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At least 19 records

Baseline Postirradiation Examination of the FUTURIX-FTA Experiments

Postirradiation Examination (PIE) results from the baseline examination of the FUTURIX-FTA irradiation experiment are presented in this report. The FUTURIX-FTA irradiation was designed to study the fuel performance of candidate transmutation fuels. The FUTURIX-FTA experiment was conducted in the true fast neutron spectrum conditions of the Phénix sodium fast test reactor in France. FUTURIX-FTA contained several compositions that were also irradiated as part of the AFC-1 test in cadmium filtered positions in the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) that approximate the neutron spectrum of a fast reactor. This experiment was a joint collaboration between the Department of Energy (DOE) in the U.S. and the Commissariat á l'Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives (CEA) in France. A joint agreement between DOE and CEA was established in 2004 to conduct an irradiation experiment of metallic and nitride fuels in the Phénix reactor at CEA. Both the FUTURIX-FTA tests and the AFC-1 tests were conducted for the DOE Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) that is part of Fuel Cycle Research & Development (FCRD) program. These programs seek to develop and demonstrate the technologies needed to transmute long-lived transuranic actinide isotopes contained in spent nuclear fuel via fast reactor technology. The long term goal of this work is to reduce the radiotoxicity of future high level waste repositories. Post-irradiation examination of irradiated fuels experiments provides data related to in reactor fuel performance and input into future fuel design choices. The compositions of the FUTURIX-FTA pins were designed to test if minor actinides could be incorporated into the fuel of a fast reactor without significantly changing fuel performance observed for previously well studied fuels. The fuel performance of metallic fuel in fast reactors has been well documented. Likewise the irradiation performance of nitride fuels in fast reactors has also been documented. However the existing database for nitride fuels is much smaller than the database for metal fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Postirradiation Examination of FUTURIX-FTA metallic alloy experiments

Two different metallic nuclear fuel alloys intended for transmutation applications in fast neutron spectrum nuclear reactors have been irradiated, and their performance has been evaluated after irradiation. These alloys contained elevated levels of plutonium and other minor actinides (Am, Np) compared to historically irradiated fast reactor fuel to ascertain the impact of these isotopes on fuel performance. The irradiation of these alloys was performed at the Phénix fast reactor in France to facilitate comparisons between true fast spectrum irradiations and pseudo-fast spectrum irradiations performed at the thermal neutron spectrum Idaho National Laboratory Advanced Test Reactor. The irradiation tests were designated FUTURIX-FTA DOE1 which contained a low-fertile alloy and FUTURIX-FTA DOE2 which contained a non-fertile alloy. The DOE1 fuel was irradiated to a measured burnup of 9.5 % fissions per initial heavy metal atom (FIMA), and the DOE2 fuel was irradiated to a measured burnup of 12.7 % fissions per initial heavy metal atom. This work reports baseline Postirradiation Examination (PIE) results for DOE1 and DOE2. Fuel swelling, fission product distribution, cladding strain, fission gas release, fuel microstructure, fuel cladding chemical interaction and minor actinide transmutation were all evaluated. Cladding strain was negligible and fission gas release was 52% for DOE1 and 69% for DOE2. The exams show the 2 pins behaved very similar to EBR-II metallic fuel experience. Minor actinides seem to not affect the performance of this candidate transmutation fuel. As a result, performance data from these irradiations can be used to inform the feasibility of minor actinide transmutation in future reactor systems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Reliability Prediction using FMEA, FTA, and Related Techniques [Slides]

Summary: We presented a reliability analysis framework. We made point estimates of reliability using reliability block diagrams, fault trees, success trees and estimates with uncertainty using expert elicitation, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis. Expert elicitation of failure modes and probabilities is labor-intensive, but critical. Bayesian analysis updates information from expert elicitation with data from reliability and aging tests (aging/compatibility data are needed to estimate lower-bound reliabilities at end of life). Estimation by more than one method helps insure consistency and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Zero-Emission Bus Evaluation Results: County Connection Battery Electric Buses

