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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Capturing Infrastructure Interdependencies for Power Outages Prediction During Extreme Events

As extreme weather events such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods grow in frequency and intensity, the disruption of power grid systems poses significant challenges, including widespread electrical outages, economic losses, and threats to public safety. This paper presents a forward-looking approach that leverages geographical graph-based machine learning models to predict county-level maximum power outages during such events. By capturing the intricate interdependencies within power system networks, our approach aims to provide precise and actionable predictions that can optimize emergency response efforts and enhance grid resilience. Through the integration of real-world data, including hurricane advisories and power outage records, we have trained and benchmarked multiple machine learning models, demonstrating the feasibility and potential of this method. While our initial results are promising, this paper also charts a course for advancing these models, addressing the remaining challenges, and ultimately transforming how we anticipate and respond to the impacts of extreme weather on power systems.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt) [ORNL] (ORCID:000000021317511↗
DOE OSTI2019

Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies

Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning–based extreme event attribution

The observed increase in extreme weather has prompted recent methodological advances in extreme event attribution. We propose a machine learning–based approach that uses convolutional neural networks to create dynamically consistent counterfactual versions of historical extreme events under different levels of global mean temperature (GMT). We apply this technique to one recent extreme heat event (southcentral North America 2023) and several historical events that have been previously analyzed using established attribution methods. We estimate that temperatures during the southcentral North America event were 1.18° to 1.42°C warmer because of global warming and that similar events will occur 0.14 to 0.60 times per year at 2.0°C above preindustrial levels of GMT. Additionally, we find that the learned relationships between daily temperature and GMT are influenced by the seasonality of the forced temperature response and the daily meteorological conditions. Our results broadly agree with other attribution techniques, suggesting that machine learning can be used to perform rapid, low-cost attribution of extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Negative extreme events in gross primary productivity and their drivers in China during the past three decades

Climate extremes have remarkable impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase with future global warming. However, only few studies have focused on the ecological extreme events and their drivers in China. In this study, we carried out an analysis of negative extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) in China and the sub-regions during 1982–2015, using monthly GPP simulated by 12 process-based models (TRENDYv6) and an observation-based model (Yao-GPP). Extremes were defined as the negative 5th percentile of GPP anomalies, which were further merged into individual extreme events using a three-dimensional contiguous algorithm. Spatio-temporal patterns of negative GPP anomalies were analyzed by taking the 1000 largest extreme events into consideration. Results showed that the effects of extreme events decreased annual GPP by 2.8% (i.e. 208 TgC year –1 ) in TRENDY models and 2.3% (i.e. 151 TgC year –1 ) in Yao-GPP. Hotspots of extreme GPP deficits were mainly observed in North China (–53 gC m –2 year –1 ) in TRENDY models and Northeast China (–42 gC m –2 year –1 ) in Yao-GPP. For China as a whole, attribution analyses suggested that extreme low precipitation was associated with 40%–50% of extreme negative GPP events. Most events in northern and western China could be explained by meteorological droughts (i.e. low precipitation) while GPP extreme events in southern China were more associated with temperature extremes, in particular with cold spells. GPP was revealed to be much more sensitive to heat/drought than to cold/wet extreme events. Here, combined with projected changes in climate extremes in China, GPP negative anomalies caused by drought events in northern China and by temperature extremes in southern China might be more prominent in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-scale Multi-physics Scientific Machine Learning for Water Cycle Extreme Events Identification, Labelling, Representation, and Characterization

Impacts of climate are usually felt through extreme events such as droughts, floods, thunderstorms, windstorms, wildfires, and so on, that are intimately tied to the water cycle. Predicting the frequency and severity of extreme events under climate change remains a significant challenge; meanwhile, the mechanisms and impacts of these extremes are far from well understood. There are several major science challenges: (1) Lack of labelled extreme events data and missing standards in defining extremes; (2) Computational demand of high-resolution ensemble climate modeling; (3) Modeling the multiscale multi-physics hierarchical structure of compound extremes; (4) Lack of understanding of mechanisms of extreme events; (5) Large uncertainty in extreme events impacts on infrastructure; (6) Subjective assessment of weather-related risk from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales and lack of metrics for risk assessment and mitigation control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Grid Resilience to Extreme Events (ResiliEX 2.0)

The Grid Resilience to Extreme Events (ResiliEX) 2.0 workshop, co-hosted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Seattle City Light, was held at the Seattle City Hall April 23–25, 2024. This is the second workshop of its kind, with the first one having occurred in Seattle in November 2022. Participants from the second workshop hailed from research organizations, utilities, professional associations, consultants, government organizations, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to Connect scientists, energy professionals, and policy experts to build knowledge and partnerships Advance the understanding of the science of extreme events and application to the energy system Promote grid planning and engineering that addresses the increasingly complex interdependencies as society combats the climate crisis Understand the role of different decision-makers and policymakers in increasing and accelerating grid resilience Identify new approaches, processes, and structures that should be pursued to increase grid resilience to extreme events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Historical and Future Extreme Event Indices for the Colorado River Basin

