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NASA NTRS2025

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale of post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of the impacts of fire on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify the impacts of wildfire on runoff generation. We consider the disturbances in the vegetation and soil as the two main factors contributing to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We consider the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration for two case studies. These case studies demonstrate the general applicability of hydrophobicity formulation to serve as a guideline for exploring the range of hydrologic responses post-fire.

Fire Hydrology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale for post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of fire impacts on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify wildfire impacts on runoff generation. We consider the vegetation and soil disturbances as the primary contributors to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty and consider model sensitivity, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We evaluated the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration. Analysis of two events in central California shows that 1) the LAI assimilation has a greater impact on water balance; and 2) the soil scheme captures a range of outcomes, with substantial impacts on surface runoff for some ensemble members, which could affect flood potential.

Timothy M Lahmers↗

DOE OSTI2026

When Do Riverine Systems “Feel the Burn”? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export

Wildfires impact terrestrial landscapes and downstream river corridors through shifts in vegetation and soil properties leading to downstream hydrologic and water quality impacts. The magnitude of these impacts depend on a complex and interconnected set of wildfire, landscape, and aquatic processes. Here, we isolate the impact of post-fire hydrologic changes on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We explore how responses differ across burn severity and area burned in two test basins: a humid forested basin and a semi-arid mixed land use basin. We ran 1830 wildfire simulations testing impacts of area burned, burn severity, and post-fire precipitation on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon. Our work suggests that area burned thresholds differ with burn severity and analyte. Additionally, post-fire transport of dissolved organic carbon was sensitive to both area burned and severity, while nitrate was primarily sensitive to area burned. Despite a muted (−9.5 to 5.7 mm yr −1 change) hydrologic response in the semi-arid basin, the model predicted large (7%–288% increase) shifts in dissolved organic carbon, suggesting that post-fire shifts in flow pathways and soil properties are key in its response. The limited shifts in nitrate responses in the simulations highlight that terrestrial post-fire transformations, rather than hydrologic changes, may control the increases in stream nitrate often observed post-fire. As wildfire regimes are shifting, improving understanding of post-fire nutrient export responses is critical to protect freshwater resources and aquatic ecosystems.

Wampler, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficacy and Costs of Restoring Wetland Breeding Habitat for Imperiled Amphibians in the Southeastern U.S.

Herbaceous isolated wetlands in the North American Southeastern Coastal Plain are important breeding sites for many imperiled amphibians. However, most are degraded from alterations to historic fire disturbance and hydrologic regimes. Without fire, encroaching woody vegetation can transition wetlands to more terrestrial conditions and negatively impact amphibian breeding habitat, yet few studies have experimentally tested the efficacy, cost, or temporal requirement of current methods to restore herbaceous wetland vegetation. Here, we tested the interaction of manipulating wetland canopy and leaf litter/duff to promote herbaceous vegetation within one year (i.e., one breeding season) in degraded herbaceous wetlands in South Carolina. We assessed plant response via herbaceous cover, composition, and species similarity to the wetland seed bank and then related treatment performance to treatment cost. Removing trees combined with burning, disturbing, or removing duff significantly increased herbaceous cover and proportions of wetland plants and graminoids. Removing trees alone did not improve herbaceous cover compared to closed-canopy controls, and manipulating duff alone had limited positive effects on plant cover and composition. The most expensive yet effective treatment was Tree Removal-Duff Removal, while Tree Removal-Duff Disturbance was the most cost-effective. At a minimum, we recommend removing trees and burning to kickstart herbaceous recovery. Promisingly, comparisons of our data with previous seed bank studies from these same wetlands indicate there was limited seed bank attrition during 30 years of woody encroachment. Results from this study should aid practitioners in choosing wetland restoration techniques to better conserve at-risk species in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Hydrological Impacts from Fire-Induced Surface Albedo Darkening in Africa

Burning of biomass as observed by satellites causes a change in albedo that leads to a 1-3 decrease in soil moisture and up to a 1 C increase in surface temperature.

Biomass↗

NASA NTRS2024

Improving the Fire Weather Index System for Peatlands Using Peat-Specific Hydrological Input Data

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological estimates resulting from the assimilation of satellite-based L-band passive microwave observations into a peatland-specific land surface model. In a conservative approach that maintains the integrity of the original FWI structure, the distributions of the hydrological estimates were first matched to those of the corresponding original moisture codes before replacement. The resulting adapted FWI, hereafter called FWIpeat, was evaluated using satellite-based information on fire presence over boreal peatlands from 2010 through 2018. Adapting the FWI with model- and satellite-based hydrological information was found to be beneficial in estimating fire danger, especially when replacing the deeper moisture codes of the FWI. For late-season fires, further adaptations of the fine fuel moisture code show even more improvement due to the fact that late-season fires are more hydrologically driven. The proposed FWIpeat should enable improved monitoring of fire risk in boreal peatlands.

Canadian Fire Weather Index↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating post-fire watershed response to varying burn severity and precipitation regimes using fully-distributed and integrated hydrologic models

Wildfires can cause significant changes in vegetation and soil, which may lead to increased surface runoff and soil erosion, thereby affecting water cycling within ecosystems. This study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated and fully distributed hydrologic model at the watershed scale, to examine post-fire hydrologic responses in selected watersheds with varying burn severities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The model integrates surface overland flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes. We have developed a new fire module in ATS to account for changes in soil hydraulic properties caused by fire in the topsoil layer. Modeling results indicate that, in the year following a high-severity burn, watershed-averaged evapotranspiration decreases by 25%. Additionally, post-fire peak flows increase by 18-29% in watersheds burned with medium to high severity due to changes in soil properties. Conversely, a low-severity burn results in less than a 1% increase in post-fire peak flow. Furthermore, a high-severity fire causes a 38% reduction in the infiltration rate within the affected watershed during the first post-fire wet season. Hypothetical numerical experiments with varying precipitation regimes after a high-severity fire show that post-fire peak flows can increase by 1-29% due to fire-induced changes in soil hydraulic properties. This study highlights the importance of using fully distributed hydrologic models to quantify disturbance-feedback loops, which are essential for understanding the complexities brought about by spatial heterogeneity in post-fire landscapes.

