COMPARISON OF VALVE FAILURE RATES ESTIMATED FROM FIELD FAILURE DATA TO THOSE PREDICTED BY CALIBRATED FMEDA
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HARRIS, STEPHEN P.↗
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Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction
Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can be achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Correlation of Advanced Accelerated Stress Testing with Polyamide-Based Photovoltaic Backsheet Field-Failures
Cracking of polyamide (PA)-based photovoltaic (PV) backsheet materials has been widely reported for field-aged modules. Failure was not detected by conventional accelerated stress tests (ASTs), which lacked the necessary combination of stress factors and/or factor sequences. PA-based AAA backsheet cracking has since been reproduced through combined and sequential stress testing. Planar- and cross-sectional-optical microscopy as well as Fourier-transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), have been used to elucidate the mechanical and chemical changes which lead to failure of the backsheet. Field-aged backsheet samples demonstrating failure in various climates (including locations in China and Italy) are also analyzed. Through the analysis, a comparison is made between the different stress testing protocols and the field-aged samples to validate relevance of the advanced stress tests. It is shown that the changes induced through combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) were most representative of changes induced by the field, supporting the relevance of C-AST and providing validity for the test protocol.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Evaluation of Component Reliability in Photovoltaic Systems using Field Failure Statistics
Ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M) are needed to ensure photovoltaic (PV) systems continue to operate and meet production targets over the lifecycle of the system. Although average costs to operate and maintain PV systems have been decreasing over time, reported costs can vary significantly at the plant level. Estimating O&M costs accurately is important for informing financial planning and tracking activities, and subsequently lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of PV systems. This report describes a methodology for improving O&M planning estimates by using empirically-derived failure statistics to capture component reliability in the field. The report also summarizes failure patterns observed for specific PV components and local environmental conditions observed in Sandia's PV Reliability, Operations & Maintenance (PVROM) database, a collection of field records across 800+ systems in the U.S. Where system-specific or fleet-specific data are lacking, PVROM-derived failure distribution values can be used to inform cost modeling and other reliability analyses to evaluate opportunities for performance improvements.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Screening Metal Halide Perovskite Solar Modules for Premature Field Failures
Developing metal halide perovskite (MHP) photovoltaic (PV) devices into reliable large-area solar modules could accelerate global solar energy deployment. Many MHP devices are susceptible to degradation under light and elevated temperature (LT). Published research on LT testing is limited at the module level, and LT testing has not yet been developed for qualification testing of commercial PV products. This report assesses whether results of LT testing at moderately elevated temperatures correlate with those of field-tested modules from the same batch. Six batches of samples from four manufacturers are assessed. It is shown that modules with a robust package that can maintain over 80% of their peak efficiency during LT testing at 55 °C for 100 h are more likely to retain over 80% of their peak efficiency during outdoor operation for 10 weeks. This finding is a step towards developing a validated test protocol that could be incorporated into a qualification standard for the commercialization of MHP PV technologies.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Salvage Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy (SBRT) Following In-Field Failure of Initial SBRT for Spinal Metastases
Purpose: We report our experience in salvaging spinal metastases initially irradiated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), who subsequently progressed with imaging-confirmed local tumor progression, and were re-irradiated with a salvage second SBRT course to the same level. Methods and Materials: From a prospective database, 56 metastatic spinal segments in 40 patients were identified as having been irradiated with a salvage second SBRT course to the same level. In addition, 24 of 56 (42.9%) segments had initially been irradiated with conventional external beam radiation therapy before the first course of SBRT. Local control (LC) was defined as no progression on magnetic resonance imaging at the treated segment, and calculated according to the competing risk model. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated for each patient treated by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: The median salvage second SBRT total dose and number of fractions was 30 Gy in 4 fractions (range, 20-35 Gy in 2-5 fractions), and for the first course of SBRT was 24 Gy in 2 fractions (range, 20-35 Gy in 1-5 fractions). The median follow-up time after salvage second SBRT was 6.8 months (range, 0.9-39 months), the median OS was 10.0 months, and the 1-year OS rate was 48%. A longer time interval between the first and second SBRT courses predicted for better OS (P=.02). The crude LC was 77% (43/56), the 1-year LC rate was 81%, and the median time to local failure was 3.0 months (range, 2.7-16.7 months). Of the 13 local failures, 85% (11/13) and 46% (6/13) showed progression within the epidural space and paraspinal soft tissues, respectively. Absence of baseline paraspinal disease predicted for better LC (P<.01). No radiation-induced vertebral compression fractures or cases of myelopathy were observed. Conclusion: A second course of spine SBRT, most often with 30 Gy in 4 fractions, for spinal metastases that failed initial SBRT is a feasible and efficacious salvage treatment option.