The U.S. Department of Transportation's (DOT's) Federal Transit Administration (FTA) supports the research, development, and demonstration of low- and zero-emission technology for transit buses. FTA funds research projects with a goal of facilitating commercialization of advanced technologies for transit buses that will increase efficiency and improve transit operations. DOT's Research, Development, and Technology Office (OST-R) also has an interest in zero-emission bus (ZEB) technology deployment and commercialization. OST-R is coordinating and collaborating with FTA on the evaluation process and results by providing funding to cover additional evaluations. FTA and OST-R are collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct in-service evaluations of advanced technology buses developed under its programs. NREL uses a standard evaluation protocol for evaluating the advanced technologies deployed under the FTA programs. FTA seeks to provide results from new technologies being adopted by transit agencies. The eight evaluations selected to date include battery electric buses (BEBs) and fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) from different manufacturers operating in fleets located in both cold and hot climates. The purpose of this report is to present the results from Central Contra Costa Transit Authority (County Connection) deployment of four BEBs in Concord, California. NREL's evaluation of the BEBs at County Connection was funded by OST-R.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Hazards Analysis and Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) of Four Concept Vehicle Propulsion Systems

The primary objective of this research effort is to identify failure modes and hazards associated with the concept vehicles and to perform functional hazard analyses (FHA) and failure modes and effects criticality analyses (FMECA) for each. Boeing also created a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for each of the concept vehicles, as the FTA contains the connectivity between systems and is an accepted, top-down method to analyze the safety of an air-vehicle. Conceptual design of notional powertrain configuration for each of four (4) NASA RVLT (Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology) Concept Vehicles were developed in as much detail as was necessary to support the reliability and safety analysis for this project. Functional block diagrams from each of the conceptual powertrain configurations were created and used to order the FHA, FMECA, and FTA. Hazards were identified and the severity of each were categorized in the FHA for use in a follow-up FMECA. The FTA took inputs from the FMECA and the functional block diagrams to develop the connectivity and develop a quantitative architecture that could be used to perform sensitivity studies, as related to vehicle safety.Guidelines for reliability targets for both the air vehicle and the operation in the UAM (Urban Air Mobility) mission are discussed. An industry literature search was performed in order to assess gaps in existing government regulations and industry specifications. The industry literature search led to air-vehicle and operational reliability discussions, as related to Distributed Electric/Hybrid-Electric Propulsion (DE/HEP) system operating in the UAM role. A discussion of results and recommendations for future work is also provided.

Hazards Analysis↗

County Connection Battery Electric Bus Demonstration: Preliminary Project Results

The U.S. Federal Transit Administration (FTA) funds a variety of research projects that support the commercialization of zero-emission bus technology. To evaluate projects funded through these programs, FTA has enlisted the help of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to conduct third-party evaluations of the technologies deployed under the FTA programs. NREL works with the selected agencies to evaluate the performance of the zero-emission buses compared to baseline conventional buses in similar service. The evaluation effort will advance the knowledge base of zero-emission technologies in transit bus applications and provide 'lessons learned' to aid other fleets in incrementally introducing next generation zero-emission buses into their operations. This report provides preliminary performance evaluation results from a demonstration of four all-electric trolley-replica buses and two electric vehicle charging stations at County Connection in the San Francisco Bay Area. NREL developed this preliminary results report to quickly disseminate evaluation results to stakeholders. Detailed evaluation results will be published in future reports.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

En route position and time control of aircraft using Kalman filtering of radio aid data

Fixed-time-of-arrival (FTA) guidance and navigation is investigated as a possible technique capable of operation within much more stringent en route separation standards and offering significant advantages in safety, higher traffic densities, and improved scheduling reliability, both en route and in the terminal areas. This study investigated the application of FTA guidance previously used in spacecraft guidance. These FTA guidance techniques have been modified and are employed to compute the velocity corrections necessary to return an aircraft to a specified great-circle reference path in order to exercise en route time and position control throughout the entire flight. The necessary position and velocity estimates to accomplish this task are provided by Kalman filtering of data from Loran-C, VORTAC/TACAN, Doppler radar, radio or barometric altitude,and altitude rate. The guidance and navigation system was evaluated using a digital simulation of the cruise phase of supersonic and subsonic flights between San Francisco and New York City, and between New York City and London.

