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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) using GHI measurements and a cloud retrieval technique

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Here, we introduce a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposes the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle are accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique is used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction are predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-min exponential weighted moving average, respectively. Our model evaluation using the long-term observations of GHI at NREL's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) shows that the PSPI has a better performance than the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 min, which is more significant in cloudy-sky conditions. Finally, compared to the persistence and smart persistence models, the PSPI does not require additional observations of various atmospheric parameters but is customizable in that additional observations, if available, can be ingested to further improve the GHI forecast. An advanced technology of cloud forecast is also expected to improve the future performance of the PSPI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Gauss-Radau-Laguerre Discrete Variable Representation for Use in Continuum Electron Dynamics

In this work, we detail an implementation, suitable for calculations on highly correlated ionizing systems, of a modified finite element discrete variable representation (FE-DVR) appended with a Gauss-Radau-Laguerre element. The appended element includes exterior complex scaling (ECS) to impose outgoing wave boundary conditions on treatments of processes involving continuum electrons. In this “infinite range” ECS (irECS), the complications that introduce reflections from the end of the grid when the last ECS finite element has finite range are avoided by the use of the Laguerre-weighted exponentially decaying tails, while outgoing wave boundary conditions are still imposed via the ECS transformation. For highly correlated systems in the absence of strong external fields we find that accurate two-electron integrals are essential in this modified FE-DVR. To accurately compute the two-electron integrals over the entire ECS contour, we present a detailed examination of the implications from the boundary terms that arise in a solution of Poisson’s equation with the Radau-Laguerre basis. A boundary term correction is necessary, and when included, the Radau-Laguerre DVR can accurately describe highly correlated states such as the doubly excited states of helium over the entire ECS contour.

elements↗
DOE OSTI2026

A variational framework for residual-based adaptivity in neural PDE solvers and operator learning

Residual-based adaptive strategies are widely used in scientific machine learning yet remain largely heuristic. We introduce a variational framework that formalizes these methods through convex transformations of the residual, where different transformations correspond to distinct objective functionals. For instance, exponential weights target uniform error minimization, while linear weights recover quadratic error minimization. This perspective reveals adaptive weighting as a means of selecting sampling distributions that optimize a primal objective, directly linking discretization choices to error metrics. This principled approach yields three key benefits: it enables systematic design of adaptive schemes, reduces discretization error by lowering estimator variance, and enhances learning dynamics by improving gradient signal-to-noise ratio. Extending the framework to operator learning, we demonstrate substantial performance gains across diverse optimizers and architectures. Our results provide a theoretical perspective for residual-based adaptivity and establish a foundation for principled discretization and training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Cauchy problem for Boltzmann equation modeling a polyatomic gas

In the present article, we consider the Boltzmann equation that models a polyatomic gas by introducing one additional continuous variable, referred to as microscopic internal energy. We establish existence and uniqueness theory in the space homogeneous setting for the full non-linear case, under an extended Grad-type assumption on transition probability rates, which comprises hard potentials for both the relative speed and internal energy with the rate in the interval 0,2, multiplied by an integrable angular part and integrable partition functions. The Cauchy problem is resolved by means of an abstract ordinary differential equation (ODE) theory in Banach spaces for the initial data with finite and strictly positive gas mass and energy, finite momentum, and additionally finite K* polynomial moment, with K* depending on the rate of the transition probability and the structure of a polyatomic molecule or its internal degrees of freedom. Moreover, we prove that polynomially and exponentially weighted Banach space norms associated with the solution are both generated and propagated uniformly in time.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment I—Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587)

This article is the second paper from the ASHRAE research project RP-1587, focusing on the methodology of obtaining a control quality factor (CQF). This article presents a development of two CQFs for assessing the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) control loop performance. Both CQFs are able to detect whether the control loop is able to maintain the setpoint and identify the loop's ability to handle disturbances. In addition, the reversal behaviors are assessed as well. The first CQF (CQF-Harris) is proposed based on the normalized Harris index using the recursive least squares method. This recursive least squares method is selected because of its computational efficiency compared with the maximum likelihood estimation method. The second CQF (CQF-EWMA) is based on the exponentially weighted moving average of the error ratio. The assessment scale of excellent, good, fair, bad, and failed, which indicates the quality of the HVAC control loops, is established as well. The sensitivity analysis for both CQFs is also conducted, and it provides insights on choosing the appropriate parameters to compute such CQFs. Such parameters include the sampling frequency, the length of the moving window, and the variance of the unmeasured disturbance. The field evaluations and tests of the proposed CQFs for simulated control loops and real control loops can be found in the companion paper with the title 'Development of Control Quality Factor for HVAC Control Loop Performance Assessment - III: Field Testing and Results (ASHRAE RP-1587).'