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
Properties of Encapsulation Materials and Their Relevance for Recent Field Failures
Abstract not provided
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Connector Failures Field and Lab Findings: Macro-level Forensics
5 min panel presentation for the EPRI connector workshop.
DiGregorio, Steven John↗
Stage III Melanoma in the Axilla: Patterns of Regional Recurrence After Surgery With and Without Adjuvant Radiation Therapy
Purpose: To describe the anatomic distribution of regionally recurrent disease in patients with stage III melanoma in the axilla after curative-intent surgery with and without adjuvant radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: A single-institution, retrospective analysis of a prospective database of 277 patients undergoing curative-intent treatment for stage III melanoma in the axilla between 1992 and 2012 was completed. For patients who received radiation therapy and those who did not, patterns of regional recurrence were analyzed, and univariate analyses were performed to assess for potential factors associated with location of recurrence. Results: There were 121 patients who received adjuvant radiation therapy because their clinicopathologic features conferred a greater risk of regional recurrence. There were 156 patients who received no radiation therapy. The overall axillary control rate was 87%. There were 37 patients with regional recurrence; 17 patients had received adjuvant radiation therapy (14%), and 20 patients (13%) had not. The likelihood of in-field nodal recurrence was significantly less in the adjuvant radiation therapy group (P=.01) and significantly greater in sites adjacent to the axilla (P=.02). Patients with high-risk clinicopathologic features who did not receive adjuvant radiation therapy also tended to experience in-field failure rather than adjacent-field failure. Conclusions: Patients who received adjuvant radiation therapy were more likely to experience recurrence in the adjacent-field regions rather than in the in-field regions. This may not simply reflect higher-risk pathology. Using this data, it may be possible to improve outcomes by reducing the number of adjacent-field recurrences after adjuvant radiation therapy.
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
SU-F-P-52: A Meta-Analysis of Controlled Clinical Trials Comparing Elective Nodal Irradiation with Involved-Field Irradiation for Conformal Or Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy in Patients with Esophageal Cancer
Purpose: To compare elective nodal irradiation with involved-field irradiation for three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy or intensity-modulated radiotherapy in patients with esophageal cancer by a metaanalysis. Methods: Wanfang, CNKI, VIP, CBM databases, PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library were searched to identify the controlled clinical trials of elective nodal irradiation with involved-field irradiation for three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy or intensity-modulated radiotherapy in patients with esophageal cancer. The obtained data were analyzed using Stata 11.0. The difference between two groups was estimated by calculating the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI). Results: A total of 12 controlled clinical trials involving 1095 esophageal cancer patients, which were selected according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, were included in this meta-analysis. The meta-analysis showed that the elective nodal irradiation group reduced the rates of out-field failure comparing with involved-field irradiation group (OR=3.727, P=0.007). However, the rates of ≥grades 3 acute radiation pneumonitis and esophagitis were significantly higher in the elective nodal irradiation group than in the involved-field irradiation group (OR=0.348, P=0.001, OR=0.385, P=0.000). 1-, 2-, 3-year local control rates (OR=0.966, P=0.837, OR=0.946, P=0.781; OR=0.732P=0.098) and 1-, 3-, 5-year survival rates were similar in the two groups ( OR=0.966, P=0.837; OR=0.946, P=0.781; OR=0.732, P=0.098; OR=0.952, P=0.756; OR=1.149, P=0.422; OR=0.768, P=0.120). It is the same with the rates of distant metastasis (OR=0.986, P=0.937). Conclusion: Compared with involved-field irradiation, the elective nodal irradiation can reduce the rates of out-field failure for three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy or intensity-modulated radiotherapy in patients with esophageal cancer. However, its advantage of local control and survival rates is not obvious and it increases the incidence of toxicities.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
SU-F-BRD-16: Under Dose Regions Recalculated by Monte Carlo Cannot Predict the Local Failure for NSCLC Patients Treated with SBRT
Purpose: To investigate whether Monte Carlo (MC) recalculated dose distributions can predict the geometric location of the recurrence for nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). Methods: Thirty NSCLC patients with local recurrence were retrospectively selected for this study. The recurred gross target volumes (rGTV) were delineated on the follow-up CT/PET images and then rigidly transferred via imaging fusion to the original planning CTs. Failure pattern was defined according to the overlap between the rGTV and planning GTV (pGTV) as: (a) in-field failure (≥80%), (b) marginal failure (20%–80%), and (c) out-of-field failure (≤20%). All clinical plans were calculated initially with pencil beam (PB) with or without heterogeneity correction dependent of protocols. These plans were recalculated with MC with heterogeneity correction. Because of non-uniform dose distributions in the rGTVs, the rGTVs were further divided into four regions: inside the pGTV (GTVin), inside the PTV (PTVin), outside the pGTV (GTVout), and outside the PTV (PTVout). The mean doses to these regions were reported and analyzed separately. Results: Among 30 patients, 10 patients had infield recurrences, 15 marginal and 5 out-of-field failures. With MC calculations, D95 and D99 of the PTV were reduced by (10.6 ± 7.4)% and (11.7 ± 7.9)%. The average MC calculated mean doses of GTVin, GTVout, PTVin and PTVout were 48.2 ± 5.3 Gy, 48.2 ± 5.5 Gy, 46.3 ± 6.2 Gy and 46.6 ± 5.6 Gy, respectively. No significant dose differences between GTVin and GTVout (p=0.65), PTVin and PTVout (p=0.19) were observed, using the paired students t-test. Conclusion: Although the PB calculations underestimated the tumor target doses, the geometric location of the recurrence did not correlate with the mean doses of subsections of the recurrent GTV. Under dose regions recalculated by MC cannot predict the local failure for NSCLC patients treated with SBRT.