Mcgee, L. A.↗

Fault tree analysis: NiH2 aerospace cells for LEO mission

The Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is one of several reliability analyses or assessments applied to battery cells to be utilized in typical Electric Power Subsystems for spacecraft in low Earth orbit missions. FTA is generally the process of reviewing and analytically examining a system or equipment in such a way as to emphasize the lower level fault occurrences which directly or indirectly contribute to the major fault or top level event. This qualitative FTA addresses the potential of occurrence for five specific top level events: hydrogen leakage through either discrete leakage paths or through pressure vessel rupture; and four distinct modes of performance degradation - high charge voltage, suppressed discharge voltage, loss of capacity, and high pressure.

Klein, Glenn C.↗

Thermal effects in rapid directional solidification - Linear theory

We study the morphological instability of the planar solid/liquid interface for a unidirectionally-solidified dilute binary mixture. We use a model developed by Boettinger et al. (1985, 1986), Aziz (1982), and Jackson et al. (1980), which allows for nonequilibrium effects on the interface through velocity-dependent segregation and attachment kinetics. Two types of instabilities are found in the linear stability analysis: (1) a cellular instability, and (2) an oscillatory instability driven by disequilibrium effects. Merchant and Davis (1990) characterized these instabilities subject to the frozen-temperature approximation (FTA). The present work relaxes the FTA by including the effects of latent heat and the full temperature distribution. Thermal effects slightly postpone the onset of the cellular instability but dramatically postpone the onset of the oscillatory instability; however, the absolute-stability conditions, at which at high speed the cellular and oscillatory instabilities are suppressed, remain unchanged from the FTA.

Huntley, D. A.↗

Fault Tree in the Trenches, A Success Story

Getting caught up in the explanation of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) minutiae is easy. In fact, most FTA literature tends to address FTA concepts and methodology. Yet there seems to be few articles addressing actual design changes resulting from the successful application of fault tree analysis. This paper demonstrates how fault tree analysis was used to identify and solve a potentially catastrophic mechanical problem at a rocket motor manufacturer. While developing the fault tree given in this example, the analyst was told by several organizations that the piece of equipment in question had been evaluated by several committees and organizations, and that the analyst was wasting his time. The fault tree/cutset analysis resulted in a joint-redesign of the control system by the tool engineering group and the fault tree analyst, as well as bragging rights for the analyst. (That the fault tree found problems where other engineering reviews had failed was not lost on the other engineering groups.) Even more interesting was that this was the analyst's first fault tree which further demonstrates how effective fault tree analysis can be in guiding (i.e., forcing) the analyst to take a methodical approach in evaluating complex systems.

Long, R. Allen↗

Fault Tree Analysis Application for Safety and Reliability

Many commercial software tools exist for fault tree analysis (FTA), an accepted method for mitigating risk in systems. The method embedded in the tools identifies a root as use in system components, but when software is identified as a root cause, it does not build trees into the software component. No commercial software tools have been built specifically for development and analysis of software fault trees. Research indicates that the methods of FTA could be applied to software, but the method is not practical without automated tool support. With appropriate automated tool support, software fault tree analysis (SFTA) may be a practical technique for identifying the underlying cause of software faults that may lead to critical system failures. We strive to demonstrate that existing commercial tools for FTA can be adapted for use with SFTA, and that applied to a safety-critical system, SFTA can be used to identify serious potential problems long before integrator and system testing.

