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Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗

Measurement of Hydrologic Resource Parameters Through Remote Sensing in the Feather River Headwaters Area

The four problem are as being investigated are: (1) determination of the feasibility of providing the resource manager with operationally useful information through the use of remote sensing techniques; (2) definition of the spectral characteristics of earth resources and the optimum procedures for calibrating tone and color characteristics of multispectral imagery (3) determination of the extent to which humans can extract useful earth resource information through remote sensing imagery; (4) determination of the extent to which automatic classification and data processing can extract useful information from remote sensing data.

Thorley, G. A.↗

A parametric study of the value of hydrological information for irrigation and hydropower management of the Feather River

A case study analysis is presented of the relationships between improvements in the accuracy, frequency, and timeliness of information used in making hydrological forecasts and economic benefits in the areas of hydropower and irrigation. The area chosen for the case study is the Oroville Dam and Reservoir. Emphasis is placed on the use of timely and accurate mapping of the aerial extent of snow in the basin by earth resources survey systems such as LANDSAT. The subject of benefits resulting from improved runoff forecasts is treated in a generalized way without specifying the source of the improvements.

Wetzler, E.↗

Testing the usefulness of ERTS-1 imagery for inventorying wildland resources in northern California

The usefulness of ERTS-1 imagery for inventorying wildland resources in northern California is discussed. Studies are being conducted in two large wildland areas, namely, the Feather River Watershed and the Northern Coastal Zone. The 2.5 million-acre Feather River headwaters area in northern California is the keystone watershed for the California Water Project, one of the most extensive and ambitious water resource developments ever attempted. Consequently, accurate and timely information on the quantity, quality and distribution of timber, forage, water and recreational resources is of immediate importance to each public agency and private group managing this vast, but inaccessible, wildland area. The Northern Coastal Zone (consisting of the counties of Marin, Sonoma, Mendicino, Humbolt and Del Norte) is relatively rural, with an economy based on agriculture, timber, commercial fishing and tourism. However, it is expected that intensive resource use resulting from increasing population will soon become a serious problem unless wise land use planning is undertaken. Thus, this coastal region is particularly well suited to investigations of the ways in which ERTS-1 imagery and other supporting data may be used in conducting land use evaluations.

Lauer, D. T.↗

Introduction

Since May 1970, personnel on several campuses of the University of California have been conducting investigations which seek to determine the usefulness of modern remote sensing techniques for studying various components of California's earth resources complex. Emphasis has been given to California's water resources as exemplified by the Feather River project and other aspects of the California Water Plan. This study is designed to consider in detail the supply, demand, and impact relationships. The specific geographic areas studied are the Feather River drainage in northern California, the Chino-Riverside Basin and Imperial Valley areas in southern California, and selected portions of the west side of San Joaquin Valley in central California. An analysis is also given on how an effective benefit-cost study of remote sensing in relation to California's water resources might best be made.

Colwell, R. N.↗

Detecting Rain–Snow-Transition Elevations in Mountain Basins Using Wireless Sensor Networks

Here, to provide complementary information on the hydrologically important rain–snow-transition elevation in mountain basins, this study provides two estimation methods using ground measurements from basin-scale wireless sensor networks: one based on wet-bulb temperature T wet and the other based on snow-depth measurements of accumulation and ablation. With data from 17 spatially distributed clusters (178 nodes) from two networks, in the American and Feather River basins of California’s Sierra Nevada, we analyzed transition elevation during 76 storm events in 2014–18. A T wet threshold of 0.5°C best matched the transition elevation defined by snow depth. Transition elevations using T wet in upper elevations of the basins generally agreed with atmospheric snow level from radars located at lower elevations, while radar snow level was ~100 m higher due to snow-level lowering on windward mountainsides during orographic lifting. Diurnal patterns of the difference between transition elevation and radar snow level were observed in the American basin, related to diurnal ground-temperature variations. However, these patterns were not found in the Feather basin due to complex terrain and higher uncertainties in transition-elevation estimates. The American basin tends to exhibit 100-m-higher transition elevations than does the Feather basin, consistent with the Feather basin being about 1° latitude farther north. Transition elevation averaged 155 m higher in intense atmospheric river events than in other events; meanwhile, snow-level lowering was enhanced with a 90-m-larger difference between radar snow level and transition elevation. On-the-ground continuous observations from distributed sensor networks can complement radar data and provide important ground truth and spatially resolved information on transition elevations in mountain basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploitation of ERTS-1 imagery utilizing snow enhancement techniques

Photogeological analysis of ERTS-simulation and ERTS-1 imagery of snowcovered terrain within the ERAP Feather River site and within the New England (ERTS) test area provided new fracture detail which does not appear on available geological maps. Comparative analysis of snowfree ERTS-1 images has demonstrated that MSS Bands 5 and 7 supply the greatest amount of geological fracture detail. Interpretation of the first snow-covered ERTS-1 images in correlation with ground snow depth data indicates that a heavy blanket of snow (more than 9 inches) accentuates major structural features while a light "dusting", (less than 1 inch) accentuates more subtle topographic expressions. An effective mail-based method for acquiring timely ground-truth (snowdepth) information was established and provides a ready correlation of fracture detail with snow depth so as to establish the working limits of the technique. The method is both efficient and inexpensive compared with the cost of similarly scaled direct field observations.