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment—II: Field testing and results (ASHRAE RP-1587)

This article is the third paper from the research project RP-1587, focusing on presenting a comprehensive field test of the proposed control quality factors (CQFs; i.e., CQF-Harris and CQF-exponentially weighted moving average [EWMA]) and testing results. Firstly, the simulated control loops and real control loops are evaluated for offline assessment. Then, the field experiment implemented for different HVAC control loops is assessed online using the proposed CQFs. Test results show that the proposed CQFs are capable of adequately and effectively assessing the HVAC control loop performance. The methodology of obtaining those CQFs is provided in the companion paper: Development of Control Quality Factor for HVAC Control Loop Performance Assessment I - Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587) (Li et al. 2019 Li, Y., Z. D. O'Neill, and X. Zhou. 2019. Development of control quality factor for HVAC control loop performance assessment I - Methodology (ASHRAE RP-1587).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Models of bars − II. Exponential profiles

ABSTRACT We present a new model for galactic bars with exponentially falling major axis luminosity profiles and Gaussian cross-sections. This is based on the linear superposition of Gaussian potential–density pairs with an exponential weight function, using an extension of the method originally introduced by Long & Murali. We compute the density, potential, and forces, using Gaussian quadrature. These quantities are given as explicit functions of position. There are three independent scaled bar parameters that can be varied continuously to produce bespoke bars of a given mass and shape. We categorize the effective potential by splitting a reduced parameter space into six regions. Unusually, we find bars with three stable Lagrange points on the major axis are possible. Our model reveals a variety of unexpected orbital structure, including a bifurcating x1 orbit coexisting with a stable x4 orbit. Propeller orbits are found to play a dominant role in the orbital structure, and we find striking similarities between our bar configuration and the model of Kaufmann & Contopoulos. We find a candidate orbital family, sired from the propeller orbits, that may be responsible for the observed high-velocity peaks in the Milky Way’s bar. As a cross-check, we inspect, for the first time, the proper motions of stars in the high-velocity peaks, which also match our suggested orbital family well. This work adds to the increasing body of evidence that real galactic bars may be supported at least partly by propeller orbits rather than solely by elliptical-like orbits of the x1 family.

McGough, D. P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Ensemble Approach to Computationally Efficient Radiological Anomaly Detection and Isotope Identification

Radiological source search is a challenging task involving detection and identification of weak sources in a constantly changing radiological background. As of now, many radiological source detection algorithms have been proposed; however, their computational complexity, and hence reliance on power intensive processing units inhibit low-power applications of radiological source search systems. In this work, we introduce the anomaly filter (AF) algorithm; a computationally light, yet effective time-series source detection algorithm based on exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) and Poisson deviance statistics. Then, we demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can be used in ensemble with other more computationally intensive source detection and identification algorithms to achieve both increased detection performance and reduced power consumption. The proposed AF algorithm and the ensemble algorithms were thoroughly benchmarked against several existing source detection and identification algorithms. The results show that the AF algorithm outperforms existing conventional source detection algorithms, and the ensemble approach improves the overall performance of existing source detection and isotope identification algorithms. Furthermore, the AF algorithm and the Non-negative Matrix Factorization approach based source identification (NMF-ID) algorithm were combined and implemented on a singleboard microcontroller and the power consumption was measured. This ensemble algorithm reduced the power consumption of the NMF-ID algorithm almost by a factor of 100, while improving the detection performance of the overall system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examining Nuisance Aerosol Detections in Light of the Origin of the Screening Process (November 2021)

The evolution of philosophy and computations in the International Data Center (IDC) related to aerosol samples have had profound impacts on the number of recorded detections in the network since routine operations began in 2000. Key decisions from policymakers have been the list of triggering radionuclides, the scheme for categorizing these into interest levels 1-5, and an algorithm for determining when an anthropogenic isotope is seen so often that it is no longer interesting, known as the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA). These are described in the Operations Manual of the IDC. Key parameters that are controlled by the IDC but for which the IDC receives occasional input from policymakers include the constants in EWMA and the peak significance threshold for individual gamma rays, the latter of which directly leads to determination of the presence or absence of a radionuclide in a sample. There are also changes in computations which the IDC makes and informs policy makers about, such as changes in how background is computed, which could also affect the ease of detecting a peak – real or false. Rather than focus on the quantitative changes due to computation changes, this work records some thinking on how isotopes and peak significance levels were chosen, and the resulting detections seen over 18 years during the buildup of the International Monitoring System (IMS). These detections are considered on a global scale to try to determine the relative impact on monitoring, and in some cases, the nature of their existence. Repeated detections of 131I and 133I are the most troublesome, but they are not so frequent to be a major problem for the Verification Regime. These detections could probably be handled adequately using scientific methods currently under development for xenon backgrounds. It is also somewhat problematic that top-level analysis of aerosol backgrounds has not been reported previous to this. The steep increase in the rate of detections after 2016 are a concern, either in the actual backgrounds or from changes in the calculations methods used to generate the Reviewed Radionuclide Report (RRR.) Final conclusions of the authors are that the computational stability of the RRR is very important. With computational stability, changes can be usefully analyzed as being due to changes in radioactivity in Earth’s atmosphere This report is a distillation into text of a talk given in the Radionuclide Experts Group (RNEG) in Vienna during Working Group B (WGB) in February of 2019. This report does not directly contain any IDC data, only summaries by year, or by isotope, or by location. No specific IDC detection by time, location, or isotope is included.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Monitoring of Liquid Metal Reactor Heater Zones with Recurrent Neural Network Learning of Temperature Time Series