Wallace, Dolores R.↗

New Mass Properties Engineers Aerospace Ballasting Challenge Facilitated by the SAWE Community

The discipline of Mass Properties Engineering tends to find the engineers; not typically vice versa. In this case, two engineers quickly found their new responsibilities deep in many aspects of mass properties engineering and required to meet technical challenges in a fast paced environment. As part of NASA's Constellation Program, a series of flight tests will be conducted to evaluate components of the new spacecraft launch vehicles. One of these tests is the Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) flight test which will test the Launch Abort System (LAS), a system designed to provide escape for astronauts in the event of an emergency. The Flight Test Articles (FTA) used in this flight test are required to match mass properties corresponding to the operational vehicle, which has a continually evolving design. Additionally, since the structure and subsystems for the Orion Crew Module (CM) FTA are simplified versions of the final product, thousands of pounds of ballast are necessary to achieve the desired mass properties. These new mass properties engineers are responsible for many mass properties aspects in support of the flight test, including meeting the ballasting challenge for the CM Boilerplate FTA. SAWE expert and experienced mass properties engineers, both those that are directly on the team and many that supported via a variety of Society venues, significantly contributed to facilitating the success of addressing this particular mass properties ballasting challenge, in addition to many other challenges along the way. This paper discusses the details regarding the technical aspects of this particular mass properties challenge, as well as identifies recommendations for new mass properties engineers that were learned from the SAWE community along the way.

Cutright, Amanda↗

A Transmission Electron Microscopy Study of a Refractory Metal Grain from a Calcium-Aluminum-Rich Inclusion in the Leoville CV3 Chondrite

