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At least 19 records

Performance Data Errors in Air Carrier Operations: Causes and Countermeasures

Several airline accidents have occurred in recent years as the result of erroneous weight or performance data used to calculate V-speeds, flap/trim settings, required runway lengths, and/or required climb gradients. In this report we consider 4 recent studies of performance data error, report our own study of ASRS-reported incidents, and provide countermeasures that can reduce vulnerability to accidents caused by performance data errors. Performance data are generated through a lengthy process involving several employee groups and computer and/or paper-based systems. Although much of the airline indUStry 's concern has focused on errors pilots make in entering FMS data, we determined that errors occur at every stage of the process and that errors by ground personnel are probably at least as frequent and certainly as consequential as errors by pilots. Most of the errors we examined could in principle have been trapped by effective use of existing procedures or technology; however, the fact that they were not trapped anywhere indicates the need for better countermeasures. Existing procedures are often inadequately designed to mesh with the ways humans process information. Because procedures often do not take into account the ways in which information flows in actual flight ops and time pressures and interruptions experienced by pilots and ground personnel, vulnerability to error is greater. Some aspects of NextGen operations may exacerbate this vulnerability. We identify measures to reduce the number of errors and to help catch the errors that occur.

countermeasures↗

Flight Evaluation of Center-TRACON Automation System Trajectory Prediction Process

Two flight experiments (Phase 1 in October 1992 and Phase 2 in September 1994) were conducted to evaluate the accuracy of the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) trajectory prediction process. The Transport Systems Research Vehicle (TSRV) Boeing 737 based at Langley Research Center flew 57 arrival trajectories that included cruise and descent segments; at the same time, descent clearance advisories from CTAS were followed. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared with the trajectories predicted by the CTAS trajectory synthesis algorithms and airplane Flight Management System (FMS). Trajectory prediction accuracy was evaluated over several levels of cockpit automation that ranged from a conventional cockpit to performance-based FMS vertical navigation (VNAV). Error sources and their magnitudes were identified and measured from the flight data. The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. The most significant effect related to flight guidance was the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. FMS lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and airplane performance model errors.

Williams, David H.↗

Evaluation of Trajectory Errors in an Automated Terminal-Area Environment

A piloted simulation experiment was conducted to document the trajectory errors associated with use of an airplane's Flight Management System (FMS) in conjunction with a ground-based ATC automation system, Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) in the terminal area. Three different arrival procedures were compared: current-day (vectors from ATC), modified (current-day with minor updates), and data link with FMS lateral navigation. Six active airline pilots flew simulated arrivals in a fixed-base simulator. The FMS-datalink procedure resulted in the smallest time and path distance errors, indicating that use of this procedure could reduce the CTAS arrival-time prediction error by about half over the current-day procedure. Significant sources of error contributing to the arrival-time error were crosstrack errors and early speed reduction in the last 2-4 miles before the final approach fix. Pilot comments were all very positive, indicating the FMS-datalink procedure was easy to understand and use, and the increased head-down time and workload did not detract from the benefit. Issues that need to be resolved before this method of operation would be ready for commercial use include development of procedures acceptable to controllers, better speed conformance monitoring, and FMS database procedures to support the approach transitions.

Oseguera-Lohr, Rosa M.↗

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗

An Experimental Study of the Effects of Automation on Pilot Situational Awareness in the Datalink ATC Environment

An experiment to study how automation, when used in conjunction with datalink for the delivery of air traffic control (ATC) clearance amendments, affects the situational awareness of aircrews was conducted. The study was focused on the relationship of situational awareness to automated Flight Management System (FMS) programming and the readback of ATC clearances. Situational awareness was tested by issuing nominally unacceptable ATC clearances and measuring whether the error was detected by the subject pilots. The experiment also varied the mode of clearance delivery: Verbal, Textual, and Graphical. The error detection performance and pilot preference results indicate that the automated programming of the FMS may be superior to manual programming. It is believed that automated FMS programming may relieve some of the cognitive load, allowing pilots to concentrate on the strategic implications of a clearance amendment. Also, readback appears to have value, but the small sample size precludes a definite conclusion. Furthermore, because textual and graphical modes of delivery offer different but complementary advantages for cognitive processing, a combination of these modes of delivery may be advantageous in a datalink presentation.

