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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Global Positioning System (GPS) Precipitable Water in Forecasting Lightning at Spaceport Canaveral

Using meteorology data, focusing on precipitable water (PW), obtained during the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons in Central Florida, this paper will, one, assess the skill and accuracy measurements of the current Mazany forecasting tool and, two, provide additional forecasting tools that can be used in predicting lightning. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are located in east Central Florida. KSC and CCAFS process and launch manned (NASA Space Shuttle) and unmanned (NASA and Air Force Expendable Launch Vehicles) space vehicles. One of the biggest cost impacts is unplanned launch scrubs due to inclement weather conditions such as thunderstorms. Each launch delay/scrub costs over a quarter million dollars, and the need to land the Shuttle at another landing site and return to KSC costs approximately $ 1M. Given the amount of time lost and costs incurred, the ability to accurately forecast (predict) when lightning will occur can result in significant cost and time savings. All lightning prediction models were developed using binary logistic regression. Lightning is the dependent variable and is binary. The independent variables are the Precipitable Water (PW) value for a given time of the day, the change in PW up to 12 hours, the electric field mill value, and the K-index value. In comparing the Mazany model results for the 1999 period B against actual observations for the 2000-2003 thunderstorm seasons, differences were found in the False Alarm Rate (FAR), Probability of Detection (POD) and Hit Rate (H). On average, the False Alarm Rate (FAR) increased by 58%, the Probability of Detection (POD) decreased by 31% and the Hit Rate decreased by 20%. In comparing the performance of the 6 hour forecast period to the performance of the 1.5 hour forecast period for the Mazany model, the FAR was lower by 15% and the Hit Rate was higher by 7%. However, the POD for the 6 hour forecast period was lower by 16% as compared to the POD of the 1.5 hour forecast period. Neither forecast period performed at the accuracy measures expected. A 2-Hr Forecasting Tool was developed to support a Phase I Lightning Advisory, which requires a 30-minute lead time for predicting lightning.

Kehrer, Kristen↗
DOE OSTI2018

False alarms and the IMS infrasound network: Understanding the factors influencing the creation of false events

The International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network has been designed to acquire the necessary data to detect and locate explosions in the atmosphere with a yield equivalent to 1 kiloton of TNT anywhere on Earth. A major associated challenge is the task of automatically processing data from all IMS infrasound stations to identify possible nuclear tests for subsequent review by analysts. This paper is the first attempt to quantify the false alarm rate (FAR) of the IMS network, and in particular to assess how the FAR is affected by the numbers and distributions of detections at each infrasound station. To ensure that the results are sufficiently general, and not dependent entirely on one detection algorithm, the assessment is based on two detection algorithms that can be thought of as end members in their approach to the trade-off between missed detections and false alarms. The results show that the FAR for events formed at only two arrays is extremely high (ranging from 10’s to 100’s of false events per day across the IMS network, depending on the detector tuning). It is further shown that the FAR for events formed at three or more IMS arrays is driven by ocean-generated waves (microbaroms), despite efforts within both detection algorithms for avoiding these signals, indicating that further research into this issue is merited. Overall, the results highlight the challenge of processing data from a globally sparse network of stations to detect and form events. On the basis of these results, it is shown that further work on understanding signal and noise characteristics is needed before attempting to automatically form events detected at only two arrays on the global network. In particular, more work is required to reduce false alarms caused by the detection of microbarom signals.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Solar Activity from 2006 to 2014 and Short-term Forecasts of Solar Proton Events Using the ESPERTA Model