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Assessing the Causes of Encapsulant Delamination in PV Modules
Delamination of the encapsulant is one of the most prevalent PV module field failures. This paper will present examples of various types of delaminations that have been observed in the field. It will then discuss the development of accelerated stress tests designed to duplicate those field failures and thus provide tools for avoiding them in the future.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Towards Validation of Advanced Accelerated Stress Testing Protocols through Failure Analysis and Materials Characterization
As the lifetime of photovoltaic modules increases toward the goal of 50 years, accelerated stress testing is critical to assessing the viability of newer, improved, and often cheaper materials in the field. However, the validation of accelerated testing to reproduce field failure has remained elusive. The recent developments of more advanced stress testing protocols utilizing sequential and combined stressors have provided another opportunity for validation. Using a suite of mechanical, chemical, and structural characterization methods we report the development of our approach using a known bad backsheet “AAA.” We then apply this approach to PVDF-based backsheets to further confirm the generalizability of this approach. The outcome of this work is two-fold: (1) validation of advanced accelerated testing protocols which will enable the prediction of field failures in new materials, and (2) deeper insights into the degradation mechanisms observed through the extensive characterization allowing for improved materials engineering and development.
accelerated aging↗
Development of Testing Methods to Predict Cracking in Photovoltaic Backsheets
In recent years there have been some significant failures of photovoltaic backsheets resulting from inadequacies of design that are not detected in current versions of the qualification standards. In some cases, this has resulted in catastrophic failure in less than 5 y of deployment. In this work, we develop a test sample construction and evaluate accelerated exposure conditions necessary to duplicate the cracking field failure of backsheets using a small and manageable coupon. This sample uses a piece of solder wire to put some controlled topology and stress into the backsheet. Through exposure to different environmental stressors it was found that the application of thermal cycling stresses, after ultraviolet radiation exposure, is of primary importance to duplicate field failures.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Generalized Spatio-Temporal Model of Backsheet Degradation From Field Surveys of Photovoltaic Modules
Photovoltaic (PV) module backsheets degrade at different rates because of the specific polymeric materials and the local exposure environments of the installations. Studies of real-world backsheet degradation provide valuable information to understand backsheet degradation and failure. Field surveys of PV module backsheets were conducted on 1310 modules in four commercial PV power plant sites with different exposure times. The backsheet's local exposure environment is determined by its location along the rack length and depth, the modules' elevation above the ground, and the ground cover albedo. Backsheets that are installed at the ends of the module rack length exhibit larger degradation rates (with yellowness index difference of 1.14 $\pm$ 0.45 and 7.80 $\pm$ 1.3 for backsheets of poly (ethylene terephthalate) and poly (ethylene naphthalate) as the air-side layer, respectively) than backsheets in the center section of the rack. A generalized spatio-temporal model was developed to predict the large-scale backsheet degradation of different backsheet polymers across time/age and location in the PV power plant rack. The model utilizes a cubic-spline relationship between backsheet degradation and rack length, and a quadratic relationship between backsheet discoloration and rack depth. This generalized spatio-temporal model predicts the outdoor backsheet degradation with an adjusted- $R^2$ range between 0.31 to 0.89. The similarity between this model and the spatial variation of the rear-side irradiance, indicates that the irradiance plays a significant role in outdoor backsheet degradation. The generalized spatio-temporal model can be used to evaluate large scale PV backsheet performance, as well as a guidance for PV site designers and operations and maintenance crews.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Innovative Method for Welding in Generation 3 CSP to Enable Reliable Manufacturing of Solar Receivers to withstand Daily Cycling at Temperatures Above 700°C (Final Technical Report)
