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At least 19 records

Cosmogenic 21 Ne exposure ages on late Pleistocene moraines in Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, USA

We report new cosmogenic 21 Ne in quartz exposure ages from 18 samples on three distinct moraines deposited in the Lost Creek drainage, approximately 3–7 km down-valley from Lassen Peak in Lassen Volcanic National Park. Although measuring 21 Ne in quartz is generally straightforward, accurate 21Ne exposure dating of deposits of late Pleistocene is rarely possible due to the significant quantities of non-cosmogenic 21 Ne present in most lithologies. Young quartz-bearing volcanic rocks have been observed to be an exception. We take advantage of moraine boulders sourced from the ~28 ka dacite of Lassen Peak to generate a chronology of alpine deglaciation in Lassen Volcanic National Park. Ages from three distinct moraines are in stratigraphic order at 22.1 ± 3.8, 20.2 ± 2.4, and 15.3 ± 3.8 ka and generally agree with other terminal and some recessional moraine ages across the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada of the western United States. To date, these are among the youngest surfaces ever dated using cosmogenic 21 Ne and provide a cost-effective proof-of-concept approach to dating moraines where applicable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cliff Retreat Rates Associated with a Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility in Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA

We present an analysis and interpretation of potential cliff stability at a low-level waste disposal facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, using cliff morphologic and fracture characteristics coupled with carbon-14 surface exposure dating. Our study is important as it directly bears on the licensing criteria for low-level radioactive waste sites. We find that future characteristic cliff failures will likely not breach disposal pits and shafts over the 1000-year minimum regulatory period. Further, we find, using a multivariate regression model, that slope angle and cliff face aspect are sub-equal in importance to predict regions of high risk of failure when combined with surface exposure ages and assuming that old exposure ages are most indicative of stability (instability) and therefore can aid decision making in final design implementation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Production rate calibration for cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene by applying a rapid fusion method to 10 Be-saturated samples from the Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica

Measurements of multiple cosmogenic nuclides in a single sample are valuable for various applications of cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating and allow for correcting exposure ages for surface weathering and erosion and establishing exposure–burial history. Here we provide advances in the measurement of cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene and constraints on the production rate that provide new opportunities for measurements of multi-nuclide systems, such as 10 Be/ 3 He, in pyroxene-bearing samples. We extracted and measured cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene from two sets of Ferrar Dolerite samples collected from the Transantarctic Mountains in Antarctica. One set of samples has 10 Be concentrations close to saturation, which allows for the production rate calibration of 10 Be in pyroxene by assuming production–decay equilibrium. The other set of samples, which has a more recent exposure history, is used to determine if a rapid fusion method can be successfully applied to samples with Holocene to Last Glacial Maximum exposure ages. From measured 10 Be concentrations in the near-saturation sample set we find the production rate of 10 Be in pyroxene to be 3.74 ± 0.10 atoms g -1 yr -1 , which is consistent with 10 Be/ 3 He paired nuclide ratios from samples assumed to have simple exposure. Given the high 10 Be concentration measured in this sample set, a sample mass of ~ 0.5 g of pyroxene is sufficient for the extraction of cosmogenic 10 Be from pyroxene using a rapid fusion method. However, for the set of samples that have low 10 Be concentrations, measured concentrations were higher than expected. We attribute spuriously high 10 Be concentrations to failure in removing all meteoric 10 Be and/or a highly variable and poorly quantified procedural blank background correction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Late Holocene glacier and climate fluctuations in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain ranges, northwestern Canada