To evaluate the solar energetic proton (SEP) forecast model of Laurenza et al., here termed ESPERTA, we computed the input parameters (soft X-ray (SXR) fluence and ∼1 MHz radio fluence) for all ≥M2 SXR flares from 2006 to 2014. This database is outside the 1995–2005 interval on which ESPERTA was developed. To assess the difference in the general level of activity between these two intervals, we compared the occurrence frequencies of SXR flares and SEP events for the first six years of cycles 23 (1996 September–2002 September) and 24 (2008 December–2014 December). We found a reduction of SXR flares and SEP events of 40% and 46%, respectively, in the latter period. Moreover, the numbers of ≥M2 flares with high values of SXR and ∼1 MHz fluences (>0.1 J m{sup −2} and >6 × 10{sup 5} sfu × minute, respectively) are both reduced by ∼30%. A somewhat larger percentage decrease of these two parameters (∼40% versus ∼30%) is obtained for the 2006–2014 interval in comparison with 1995–2005. Despite these differences, ESPERTA performance was comparable for the two intervals. For the 2006–2014 interval, ESPERTA had a probability of detection (POD) of 59% (19/32) and a false alarm rate (FAR) of 30% (8/27), versus a POD = 63% (47/75) and an FAR = 42% (34/81) for the original 1995–2005 data set. In addition, for the 2006–2014 interval the median (average) warning time was estimated to be ∼2 hr (∼7 hr), versus ∼6 hr (∼9 hr), for the 1995–2005 data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multimessenger Gamma-Ray and Neutrino Coincidence Alerts Using HAWC and IceCube Subthreshold Data

The High Altitude Water Cerenkov (HAWC) and IceCube observatories, through the Astrophysical Multimessenger Observatory Network (AMON) framework, have developed a multimessenger joint search for extragalactic astrophysical sources. This analysis looks for sources that emit both cosmic neutrinos and gamma rays that are produced in photohadronic or hadronic interactions. The AMON system is running continuously, receiving subthreshold data (i.e., data that are not suited on their own to do astrophysical searches) from HAWC and IceCube, and combining them in real time. Here we present the analysis algorithm, as well as results from archival data collected between 2015 June and 2018 August, with a total live time of 3.0 yr. During this period we found two coincident events that have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <1 coincidence yr -1 , consistent with the background expectations. The real-time implementation of the analysis in the AMON system began on 2019 November 20 and issues alerts to the community through the Gamma-ray Coordinates Network with an FAR threshold of <4 coincidences yr -1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914

A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9×10{sup −6} yr{sup −1}, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2×10{sup −7}. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m{sub 1},m{sub 2})=(36{sub −4}{sup +5},29{sub −4}{sup +4}) M{sub ⊙} at redshift z=0.09{sub −0.04}{sup +0.03} (median and 90% credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between 2--53 Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1} (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13--600 Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1} depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2--600 Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

An adaptive tracking observer for failure-detection systems

The design problem of adaptive observers applied to linear, constant and variable parameters, multi-input, multi-output systems, is considered. It is shown that, in order to keep the observer's (or Kalman filter) false-alarm rate (FAR) under a certain specified value, it is necessary to have an acceptable proper matching between the observer (or KF) model and the system parameters. An adaptive observer algorithm is introduced in order to maintain desired system-observer model matching, despite initial mismatching and/or system parameter variations. Only a properly designed adaptive observer is able to detect abrupt changes in the system (actuator, sensor failures, etc.) with adequate reliability and FAR. Conditions for convergence for the adaptive process were obtained, leading to a simple adaptive law (algorithm) with the possibility of an a priori choice of fixed adaptive gains. Simulation results show good tracking performance with small observer output errors and accurate and fast parameter identification, in both deterministic and stochastic cases.

Sidar, M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

WSR-88D Cell Trends

This report documents the Applied Meteorology Unit's evaluation of the Cell Trends display as a tool for radar operators to use in their evaluation of storm cell strength. The objective of the evaluation is to assess the utility of the WSR-88D graphical Cell Trends display for local radar cell interpretation in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) operational requirements. The analysis procedure was to identify each cell and track the maximum reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, storm top, storm base, hail and severe hail probability, cell-based Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) and core aspect ratio using WATADS Build 9.0 cell trends information. One problem noted in the analysis phase was that the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm had a difficult time tracking the small cells associated with the Florida weather regimes. The analysis indicated numerous occasions when a cell track would end or an existing cell would be give a new ID in the middle of its life cycle. This investigation has found that most cells, which produce hail or microburst events, have discernable Cell Trends signatures. Forecasters should monitor the PUP's Cell Trends display for cells that show rapid (1 scan) changes in both the heights of maximum reflectivity and cell-based VIEL. It is important to note that this a very limited data set (four case days). Fifty-two storm cells were analyzed during those four days. The above mentioned t=ds, increase in the two cell attributes for hail events and decrease in the two cell attributes for wind events were noted in most of the cells. The probability of detection was 88% for both events. The False Alarm Rate (FAR) was a 36% for hail events and a respectable 25% for microburst events. In addition the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is 0.65 for hail events and 0.67 for microburst events. For random forecast the HSS is 0 and that a perfect score is 1.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Determination of Storm Flashing/Non-Flashing Condition From Convective and Environmental Observations

