Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Exponential weighting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Real-time rapid leakage estimation for deep space habitats using exponentially-weighted adaptively-refined search

The recent accelerated growth in space-related research and development activities makes the near-term need for long-term extraterrestrial habitats evident. Such habitats must operate under continuous disruptive conditions arising from extreme environments like meteoroid impacts, extreme temperature fluctuations, galactic cosmic rays, destructive dust, and seismic events. Loss of air or atmospheric leakage from a habitat poses safety challenges that demand proper attention. Such leakage may arise from micro-meteoroid impacts, crack growth, bolt/rivet loosening, and seal deterioration. In this paper, leakage estimation in deep space habitats is posed as an inverse problem. A forward pressure-based dynamical model is formulated for atmospheric leakage. Experiments are performed on a small-scaled pressure chamber where different leakage scenarios are emulated and corresponding pressure values are measured. An exponentially-weighted adaptively-refined search (EWARS) algorithm is developed and validated for the inverse problem of real-time leakage estimation. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology can achieve real-time estimation and tracking of constant and variable leaks with accuracy.

Deep space habitats↗
NASA NTRS1999

Optimal Frequency-Domain System Realization with Weighting

Several approaches are presented to identify an experimental system model directly from frequency response data. The formulation uses a matrix-fraction description as the model structure. Frequency weighting such as exponential weighting is introduced to solve a weighted least-squares problem to obtain the coefficient matrices for the matrix-fraction description. A multi-variable state-space model can then be formed using the coefficient matrices of the matrix-fraction description. Three different approaches are introduced to fine-tune the model using nonlinear programming methods to minimize the desired cost function. The first method uses an eigenvalue assignment technique to reassign a subset of system poles to improve the identified model. The second method deals with the model in the real Schur or modal form, reassigns a subset of system poles, and adjusts the columns (rows) of the input (output) influence matrix using a nonlinear optimizer. The third method also optimizes a subset of poles, but the input and output influence matrices are refined at every optimization step through least-squares procedures.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗
NASA NTRS1999

Optimal System Realization in Frequency Domain

Several approaches are presented to identify an experimental system model directly from frequency response data. The formulation begins with a matrix-fraction description as the model structure. Frequency weighting such as exponential weighting is introduced to solve a weighted least-squares problem to obtain the coefficient matrices for the matrix-fraction description. A multi-variable state-space model can then be formed using the coefficient matrices of the matrix-fraction description. An approach is introduced to fine-tune the model using non-linear programming methods to minimize the desired cost function. The method deals with the model in the real Schur or modal form and reassigns a subset of system poles using a nonlinear optimizer. At every optimization step, the input and output influence matrices are refined through least-squares procedures. The proposed approaches are used to identify an analytical model for a NASA testbed from experimental data.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗
NASA NTRS1995

A correlative comparison of the ring current and auroral electrojects usig geomagnetic indices

From a study of the 21 largest geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 21, a strong correlation is established between the ring current index Dst and the time-weighted accumulation of the 1-hour auroral electrojets indices, AE and AL. The time-weighted accumulation corresponds to convolution of the auroral electrojet indices with an exponential weighting function with an e-folding time of 9.4 hours. The weighted indices AE(sub w) and AL(sub w) have correltation coefficients against Dst ranging between 0.8 and 0.95 for 20 of the 21 storms. Correlation over the entire solar cycle 21 database is also strong but not as strong as for an individual storm. A set of simple Dst prediction functions provide a first approximation of the inferred dependence, but the specific functional relationship of Dst (AL(sub w)) or Dst (AL(sub w)) varies from one storm to the next in a systematic way. This variation reveals a missing parametric dependence in the transfer function. However, our results indicate that auroral electroject indices are potentially useful for predicting storm time enhancements of ring current intensity with a few hours lead time.

Cade, W. B., III↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Gauss-Radau-Laguerre Discrete Variable Representation for Use in Continuum Electron Dynamics

In this work, we detail an implementation, suitable for calculations on highly correlated ionizing systems, of a modified finite element discrete variable representation (FE-DVR) appended with a Gauss-Radau-Laguerre element. The appended element includes exterior complex scaling (ECS) to impose outgoing wave boundary conditions on treatments of processes involving continuum electrons. In this “infinite range” ECS (irECS), the complications that introduce reflections from the end of the grid when the last ECS finite element has finite range are avoided by the use of the Laguerre-weighted exponentially decaying tails, while outgoing wave boundary conditions are still imposed via the ECS transformation. For highly correlated systems in the absence of strong external fields we find that accurate two-electron integrals are essential in this modified FE-DVR. To accurately compute the two-electron integrals over the entire ECS contour, we present a detailed examination of the implications from the boundary terms that arise in a solution of Poisson’s equation with the Radau-Laguerre basis. A boundary term correction is necessary, and when included, the Radau-Laguerre DVR can accurately describe highly correlated states such as the doubly excited states of helium over the entire ECS contour.