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors (ARs), such as sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCRs) utilize high-temperature fluids at ambient pressure. To melt the fluid during reactor startup and prevent fluid freezing during cooldown, the thermal–hydraulic systems of such ARs include heater zones consisting of specific heaters with controllers, temperature sensors, and thermal insulation. The failure of heater zones due to insulation material degradation or improper installation, resulting in parasitic heat losses, can lead to fluid freezing. The detection of faults using a heat-transfer model is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of the experimental details. Data-driven machine learning of heater zone temperature time series offers a viable alternative. In this study, we benchmarked the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in an analysis of heat-up transient temperature time series of heater zones installed on a liquid sodium vessel. The RNN models include long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, as well as their bi-directional variants, BiLSTM and BiGRU. Anomalous temperature points were designated using a percentile-based threshold applied to residual fluctuations in the detrended temperature time series. Additionally, the impact of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method on detection accuracy was examined. The RNN models’ performance was assessed using precision, recall, and F 1 score metrics. Results demonstrated that RNN models effectively detect anomalies in temperature time series with the best models for each heater zone achieving F 1 scores of over 93%. To explain the variations in RNN model performance across different heater zones, we used Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the relative entropy between training and testing data, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to assess long-range temporal correlations. For datasets with strong long-range correlations and minimal relative entropy between training and testing data, GRU is the best-performing model. When the data exhibits weaker long-term correlations and a significant relative entropy between training and testing distributions, BiGRU shows the best performance. For the data sets with intermediate values of both KL divergence and DFA, the best performance is obtained with LSTM and BiLSTM, respectively.

gated recurrent unit↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Universal Optimization and Tighter Fidelity Bounds for Approximate Quantum Error Correction

Approximate quantum error correction (AQEC) not only dictates the performance of discrete- and continuous-variable quantum error correction codes but also serves as a unifying framework across various physical disciplines. Identifying the optimal recovery channel to maximize the entanglement fidelity via standard semidefinite programming is computationally bottlenecked by the exponentially growing number of Kraus operators with system size, rendering large-scale optimization prohibitive. While analytical near-optimal maps exist, they typically work only when the Knill-Laflamme conditions are nearly satisfied. In this Letter, we establish an efficient framework by leveraging the duality between recovery and environment decoupling. This framework yields a tighter analytical lower bound on entanglement fidelity than the conventional limit set by the transpose channel. Furthermore, by exploiting the decayed weights of noise Kraus operators, we introduce a framework based on principal component analysis to reduce the dimension. In thermal loss channels where the weights decay exponentially, our approach achieves a 33-fold computational speedup while maintaining rigorous accuracy. Our approach enables high-precision optimization for AQEC codes that were previously intractable due to the curse of dimensionality.

Wu, Jing [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000249460732)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of the structure, filler interaction and degradation of disulfide elastomers made by Reversible Radical Recombination Polymerization (R3P)

In this paper we report the synthesis and analysis of cyclic polydisulfides, their redox depolymerization as well as their interaction with carbon black. Cyclic poly(3,6-dioxa-1,8-octanedithiol)s (pDODT) were synthesized by Reversible Radical Recombination Polymerization (R3P). R3P is a scalable “green” polymerization process using triethylamine (TEA), H 2 O 2 and air for the polymerization of dithiol monomers. pDODTs were synthesized in 5 and 20 g batches. The effect of peroxide concentration (3, 5, 10, 20, 30%) was investigated. It was found that the molecular weights increased exponentially with increasing peroxide concentrations. At 30% peroxide concentration pDODTs with M n up to 400,000 g/mol and polydispersity of 2 were obtained. 700 and 800 MHz NMR were used for investigating the chemical structure of the polymers. The absence of thiol end group signals in polymers made with > 10wt % H 2 O 2 and M n < 100,000 g/mol, including a sample of a fractionated polymer with starting Mn = 600,000 g/mol, verified cyclic structures. Dithiothreitol reduced the polymers to monomer and a small percentage of oligomers. Carbon black was shown to increase the moduli of high molecular weight pDODTs. Swelling tests in chloroform showed that polymers made with 20 and 30w% peroxide swelled 14 and 10 times of their starting weight without dissolving, indicating chemical interaction between the polymers and carbon black. In conclusion, further analysis of these interesting elastomers, available at the 20 g scale, is in progress.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quasi-Lindblad pseudomode theory for open quantum systems