Over the last century, northwestern Canada experienced some of the highest rates of tropospheric warming globally, which caused glaciers in the region to rapidly retreat. Our study seeks to extend the record of glacier fluctuations and assess climate drivers prior to the instrumental record in the Mackenzie and Selwyn mountains of northwestern Canada. We collected 27 10 Be surface exposure ages across nine cirque and valley glacier moraines to constrain the timing of their emplacement. Cirque and valley glaciers in this region reached their greatest Holocene extents in the latter half of the Little Ice Age (1600–1850 CE). Four erratic boulders, 10–250 m distal from late Holocene moraines, yielded 10 Be exposure ages of 10.9–11.6 ka, demonstrating that by ca. 11 ka, alpine glaciers were no more extensive than during the last several hundred years. Estimated temperature change obtained through reconstruction of equilibrium line altitudes shows that since ca. 1850 CE, mean annual temperatures have risen 0.2–2.3 °C. We use our glacier chronology and the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to estimate that from 1000 CE, glaciers in this region reached a maximum total volume of 34–38 km 3 between 1765 and 1855 CE and had lost nearly half their ice volume by 2019 CE. OGGM was unable to produce modeled glacier lengths that match the timing or magnitude of the maximum glacier extent indicated by the 10 Be chronology. However, when applied to the entire Mackenzie and Selwyn mountain region, past millennium OGGM simulations using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) and the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) yield late Holocene glacier volume change temporally consistent with our moraine and remote sensing record, while the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model 2 (MRI-ESM2) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) fail to produce modeled glacier change consistent with our glacier chronology. Finally, OGGM forced by future climate projections under varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios predicts 85 % to over 97 % glacier volume loss by the end of the 21st century. The loss of glaciers from this region will have profound impacts on local ecosystems and communities that rely on meltwater from glacierized catchments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long‐term growth and persistence of granitic inselbergs in a semi‐arid cratonic landscape

Granitic inselbergs are enduring landforms that punctuate planation surfaces in tectonically stable settings, yet the mechanisms and timescales of their persistence remain debated. Here, in this study, we present a multinuclide cosmogenic dataset ( 10 Be, 26 Al and 21 Ne) from bedrock, fluvial sediments and planation surfaces in the semi-arid Central Ceará Domain, north-eastern Brazil, to quantify denudation rates and reconstruct the long-term dynamics of residual relief formation. This triple-nuclide approach enables independent validation of denudation contrasts and long-term exposure histories, providing quantitative constraints on inselberg evolution that a single-nuclide approach could not resolve. Bedrock denudation rates (1–4 m Myr −1 ) are systematically lower than basin-wide rates (8–14 m Myr −1 ), revealing a regional pattern of vertical differential denudation. When combined with summit elevations and surface exposure ages of up to 5 Myr, these contrasts suggest that cumulative relief growth has been operating over timescales of tens of millions of years (1–57 Myr). Morphological and structural observations further indicate localized mass wasting and heterogeneous erosion styles, modulated by rock fabric and joint density. Cosmogenic nuclide inventories in detrital sediments reveal partial reworking from older sediment stocks, including surface pebbles with exposure ages up to 5 Myr, which record multistage of burial and re-exposure histories and reflect episodic remobilization in low-connectivity, semi-arid catchments. Rather than static relicts of ancient surfaces, inselbergs in this cratonic setting emerge as dynamic landforms actively sustained by slow but persistent differential denudation. These results provide new constraints on long-term cratonic landscape evolution and underscore the interplay between lithological resistance, structural inheritance and sediment transfer processes in sustaining topographic relief. They also call for a critical reassessment of classical inselberg models, suggesting that hybrid mechanisms, rather than single-process paradigms, more accurately capture the complexity of residual landform development in cratonic interiors.

Cosmogenic nuclides↗

Continental rift evolution and drainage reorganization along the Dead Sea rift since the Miocene