Inconel® Alloy 740H® (alloy 740H) was the first age-hardenable nickel-based alloy approved by the ASME Boiler & Pressure Vessel Code for use in pressure-boundary applications. Over the past ~20 years the alloy has been optimized for weldability and high-temperature stability, approved for use in different applications. Development of a supply chain combined with the advantageous properties of the alloy (high-temperature creep strength, oxidation and corrosion resistance, etc.) have resulted in the alloy being applied to new high-temperature power cycle demonstration projects, and of particular interest are applications to concentrating solar power (CSP) to enable higher-efficiency Generation 3 CSP systems and the corresponding supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) power cycle components (heat exchangers, piping, etc.). The high allowable stresses of alloy 740H also make it a desirable material for current Generation 2 CSP solar power receivers to improve cyclic capability and/or reduce receiver height. Recent experiences in demonstration projects utilizing alloy 740H identified cracking issues during welding and fabrication. In this project, a detailed study was done to confirm and clarify the Stress Relaxation Cracking (SRxC) mechanism, also known as stress relief cracking or strain-age cracking (SAC), during post-weld heat-treatment (PWHT). This involved detailed microscopy and advanced characterization to understand the root cause(s) of three failures obtained from industry. Based in-part on these findings, a targeted laboratory based SRxC test method was utilized to evaluate variables such as heat-to-heat variations, strain level, PWHT temperature, and starting material condition on three heats of alloy 740H. Industrial shop welding of cold-worked plates was also conducted. The research showed the following: SRxC was confirmed as the cracking mechanism for all field failures; Stress state (from residual stresses, constraint, deformation, and local stress concentrations) was playing a significant role in field failures and laboratory testing confirmed increasing susceptibility for all heats with increasing strain levels. High levels of microstructural strain were identified at crack initiation locations, in some cases leading to local recrystallization; Precipitate free zones (PFZs) at grain boundaries were found at relaxation cracks and crack initiation locations uniquely associated with SRxC in alloy 740H. Laboratory testing reproduced this microstructural feature which had only previously been reported in long-term creep testing of weldments. Advanced nano-scale characterization confirmed the presence of a moving boundary leading to coarsening of precipitates and PFZs where damage accumulated; The research suggested heat-to-heat variations due to local chemistry and processing may influence SRxC susceptibility, but more work is needed to fully clarify these effects. To disseminate the key learnings from this research to the scientific and engineering communities and alloy 740H end users, multiple technical publications and presentations were made, an industrial alloy 740H users meeting was held, and a new industry guideline specification document which can be directly implemented by end-users of alloy 740H was produced.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Microstructure changes during failure of PVDF-based photovoltaic backsheets
The backsheet layer of a solar module provides a safety and environmental barrier to the high voltages running through the photovoltaic (PV) cells and electrical contacts within the core of the module. However, in the past decade, backsheet cracking has become one of the most observed failure modes in PV module field surveys. In this work, the degradation of polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF)-based backsheets is explored. Backsheet samples are either exposed to accelerated laboratory aging (UV light, heat, and moisture) or collected from the field. Fourier transform infrared and Raman spectroscopy, fragmentation testing, atomic force and scanning electron microscopy, and small-angle neutron scattering are combined to develop an understanding of how chemistry and microstructure evolve during aging. Chemical degradation, surface pitting, polymer phase changes, and anisotropic polymer domains are all observed in aged backsheet samples. The results provide insight into the degradation mechanisms that lead to cracking and field failure of PVDF-based backsheets. The comparison of aged PVDF-based backsheets helps to lay the groundwork for limiting polymer-based failure modes in PV modules.
PVDF↗
Failure propagation in multi-cell lithium ion batteries
Traditionally, safety and impact of failure concerns of lithium ion batteries have dealt with the field failure of single cells. However, large and complex battery systems require the consideration of how a single cell failure will impact the system as a whole. Initial failure that leads to the thermal runaway of other cells within the system creates a much more serious condition than the failure of a single cell. This work examines the behavior of small modules of cylindrical and stacked pouch cells after thermal runaway is induced in a single cell through nail penetration trigger [1] within the module. Cylindrical cells are observed to be less prone to propagate, if failure propagates at all, owing to the limited contact between neighboring cells. However, the electrical connectivity is found to be impactful as the 10S1P cylindrical cell module did not show failure propagation through the module, while the 1S10P module had an energetic thermal runaway consuming the module minutes after the initiation failure trigger. Modules built using pouch cells conversely showed the impact of strong heat transfer between cells. In this case, a large surface area of the cells was in direct contact with its neighbors, allowing failure to propagate through the entire battery within 60-80 seconds for all configurations (parallel or series) tested. This work demonstrates the increased severity possible when a point failure impacts the surrounding battery system.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