Here, we introduce a new framework to study the dynamics of open quantum systems with linearly coupled Gaussian baths. Our approach replaces the continuous bath with an auxiliary discrete set of pseudomodes with dissipative dynamics, but we further relax the complete positivity requirement in the Lindblad master equation and formulate a quasi-Lindblad pseudomode theory. We show that this quasi-Lindblad pseudomode formulation directly leads to a representation of the bath correlation function in terms of a complex weighted sum of complex exponentials, an expansion that is known to be rapidly convergent in practice and thus leads to a compact set of pseudomodes. The pseudomode representation is not unique and can differ by a gauge choice. When the global dynamics can be simulated exactly, the system dynamics is unique and independent of the specific pseudomode representation. However, the gauge choice may affect the stability of the global dynamics, and we provide an analysis of why and when the global dynamics can retain stability despite losing positivity. We showcase the performance of this formulation across various spectral densities in both bosonic and fermionic problems, finding significant improvements over conventional pseudomode formulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of nanoparticle softness on its tracer diffusion coefficient in all polymer nanocomposites

The diffusion of nanoparticles in a polymer matrix is an area of current interest. However, a complete understanding is still limited as it is often difficult to quantify the much slower motion of nanoparticles in a polymer matrix. To combat this problem, we have developed a protocol to measure the diffusion coefficient of soft nanoparticles in a linear polymer matrix. Recently developed synthetic control over soft nanoparticle structures combined with this protocol provides a pathway to separately elucidate the effects of the molecular weight and nanoparticle softness on its diffusive behavior. These results indicate that the nanoparticle softness and deformability dictate its motion. Increasing the cross-linking density of the nanoparticle for all molecular weights increases its hardness and suppresses its motion in the linear matrix. Additionally, the nanoparticle molecular weight dependence deviates from the exponential dependence for star polymers suggesting that these nanoparticles benefit from the cooperative motion of the matrix to open pathways for the nanoparticle. Finally, comparison of these experimentally determined values to the Stokes–Einstein theory demonstrates that the nanoparticles diffuse much slower than a hard sphere. This is interpreted to indicate that there exist additional interactions between the nanoparticle and polymer matrix that are not captured by Stokes–Einstein, including threading or entanglement of the linear chain with the nanoparticle.

Rostom, Sahar↗
DOE OSTI2023

Morphological traits for allometric scaling of the European Sea Bass Dicentrarchus labrax (Linnaeus, 1758) from Southern Portugal population

Abstract The present study aimed to determine the allometric scaling among a selection of morphological traits in European sea bass ( Dicentrarchus labrax ) to estimate fish body weight. A set of morphological traits (fish body weight, length, height, and width) were directly measured in 146 fish of a recirculating aquaculture system, with body weights ranging from 17.11 to 652.21 g. In addition, a collection of digital imagery of each anesthetized fish from the side and top views were used to estimate other traits (indirect measures). Multiple regression analysis and regression coefficients were calculated using all possible combinations of biometric data (predictors) to estimate fish body weight, applying different numerical fitting models (linear, log‐linear, quadratic, exponential). The results showed that the best combination of traits for estimating fish body weight were fish body width, length and height, collected from direct measure ( R 2 = 0.995), for a log‐linear model fitting, which revealed more accurate determinations than the most commonly used length–weight relationship. Nevertheless, other combinations of morphological traits and fitting models were also found to be suitable in successfully predict fish body weight, with variability ranging between 92.5% and 98.5%. For indirect measures, the best predictor was a combination of traits from top view (width, eye distance and area without fins) fitted with a log‐linear function. These results comprise a relevant baseline in supporting the high potential of noninvasive methods to accurately follow the growth of European sea bass juveniles, recurring to imagery analysis of anesthetized fish. It has major potential applications in feeding consumption trials and fish growth models, as it allows for continuously following up fish growth under different experimental conditions without therein distress derived from manipulation.

Azevedo, Ana↗