The Dead Sea fault is a section of the Arabian-African plate boundary. Widespread field relations indicate that three major drainage systems (stages) occupied the landscape west of the Dead Sea fault since its initiation at ca. 20 Ma. Specifically, (1) an early to middle Miocene drainage system, only minorly reconfigured by the fault (all sediments of this system belong to the Hazeva Formation); (2) a late Miocene to early Pleistocene fault-parallel drainage system named Paran-Neqarot (all sediments of this system belong to the Arava and Zehiha Formations; and (3) the early Pleistocene to present drainage configuration. The temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 1 are generally constrained by radiometric dating of interfingering volcanic units, and the onset and temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 3 are well constrained by cosmogenic 10 Be surface exposure ages. The timing and longevity of the rift-parallel drainage (stage 2) have until now been evasive to direct dating. The overall time gap between stages 1 and 3 is ~12–13 million years. Thus, an early age (within this time gap) of stage 2 would imply an immediate response of drainage reorganization to rift tectonics, while a later age of this drainage system would imply a delayed response. We present 11 10 Be- 26 Al cosmogenic burial ages of alluvial and colluvial units related to the fault-parallel drainage system (stage 2), which collectively constrain the time of deposition of the Arava Formation sediments in the central Negev to ca. 8 Ma. The general lack of stratigraphic order, together with the large dispersion of ages both across and within the sampling sites, attests to significant recycling of sediments from drainage stage 1 into the Arava Formation deposits. The termination of Arava and Zehiha Formation sediment deposition at ca. 1.8 Ma was determined previously using cosmogenic exposure ages of desert pavements that cover the formations. Combining the previously published data with our new data, we established the longevity and character of the Paran-Neqarot drainage system. In conlcusion, this framework highlights the temporal aspect of drainage system build-up and collapse as it responded to transform and extensional plate boundary tectonics during the Neogene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene: laboratory progress, production rate systematics, and application of the 10 Be– 3 He nuclide pair in the Antarctic Dry Valleys

Here, we present cosmogenic- 10 Be and cosmogenic- 3 He data from Ferrar dolerite pyroxenes in surficial rock samples and a bedrock core from the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, with the goal of refining the laboratory methods for extracting beryllium from pyroxene, further estimating the 10 Be production rate in pyroxene and demonstrating the applicability of 10 Be– 3 He in mafic rock. The ability to routinely measure cosmogenic 10 Be in pyroxene will open new opportunities for quantifying exposure durations and Earth surface processes in mafic rocks. We describe scalable laboratory methods for isolating beryllium from pyroxene, which include a simple hydrofluoric acid leaching procedure for removing meteoric 10 Be and the addition of a pH 8 precipitation step to reduce the cation load prior to ion exchange chromatography. 10 Be measurements in pyroxene from the surface samples have apparent 3 He exposure ages of 1–6 Myr. We estimate a spallation production rate for 10 Be in pyroxene, referenced to 3 He, of 3.6 ± 0.2 atoms g –1 yr –1 . 10 Be and 3 He measurements in the bedrock core yield initial estimates for parameters associated with 10 Be and 3 He production by negative-muon capture ($f_{10}^{*}$ = 0.00183 and $f_{3}^{*}f_{C}f_{D}$ = 0.00337). Next, we demonstrate that the 10 Be– 3 He pair in pyroxene can be used to simultaneously resolve erosion rates and exposure ages, finding that the measured cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations in our surface samples are best explained by 2–8 Myr of exposure at erosion rates of 0–35 cm Myr –1 . Finally, given the low 10 Be in our laboratory blanks (average of 5.7 × 10 3 atoms), the reported measurement precision, and our estimated production rate, it should be possible to measure 2 g samples with 10 Be concentrations of 6 × 10 4 and 1.5 × 10 4 atoms g –1 with 5 % and 15 % uncertainty, respectively. With this level of precision, Last Glacial Maximum to Late Holocene surfaces can now be dated with 10 Be in pyroxene. Application of 10 Be in pyroxene, alone or in combination with 3 He, will expand possibilities for investigating glacial histories and landscape change in mafic rock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Mountain Glacier Perspective on the Bipolar Seesaw

A global record of mountain glacier terminations during the last deglaciation (∼19–11 ka) dated by a large, uncurated data set of cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages highlights a statistically significant asynchrony in termination ages between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This interhemispheric offset in the timing of glacier terminations is consistent with previously correlated ice core records that show a systematic interhemispheric lag in the timing of abrupt climate events, with the Southern Hemisphere leading the Northern Hemisphere by ∼300–3,500 years. Our analysis (a) aggregates cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages from a global data set of moraines to discern climatically driven peaks in moraine emplacement events, and (b) utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation based on a null hypothesis that moraine emplacement is interhemispherically synchronous to estimate the statistical significance of the observed offset. The observed lag of Northern Hemisphere emplacement events compared to the Southern Hemisphere is statistically significant and is consistent with the “bipolar seesaw” pattern observed in ice core records.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Offshore-onshore record of Last Glacial Maximum–to–present grounding line retreat at Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica

Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, is the largest Antarctic contributor to global sea-level rise and is vulnerable to rapid retreat, yet our knowledge of its deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is based largely on marine sediments that record a retreat history ending in the early Holocene. Using a suite of 10 Be exposure ages from onshore glacial deposits directly adjacent to Pine Island Glacier, we show that this major glacier thinned rapidly in the early to mid-Holocene. Our results indicate that Pine Island Glacier was at least 690 m thicker than present prior to ca. 8 ka. We infer that the rapid thinning detected at the site farthest downstream records the arrival and stabilization of the retreating grounding line at that site by 8–6 ka. By combining our exposure ages and the marine record, we extend knowledge of Pine Island Glacier retreat both spatially and temporally: to 50 km from the modern grounding line and to the mid-Holocene, providing a data set that is important for future numerical ice-sheet model validation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗

The age and potential causes of the giant Green Lake Landslide, Fiordland, New Zealand

Abstract Landslide deposits preserved in the geological record afford opportunities to better inform hillslope and seismic hazard and risk models, particularly in regions where observational records are short. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, small coseismic landslides are frequent, but the geological record preserves several instances of more substantial (> 1 km 3 ) but infrequent mass failures. With an estimated volume of 27 km 3 , the giant Green Lake Landslide represents one of the largest subaerial landslides on Earth. Previous work has suggested this deep-seated mass movement was most likely triggered by high-intensity seismic shaking, but that local structural weakness and/or glacial debuttressing may help to explain the anomalously large failure volume. Resolving the potential contribution of the latter is important given predictions concerning alpine deglaciation in the coming decades to centuries. Key to resolution are secure chronologies of landslide emplacement and past glacier change. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages from the Green Lake Landslide that suggest an emplacement age of 15.5 ± 0.7 ka. Recent work shows that glacial retreat in the region was underway by 19 ka, indicating that the Green Lake Landslide was emplaced 3–4 kyr after the onset of glacier retreat. Given the geometry of the former confining valley glacier, we expect that the deglaciation-landslide age gap is closer to the upper end of this estimate. If correct, this conclusion places greater weight on the roles of local geological structure and/or a great earthquake as factors contributing to the exceptionally large volume of this event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Antarctic permafrost processes and antiphase dynamics of cold-based glaciers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys inferred from 10 Be and 26 Al cosmogenic nuclides