Wobber, F. J.↗

Structural and lithologic study of northern coast ranges and Sacramento Valley, California

The author has identified the following significant results. The pattern of linear systems within the project area has been extended into the western foothill belt of the Sierra Nevada. The chief pattern of linear features in the western Sierran foothill belt trends about N. 10 - 15 deg W., but in the vicinity of the Feather River the trend of the features abruptly changes to about N. 50-60 deg W and appears to be contiguous across the Sacramento Valley with a similar system of linear features in the Coast Ranges. The linear features in the Modoc Plateau and Klamath Mt. areas appear unrelated to the systems detected in the Coast Ranges of Sierran foothill belt. Although the change in trend of the Sierran structural features has been previously suggested and the interrelationship of the Klamath Mt. region with the northern Sierra Nevadas has been postulated, the data obtained from the ERTS-1 imagery strengthens these notions and provides for the first time evidence of a direct connection of the structural trends within the alluviated part of the Sacramento Valley. In addition rocks of Pleistocene and Holocene age are offset by some of the linear features seen on ERTS-1 imagery and hence may record the latest episode of geologic deformation in north-central California.

Rich, E. I.↗

Water supply studies

The primary test site for water supply investigations continues to be the Feather River watershed in northeastern California. This test site includes all of the area draining into and including the Oroville Reservoir. The principal effort is to determine the extent to which remote sensing techniques, when properly employed, can provide information useful to those persons concerned with the management and planning of lands and facilities for the production of water, using the Oroville Reservoir and the California Water Project as the focus for the study. In particular, emphasis is being placed on determining the cost effectiveness of information derived through remote sensing as compared with that currently being derived through more conventional means.

Burgy, R. H.↗

Interpretation of snowcover from satellite imagery for use in water supply forecasts in the Sierra Nevada

The California ASVT test area is composed of two study areas; one in Northern California covering the Upper Sacramento and Feather River Basins, and the other covering the Southern Sierra Basins of the San Joaquin, Kings, Kaweah, Tule, and Kern Rivers. Experiences of reducing snowcover from satellite imagery; the accuracy of present water supply forecast schemes; and the potential advantages of introducing snowcover into the forecast procedures are described.

Brown, A. J.↗

Remote sensing-aided systems for snow qualification, evapotranspiration estimation, and their application in hydrologic models

The design of general remote sensing-aided methodologies was studied to provide the estimates of several important inputs to water yield forecast models. These input parameters are snow area extent, snow water content, and evapotranspiration. The study area is Feather River Watershed (780,000 hectares), Northern California. The general approach involved a stepwise sequence of identification of the required information, sample design, measurement/estimation, and evaluation of results. All the relevent and available information types needed in the estimation process are being defined. These include Landsat, meteorological satellite, and aircraft imagery, topographic and geologic data, ground truth data, and climatic data from ground stations. A cost-effective multistage sampling approach was employed in quantification of all the required parameters. The physical and statistical models for both snow quantification and evapotranspiration estimation was developed. These models use the information obtained by aerial and ground data through appropriate statistical sampling design.

Korram, S.↗

Development of EOS-aided procedures for the determination of the water balance of hydrologic budget of a large watershed

Work focused on the acquisition of remotely sensed data for the 1985 to 1986 hydrogolic year; continuation of the field measurement program; continued acquisition and construction of passive microwave remote sensing instruments; a compilation of data necessary for an initial water balance computation; and participation with the EOS Simulataneity Team in reviewing the Feather River watershed as a possible site for a simultaneity experiment.

Congalton, Russell G.↗

River Meander Studies

The meander patterns of the Feather and Colorado rivers were studied in an attempt to correlate pattern changes and flood probability. Attempts were also made to correlate stream meander power spectrum and stream discharge frequency distribution.

Lingenfelter, R. E.↗

Information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for hydrologic-parameter calibration in mixed rain-snow mountain headwaters

Parameters in hydrologic models used in mixed rain-snow regions are often uncertain to calibrate and overfitted on streamflow. To contribute addressing these challenges, we used an algorithm that assesses modeling performances through time (Dynamic Identifiability Analysis) to quantify the information content of spatially distributed ground-based measurements for identifying optimal parameter values in the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model. Including spatially distributed ground-based measurements in Identifiability Analysis allowed us to unambiguously estimate more parameter values than only using streamflow (seven parameters instead of two out of a pool of thirty-three). Peaks in information gain were obtained when using dew-point temperature to identify precipitation phase-partitioning parameters. Multi-attribute identifiability analysis also yielded optimal parameter values that were temporally less variable than those estimated using streamflow alone. Overall, identifying parameter values using ground-based measurements improved the simulation of key drivers of the surface-water budget, such as air temperature and precipitation-phase partitioning. However, parameters simulating surface-to-subsurface mass fluxes like snow accumulation and melt or evapotranspiration were poorly identified by any attribute and so emerged as key sources of predictive uncertainty for this distributed-parameter hydrologic model. In conclusion, this work demonstrates the value of expanded ground-based measurements for identifying parameters in distributed-parameter hydrologic models and so diagnosing their conceptual uncertainty across the water budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Guidance law simulation studies for complex approaches using the Microwave Landing System (MLS)

This report documents results for MLS guidance algorithm development conducted by DAC for NASA under the Advance Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) Technology Studies program (NAS1-18028). The study consisted of evaluating guidance laws for vertical and lateral path control, as well as speed control, by simulating an MLS approach for the Washington National Airport. This work is an extension and generalization of a previous ATOPS contract (NAS1-16202) completed by DAC in 1985. The Washington river approach was simulated by six waypoints and one glideslope change and consisted of an eleven nautical mile approach path. Tracking performance was generated for 10 cases representing several different conditions, which included MLS noise, steady wind, turbulence, and windshear. Results of this simulation phase are suitable for use in future fixed-base simulator evaluations employing actual hardware (autopilot and a performance management system), as well as crew procedures and information requirements for MLS.

Feather, J. B.↗