variations the results are quite different, but the basic theory used is only correct for the thin layer model. These results suggest that the exponentially varying models are not necessary for fitting ground impedance data.
The aggregation (sorting) of the individual solar cells into an array is commonly based on a single operating point on the current-voltage (I-V) characteristic curve. An alternative approach for cell performance prediction and cell screening is provided by modeling the cell using an equivalent electrical circuit, in which the parameters involved are related to the physical phenomena in the device. These analytical models may be represented by a double exponential I-V characteristic with seven parameters, by a double exponential model with five parameters, or by a single exponential equation with four or five parameters. In this article we address issues concerning methodologies for the determination of solar cell parameters based on measured data points of the I-V characteristic, and introduce a procedure for screening of solar cells for arrays. We show that common curve fitting techniques, e.g., least squares, may produce many combinations of parameter values while maintaining a good fit between the fitted and measured I-V characteristics of the cell. Therefore, techniques relying on curve fitting criteria alone cannot be directly used for cell parameterization. We propose a consistent procedure which takes into account the entire set of parameter values for a batch of cells. This procedure is based on a definition of a mean cell representing the batch, and takes into account the relative contribution of each parameter to the overall goodness of fit. The procedure is demonstrated on a batch of 50 silicon cells for Space Station Freedom.