Hahn, Edward C.↗

Understanding Extended Projected Profile (EPP) Trajectory Error Using a Medium-Fidelity Aircraft Simulation

A critical component of Trajectory-Based Operations is the ability for a consistent and accurate 4-dimensional trajectory to be shared and synchronized between airborne and ground systems as well as amongst various ground automation systems. The Aeronautical Telecommunication Network—Baseline 2 standard defines the Extended Projected Profile (EPP) trajectory that can be sent via Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Contract from an aircraft to ground automation. The EPP trajectory message contains a representation of the reference trajectory from an aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS). In this work, a set of scenarios were run in a medium-fidelity aircraft and FMS simulation to perform an initial characterization of EPP trajectory errors under a given set of conditions. The parameters investigated were the route length, route type, wind magnitude error, wind direction error, and with and without a required time-of-arrival constraint.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

Preliminary Error Characterization and Parametric Error Model for the Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Contract Extended Projected Profile Message

A critical component of Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) is the ability for a consistent and accurate 4-dimensional trajectory (4DT) to be shared and synchronized between airborne and ground systems as well as amongst various ground automation systems. The Aeronautical Telecommunication Network—Baseline 2 (ATN-B2) standard defines the Extended Projected Profile (EPP) trajectory that can be sent via Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Contract (ADS-C) from an aircraft to ground automation. The EPP trajectory message contains a representation of the reference trajectory from an aircraft’s Flight Management System (FMS). In this work, a set of scenarios were run in a high-fidelity aircraft and FMS simulation to perform an initial characterization of EPP trajectory errors under a given set of conditions. The parameters investigated were the route length, route type, wind magnitude error, wind direction error, and with and without a required time-of-arrival (RTA) constraint. In addition, linear regression was used to identify a set of EPP error models for the cross-track, vertical, and time errors.

Guerreiro, Nelson M.↗

Experimental studies on the effect of automation on pilot situational awareness in the datalink ATC environment

An experiment to study how automation, when used in conjunction with datalink for the delivery of ATC clearance amendments, affects the situational awareness of aircrews was conducted. The study was focused on the relationship of situational awareness to automated Flight Management System (FMS) programming of datalinked clearances and the readback of ATC clearances. Situational awareness was tested by issuing nominally unacceptable ATC clearances and measuring whether the error was detected by the subject pilots. The experiment also varied the mode of clearance delivery: Verbal, Textual, and Graphical. The error detection performance and pilot preference results indicate that the automated programming of the FMS may be superior to manual programming. It is believed that automated FMS programming may relieve some of the cognitive load, allowing pilots to concentrate on the strategic implications of a clearance amendment. Also, readback appears to have value, but the small sample size precludes a definite conclusion. Furthermore, because textual and graphical modes of delivery offer different but complementary advantages for cognitive processing, a combination of these modes of delivery may be advantageous in a datalink presentation.

Hahn, Edward C.↗

Flight Management System Execution of Idle-Thrust Descents in Operations

To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent trajectories. To support development of the trajectory predictor and its error models, commercial flights executed idle-thrust descents, and the recorded data includes the target speed profile and FMS intent trajectories. The FMS computes the intended descent path assuming idle thrust after top of descent (TOD), and any intervention by the controllers that alters the FMS execution of the descent is recorded so that such flights are discarded from the analysis. The horizontal flight path, cruise and meter fix altitudes, and actual TOD location are extracted from the radar data. Using more than 60 descents in Boeing 777 aircraft, the actual speeds are compared to the intended descent speed profile. In addition, three aspects of the accuracy of the FMS intent trajectory are analyzed: the meter fix crossing time, the TOD location, and the altitude at the meter fix. The actual TOD location is within 5 nmi of the intent location for over 95% of the descents. Roughly 90% of the time, the airspeed is within 0.01 of the target Mach number and within 10 KCAS of the target descent CAS, but the meter fix crossing time is only within 50 sec of the time computed by the FMS. Overall, the aircraft seem to be executing the descents as intended by the designers of the onboard automation.

Stell, Laurel L.↗

Analysis of Flight Management System Predictions of Idle-Thrust Descents

To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent trajectories. To support development of the predictor and its uncertainty models, descents from cruise to the meter fix were executed using vertical navigation in a B737-700 simulator and a B777-200 simulator, both with commercial FMSs. For both aircraft types, the FMS computed the intended descent path for a specified speed profile assuming idle thrust after top of descent (TOD), and then it controlled the avionics without human intervention. The test matrix varied aircraft weight, descent speed, and wind conditions. The first analysis in this paper determined the effect of the test matrix parameters on the FMS computation of TOD location, and it compared the results to those for the current ground predictor in the Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA). The second analysis was similar but considered the time to fly a specified distance to the meter fix. The effects of the test matrix variables together with the accuracy requirements for the predictor will determine the allowable error for the predictor inputs. For the B737, the EDA prediction of meter fix crossing time agreed well with the FMS; but its prediction of TOD location probably was not sufficiently accurate to enable idle-thrust descents in congested airspace, even though the FMS and EDA gave similar shapes for TOD location as a function of the test matrix variables. For the B777, the FMS and EDA gave different shapes for the TOD location function, and the EDA prediction of the TOD location is not accurate enough to fully enable the concept. Furthermore, the differences between the FMS and EDA predictions of meter fix crossing time for the B777 indicated that at least one of them was not sufficiently accurate.

