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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems

In regions where natural gas is used for both power generation and heating buildings, extreme cold weather events can place the electrical system under enormous stress and challenge the ability to meet residential heating and electric demands. Residential demand response has long been used in the power sector to curtail summer electric load, but these types of programs in general have not seen adoption in the natural gas sector during winter months. Natural gas demand response (NG-DR) has garnered interest given recent extreme cold weather events in the United States; however, the magnitude of savings and potential impacts—to occupants and energy markets—are not well understood. We present a case-study analysis of the technical potential for residential natural gas demand response in the northeast United States that utilizes diverse whole-building energy simulations and high-performance computing. Our results show that NG-DR applied to residential heating systems during extreme cold-weather conditions could reduce natural gas demand by 1–29% based on conservative and aggressive strategies, respectively. This indicates a potential to improve the resilience of gas and electric systems during stressful events, which we examine by estimating the impact on energy costs and electricity generation from natural gas. We also explore relationships between hourly indoor temperatures, demand response, and building envelope efficiency.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Healthy Indoor Air Quality: A Guide to Understanding Pollutants in Extreme Cold Climates

Internal air quality management through commonly supported recommendations in extreme cold weather climates is complicated by cold air infiltration. Air filtration and IAQ monitoring, through central and stand-alone systems can improve internal air quality to the benefit of occupant health and safety. This fact sheet includes reference information for pollutants, sources, health effects, and mitigation strategies.

cold climate↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examination of the Extreme Cold Weather Event Affecting the Power System in Texas - February 2021 [Slides]

This presentation examines the extreme cold weather event that affected the power system in Texas in February 2021. The Texas load-shedding events were caused by a combination of record-high demand and cold weather issues that reduced the output from all types of generation. While some wind turbines were shutting down due to cold temperatures and icing and a lack of cold-weather packages, hourly wind output was accurately predicted. Extreme weather events historically drive grid reliability. Additional examination of more extreme events is needed to understand their impacts on the power system. As a national lab, NREL has the capabilities and facilities to help the industry address these types of challenges. NREL also has significant simulation and analysis capabilities (such as NAERM) that can help understand the impacts of extreme events. NREL also developed the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) Research Platform, which enables evaluation of technologies that smooth grid operations during events like this.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tail Dependence as a Measure of Teleconnected Warm and Cold Extremes of North American Wintertime Temperatures

Current models for spatial extremes are concerned with the joint upper (or lower) tail of the distribution at two or more locations. Such models cannot account for teleconnection patterns of 2-m surface air temperature ( T 2m ) in North America, where very low temperatures in the contiguous United States may coincide with very high temperatures in Alaska in the wintertime. This dependence between warm and cold extremes motivates the need for a model with opposite-tail dependence in spatial extremes. This work develops a statistical modeling framework that has flexible behavior in all four pairings of high and low extremes at pairs of locations. In particular, we use a mixture of rotations of common Archimedean copulas to capture various combinations of four-corner tail dependence. We study teleconnected T 2m extremes using ERA5 of daily average 2-m temperature during the boreal winter. Further, the estimated mixture model quantifies the strength of opposite-tail dependence between warm temperatures in Alaska and cold temperatures in the midlatitudes of North America, as well as the reverse pattern. These dependence patterns are shown to correspond to blocked and zonal patterns of midtropospheric flow. This analysis extends the classical notion of correlation-based teleconnections to considering dependence in higher quantiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Evaluation and Costs of a Combined Ground Source Heat Pump and Solar Photovoltaic Storage System in an Extreme Cold Climate

This report outlines the effectiveness and economics of a ground source heat pump system installed together with solar photovoltaic panels and a battery storage system in a local community building situated in a cold climate. The community building is a tribal building located in Ruby, Alaska. Power from solar photovoltaic panels is supplemented by electricity purchased from the local community microgrid. A ground source heat pump was commissioned three years after the building was occupied, and supplements the heat generated by a boiler for both heat and domestic hot water. Data collected over the 2021-2022 heating season shows that the heat pump is providing heat to the building about 19% of the time with an average coefficient of performance of 2.68, ranging from below 2.5 in winter to above 3.0 in summer. The solar photovoltaic panels provided 4,700 kWh of power used within the building and an additional 2,900 kWh exported to the microgrid. The solar-produced power used within the building nearly offsets the estimated annual electrical draw of the heat pump of 5,700 kWh. Due to the very high costs for shipping and installation to remote locations, projects such as this, while not economically feasible if self-funded, can save the community an estimated $76,051 over a period of 20-years. Fuel prices increasing by more than 25%, or subsidized electricity prices decreasing by more than 25%, make the ground source heat pump a more viable option economically. Unsubsidized electricity prices increasing by 25% or more make a solar photovoltaic system with battery storage nearly economically viable after a 20-year period for commercial or school buildings that are not eligible for Alaska's Power Cost Equalization program.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of heating and cooling loads on battery energy storage system sizing in extreme cold climates