Introduction: Calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs) are an important component of chondritic meteorites. They can contain materials that are thermodynamically predicted and isotopically age dated to be among the first-formed solids in our solar system [1-5]. Observed in some CAIs are micron to sub-micron sized inclusions rich in Fe, Ni, and high-Z elements such as Pt, Os, Ir and W, in the form of refractory metal nuggets (RMNs), fremdlinges, and ‘nugget like objects’ (NLOs) [1,6]. Refractory siderophile elements such as Os, Ir and Ru are thermodynamically predicted to condense at temperatures well in excess of the major CAI phases such as melilite, perovskite, spinel and hibonite [2,7-9]. These refractory metal inclusions in CAIs can therefore serve as probes into the thermodynamic landscape of the early solar protoplanetary disk. Here we report on a refractory grain identified in a CAI of the Leoville CV3 chondrite. This work is part of an ongoing effort to gain insight into the thermochemistry of the early solar system through systematic analyses of the structure and chemistry of various components in CAIs [10-13]. Sample and Analytical Techniques: A fluffy type A CAI (Fig. 1A) was identified in a section of the Leoville, CV3 chondrite (Center for Meteorite Studies, Arizona State University collection, #821_C_3) using a JOEL-JXA 8530F electron microprobe at Arizona State University. Backscattered electron (BSE) imaging and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) were used to identify refractory metal grains in the CAI using a Thermo Fisher (formerly FEI) Helios NanoLab 660 G3 focused-ion-beam scanning-electron microscope (FIBSEM) located at the Kuiper Materials Imaging and Characterization Facility (KMICF) at the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona. The FIB is equipped with an EDAX EDS system. We selected one of the larger (micron-sized) refractory metal grains, designated as ‘Spud’ (Fig. 1B) for further analysis. ‘Spud’ was extracted and thinned to electron transparency (<100 nm) using the FIB-SEM located in KMICF, following methods described by [14- 15]. The FIB section was analyzed using a 200 keV Hitachi HF5000 scanning transmission electron microscope (S/TEM) located at KMICF. The HF5000 is equipped with cold-field emission gun, 3rd-order spherical aberration corrector for STEM imaging, and an Oxford Instruments X-Max N 100 TLE energydispersive spectroscopy (EDS) system with dual 100 mm2 windowless silicon-drift detectors (Ω = 2.0 sr). Selected-area electron-diffraction (SAED) patterns were acquired to aid in determination of crystallinity and phase. Results: The mineralogy, texture, and morphology of the CAI are consistent with that of a fluffy type A (FTA) CAI [16]. BSE imaging at high magnifications revealed grains with high contrast, indicative of compositions rich in elements of higher atomic number relative to surrounding material. These high-Z grains have sizes that range from ∼250 nm to 4 µm. EDS analyses confirm that the bright grains are metal-rich inclusions. A minor fraction of the grains are composed of only Fe and Ni, but the majority (∼60%) of the identified inclusions also contained various refractory siderophiles including Os, Ru, Zr, Ir and Mo. EDS analysis on the FIB-SEM of Spud shows that it contains Fe, Ni, Mo and Ru. High-angle annular dark-field (HAAFD) imaging and EDS mapping in the TEM (Fig. 2) show that Spud occurs in melilite (Ca1.9Al1.99Si1.06O7). Spud contains a subhedral to anhedral morphology and is compositionally heterogenous (polyphasic, Fig. 2). Local spatial correlation occurs among Fe, Ni, and Pt, and also among Os, Ru, and Mo. SAED patterns show that the Fe-Ni-Pt, Fe-Os-Mo-Ru and Fe-Pt regions are crystalline. Discussion: CAIs can contain various types of inclusions rich in Fe, Ni and refractory siderophiles such as Os, Ru, W and Pt [1]. RMNs are micron-sized, single phase alloy grains and can contain Os, Ir, Ru and Rh [1,7,17]. NLOs are also micron-sized inclusions, but contain two phases, a refractory metal, and an oxide [6]. Fremdlinge are the largest of such inclusions (tens of microns in size) and are complex aggregates of Fe-Ni alloy, silicates, oxides, and sulfides [1,17]. While the size of Spud matches previous descriptions of RMNs and NLOs, Spud is neither a single-phase alloy like RMNs, nor does it contain one metal phase and one oxide like NLOs. Spud does not match the above described categories of refractory metal inclusions. The presence of refractory siderophiles such as Mo, Os, Ru, and Pt suggests a high-temperature origin. Thermodynamic modelling by [7] indicates condensation temperatures of 1917 K, 1693 K, 1613 K and 1415 K for Os, Mo, Ru and Pt respectively. These models also show that following the initial condensation of a refractory metal, alloying of solutes such as Fe, Ni and W, occurs in levels proportional to their partial pressures in the surrounding gas. Such alloying occurs at temperatures above the condensation temperatures of common CAI phases such as melilite (1529 K), perovskite (1441 K), spinel (197 K) and forsterite (1354 K) [2]. The polyphasic nature of Spud could be the result of such high-temperature alloying, possibly shortly after the condensation of Mo and Ru at 1693 K and 1613 K respectively. That Spud occurs as an inclusion is consistent with it having formed prior to and at temperature above that of its host melilite in this FTA CAI, which is qualitatively consistent with such prior thermodynamic modeling. Further, the polyphasic nature of Spud is similar to refractory grains from a FTA CAI in the Northwest Africa (NWA) 8323, CV3 chondrite [11-13]. These data suggest that such refractory metal grains could have been widespread in the inner and early solar protoplanetary disk and represent some of the earliest formed solids to have condensed. Acknowledgments: Research and instrumentation supported by NASA grants #NNX12AL47G, #NNX15AJ22G and #80NSSC19K0509, and NSF grants #1531243 and #0619599. Fig 2. STEM data on ‘Spud’. HAADF Image (Top) False-color EDS Maps (Bottom) References: [1] MacPherson G. J. (2014) T. of Geochem. Vol I: Met. And Cosmochem. Processes, 139-179. [2] Lodders K. (2003) ApJ, 591, 1220-1247. [3] Ebel D. S. (2006) Met. & the Early S. Sys. II., 253- 277. [4] Amelin Y. (2002) Science, 297, 1678-1683. [5] Connelly J.N. et.al. (2012) Science, 338, 651-655. [6] Schwander D. et al. (2015) GCA, 18, 70-87. [7] Palme H. and Wlotzka F. (1976) EPSL, 33, 45-60. [8] Berg T. et al. (2009) ApJ, 702, 172-176. [9] Liffman K. et al. (2021) Icarus, 221, 89-105. [10] Zega T.J. et al. (2021) PSJ, 2, 115. [11] Ramprasad T. et al. (2020) LPSC LI, Abstract #2472. [12] Ramprasad T. et al. (2021) Microscopy & Microanalysis, S1, 2792-2794. [13] Ramprasad T. et al. (2021) 84th MetSoc, Abstract #6123. [14] Zega T.J. et al. (2007) MAPS, 42, 1373-1386. [15] Ramprasad T. et al. (2022) MAPS, in revision. [16] Grossman L. (1975), GCA, 39, 433-454. [17] El Goresy A. et al. (1978) LPSC IX, Abstract#1100

