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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels

Abstract The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia

Low-lying island nations like Indonesia are vulnerable to sea level Height EXtremes (HEXs). When compounded by marine heatwaves, HEXs have larger ecological and societal impact. Here we combine observations with model simulations, to investigate the HEXs and Compound Height-Heat Extremes (CHHEXs) along the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia in recent decades. We find that anthropogenic sea level rise combined with decadal climate variability causes increased occurrence of HEXs during 2010–2017. Both HEXs and CHHEXs are driven by equatorial westerly and longshore northwesterly wind anomalies. For most HEXs, which occur during December-March, downwelling favorable northwest monsoon winds are enhanced but enhanced vertical mixing limits surface warming. For most CHHEXs, wind anomalies associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and co-occurring La Niña weaken the southeasterlies and cooling from coastal upwelling during May-June and November-December. Our findings emphasize the important interplay between anthropogenic warming and climate variability in affecting regional extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts

The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate

For coastal adaptation purposes, it is important to estimate the climate related changes in extreme sea levels due to storm surges and ocean waves, in addition to mean sea level rise. In this study, we provide the first consistent and continuous estimation of projected changes in global storm surges and ocean waves from the past to the warmer future, based on an extremely high resolution global climate model. The spatial pattern in the trend of annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. In the western North Pacific, future TC frequencies are projected to decrease, and the annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights show decreasing trends (-20 cm/century and -200 cm/century). Although highly intense tropical cyclones are enhanced in the warmer climate, highly extreme storm surges and wave heights do not necessarily increase due to the large natural variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hector-FACTS Technical Report & User Guide: Integrating Hector into the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level

The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) platform was developed by (Kopp et al., 2023) as an open-source modular tool capable of generating probabilistic projections for global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City (Kopp et al., 2023). FACTS is the first open-source modular tool designed to explore deep uncertainty in SLR while also synthesizing across different modeling groups and integrating the various components of SLR used in key climate reports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated modeling analysis of estuarine responses to extreme hydrological events and sea-level rise

Estuaries are vulnerable to climate change and are particularly sensitive to extreme river discharge (RD) and sea-level rise (SLR). To understand the effects of extreme RD and SLR on estuaries, an integrated modeling approach is adopted to simulate hydrodynamic changes in the Yangtze River Estuary. Model results showed that SLR will intensify the estuarine hydrodynamics in water level, currents, and salinity. Water level, current speed, and salinity increased linearly with the magnitude of SLR. The hydrological model suggested a lower RD in the future. This will increase the saltwater intrusion, which will be more severe during the lower RD and drought extreme hydrological event (EHE) conditions. Model results also suggested that the saltwater intrusion is more sensitive to RD than SLR. In addition, the interplay between the RD and SLR will exacerbate the impacts of coastal oceans on estuarine hydrodynamics, especially during extremely low RD conditions. Moreover, the decrease of RD and deepening of the channel due to human activities will also amplify the effects of SLR on the Estuary, increasing the risk of coastal disasters.

3-D hydrodynamic model, extreme climate, draught, ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Analyzing Drivers of Change in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that global average temperatures have already risen 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and that the impacts of this warming are visible through sea level rise, extreme heat, droughts, reduced Artic ice and other ways. The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming also concludes that limiting global temperature increases to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius is necessary to ensure the best outcomes for people and planet.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate Adaptation Approaches for Water and Electric Utilities: A compendium of existing strategies in a changing climate

Report analyzes plans developed by water and electric utilities to address the impacts of changes in the climate within their service territories. The analysis identifies the main types of changes that utilities address, such as sea level rise, extreme heat, and compound events such as freezing rain/show and extreme wind events. It then identifies adaptation approaches utilities have proposed or adopted to address the changes that are anticipated in their service territories. The report also identifies the mechanisms utilities (and in some cases the governments which the utilities are part of) use to ensure that energy or environmental equity is increased as a result of the resilience program. In summary, the report provides a compendium of adaptation strategies that can be used by others as they review their own need to increase climate resilience.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Decadal Shift of NAO-Linked Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. Northeast Coast

Recent studies have linked interannual sea level variability and extreme events along the U.S. northeast coast (NEC) to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a natural internal climate mode that prevails in the North Atlantic Ocean. The correlation between the NAO index and coastal sea level north of Cape Hatteras was weak from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, but it has markedly increased since around 1987. The causes for the decadal shift remain unknown. Yet understanding the abrupt change is vital for decadal sea level prediction and is essential for risk management. Here we use a robust method, the Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM), to explore the nonstationary NAO impact on NEC sea level. The results show that a spatial pattern change of NAO-related winds near the NEC is a major cause of the NAO–sea level relationship shift. A new index using regional sea level pressure is developed that is a significantly better predictor of NEC sea level than is the NAO and is strongly linked to the intensity of westerly winds near the NEC. Finally, these results point to the vital importance of monitoring regional changes of wind and sea level pressure patterns, rather than the NAO index alone, to achieve more accurate predictions of sea level change along the NEC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Antecedent conditions determine the biogeochemical response of coastal soils to seawater exposure