A simple and fundamental problem in cloud electrification is whether or not a cloud can be determined to be producing lightning or not producing lightning, based solely on knowledge of its microphysical (and perhaps environmental) state. A merged database of TRMM radar, microwave and lightning observations and NCEP reanalysis environmental parameters is used to answer this question, for the tropics. The formal skill of traditional, univariate rule-based approaches (e.g., 35 dBZ occurrence at 6 km altitude) is quantified (via the probability of detection (POD), false alarm rate (FAR) and critical skill index (CSI)). Under indiscriminate application to the tropics, peak rule-based CSI for categorization of flashing storms is approximately 50%, with peak POD approximately 67% and minimum FAR approximately 33%, with peak CSI found for radar reflectivity-based parameters at 7-7.5 km altitude (near -15C). Separation of land and ocean domains yields approximately 5-10% gains in CSI over land. Conventional multivariate categorization techniques (discriminant analysis) are then applied, and less conventional (neural network) categorization techniques are also discussed.

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Preliminary Development and Evaluation of Lightning Jump Algorithms for the Real-Time Detection of Severe Weather

Previous studies have demonstrated that rapid increases in total lightning activity (intracloud + cloud-to-ground) are often observed tens of minutes in advance of the occurrence of severe weather at the ground. These rapid increases in lightning activity have been termed "lightning jumps." Herein, we document a positive correlation between lightning jumps and the manifestation of severe weather in thunderstorms occurring across the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C. A total of 107 thunderstorms were examined in this study, with 69 of the 107 thunderstorms falling into the category of non-severe, and 38 into the category of severe. From the dataset of 69 isolated non-severe thunderstorms, an average peak 1 minute flash rate of 10 flashes/min was determined. A variety of severe thunderstorm types were examined for this study including an MCS, MCV, tornadic outer rainbands of tropical remnants, supercells, and pulse severe thunderstorms. Of the 107 thunderstorms, 85 thunderstorms (47 non-severe, 38 severe) from the Tennessee Valley and Washington D.C tested 6 lightning jump algorithm configurations (Gatlin, Gatlin 45, 2(sigma), 3(sigma), Threshold 10, and Threshold 8). Performance metrics for each algorithm were then calculated, yielding encouraging results from the limited sample of 85 thunderstorms. The 2(sigma) lightning jump algorithm had a high probability of detection (POD; 87%), a modest false alarm rate (FAR; 33%), and a solid Heidke Skill Score (HSS; 0.75). A second and more simplistic lightning jump algorithm named the Threshold 8 lightning jump algorithm also shows promise, with a POD of 81% and a FAR of 41%. Average lead times to severe weather occurrence for these two algorithms were 23 minutes and 20 minutes, respectively. The overall goal of this study is to advance the development of an operationally-applicable jump algorithm that can be used with either total lightning observations made from the ground, or in the near future from space using the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool in MIDDS

The goal of this task was to upgrade the severe weather database from the previous phase by adding weather observations from the years 2004 - 2009, re-analyze the data to determine the important parameters, make adjustments to the index weights depending on the analysis results, and update the MIDDS GUI. The added data increased the period of record from 15 to 21 years. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. Four of the stability indices showed increased severe weather predication. The Total Threat Score (TTS) of the previous work was verified for the warm season of 2009 with very good skill. The TTS Probability of Detection (POD) was 88% and the False alarm rate (FAR) of 8%. Based on the results of the analyses, the MIDDS Severe Weather Worksheet GUI was updated to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters and synoptic-scale dynamics.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Recent Advancements in Lightning Jump Algorithm Work