T. Ramprasad↗

Field expedient stool collection methods for gut microbiome analysis in deployed military environments

ABSTRACT Field expedient devices and protocols for the collection, storage, and shipment of stool samples in deployed settings are needed for the advancement of microbiome research in military health. Relevant assessments include the evaluation of microbiome signatures associated with susceptibility to travelers’ diarrhea and recovery of gut function following infection. However, inherent biases in microbial measurements due to preservatives and sampling methods are unclear and should be assessed for an accurate evaluation of the microbiome. We performed shotgun metagenomic sequencing and compared the microbiome composition in paired fecal samples collected using Flinters Technology Associates (FTA) cards and OMNIgene (OG) Gut tubes, prior to and during international travel, from 49 adult participants, 39 of whom remained asymptomatic and 10 experienced travelers’ diarrhea. Higher concentrations of nucleic acid and sequencing libraries were observed in OG samples. A majority of genera (82.9%) were detected with both methods, and detections of genera limited to one collection method were not highly prevalent across samples and were present in extremely low relative abundances (<0.01%). Differences in beta diversity were largely explained by inter-individuality of microbiome composition, followed by the effect of collection method and timepoint-disease states. Differential abundance analysis indicated that Corynebacterium and Blautia were consistently higher in abundance across all groups with FTA and OG collection, respectively. The observed differences in microbiome composition between methods suggest the need for consistent and standardized protocols within a study. Overall, the data presented here could help guide the future design of fecal microbiome study protocols in field and military deployment settings. IMPORTANCE The assessment of field-deployable methods for fecal sample collection and storage is required to reliably capture samples collected in remote and austere locations. This study describes a comparative metagenomics analysis between samples collected by two different commercially available methods in a military-deployed setting. The results presented here are foundational for the future design of fecal microbiome study protocols in an operational context.

field study↗

'Fluffy' Type A Ca-, Al-rich inclusions in the Allende meteorite

Inclusions called 'fluffy' Type A's or FTA's in the Allende meteorite are examined as possible candidates for relict vapor-solid condensate grains, remaining from the original solar nebula. Type A inclusions are characterized by abundant melilite and absence of primary anorthite and titaniferous pyroxene. Fluffy Type A's were probably loosely bound clumps of crystals drifting in the solar nebula, analogous to dustballs or snowflakes. Polished thin sections of all samples were studied optically and with a JEOL JSM-35 scanning electron microscope. It is reasonably clear that neither whole FTA's nor constituent nodules of the coarser grained ones were ever molten. Despite solid-state recrystallization which has affected these inclusions to varying degrees, the coarser grained material remaining in many of them is probably a relic of vapor-solid condensation in the solar nebula.

Macpherson, G. J.↗

Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

Paul S. Ray↗

Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

Lu, Chien-tsug↗