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Plasma confinement state classification via FPP relevant microwave diagnostics

We present a parsimonious and robust machine learning approach for identifying plasma confinement states in fusion power plants (FPPs) where reliable identification of the low-confinement and high-confinement regimes is critical for safe and efficient operation. Unlike research-oriented devices, FPPs must operate with a severely constrained set of diagnostics. To address this challenge, we demonstrate that a minimalist model, using only electron cyclotron emission (ECE) signals, can achieve accurate and reliable state classification. ECE provides electron temperature profiles without the engineering or survivability issues of in-vessel probes, making it a primary candidate for FPP-relevant diagnostics. Our framework employs ECE as input, extracts features using radial basis functions, and applies a gradient boosting classifier, achieving a test accuracy of 96% (correct predictions). Robustness analysis and feature importance analyzes confirm the approach’s reliability. These results demonstrate that state-of-the-art performance is attainable from a restricted diagnostic set, paving the way for minimalist yet resilient plasma control architectures for FPPs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Plasma confinement state classification in fusion power plants: Profile reflectometer and ensemble diagnostics

As Fusion Pilot Plants (FPPs) are increasingly viewed as within reach, many engineering challenges remain. Not many diagnostics are expected to be available in a reactor environment. Survivability, maintainability, and limited port space substantially restrict the number of FPP-relevant diagnostics. One remaining challenge is developing tools and devices to extract plasma state information necessary for controlling an FPP from a limited subset of diagnostics. This work is part of an overarching project to address this challenge. The specific diagnostic subset to be used in FPPs is still under debate. We take the approach of developing machine-learning-based tools for different significant plasma state parameters, using already known FPP-viable diagnostics. Previously we developed a plasma confinement mode classifier utilizing the Electron Cyclotron Emission (ECE) diagnostic. Here, we expand on this by developing a Profile Reflectometer (PR) based classifier with 97% test accuracy, and an ensemble model that combines the ECE and PR models into a single model, achieving 99% test accuracy.

Clark, Randall [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA

Overview of advanced plasma-facing materials testing for Fusion Pilot Plants at DIII-D

Characterization and testing of advanced plasma-facing materials (PFMs) for Fusion Pilot Plants (FPP) is being conducted at the DIII-D National Fusion Facility through the ongoing two-year FPP Candidate Materials Thrust. Year one tested 17 novel materials utilizing the Divertor Materials Evaluation System (DiMES), with samples analyzed pre- and post-experiment via SEM, EDS, and confocal microscopy. Repeatable reference discharges were developed to ensure uniformity between experiments, including a new strike-point rastering scenario to provide more uniform heat/particle flux across DiMES during ELMing H-mode discharges. Various sample geometries and temperatures were used to achieve FPP-relevant conditions, including samples angled 10° towards the incident plasma flux and pre-heating up to 500 °C. The first exposure of liquid lithium (Li) capillary porous structures in a tokamak demonstrated uniform emission of Li vapor and suppression of Li droplets in H-mode when preheated to 350 °C. Dispersoid-strengthened W with 1 wt% TaC, TiC, and ZrC exposed to H-mode showed cracking and dispersoid ejection for all varieties except TiC, providing a clear down-selection. Ultra-high temperature ceramic materials TiB 2 and ZrB 2 showed minimal degradation under L-mode exposure. Silicon carbide (SiC) fiber composites showed arcing along edges, while CVD SiC remained pristine. Atmospheric plasma-sprayed W and SiC coatings endured H-mode exposure without macroscopic delamination; SiC exhibited granular ejection, while W showed increased outgassing. Additional W-based alloys were stress tested in H-mode, including Ni-based W heavy alloys, W f SiC f /W composites, W multi-principle element alloys, and functionally-graded W/SiC, to varying degrees of success.

DIII-D

Materials Assessment for FLiBe Fusion Blankets

This evaluation was prepared at the request of DOE-FES and expands on an earlier evaluation prepared by Wilson, Wiffen and Keiser in 2015 (attached as Appendices A and B). Additional useful information for materials in fission molten salt reactor systems that use FLiBe can be found in a prior NRC report [Busby 2019]. The purpose of this report is to review the considerations that will determine the fusion blanket structural materials that will be suitable for use in a FLiBe breeder-coolant fusion power plant (FPP). Identifying a fusion-relevant structural material that is sufficiently compatible with FLiBe is a key issue to be addressed. The constraints and trade-offs made in structural materials selection include the usual power generation requirements such as mechanical properties, fabricability and durability, which assumes reasonable compatibility with the working fluid. For an FPP, additional constraints include neutron economy (breeding ratio), resistance to irradiation damage and low activation (i.e. waste disposal) characteristics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Design And Testing of The Floating Potential Probe For ISS

Flight 4A was an especially critical mission for the International Space Station (ISS). For the first time, the high voltage solar arrays generated significant amounts of power and long predicted environmental interactions (high negative floating potential and concomitant dielectric charging) became serious concerns. Furthermore, the same flight saw the Plasma Contacting Unit (PCU) deployed and put into operation to mitigate and control these effects. The ISS program office has recognized the critical need to verify, by direct measurement, that ISS does not charge to unacceptable levels. A Floating Potential Probe (FPP) was therefore deployed on ISS to measure ISS floating potential relative to the surrounding plasma and to measure relevant plasma parameters. The primary objective of FPP is to verify that ISS floating potential does not exceed the specified level of 40 volts with respect to the ambient. Since it is expected that in normal operations the PCU will maintain ISS within this specification, it is equivalent to say that the objective of FPP is to monitor the functionality of the PCU. In this paper, we report on the design and testing of the ISS FPP. In a separate paper, the operations and results obtained so far by the FPP will be presented.