Abstract. Soil and sediment mixing and associated permafrost processes are not widely studied or understood in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica. In this study, we investigate the stability and depositional history of near-surface permafrost sediments to ∼ 3 m depth in the Pearse and lower Wright valleys using measured cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al depth profiles. In Pearse Valley, we estimate a minimum depositional age of ∼ 74 ka for the active layer and paleoactive-layer sediments (< 0.65 m). Combined depth profile modelling of 10Be and 26Al gives a depositional age for near-surface (< 1.65 m) permafrost in Pearse Valley of 180 +20/-40 ka, implying that the deposition of permafrost sediments predates MIS 5 advances of Taylor Glacier. Deeper permafrost sediments (> 2.09 m) in Pearse Valley are thus inferred to have a depositional age of > 180 ka. At a coastal, lower-elevation site in neighbouring lower Wright Valley, 10Be and 26Al depth profiles from a second permafrost core exhibit near-constant concentrations with depth and indicate the sediments are either vertically mixed after deposition or sufficiently young so that post-depositional nuclide production is negligible relative to inheritance. 26Al/10Be concentration ratios for both depth profiles range between 4.0 and 5.2 and are all lower than the nominal surface production rate ratio of 6.75, indicating that prior to deposition, these sediments experienced complex, yet similar, exposure–burial histories. Assuming a single-cycle exposure–burial scenario, the observed 26Al/10Be ratios are equivalent to a total minimum exposure–burial history of ∼ 1.2 Myr. In proximity to the depth profile core site, we measured cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al in three granite cobbles from thin, patchy drift (Taylor 2 Drift) in Pearse Valley to constrain the timing of retreat of Taylor Glacier. Assuming simple continuous exposure, our minimum, zero-erosion exposure ages suggest Taylor Glacier partially retreated from Pearse Valley no later than 65–74 ka. The timing of retreat after 65 ka and until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when Taylor Glacier was at a minimum position remains unresolved. The surface cobble ages and permafrost processes reveal Taylor Glacier advances during MIS 5 were non-erosive or mildly erosive, preserving the underlying permafrost sediments and peppering boulders and cobbles upon an older, relict surface. Our results are consistent with U/Th ages from central Taylor Valley and suggest changes in moisture delivery over Taylor Dome during MIS 5e, 5c, and 5a appear to be associated with the extent of the Ross Ice Shelf and sea ice in the Ross Sea. These data provide further evidence of antiphase behaviour through retreat of a peripheral lobe of Taylor Glacier in Pearse Valley, a region that was glaciated during MIS 5. We suggest a causal relationship of cold-based glacier advance and retreat that is controlled by an increase in moisture availability during retreat of sea ice and perhaps the Ross Ice Shelf, as well as, conversely, a decrease during times of sea ice and Ross Ice Shelf expansion in the Ross Sea.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Direct Geologic Constraints on the Timing of Late Holocene Ice Thickening in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica

Abstract Constraining past West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) change helps validate numerical models simulating future ice sheet dynamics. Following rapid deglaciation during the mid‐Holocene, ice near Thwaites Glacier was ∼35 m thinner than present; however, the timing of ice regrowth to its present configuration remains unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we present cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages of cobbles from the surface of a moraine situated between Thwaites and Pope glaciers. We infer that the moraine formed and stabilized in the Late Holocene (∼1.4 ka) when a small glacier thickened. We also present a novel reconstruction of WAIS volume constrained by sea‐level data, which demonstrates that moraine formation coincided with a large‐scale WAIS readvance. Our new geologic constraints will help inform models of the solid Earth response to surface mass loading, improving our understanding of ice sheet dynamics in a vulnerable part of WAIS.

Nichols, Keir A. [Imperial College London London U↗

Constraining Erosion Rates and Landscape Evolution With In Situ 10 Be and 26 Al Cosmogenic Nuclides at Table Mountain, Antarctica

Abstract This study investigates surface weathering and sediment preservation at Table Mountain, a high‐elevation, hyperarid, polar landscape in the Transantarctic Mountains. We report cosmogenic nuclide concentrations ( 10 Be and 26 Al) in quartz from bedrock surfaces, erratic boulder lag, and cobbles embedded within Sirius Group sediments to quantify erosion rates. In situ 10 Be and 26 Al depth profiles from a 2.95 m permafrost core in the Sirius Group further constrain surface erosion rates and elucidate landscape stability. Measured 10 Be and 26 Al concentrations from two sandstone bedrock surfaces adjacent to Sirius Group sediments give erosion rates of 0.18–0.28 m/Myr. An erratic sandstone boulder within the lag above the Sirius Group yields erosion rates of ∼0.42 ± 0.03 m/Myr, whereas two cobbles embedded within the Sirius Group yield higher rates of 0.81–1.12 m/Myr. Depth profiles of in situ 10 Be and 26 Al indicate no vertical mixing of Sirius Group permafrost since deposition. Depth profile models are best explained by erosion rates of 0.53 +0.13 / −0.12 m/Myr, and an exposure age of 0.78 +0.06 / −0.08 Ma. We view the model “age” to represent the ∼0.8‐million‐year time‐scale for surface lowering equivalent to one attenuation length of cosmic ray production to achieve steady‐state conditions. Continual exhumation of embedded clasts from within the Sirius Group results in an accumulation of clasts forming the observed erosional lag deposit covering the landscape. Our erosion rates of the Sirius Group surface based on in situ 10 Be and 26 Al depth profiles are an order‐of‐magnitude larger than those based on meteoric 10 Be infiltration and further clarification is required.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data associated with Quaternary Research manuscript Latest Pleistocene glacial chronology and paleoclimate reconstruction for the East River watershed, Colorado, USA