Extremes events are occurring more frequently and are projected to increase in the future. This data set includes extreme event indices that were generated for the Colorado River basin using data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. VIC simulations were run using six CMIP5 earth system models (ESMs), two different time periods, (historical, 1970-1999) and future (2070-2099), and for one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5). ESMs available are MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, and GFDL-ESM2G. The different indicators include temperature (min/max, freezing days, heating days), precipitation (dry days, max), runoff (min, max), soil moisture (min, max), evapotranspiration (max), snow water equivalent (SWE, max), wind speeds (max), and pressure (min). Detailed information on the indicators, file names, and how they were calculated is included in the README.txt document. Data sets were used to calculate results are in related references Bennett et al. 2020 and Talsma et al. 2021. Details on the VIC model configuration is described in related references Bennett et al. 2018 and Bennett et al. 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Press and Pulse of Climate Change: Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extremes in temperature and precipitation are associated with damaging floods, prolonged drought, destructive wildfires, agricultural challenges, compromised human health, vulnerable infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems and species. Often, the steady and progressive trends (or presses) of rising global temperature are the central focus in how climate impacts are described. However, observations of extreme weather events (or pulses) increasingly show that the intensity, duration and/or frequency of acute events are also changing, resulting in greater impacts on communities and the environment. Describing how the influence of extreme events may shape water management in the Colorado River Basin in clear terms is critical to sound future planning and efforts to manage risk. Three scenario planning workshops in 2019 and 2020 were held as part of a Colorado River Conversations series, identifying potential impacts from multiple intersecting extreme events. Water managers identified climate-related events of concern in the Colorado River Basin that necessitate greater attention and adaptive responses. To support efforts to include consideration of climate-change-driven extremes in water management and planning, we explore the current state of knowledge at the confluence of long-term climate shifts and extreme weather in the Colorado River Basin related to the events of concern that were identified by scenario planning participants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Datasets for characterizing extreme events relevant to hydrologic design over the conterminous United States

Despite the close linkage between extreme floods and snowmelt, particularly through rain-on-snow (ROS), hydrologic infrastructure is mostly designed based on standard precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (PREC-IDF) that neglect snow processes in runoff generation. For snow-dominated regions, such simplification could result in substantial errors in estimating extreme events and infrastructure design risk. To address this long-standing problem, we applied the Next Generation IDF (NG-IDF) technique to estimate design basis extreme events for different durations and return periods in the conterminous United States (CONUS) to distinctly represent the contribution of rain, snowmelt, and ROS events to the amount of water reaching the land surface. A suite of datasets were developed to characterize the magnitude, trend, seasonality, and dominant mechanism of extreme events for over 200,000 locations. Infrastructure design risk associated with the use of PREC-IDF was estimated. Accuracy of the model simulations used in the analyses was confirmed by long-term snow data at over 200 Snowpack Telemetry stations. The presented spatially continuous datasets are readily usable and instrumental for supporting site-specific infrastructure design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Clustering and Classification of Outage Patterns with Insights into their Links to Extreme Events

At a global level extreme events have increased in both scale and impact. These events have the potential to affect the electrical grid infrastructure and cause a wide range of outages, which can lead to a disruption in daily patterns, cost millions of dollars and also the loss of life. Currently, to track these outage events there have been various approaches developed ranging from regional to national level quantifications for what defines an outage. However, this variation in methods can potentially lead to subjective decision-making and a lack of proper management in relation to the event. While previous work has made strides in determining spatio-temporal patterns, minimal attention has been given to the type and number of outages an area may be exposed to. The differences in incurred cost and the overall severity of an event between a transformer box malfunction and a hurricane are drastic, and by finding historical signals, we can allow for more efficient management, potentially saving lives and millions of dollars. Here, we leverage unsupervised machine learning techniques to delineate outage patterns among 22 counties within the United States and find that there are clear, segregated clusters (0.93 silhouette) of data which are related by event behavior and underlying cause. This finding will allow for energy stakeholders, policy makers, and researchers to gain a deeper understanding of the extent and severity of historic events and to better prepare for electrical grid infrastructure planning and management.