In the past year, the primary objectives were to show the usefulness of total lightning as compared to traditional cloud-to-ground (CG) networks, test the lightning jump algorithm configurations in other regions of the country, increase the number of thunderstorms within our thunderstorm database, and to pinpoint environments that could prove difficult for any lightning jump configuration. A total of 561 thunderstorms have been examined in the past year (409 non-severe, 152 severe) from four regions of the country (North Alabama, Washington D.C., High Plains of CO/KS, and Oklahoma). Results continue to indicate that the 2 lightning jump algorithm configuration holds the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, with a probability of detection (POD) at 81%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 45%, a critical success index (CSI) of 49% and a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.66. The second best performing algorithm configuration was the Threshold 4 algorithm, which had a POD of 72%, FAR of 51%, a CSI of 41% and an HSS of 0.58. Because a more complex algorithm configuration shows the most promise in terms of prospective operational lightning jump algorithms, accurate thunderstorm cell tracking work must be undertaken to track lightning trends on an individual thunderstorm basis over time. While these numbers for the 2 configuration are impressive, the algorithm does have its weaknesses. Specifically, low-topped and tropical cyclone thunderstorm environments are present issues for the 2 lightning jump algorithm, because of the suppressed vertical depth impact on overall flash counts (i.e., a relative dearth in lightning). For example, in a sample of 120 thunderstorms from northern Alabama that contained 72 missed events by the 2 algorithm 36% of the misses were associated with these two environments (17 storms).

Schultz, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Overview of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm: Past, Present and Future Work

Rapid increases in total lightning prior to the onset of severe and hazardous weather have been observed for several decades. These rapid increases are known as lightning jumps and can precede the occurrence of severe weather by tens of minutes. Over the past decade, a significant effort has been made to quantify lightning jump behavior in relation to its utility as a predictor of severe and hazardous weather. Based on a study of 34 thunderstorms that occurred in the Tennessee Valley, early work conducted in our group at Huntsville determined that it was indeed possible to create a reasonable operational lightning jump algorithm (LJA) based on a statistical framework relying on the variance behavior of the lightning trending signal. We the expanded this framework and tested several variance-related LJA configurations on a much larger sample of 87 severe and non severe thunderstorms. This study determined that a configuration named the "2(sigma)" algorithm had the most promise in development of the operational LJA with a probability of detection (POD) of 87%, a false alarm rate (FAR) of 33%, a Heidke Skill Score (HSS) of 0.75. The 2(sigma) algorithm was then tested on an even larger sample of 711 thunderstorms of all types from four regions of the country where total lightning measurement capability existed. The result was very encouraging.Despite the larger number of storms and the inclusion of different regions of the country, the POD remained high (79%), the FAR was low (36%) and HSS was solid (0.71). Average lead time from jump to severe weather occurrence was 20.65 minutes, with a standard deviation of +/- 15 minutes. Also, trends in total lightning were compared to cloud to ground (CG) lightning trends, and it was determined that total lightning trends had a higher POD (79% vs 66%), lower FAR (36% vs 54 %) and a better HSS (0.71 vs 0.55). From the 711-storm case study it was determined that a majority of missed events were due to severe weather producing thunderstorms in low flashing environments. The latest efforts have been geared toward examining these low flashing storms in order to adjust the algorithm for such storms, thus enhancing the capability of the LJA. Future work will test the algorithm in real time using current satellite and radar based cell tracking methods, as well as, comparing total lightning jump occurrence to both satellite based and ground base observations of thunderstorms to create correlations between lightning jumps and the observed structures within thunderstorms. Finally this algorithm will need to be tested using Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data to transition the algorithm from VHF ground based lightning measurements to lower frequency space-based lightning measurements.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Lightning Jump Algorithm Development for the GOES·R Geostationary Lightning Mapper