elements↗
DOE OSTI2026

A variational framework for residual-based adaptivity in neural PDE solvers and operator learning

Residual-based adaptive strategies are widely used in scientific machine learning yet remain largely heuristic. We introduce a variational framework that formalizes these methods through convex transformations of the residual, where different transformations correspond to distinct objective functionals. For instance, exponential weights target uniform error minimization, while linear weights recover quadratic error minimization. This perspective reveals adaptive weighting as a means of selecting sampling distributions that optimize a primal objective, directly linking discretization choices to error metrics. This principled approach yields three key benefits: it enables systematic design of adaptive schemes, reduces discretization error by lowering estimator variance, and enhances learning dynamics by improving gradient signal-to-noise ratio. Extending the framework to operator learning, we demonstrate substantial performance gains across diverse optimizers and architectures. Our results provide a theoretical perspective for residual-based adaptivity and establish a foundation for principled discretization and training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Cauchy problem for Boltzmann equation modeling a polyatomic gas

In the present article, we consider the Boltzmann equation that models a polyatomic gas by introducing one additional continuous variable, referred to as microscopic internal energy. We establish existence and uniqueness theory in the space homogeneous setting for the full non-linear case, under an extended Grad-type assumption on transition probability rates, which comprises hard potentials for both the relative speed and internal energy with the rate in the interval 0,2, multiplied by an integrable angular part and integrable partition functions. The Cauchy problem is resolved by means of an abstract ordinary differential equation (ODE) theory in Banach spaces for the initial data with finite and strictly positive gas mass and energy, finite momentum, and additionally finite K* polynomial moment, with K* depending on the rate of the transition probability and the structure of a polyatomic molecule or its internal degrees of freedom. Moreover, we prove that polynomially and exponentially weighted Banach space norms associated with the solution are both generated and propagated uniformly in time.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment I—Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587)

This article is the second paper from the ASHRAE research project RP-1587, focusing on the methodology of obtaining a control quality factor (CQF). This article presents a development of two CQFs for assessing the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) control loop performance. Both CQFs are able to detect whether the control loop is able to maintain the setpoint and identify the loop's ability to handle disturbances. In addition, the reversal behaviors are assessed as well. The first CQF (CQF-Harris) is proposed based on the normalized Harris index using the recursive least squares method. This recursive least squares method is selected because of its computational efficiency compared with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The second CQF (CQF-EWMA) is based on the exponentially weighted moving average of the error ratio. The assessment scale of excellent, good, fair, bad, and failed, which indicates the quality of the HVAC control loops, is established as well. The sensitivity analysis for both CQFs is also conducted, and it provides insights on choosing the appropriate parameters to compute such CQFs. Such parameters include the sampling frequency, the length of the moving window, and the variance of the unmeasured disturbance. The field evaluations and tests of the proposed CQFs for simulated control loops and real control loops can be found in the companion paper with the title 'Development of Control Quality Factor for HVAC Control Loop Performance Assessment - III: Field Testing and Results (ASHRAE RP-1587).'

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment—II: Field testing and results (ASHRAE RP-1587)

This article is the third paper from the research project RP-1587, focusing on presenting a comprehensive field test of the proposed control quality factors (CQFs; i.e., CQF-Harris and CQF-exponentially weighted moving average [EWMA]) and testing results. Firstly, the simulated control loops and real control loops are evaluated for offline assessment. Then, the field experiment implemented for different HVAC control loops is assessed online using the proposed CQFs. Test results show that the proposed CQFs are capable of adequately and effectively assessing the HVAC control loop performance. The methodology of obtaining those CQFs is provided in the companion paper: Development of Control Quality Factor for HVAC Control Loop Performance Assessment I - Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587) (Li et al. 2019 Li, Y., Z. D. O'Neill, and X. Zhou. 2019. Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment I - Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Models of bars − II. Exponential profiles