Efficient operation of battery energy storage systems requires that battery temperature remains within a specific range. Current techno-economic models neglect the parasitic loads heating and cooling operations have on these devices, assuming they operate at constant temperature. In this work, these effects are investigated considering the optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems when deployed in cold environments. Here, a peak shaving application is presented as a linear programming problem which is then formulated in the PYOMO optimization programming language. The building energy simulation software EnergyPlus is used to model the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning load of the battery energy storage system enclosure. Case studies are conducted for eight locations in the United States considering a nickel manganese cobalt oxide lithium ion battery type and whether the power conversion system is inside or outside the enclosure. The results show an increase of 42% to 300% in energy capacity size, 43% to 217% in power rating, and 43% to 296% increase in capital cost dependent on location. This analysis shows that the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning load can have a large impact on the optimal sizes and cost of a battery energy storage system and merit consideration in techno-economic studies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integration of Electrolysis Systems Into Isolated Microgrid Systems at Extreme Cold Climates

Isolated microgrid systems are generally used to power communities in remote locations where transmission line installations are cost prohibitive. These systems are usually powered by diesel generators, delivering expensive energy with high carbon emissions. However, most of these communities have special geographic access to renewable energy. These special conditions make it interesting to investigate the deployment of renewable energies and storage solutions. Within this scope, this paper analyses the integration of water electrolysis systems into off-grid communities, simulating the electrolyzer as well as the whole electrical grid in real time.

digital real-time simulation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rational Electrolyte Formulation for Sodium Metal Batteries Operating in Extremely Cold Environments

Sodium metal batteries have shown considerable potential when operated at ambient temperatures. However, their performance in cold environments is constrained by increased electrolyte resistance with decreasing temperature and dendritic sodium plating associated with unstable solid electrolyte interphase (SEI), which are primarily influenced by the electrolyte composition. In this study, we present an electrolyte formulation that remains thermally stable down to −150 °C, which not only facilitates low internal resistance but also contributes to the formation of a protective SEI under cryogenic conditions. When cycled at −40 °C at 1 mA cm −2 , the sodium metal electrode exhibits a low overpotential of only 16 mV over 750 h; even at an ultra-low temperature of −80 °C, the electrode demonstrates remarkable long-term stability with a low overpotential of 54 mV sustained over 1500 h at 0.5 mA cm −2 . Furthermore, full cell evaluations when paring with Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 3 cathode reveal a high average Coulombic efficiency exceeding 99.1% and a capacity retention over 83% after 100 cycles at both −40 °C and −80 °C.

Electrolyte↗
DOE OSTI2026

A worldwide climatology of extreme air masses

Extreme temperature events are among the most damaging weather phenomena. In a warming world, more heat extremes and fewer cold extremes are expected in most regions in the future, a trade-off that warrants further understanding of such events. Here, we track and analyze large, persistent areas of hot and cold extreme temperatures in parallel, relative to the location and time of year, to quantify overall regional exposure to extreme temperatures. To accomplish this, we compare the frequencies, movements, trends, and sources/sinks in each type of extreme air mass, calling them extreme cold or extreme hot air masses (ECAMs/EHAMs). For most land regions, ECAMs occur more often than EHAMs, and ECAMs are more common in each hemisphere’s winter, when cold-air advection is strongest and most widespread. Average movement of ECAMs has a stronger equatorward component in winter than in summer, while movement of EHAMs is eastward all year, with less meridional movement than ECAMs. EHAMs have become more common almost everywhere on land, and the reverse is true for ECAMs, with the strongest trends in the northern hemisphere occurring in autumn, especially in the Arctic. The number of EHAMs around the world is increasing at a higher rate (+ 2.32 events/year) than ECAM numbers are decreasing (-1.27 events/year), causing a net increase in extremes, especially in some midlatitude regions. These results help to document the different processes driving hot and cold extremes, and thus the asymmetric and regionally varying trends in frequency for extreme air masses.