Hillard, G. Barry

NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project: A Multi-Component Analysis System for Carbon-Cycle Research and Monitoring

The importance of greenhouse gas increases for climate motivates NASA s observing strategy for CO2 from space, including the forthcoming Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) mission. Carbon cycle monitoring, including attribution of atmospheric concentrations to regional emissions and uptake, requires a robust modeling and analysis infrastructure to optimally extract information from the observations. NASA's Carbon-Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project (FPP) is a prototype for such analysis, combining a set of unique tools to facilitate analysis of atmospheric CO2 along with fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere or ocean. NASA's analysis system is unique, in that it combines information and expertise from the land, oceanic, and atmospheric branches of the carbon cycle and includes some estimates of uncertainty. Numerous existing space-based missions provide information of relevance to the carbon cycle. This study describes the components of the FPP framework, assessing the realism of computed fluxes, thus providing the basis for research and monitoring applications. Fluxes are computed using data-constrained terrestrial biosphere models and physical ocean models, driven by atmospheric observations and assimilating ocean-color information. Use of two estimates provides a measure of uncertainty in the fluxes. Along with inventories of other emissions, these data-derived fluxes are used in transport models to assess their consistency with atmospheric CO2 observations. Closure is achieved by using a four-dimensional data assimilation (inverse) approach that adjusts the terrestrial biosphere fluxes to make them consistent with the atmospheric CO2 observations. Results will be shown, illustrating the year-to-year variations in land biospheric and oceanic fluxes computed in the FPP. The signals of these surface-flux variations on atmospheric CO2 will be isolated using forward modeling tools, which also incorporate estimates of transport error. The results will be discussed in the context of interannual variability of observed atmospheric CO2 distributions.

Pawson, S.

Description of FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment

The urgency to deliver fusion power is growing now more than ever, with increasing pressure for both public programs and private companies to meet milestones timelines and overcome significant remaining technical challenges to ensure growth of a nascent fusion industry in time to meet rapidly growing clean energy demands. With incredible advancements in computation and years of investment in fusion model development and validation, integrated modeling is poised to fill a key role in accelerating the timeline to a fusion pilot plant (FPP). Future fusion pilot plants will operate in regimes far beyond current experience, and device design will rely on physics-based prediction and extrapolation. Many concepts will also rely on simulation to assess safety (shielding, tritium management, materials activation and lifetimes), economics and scalability before the decision to build. Importantly, integrated simulation can be used to reveal and solve the complexities of system integration that may otherwise not be apparent in physical components or models developed in isolation. New experimental test facilities that produce relevant conditions to validate and resolve key technical challenges for various subsystems (materials, blankets, fuel cycle, etc.) have been repeatedly called for by the fusion community but are not yet realized. Integrated modeling has an important role in identifying realistic load conditions (thermal, electromagnetic, plasma, neutron and photon loads, etc.) and defining the components and experiments for these test facilities in order to ensure meaningful validation that sufficiently reduces modeling uncertainties and technical risk for the full integrated reactor. The Fusion REactor Design and Assessment (FREDA) SciDAC project is building a component-based integrated modeling framework & data structure to enable self-consistent, multi-fidelity, iterative optimization workflows for the fusion reactor design process. FREDA aims to shorten the time to viable designs by providing a set of flexible workflows to support the various stages of the design process using an integrated model hierarchy, ranging from the simple analytic descriptions to the highest fidelity, theory-based plasma and engineering modeling developed by the fusion and fission communities. These tools are expected to be needed for timely support of FPP design in the milestone program and in the FIRE collaboratives. The plasma simulation backbone of FREDA is IPS-FASTRAN with newly developed coupled Core-Edge Pedestal-SOL (CESOL) workflows, which is being extended to the far-SOL region up to the plasma facing components. FREDA incorporates the FERMI engineering modeling suite and will enable self-consistent evaluation of the thermal shields, limiters, blanket, magnets, and other surrounding structures with predictions of temperatures, erosion, dpa, activation, tritium generation and transport, creep, corrosion, material degradation, etc. Parametric generation of 3D CAD enables rapid iteration of component geometry in response to plasma and loading specifications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Observations of Transient ISS Floating Potential Variations During High Voltage Solar Array Operations

The International Space Station (ISS) continues to be a world-class space research laboratory after over 15 years of operations, and it has proven to be a fantastic resource for observing spacecraft floating potential variations related to high voltage solar array operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Measurements of the ionospheric electron density and temperature along the ISS orbit and variations in the ISS floating potential are obtained from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU). In particular, rapid variations in ISS floating potential during solar array operations on time scales of tens of milliseconds can be recorded due to the 128 Hz sample rate of the Floating Potential Probe (FPP) pro- viding interesting insight into high voltage solar array interaction with the space plasma environment. Comparing the FPMU data with the ISS operations timeline and solar array data provides a means for correlating some of the more complex and interesting transient floating potential variations with mission operations. These complex variations are not reproduced by current models and require further study to understand the underlying physical processes. In this paper we present some of the floating potential transients observed over the past few years along with the relevant space environment parameters and solar array operations data.

Willis, Emily M.