ABSTRACT We present a new model for galactic bars with exponentially falling major axis luminosity profiles and Gaussian cross-sections. This is based on the linear superposition of Gaussian potential–density pairs with an exponential weight function, using an extension of the method originally introduced by Long & Murali. We compute the density, potential, and forces, using Gaussian quadrature. These quantities are given as explicit functions of position. There are three independent scaled bar parameters that can be varied continuously to produce bespoke bars of a given mass and shape. We categorize the effective potential by splitting a reduced parameter space into six regions. Unusually, we find bars with three stable Lagrange points on the major axis are possible. Our model reveals a variety of unexpected orbital structure, including a bifurcating x1 orbit coexisting with a stable x4 orbit. Propeller orbits are found to play a dominant role in the orbital structure, and we find striking similarities between our bar configuration and the model of Kaufmann & Contopoulos. We find a candidate orbital family, sired from the propeller orbits, that may be responsible for the observed high-velocity peaks in the Milky Way’s bar. As a cross-check, we inspect, for the first time, the proper motions of stars in the high-velocity peaks, which also match our suggested orbital family well. This work adds to the increasing body of evidence that real galactic bars may be supported at least partly by propeller orbits rather than solely by elliptical-like orbits of the x1 family.

McGough, D. P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Ensemble Approach to Computationally Efficient Radiological Anomaly Detection and Isotope Identification

Radiological source search is a challenging task involving detection and identification of weak sources in a constantly changing radiological background. As of now, many radiological source detection algorithms have been proposed; however, their computational complexity, and hence reliance on power intensive processing units inhibit low-power applications of radiological source search systems. In this work, we introduce the anomaly filter (AF) algorithm; a computationally light, yet effective time-series source detection algorithm based on exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) and Poisson deviance statistics. Then, we demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can be used in ensemble with other more computationally intensive source detection and identification algorithms to achieve both increased detection performance and reduced power consumption. The proposed AF algorithm and the ensemble algorithms were thoroughly benchmarked against several existing source detection and identification algorithms. The results show that the AF algorithm outperforms existing conventional source detection algorithms, and the ensemble approach improves the overall performance of existing source detection and isotope identification algorithms. Furthermore, the AF algorithm and the Non-negative Matrix Factorization approach based source identification (NMF-ID) algorithm were combined and implemented on a singleboard microcontroller and the power consumption was measured. This ensemble algorithm reduced the power consumption of the NMF-ID algorithm almost by a factor of 100, while improving the detection performance of the overall system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examining Nuisance Aerosol Detections in Light of the Origin of the Screening Process (November 2021)

The evolution of philosophy and computations in the International Data Center (IDC) related to aerosol samples have had profound impacts on the number of recorded detections in the network since routine operations began in 2000. Key decisions from policymakers have been the list of triggering radionuclides, the scheme for categorizing these into interest levels 1-5, and an algorithm for determining when an anthropogenic isotope is seen so often that it is no longer interesting, known as the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). These are described in the Operations Manual of the IDC. Key parameters that are controlled by the IDC but for which the IDC receives occasional input from policymakers include the constants in EWMA and the peak significance threshold for individual gamma rays, the latter of which directly leads to determination of the presence or absence of a radionuclide in a sample. There are also changes in computations which the IDC makes and informs policy makers about, such as changes in how background is computed, which could also affect the ease of detecting a peak – real or false. Rather than focus on the quantitative changes due to computation changes, this work records some thinking on how isotopes and peak significance levels were chosen, and the resulting detections seen over 18 years during the buildup of the International Monitoring System (IMS). These detections are considered on a global scale to try to determine the relative impact on monitoring, and in some cases, the nature of their existence. Repeated detections of 131I and 133I are the most troublesome, but they are not so frequent to be a major problem for the Verification Regime. These detections could probably be handled adequately using scientific methods currently under development for xenon backgrounds. It is also somewhat problematic that top-level analysis of aerosol backgrounds has not been reported previous to this. The steep increase in the rate of detections after 2016 are a concern, either in the actual backgrounds or from changes in the calculations methods used to generate the Reviewed Radionuclide Report (RRR.) Final conclusions of the authors are that the computational stability of the RRR is very important. With computational stability, changes can be usefully analyzed as being due to changes in radioactivity in Earth’s atmosphere This report is a distillation into text of a talk given in the Radionuclide Experts Group (RNEG) in Vienna during Working Group B (WGB) in February of 2019. This report does not directly contain any IDC data, only summaries by year, or by isotope, or by location. No specific IDC detection by time, location, or isotope is included.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Monitoring of Liquid Metal Reactor Heater Zones with Recurrent Neural Network Learning of Temperature Time Series