Ryan, James M↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska

The purpose of this report is to determine the effects that extreme cold temperatures have on electric vehicles (EVs) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The adoption of EVs in extreme cold weather presents challenges that require careful analysis of efficiency and charging infrastructure. This report, "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska," explores how EVs and EVSE perform in temperatures as low as -40 degrees C (-40 degrees F), focusing on real-world data from Teslas in Alaskan winter conditions. The findings indicate that EVs can successfully function in extreme cold, though efficiency is significantly affected. Vehicles stored in heated environments outperformed those stored outdoors, with efficiency dropping by up to 69% for outdoor storage. Despite these challenges, none of the vehicles experienced failures that prevented travel. Storing EVs indoors led to benefits such as faster preconditioning and improved efficiency, while charging in extreme cold, though slower, remained functional. Ultimately, the report concludes that with proper precautions and best practices, EVs are viable transportation solutions in cold climates. Investing in enclosed, heated storage is recommended to maximize efficiency and minimize battery strain. As advancements in battery chemistry and thermal management progress, EV adoption in extreme climates is expected to become even more feasible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-performance windows improve thermal survivability of occupants during cold snaps

Exposure to low indoor air temperature is a major contributor to temperature-related mortality during extreme cold events, especially when power outages disrupt operation of space heating systems. This study explores the impact of high-performance windows on the thermal resilience of residential buildings during extreme cold weather and grid power outages, as well as their long-term benefits through energy efficiency and reduced risk of property damage. Building performance simulations were conducted for reference residential buildings in three construction vintages and two major U.S. cities located in cold climate zones, considering two types of extreme cold events: short and severe, and long and milder. Our research found that even houses compliant with current energy codes struggle to maintain safe indoor temperatures for more than a few hours during power outages, necessitating rapid evacuations. High-performance windows can extend the thermal survivability time by up to 3.8 days within a 7-day cold snap and significantly reduce risk of bursting frozen water pipes, depending on the building’s insulation and infiltration level, cold event severity, and occupant vulnerability. This extended thermal safety time is crucial in scenarios where reduced mobility complicates emergency responses in senior housing. In addition to boosting thermal resilience, upgrading older homes with high-performance windows can reduce heating energy consumption by over 18% and cooling energy by 15%. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate thermal resilience assessments into new designs or major retrofits, including the use of typical and extreme weather scenarios and advanced technologies like high-performance windows.

Krelling, Amanda F↗
DOE OSTI2025

Precursors to Extreme Wintertime Cold in the Midwest United States

ABSTRACT Cold air outbreaks (CAOs) are extreme weather events that affect millions of people every winter, including those in the US Midwest. Per our criteria (a sufficiently cold event over a wide area and a long period), we identified 43 wintertime CAOs in the Midwest region using data from 1980 to 2021 (approximately one per year). These occurred in the Midwest during three of five North American weather regimes. Two regimes' CAOs are related to a weak stratospheric polar vortex, consistent with previous research on CAOs in the neighbouring Great Plains region. A different regime, characterised by anomalous ridging along the west coast of North America, is the most common for Midwest CAOs, unlike in regions further to the west. Unlike the other two regimes, these so‐called West Coast Ridge CAOs have no clear stratospheric connection. West Coast Ridge CAOs are instead linked to tropospheric processes on synoptic timescales, usually preceded by a weaker than average mid‐tropospheric height gradient in the western Pacific about 10 days prior to CAO onset. Our results demonstrate a particular challenge for predicting some extreme events in the Midwest, with important implications for early warning systems.

Ryan, James M. [Department of Earth and Atmospheri↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Site Assessment Report for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Chena Site Near Fairbanks, Alaska