Current work on the lightning jump algorithm to be used in GOES‐R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)'s data stream is multifaceted due to the intricate interplay between the storm tracking, GLM proxy data, and the performance of the lightning jump itself. This work outlines the progress of the last year, where analysis and performance of the lightning jump algorithm with automated storm tracking and GLM proxy data were assessed using over 700 storms from North Alabama. The cases analyzed coincide with previous semi‐objective work performed using total lightning mapping array (LMA) measurements in Schultz et al. (2011). Analysis shows that key components of the algorithm (flash rate and sigma thresholds) have the greatest influence on the performance of the algorithm when validating using severe storm reports. Automated objective analysis using the GLM proxy data has shown probability of detection (POD) values around 60% with false alarm rates (FAR) around 73% using similar methodology to Schultz et al. (2011). However, when applying verification methods similar to those employed by the National Weather Service, POD values increase slightly (69%) and FAR values decrease (63%). The relationship between storm tracking and lightning jump has also been tested in a real‐time framework at NSSL. This system includes fully automated tracking by radar alone, real‐time LMA and radar observations and the lightning jump. Results indicate that the POD is strong at 65%. However, the FAR is significantly higher than in Schultz et al. (2011) (50‐80% depending on various tracking/lightning jump parameters) when using storm reports for verification. Given known issues with Storm Data, the performance of the real‐time jump algorithm is also being tested with high density radar and surface observations from the NSSL Severe Hazards Analysis & Verification Experiment (SHAVE).

Schultz. E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Fermi Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor Search for Electromagnetic Signals Coincident with Gravitational-Wave Candidates in Advanced LIGOs First Observing Run

We present a search for prompt gamma-ray counterparts to compact binary coalescence gravitational wave (GW)candidates from Advanced LIGO's first observing run (O1). As demonstrated by the multimessenger observations ofGW170817/GRB 170817A, electromagnetic and GW observations provide complementary information about theastrophysical source, and in the case of weaker candidates, may strengthen the case for an astrophysical origin. Here weinvestigate low-significance GWcandidates from the O1 compact binary coalescence searches using the Fermi Gamma-Ray Burst Monitor (GBM), leveraging its all sky and broad energy coverage. Candidates are ranked and compared tobackground to measure the significance. Those with false alarm rates (FARs) of less than 105 Hz (about one per day,yielding a total of 81 candidates) are used as the search sample for gamma-ray follow-up. No GW candidates werefound to be coincident with gamma-ray transients independently identified by blind searches of the GBM data. Inaddition, GW candidate event times were followed up by a separate targeted search of GBM data. Among the resultingGBM events, the two with the lowest FARs were the gamma-ray transient GW150914-GBM presented in Connaughtonet al. and a solar flare in chance coincidence with a GW candidate.

Burns, E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monte Carlo Simulations for Evaluating the Accuracy of GLM Detection Efficiency and False Alarm Rate Retrievals

The performance of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper has been evaluated through comparison with other satellite lightning sensors and ground-based networks. However, because the performance of these reference sensors is both imperfect and imperfectly known, the true performance of GLM can only be estimated through such a process. In particular, GLM performance metrics such as detection efficiency (DE) and false alarm rate (FAR) retrieved through comparison with reference networks are affected by those networks’ own DE, FAR, and spatiotemporal accuracy, as well as the selected flash matching criteria. This study presents follow-on results from an ongoing analysis that uses a Monte Carlo simulation-based inversion technique to quantify the effect on retrieved GLM performance of a reasonable range of reference network DE, FAR, spatiotemporal accuracy, and the associated geographic patterns of each. These results help quantify and bound the actual performance of GLM and the attendant uncertainties when comparing GLM to imperfect reference networks.