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors (ARs), such as sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCRs) utilize high-temperature fluids at ambient pressure. To melt the fluid during reactor startup and prevent fluid freezing during cooldown, the thermal–hydraulic systems of such ARs include heater zones consisting of specific heaters with controllers, temperature sensors, and thermal insulation. The failure of heater zones due to insulation material degradation or improper installation, resulting in parasitic heat losses, can lead to fluid freezing. The detection of faults using a heat-transfer model is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of the experimental details. Data-driven machine learning of heater zone temperature time series offers a viable alternative. In this study, we benchmarked the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in an analysis of heat-up transient temperature time series of heater zones installed on a liquid sodium vessel. The RNN models include long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, as well as their bi-directional variants, BiLSTM and BiGRU. Anomalous temperature points were designated using a percentile-based threshold applied to residual fluctuations in the detrended temperature time series. Additionally, the impact of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method on detection accuracy was examined. The RNN models’ performance was assessed using precision, recall, and F 1 score metrics. Results demonstrated that RNN models effectively detect anomalies in temperature time series with the best models for each heater zone achieving F 1 scores of over 93%. To explain the variations in RNN model performance across different heater zones, we used Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the relative entropy between training and testing data, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to assess long-range temporal correlations. For datasets with strong long-range correlations and minimal relative entropy between training and testing data, GRU is the best-performing model. When the data exhibits weaker long-term correlations and a significant relative entropy between training and testing distributions, BiGRU shows the best performance. For the data sets with intermediate values of both KL divergence and DFA, the best performance is obtained with LSTM and BiLSTM, respectively.

gated recurrent unit↗
NASA NTRS1970

Analysis of a Decision-Directed Receiver with Unknown Priors

A decision-directed receiver (DDR) uses previous outputs (decisions) to estimate unknown parameters and, on the basis of these estimates, modifies the detector structure for subsequent decisions. Although the DDR is less complex to instrument than other adaptive schemes, inherent in the decision-directed approach is the possibility of a runaway. This occurs when the detector commits a sequence of decision errors resulting in a degradation of parameter estimates, which, in turn, results in a further deterioration of detector performance. Because of the dependencies introduced by the learning process, runaway is difficult to analyze. In this paper, a DDR with unknown a priori probabilities is considered. The priors are estimated by the relative frequency of decisions of that event. For binary detection, it is shown that there is a positive probability of a runaway (the estimates converge to 1 or 0), which equals 1 if the signal-to-noise ratio is below a critical value. A tight bound on the probability of a runaway is obtained by approximating the learning process by a random walk with independent increments. The analysis demonstrates that a runaway is quite improbable even for moderate signal-to-noise ratios. The analysis is extended to multiple signals and to the situation where the estimates of the priors are updated continuously through exponential weighting rather than allowed to converge.

Davisson, Lee D.↗
NASA NTRS1956

An Oil-Stream Photomicrographic Aeroscope for Obtaining Cloud Liquid-Water Content and Droplet Size Distributions in Flight

An airborne cloud aeroscope by which droplet size, size distribution, and liquid-water content of clouds can be determined has been developed and tested in flight and in wind tunnels with water sprays. In this aeroscope the cloud droplets are continuously captured in a stream of oil, which Is then photographed by a photomicrographic camera. The droplet size and size distribution can be determined directly from the photographs. With the droplet size distribution known, the liquid-water content of the cloud can be computed from the geometry of the aeroscope, the airspeed, and the oil-flow rate. The aeroscope has the following features: Data are obtained semi-automatically, and permanent data are taken in the form of photographs. A single picture usually contains a sufficient number of droplets to establish the droplet size distribution. Cloud droplets are continuously captured in the stream of oil, but pictures are taken at Intervals. The aeroscope can be operated in icing and non-icing conditions. Because of mixing of oil in the instrument, the droplet-distribution patterns and liquid-water content values from a single picture are exponentially weighted average values over a path length of about 3/4 mile at 150 miles per hour. The liquid-water contents, volume-median diameters, and distribution patterns obtained on test flights and in the Lewis icing tunnel are similar to previously published data.

Hacker, Paul T.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Robustness of extended-Kalman-type observers

Robustness properties of extended-Kalman-type observers are investigated for linear plants when actuators and sensors have non-linearities or linear dynamics. Sufficient conditions for the stability of the estimation error are obtained for time-varying extended Kalman filters (EKF) for time-varying plants, and for constant-gain, exponentially weighted EKF for time-invariant plants. When the non-linearities are known only within bands of uncertainty, it is proved that the observer is non-divergent.

Joshi, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A class of least-squares filtering and identification algorithms with systolic array architectures

A unified approach is presented for deriving a large class of new and previously known time- and order-recursive least-squares algorithms with systolic array architectures, suitable for high-throughput-rate and VLSI implementations of space-time filtering and system identification problems. The geometrical derivation given is unique in that no assumption is made concerning the rank of the sample data correlation matrix. This method utilizes and extends the concept of oblique projections, as used previously in the derivations of the least-squares lattice algorithms. Exponentially weighted least-squares criteria are considered for both sliding and growing memory.

Kalson, Seth Z.↗