Stell, Laurel↗

Design and Testing of a Low Noise Flight Guidance Concept

A flight guidance concept was developed to assist in flying continuous descent approach (CDA) procedures designed to lower the noise under the flight path of jet transport aircraft during arrival operations at an airport. The guidance consists of a trajectory prediction algorithm that was tuned to produce a high-efficiency, low noise flight profile with accompanying autopilot and flight display elements needed by the flight control system and pilot to fly the approach. A key component of the flight guidance was a real-time display of energy error relative to the predicted flight path. The guidance was integrated with the conventional Flight Management System (FMS) guidance of a modern jet transport airplane and tested in a high fidelity flight simulation. A charted arrival procedure, which allowed flying conventional arrivals, CDA arrivals with standard guidance, and CDA arrivals with the new low noise guidance, was developed to assist in the testing and evaluation of the low noise guidance concept. Results of the simulation testing showed the low noise guidance was easy to use by airline pilot test subjects and effective in achieving the desired noise reduction. Noise under the flight path was reduced by at least 2 decibels in Sound Exposure Level (SEL) at distances from about 3 nautical miles out to about 17.5 nautical miles from the runway, with a peak reduction of 8.5 decibels at about 10.5 nautical miles. Fuel consumption was also reduced by about 17% for the LNG conditions compared to baseline runs for the same flight distance. Pilot acceptance and understanding of the guidance was quite high with favorable comments and ratings received from all test subjects.

Williams, David H.↗

Airborne Four-Dimensional Flight Management in a Time-based Air Traffic Control Environment

Advanced Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems are being developed which contain time-based (4D) trajectory predictions of aircraft. Airborne flight management systems (FMS) exist or are being developed with similar 4D trajectory generation capabilities. Differences between the ATC generated profiles and those generated by the airborne 4D FMS may introduce system problems. A simulation experiment was conducted to explore integration of a 4D equipped aircraft into a 4D ATC system. The NASA Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle cockpit simulator was linked in real time to the NASA Ames Descent Advisor ATC simulation for this effort. Candidate procedures for handling 4D equipped aircraft were devised and traffic scenarios established which required time delays absorbed through speed control alone or in combination with path stretching. Dissimilarities in 4D speed strategies between airborne and ATC generated trajectories were tested in these scenarios. The 4D procedures and FMS operation were well received by airline pilot test subjects, who achieved an arrival accuracy at the metering fix of 2.9 seconds standard deviation time error. The amount and nature of the information transmitted during a time clearance were found to be somewhat of a problem using the voice radio communication channel. Dissimilarities between airborne and ATC-generated speed strategies were found to be a problem when the traffic remained on established routes. It was more efficient for 4D equipped aircraft to fly trajectories with similar, though less fuel efficient, speeds which conform to the ATC strategy. Heavy traffic conditions, where time delays forced off-route path stretching, were found to produce a potential operational benefit of the airborne 4D FMS.

Williams, David H.↗

Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using a Global 5000 Test Aircraft - Part I

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory-prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. A small-jet field trial was conducted at Denver in the fall of 2010 with the objective of measuring trajectory prediction accuracy and quantifying the primary sources of error. This paper uses data collected onboard a Bombardier Global 5000 test aircraft to quantify the size and sources of trajectory prediction error. Error sources were quantified for the 44 runs by incrementally replacing predicted data with data collected onboard the aircraft and measuring the effect on time error. Results for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 60-120 nmi downstream, indicate that the aircraft arrived an average 15 seconds earlier than predicted, with a standard deviation of 10 seconds. Target Mach and CAS deceleration were found to be the two largest error sources. If CAS deceleration error was reduced using a typical, more predictable level flight deceleration then the arrival time prediction error in 2010 would be on par with a 2009 flight trial of Airbus and Boeing revenue flights. Four of the error sources, tracker jumps, CAS deceleration, target Mach, and path distance, lend themselves to significant reductions with modest to no changes to ATC automation andor procedures. Wind error and its impact on arrival time error was significantly reduced in 2010 compared to a 1994 flight test using NASAs Boeing 737 test aircraft.