This report presents an analysis of the requirements for charging station installation and electric vehicle operation at the US Army Corps of Engineers - Chena Site, located in a cold weather climate in the Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK. The report includes findings from a site visit, and a detailed electric vehicle (EV) charging site plan with cost estimates. Cost for three 50-ampere pedestal chargers located on the edge of the existing parking lot is estimated at $\$$53,100, and the cost of three 80-ampere chargers is estimated at $\$$89,400. The authors did not assess the cost of a heated garage. The USACE Chena site reaches extreme cold temperatures of -40 Degrees Celsius (-40 Degrees Fahrenheit) and below in a typical winter, often for days on end. Considerations of operating EVs as well as electrical vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at this site can be applicable to other cold or extremely cold locations. Interviews with EV users in cold climates and a literature review indicated that EVs operate well but have significantly decreased range compared to 21 Degrees Celsius (70 Degrees Fahrenheit) operations. Some strategies such as prewarming the vehicle while it is plugged in and using heated seats and steering wheel instead of cabin heat, can improve cold weather performance. Storing the EV in a garage would mean the battery and cabin are automatically preheated, the battery would not age as rapidly as when the vehicle is stored outside, and problems with charging the vehicle are less likely. Lowest temperate-rated Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE), as electric vehicle chargers are known as, are rated to -40 Degrees Celsius (-40 Degrees Fahrenheit), and sometimes malfunction. No EVSE is rated to the temperatures that USACE Chena site experienced for more than a week in winter 2023-4, of -50 Degrees Celsius (-45 Degrees Fahrenheit) and which are typical for the area. If reliability is a must, entities may want to consider a heated garage to minimize potential problems with charging equipment. There is a companion technical report to this titled "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska" that examines the data on EV and EVSE cold-weather functionality in more detail. (Esparza, Truffer Moudra, and Hodge 2024).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5° and 2.0° warmer world

In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model’s historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Different Strategies of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Would Significantly Affect Climate Extreme Mitigation

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a potential supplement to mitigate some climate impacts of anthropogenic warming. Using Community Earth System Model ensemble simulation results, we analyze the response of temperature and precipitation extremes to two different SAI strategies: one injects SO 2 at the equator to stabilize global mean temperature and the other injects SO 2 at multiple locations to stabilize global mean temperature as well as the interhemispheric and equator‐to‐pole temperature gradients. Our analysis shows that in the late 21st century, compared with the present‐day climate, both equatorial and multi‐location injection lead to reduced hot extremes in the tropics, corresponding to overcooling of the mean climate state. In mid‐to‐high latitude regions, in comparison to the present‐day climate, substantial decreases in cold extremes are observed under both equatorial and multi‐location injection, corresponding to residual winter warming of the mean climate state. Both equatorial and multi‐location injection reduce precipitation extremes in the tropics below the present‐day level, associated with the decrease in mean precipitation. Overall, for most regions, temperature and precipitation extremes show reduced change in response to multi‐location injection than to equatorial injection, corresponding to reduced mean climate change for multi‐location injection. In comparison with equatorial injection, in response to multi‐location injection, most land regions experience fewer years with significant change in cold extremes from the present‐day level, and most tropical regions experience fewer years with significant change in hot extremes. The design of SAI strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate extremes merits further study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling of Extreme Stratospheric Wave Activity in CMIP6 Models

Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been suggested to be connected to surface temperature anomalies, but some key processes are not well understood. Using observations, we show that the stratospheric events featuring weaker-than-normal wave activity are associated with increased North American (NA) cold extreme risks before and near the event onset, accompanied by less frequent atmospheric river (AR) events on the west coast of the United States. Strong stratospheric wave events, on the other hand, exhibit a tropospheric weather regime transition. Further, they are preceded by NA warm anomalies and increased AR frequency over the west coast, followed by increased risks of NA cold extremes and north-shifted ARs over the Atlantic. Moreover, these links between the stratosphere and troposphere are attributed to the vertical structure of wave coupling. Weak wave events show a wave structure of westward tilt with increasing altitudes, while strong wave events feature a shift from westward tilt to eastward tilt during their life cycle. This wave phase shift indicates vertical wave coupling and likely regional planetary wave reflection. Further examinations of CMIP6 models show that models with a degraded representation of stratospheric wave structure exhibit biases in the troposphere during strong wave events. Specifically, models with a stratospheric ridge weaker than the reanalysis exhibit a weaker tropospheric signal. Our findings suggest that the vertical coupling of extreme stratospheric wave activity should be evaluated in the model representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cold-air outbreaks in the continental US: Connections with stratospheric variations

Mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere extreme cold events continue to occur despite overall winter warming trends. These events have been linked to weakened stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) states. In this study, we analyze both the upper and lower polar stratosphere for links to extreme winter cold and snow in the continental US, finding two SPV variations of interest. The first features an upper-level vortex displaced toward western Canada and linked to northwestern US severe winter weather. The second features a weakened upper-level vortex displaced toward the North Atlantic and linked to central-eastern US severe winter weather. Both variations feature lower-level stretched vortices and stratospheric wave reflection. Since 2015, a northwestward shift in severe winter weather across the US is concurrent with an increase in the frequency of the westward-focused variation relative to the eastward-focused variation and a shift to more negative phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