Coastal landscapes are increasingly exposed to seawater due to sea level rise and extreme weather events. The biogeochemical responses of these vulnerable ecosystems are poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict how their role in local and global biogeochemical cycles will shift under future conditions. Here we evaluate how antecedent conditions influence the biogeochemical response of soil to seawater inundation events based on a 42-day laboratory incubation experiment with soils collected from a natural salinity gradient across a coastal floodplain. We quantified influences of seawater inundation on intact soil cores through high-frequency carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) gas fluxes measurements as well as ultrahigh resolution characterization of organic matter chemistry and metabolites. Mean CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes were higher after inundation compared to control cores for soils that had low in situ salinity. Soils with low in situ salinity also exhibited significant shifts in organic matter profiles after inundation, with surficial soils (0-7.5 cm) becoming more enriched in phenolic compounds, compared to deeper soils (7.5-15 cm). The number of biochemical transformations inferred from mass spectrometry increased significantly after inundation for soils with low in situ salinity, and a trend of decreasing thermodynamic favorability with increasing salinity was observed, suggesting an increase in microbial activity following inundation. Our results suggest that seawater inundation of low-salinity terrestrial environments can lead to increased microbial activity, preferential depletion of more thermodynamically favorable compounds, and increased soil carbon release. Finally, we conclude that the biogeochemical impacts of future seawater exposure will be modulated by antecedent conditions associated with landscape position within coastal watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Earth's Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades

Abstract Global warming results from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions which upset the delicate balance between the incoming sunlight, and the reflected and emitted radiation from Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe. Despite the fundamental role of the energy imbalance in regulating the climate system, as known to humanity for more than two centuries, our capacity to observe it is rapidly deteriorating as satellites are being decommissioned.

Mauritsen, Thorsten [Department of Meteorology and↗
DOE OSTI2024

New York State Climate Impacts Assessment Chapter 01: Introduction

Abstract New York State's climate is changing. Temperatures are rising, precipitation is increasing, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe. Over time, these changes are projected to worsen. The New York State Climate Impacts Assessment provides a science‐based analysis of what to expect from climate change in New York. Working with partners across the state, the team assembled to produce this assessment reviewed the latest science and modeling to project and characterize what New York State's climate is likely to look like in the future and how this will affect natural systems, society, and various sectors of the economy. The assessment will enable decision‐makers at all levels—from individual residents, businesses, and landowners to municipal and state government agencies—to better understand and make informed choices about how to plan and prepare for climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate Change Science Review 2018 and Associated Social and Economic Impacts

Climate change and its impacts on average temperature, water supply, agriculture, coastal flooding, biodiversity, social and economic stability, human migration, and overall global stability is one of the leading threats emerging for humanity, and is likely to increase as a threat for decades to come. This report represents a snapshot of climate change data, information, and understanding, as of 2018, and can serve as a kind of benchmark for changes going forward in time. This report covers temperature change and heat effects, atmospheric and ocean circulation, freshwater supply changes, sea level rise and flooding, extreme climate events, oceanic deoxygenation, land degredation, social and economic changes, migration, and food. Data and information on all these issues represent a compelling body of knowledge supporting the scientific hypothesis describing climate change, and an important mile marker in our effort to track the unfolding nature of the problem. A slide presentation that summarizes the content of this report is in Appendix A and can serve as an executive summary for the report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Analysis of WRF extreme daily precipitation over Alaska using self‐organizing maps

Abstract We analyze daily precipitation extremes from simulations of a polar‐optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulations cover 19 years and use the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) domain. We focus on Alaska because of its proximity to the Pacific and Arctic oceans; both provide large moisture fetch inland. Alaska's topography also has important impacts on orographically forced precipitation. We use self‐organizing maps (SOMs) to understand circulation characteristics conducive for extreme precipitation events. The SOM algorithm employs an artificial neural network that uses an unsupervised training process, which results in finding general patterns of circulation behavior. The SOM is trained with mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies. Widespread extreme events, defined as at least 25 grid points experiencing 99th percentile precipitation, are examined using SOMs. Widespread extreme days are mapped onto the SOM of MSLP anomalies, indicating circulation patterns. SOMs aid in determining high‐frequency nodes, and hence, circulations are conducive to extremes. Multiple circulation patterns are responsible for extreme days, which are differentiated by where extreme events occur in Alaska. Additionally, several meteorological fields are composited for nodes accessed by extreme and nonextreme events to determine specific conditions necessary for a widespread extreme event. Individual and adjacent node composites produce more physically reasonable circulations as opposed to composites of all extremes, which include multiple synoptic regimes. Temporal evolution of extreme events is also traced through SOM space. Thus, this analysis lays the groundwork for diagnosing differences in atmospheric circulations and their associated widespread, extreme precipitation events.

Glisan, Justin M.↗