The data here are associated with Quaternary Research manuscript Latest Pleistocene glacial chronology and paleoclimate reconstruction for the East River watershed, Colorado, USA and include data associated with cosmogenic exposure and depth profile dating as well as glacier-climate numerical modeling. Reconstructing Pleistocene glaciation timing and extent is vital for understanding paleoclimate. While late Pleistocene glaciation has been studied extensively in western North American mountain ranges, the glacial history of the western Elk Range in Colorado remains understudied, particularly in the East River watershed, a site of intense scientific focus. Here we use cosmogenic nuclide exposure and depth–profile dating methods to determine the timing of glaciation in the East River watershed. We use glacier modeling to reconstruct paleoglacier extents and quantify past climate conditions. Our findings indicate that the East River glacier retreated from its maximum position approximately 17–18 ka, moving to recessional positions between 13–15 ka, before experiencing more substantial retreat to high-elevation cirques around 12.9 ka. Glacier modeling suggests that the maximum ice extents at 17–18 ka could have been sustained by temperature depressions of approximately −6.5°C compared to modern conditions, assuming consistent precipitation. Additionally, the ice position at 13–15 ka could have been supported by temperature depressions of around −4.0°C. These results offer insights into the deglaciation timeline in the East River watershed and broader western Elk Range as well as paleoclimate conditions during the late Pleistocene, which may aid future research on critical zone evolution in the East River watershed.The data files include: 1. Table 1 In situ-produced 10Be sample data (.pdf, .csv, .xlsx)2. Table 2 In situ-produced 10Be exposure age results (.pdf, .csv, .xlsx)3. S1_A CRONUS calculator input assuming no erosion (.csv)4. S1_B CRONUS calculator input assuming erosion (.csv)5. S1_C CRONUS calculator results and comparison (.csv)6. S2_A In situ-produced 10Be sample data for depth profile (.csv)7. S2_B In situ-produced 10Be depth profile model input (.csv)8. S2_C In situ-produced 10Be depth profile model results (.csv)9. S3 Monthly cloudiness, rH, and windspeed data used in glacier climate model (.csv)10. S4 Glacier climate model results (.csv)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Relationship Between Radiation Dose and Markers of Insulin Resistance and Inflammation in Atomic Bomb Survivors

Abstract Context In recent studies of childhood cancer survivors, diabetes has been considered a late effect associated with high therapeutic doses of radiation therapy. Our recent study of atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors also suggested an association between radiation dose and diabetes incidence, with exposure city and age at exposure as radiation dose effect modifiers. Insulin resistance mediated by systemic inflammation and abnormal body composition has been suggested as a possible primary mechanism for the incidence of diabetes after total body irradiation; however, no studies have examined low to moderate radiation exposure (<4 Gy) and insulin resistance in A-bomb survivors. Objective To examine the association between radiation dose and markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Methods This study investigated 3152 survivors who underwent a health examination between 2008 and 2012 and who were younger than 15 years at exposure. Multivariate linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the radiation effects on levels of markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Results Radiation dose was significantly and positively associated with levels of C-reactive protein, triglycerides, homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function (HOMA-β), and HOMA of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) after adjustment for relevant covariates including sex, city, and age at exposure. Adiponectin and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were also associated significantly and negatively with radiation dose. However, city was not a dose modifier of the radiation response on these markers of inflammation and insulin resistance. Conclusion Insulin resistance might be a possible factor in radiation-related diabetes incidence in A-bomb survivors.

Endocrinology & Metabolism↗