Trajectory Prediction Error↗

The Design of Model-Based Training Programs

This paper proposes a model-based training program for the skills necessary to operate advance avionics systems that incorporate advanced autopilots and fight management systems. The training model is based on a formalism, the operational procedure model, that represents the mission model, the rules, and the functions of a modem avionics system. This formalism has been defined such that it can be understood and shared by pilots, the avionics software, and design engineers. Each element of the software is defined in terms of its intent (What?), the rationale (Why?), and the resulting behavior (How?). The Advanced Computer Tutoring project at Carnegie Mellon University has developed a type of model-based, computer aided instructional technology called cognitive tutors. They summarize numerous studies showing that training times to a specified level of competence can be achieved in one third the time of conventional class room instruction. We are developing a similar model-based training program for the skills necessary to operation the avionics. The model underlying the instructional program and that simulates the effects of pilots entries and the behavior of the avionics is based on the operational procedure model. Pilots are given a series of vertical flightpath management problems. Entries that result in violations, such as failure to make a crossing restriction or violating the speed limits, result in error messages with instruction. At any time, the flightcrew can request suggestions on the appropriate set of actions. A similar and successful training program for basic skills for the FMS on the Boeing 737-300 was developed and evaluated. The results strongly support the claim that the training methodology can be adapted to the cockpit.

Polson, Peter↗

Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow.

trajectory prediction↗

Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using SkyWest Revenue Flights - Part II

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. This paper quantifies the trajectory prediction accuracy for small jet revenue flight descents based on SkyWest Canadair Regional Jet 200, 700, and 900 aircraft arrivals to Denver in the fall of 2010. Post flight test data analysis and SkyWest pilot interviews uncovered unexpected variation between flight crews due to different interpretations of (1) which fixed flight path angle (FPA) to fly based on the flight trial procedure and (2) how to fly the descent to achieve the target FPA. Pilot reports were used to select a subset of flights where pilots indicated an FPA according to the flight trial procedure to remove the unexpected variation due to (1) to focus on (2). Results for the subset for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 30 to 130 nmi downstream, indicate that aircraft arrived to the meter fix six seconds early with about a twelve second standard deviation. Large FPA errors up to one degree relative to the EDA flight trial procedure were detected after the flight trial as a characteristic of the unexpected variation. It is recommended that quantitative validation be performed during future flight trials so that experimental procedures can be adjusted if unexpected results are detected.

Field Test Results↗

User type certification for advanced flight control systems

Advanced avionics through flight management systems (FMS) coupled with autopilots can now precisely control aircraft from takeoff to landing. Clearly, this has been the most important improvement in aircraft since the jet engine. Regardless of the eventual capabilities of this technology, it is doubtful that society will soon accept pilotless airliners with the same aplomb they accept driverless passenger trains. Flight crews are still needed to deal with inputing clearances, taxiing, in-flight rerouting, unexpected weather decisions, and emergencies; yet it is well known that the contribution of human errors far exceed those of current hardware or software systems. Thus human errors remain, and are even increasing in percentage as the largest contributor to total system error. Currently, the flight crew is regulated by a layered system of certification: by operation, e.g., airline transport pilot versus private pilot; by category, e.g., airplane versus helicopter; by class, e.g., single engine land versus multi-engine land; and by type (for larger aircraft and jet powered aircraft), e.g., Boeing 767 or Airbus A320. Nothing in the certification process now requires an in-depth proficiency with specific types of avionics systems despite their prominent role in aircraft control and guidance.

Gilson, Richard D.↗

Accessing FMS Functionality: The Impact of Design on Learning

In modern commercial and military aircraft, the Flight Management System (FMS) lies at the heart of the functionality of the airplane. The nature of the FMS has also caused great difficulties learning and accessing this functionality. This study examines actual Air Force pilots who were qualified on the newly introduced advanced FMS and shows that the design of the system itself is a primary source of difficulty learning the system. Twenty representative tasks were selected which the pilots could be expected to accomplish on an ' actual flight. These tasks were analyzed using the RAFIV stage model (Sherry, Polson, et al. 2002). This analysis demonstrates that a great burden is placed on remembering complex reformulation of the task to function mapping. 65% of the tasks required retaining one access steps in memory to accomplish the task, 20% required two memorized access steps, and 15% required zero memorized access steps. The probability that a participant would make an access error on the tasks was: two memorized access steps - 74%, one memorized access step - 13%, and zero memorized access steps - 6%. Other factors were analyzed as well, including experience with the system and frequency of use. This completed the picture of a system with many memorized steps causing difficulty with the new system, especially when trying to fine where to access the correct function.

Fennell, Karl↗