Katrina Virts↗
DOE OSTI2015

Performance of an RPM based on Gd-lined plastic scintillator for neutron and gamma detection [ANIMMA--2015-IO-372]

A Radiation Portal Monitor (RPM) was developed by the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN) and Ansaldo Nucleare (ANN) within the FP7 SCINTILLA European project. The system was designed to detect both gamma and neutron radiation with a single technology. It is conceived to monitor vehicle and cargo containers in transits across borders or ports, to find radioactive elements and to avoid illegal trafficking of strategic nuclear materials. The system is based on a {sup 3}He-free neutron detection technology using plastic scintillators coupled to Gadolinium to detect and discriminate gamma from neutron signals. During the 3 years of the SCINTILLA project the construction and test of the first two prototypes drove the definition of the final layout of a full RPM system consisting of two twin pillars as a portal for vehicle and cargo container scan. A custom System Control Software (SCS) manages the electronics of the RPM, the ancillary devices and the data analysis. The combination of the detector layout and of the software functionalities enables both to distinguish neutrons and gammas and to identify the energy range of a detected gamma source. The system was initially characterized via static tests with gamma and neutron sources in the INFN laboratory. These measurements were used to calibrate the detector, evaluate the response of the single pillars as well as of the full system, and optimize the RPM configuration and discrimination algorithm. During this phase, specific tests were performed to study the stability over time of the system, monitoring the measured the neutron and gamma count rates over periods of several weeks. The results allow us to demonstrate the reliability and robustness of the RPM. In a second time the RPM performance was studied via dynamic tests performed during the SCINTILLA test and benchmark campaigns. These measurements took place in the JRC ITRAP+10 facility at Ispra (Varese-Italy). The laboratory is equipped with an experimental set-up for dynamic tests of multiple systems according to international standards. The performed measurements utilized radioactive sources with activities selected according to ANSI and IEC standards to test the detector alarm performances in terms of gamma and neutron response, sensitivity to high gamma fields, sensitivity to moderated neutron sources as well as false alarm rates (FAR). In addition, the RPM was tested in challenging configurations exceeding the requirements set by international standards to determine the real limits of the system. The results obtained during these campaigns demonstrated that the system detection efficiency is not only compliant to international standards for its category, but often exceeds them, demonstrating the validity of the chosen technology and of the implemented layout. The positive performance also showed the effectiveness of the SCS and of its functionalities. To further demonstrate the system capabilities, a test in a real-life environment of the RPM is planned to happen in a near future by installing the detectors in a seaport. In this presentation I will give an overview of the RPM characteristics, of its performances as determined in the test campaign mentioned above and of future plans, to demonstrate how this technology can be an effective choice for the realization of {sup 3}He-free RPM detectors. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2010

Safeguards Envelope

The Safeguards Envelope is a strategy to determine a set of specific operating parameters within which nuclear facilities may operate to maximize safeguards effectiveness without sacrificing safety or plant efficiency. This paper details advanced statistical techniques that will be applied to real plant process monitoring (PM) data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP). In a simulation based on this data, multi-tank and multi-attribute correlations were tested against synthetic diversion scenarios. Kernel regression smoothing was used to fit a curve to the historical data, and multivariable, residual analysis and cumulative sum techniques set parameters for operating conditions. Diversion scenarios were created and tested, showing improved results when compared with a previous study utilizing only one-variable Z-testing. A brief analysis of the impact of the safeguard's optimization on the rest of plant efficiency, criticality concerns, and overall requirements is presented.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Design of a New Collimation System to Prevent Interference between X-ray Machines and Radiation Portal Monitors

Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) developed a new collimation system that allows radiation portal monitors (RPMs) installed near x-ray machines to operate with a negligible false-positive alarm rate. RPMs are usually installed as far as possible from x-ray machines because false alarms are triggered by escaping x-rays; however, constraints at the installation site sometimes make it necessary that RPMs be installed near x-ray machines. Such RPMs are often plagued by high alarm rates resulting from the simultaneous operation of the RPMs and x-ray machines. Limitations on pedestrian flow, x-ray machine orientation, and RPM location often preclude a simple solution for lowering the alarm rate. Adding additional collimation to the x-ray machines to stop the x-rays at the source can reduce the alarm rate without interfering with site operations or adversely affecting the minimum detectable quantity of material (MDQ). A collimation design has been verified by measurements conducted at a RPM installation site and is applicable to all new and existing RPM installations near x-ray machines.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