Koob, Benjamin [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: AI and Extreme Events - Overcoming Data Challenges for Improved Characterization of Climate Extremes

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Artificial Intelligence (AI) models require large volumes of data for training and testing. Data requirements present challenges for using AI to explore extreme events with limited observational data. This webinar will showcase two innovative methods developed by part of the European Climate Intelligence (CLINT) project to overcome data challenges and harness AI to improve our understanding of climate extremes. Dr. Ascenso will present his research on data augmentation methods to improve estimates of tropical cyclones using satellite data. His presentation will review established methods for data augmentation and explore opportunities and challenges for using generative AI to generate images of extreme, life-threatening tropical cyclones. Next, Dr. Plesiat will present his research on deep learning techniques to overcome limited observational data sets. His presentation will illustrate deep learning methods to develop AI reconstructions of four climate indices across Europe. Presenters : Dr. Guido Ascenso (post-doctoral researcher, Politecnico di Milano); Dr. Étienne Plésiat (German Climate Computing Centre - DKRZ) Moderator(s): Stefano Galelli (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), David Gold (MSD CoP WG Co-Lead), Jillian Sturtevant (MSD CoP WG Communications Officer), Matteo Giuliani (Politecnico di Milano, MSD CoP WG Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: October 11, 2024 from 11AM - 1PM ET

AI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Extreme Events and Climate Adaptation-Mitigation Linkages: Understanding Low-Carbon Transitions in the Era of Global Urbanization

It has become increasingly clear that cities will have to simultaneously undertake both adaptation and mitigation in response to accelerating climate change and the growing demands for meaningful climate action. Here we examine the connections between climate mitigation and climate adaptation, specifically, between low-carbon energy systems and extreme events. The article specifically addresses the question, how do responses to extreme climate risks enhance or limit capacity to promote city-level greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation? As a step toward answering this question, we present a framework for considering windows of opportunity that may arise as a result of extreme events and how these windows can be exploited to foster development and implementation of low-carbon energy strategies. Four brief case studies are used to provide empirical background and determine the impact of potential windows of opportunity. Some general conclusions are defined. In particular, the existing energy system structure is an important determinant of impact and potential for energy transitions. Well-developed and articulated governance strategies and ready access of effective and economically efficient alternative energy technology were key to transitions. However, prospects for inequity in development and implementation of low-carbon solutions need to be considered. Finally, exploiting windows of opportunity afforded by extreme events for developing low-carbon economy and infrastructure also can provide resilience against those very events. These types of responses will be needed as extreme events increase in frequency and magnitude in the future, with cities as primary sites of impact and action.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Self-Organizing Map-Based Resilience Quantification and Resilient Control of Distribution Systems Under Extreme Events

Due to climate change, extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and with increasing impact. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution system operators (DSO) to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks. To embed resilience into DSO's decision-making, resilience needs to be first quantified and then integrated into the system-level optimization. Therefore, this paper first develops a novel self-organizing map (SOM) based method (called SomRes) to quantify the time-varying resilience index of a system that can leverage the powerful classification property of SOMs and removes some of the disadvantages of subjective weight assignment methods. Using SomRes, a resilient resource allocation and operational dispatch algorithm is further developed to enhance system resilience against extreme events by considering the SomRes resilience index directly as the feedback. Here, the proposed resilience quantification approach is benchmarked with a state-of-the-art approach and the efficacy of the proposed resilient dispatch algorithm is demonstrated through several deterministic and statistical case studies on the IEEE 123-bus distribution system. Simulation studies show that the proposed SomRes quantification method is an appropriate indicator of system resilience, and the resilient resource allocation and dispatch strategy can significantly reduce critical load shedding under varying event propagation scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ripple-Type Voltage Control for Extreme-Event Contingencies: Preprint

Frequent and intense extreme events make grid operation unprecedentedly challenging. Disruptive events could lead to dangerous voltage drops and even voltage collapse if corrective actions are not quickly taken. In this paper, we present a real-time algorithm for voltage control suitable for mitigating electric grid damage scenarios. In our strategy, when agents (generators, substations) experience a dangerous undervoltage, they first respond locally. When the local control resources are depleted, agents seek assistance from peer nodes over a communication network. The algorithm is simulated on a realistic test transmission system. Using fragility curve methodology, we simulate hurricane damages to the components of the synthetic 2000-bus grid representing the ERCOT system. Although being tested over a damaged grid after a hurricane event, our algorithm can be equally successfully applied to any other emergency low-voltage situation.

extreme weather events↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extreme events, energy security and equality through micro- and macro-levels: Concepts, challenges and methods

Low-income households face long-standing challenges of energy insecurity and inequality (EII). During extreme events (e.g., disasters and pandemics) these challenges are especially severe for vulnerable populations reliant on energy for health, education, and well-being. However, many EII studies rarely incorporate the micro- and macro-perspectives of resilience and reliability of energy and internet infrastructure and social-psychological factors. To remedy this gap, we first address the impacts of extreme events on EII among vulnerable populations. Second, we evaluate the driving factors of EII and how they change during disasters. Third, we situate these inequalities within broader energy systems and pinpoint the importance of equitable infrastructure systems by examining infrastructure reliability and resilience and the role of renewable technologies. Then, we consider the factors influencing energy consumption, such as energy practices, socio-psychological factors, and internet access. Finally, we propose interdisciplinary research methods to study these issues during extreme events and provide recommendations.

Chen, CF↗