ATS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA SPoRT Land Information System Products for Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been producing a near real-time instance of NASA’s Land Information System (hereafter known as SPoRT-LIS) since 2010, which contains output of soil moisture and temperature at layered depths. The unique configuration of the SPoRT-LIS enables decision-making on operational timescales since it assimilates near real-time observations such as Green Vegetation Fraction from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite and Quantitative Precipitation Estimates from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor System. The SPoRT-LIS was developed initially to provide land surface initialization variables for local numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The earliest documented uses of the SPoRT-LIS as a tool for local drought analysis came from the National Weather Service Office in Huntsville, AL in 2011, in which data were used to provide recommendations for drought category changes to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Through engagement with SPoRT collaborative partners, use of the SPoRT-LIS has gradually expanded in recent years as a component of drought analysis and feedback to the U.S. Drought Monitor. This effort was aided by feedback from end users who expressed needs for specific soil moisture variables, which led to increased applicability for analysis by others in the drought community. This presentation will provide information on the SPoRT-LIS for drought analysis and the collaborative process that has led to changes in product output to meet user needs, with focus in the Southern Appalachian region. However, applications for hydrology and fire weather will also be discussed.

Land surface modeling↗

NASA NTRS2022

Changes in Land Use Enhance the Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems to Fire-Climate Extremes

The Pantanal, the largest contiguous wetland in the world with a high diversity of ecosystems and habitat for several endangered species, was impacted by record-breaking wildfires in 2020. In this study, we integrate satellite and modeling data that enable exploration of natural and human contributing factors to the unprecedented 2020 fires. We demonstrate that the fires were fueled by an exceptional multi-year drought, but dry conditions solely could not explain the spatial patterns of burning. Our analysis reveals how human-caused fires exacerbated drought effects on natural ecosystem within the Pantanal, with large burned fractions primarily over natural (52%), and low cattle density areas (44%) in 2020. The post-fire ecosystem and hydrology changes also had strong ecological effects, with vegetation productivity less than − 1.5 σ over more than 30% of the natural and conservation areas. In contrast to more managed areas, there was a clear decrease in evaporation (by ~ 9%) and an increase in runoff (by ~ 5%) over the natural areas, with long-term impacts on ecosystem recovery and fire risk. This study provides the first tropical evidence outside rainforests of the synergy between climate, land management and fires, and the associated impacts on the ecosystem and hydrology over the largest contiguous wetlands in the world.

Sujay Kumar↗

NASA NTRS1982

Hierarchical modeling for image classification

As part of the California Integrated Remote Sensing System's (CIRSS) San Bernardino County Project, the use of data layers from a geographic information system (GIS) as an integral part of the Landsat image classification process was investigated. Through a hierarchical modeling technique, elevation, aspect, land use, vegetation, and growth management data from the project's data base were used to guide class labeling decisions in a 1976 Landsat MSS land cover classification. A similar model, incorporating 1976-1979 Landsat spectral change data in addition to other data base elements, was used in the classification of a 1979 Landsat image. The resultant Landsat products were integrated as additional layers into the data base for use in growth management, fire hazard, and hydrological modeling.

Likens, W.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Okefenokee Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Assess Hydrologic Changes and Wildfire Risk in the Okefenokee Swamp

The Okefenokee Swamp is a vital ecosystem known for its protection of biodiversity, peatland carbon sinks, and recreational and economic opportunities for local residents. The swamp has experienced several wildfires since the 1990s, and new development along the borders of Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (ONWR) threatens to alter hydrologic activity and increase fire frequency. NASA DEVELOP partnered with staff at the ONWR to determine the feasibility of using satellite imagery to assess wildfire risk and map changes in vegetation cover. Using data from NASA satellites Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) data from the USDA’s Crop Condition and Soil Moisture Analytics Tool (Crop-CASMA), European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), the DEVELOP team assessed the relationship between hydrologic change, vegetation cover, and wildfire risk in the swamp. Results showed that the southern portion of ONWR has been burned the most since 1990 and has greater water stability than other areas of the refuge. The team also found that the largest pockets of mature forests remain in the northernmost regions. Soil moisture anomaly readings may serve as an indicator of fire conditions. The team used these results to create a vegetation map, a swamp water visibility time series map, a historical wildfire correlation analysis, and a methodology tutorial. These products will assist the ONWR in making informed management decisions about the future of the Okefenokee Swamp.

Brianne Kendall↗

NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS Hardcopy Maps

Boreal Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) hardcopy maps are a collection of approximately 1,000 hardcopy maps representing the physical, climatological, and historical attributes of areas covering primarily the Manitoba and Saskatchewan provinces of Canada. These maps were collected by BOREAS Information System (BORIS) and Canada for Remote Sensing (CCRS) staff to provide basic information about site positions, manmade features, topography, geology, hydrology, land cover types, fire history, climate, and soils of the BOREAS study region. These maps are not available for distribution through the BOREAS project but may be used as an on-site resource. Information is provided within this document for individuals who want to order copies of these maps from the original map source. Note that the maps are not contained on the BOREAS CD-ROM set. An inventory listing file is supplied on the CD-ROM to inform users of the maps that are available. This inventory listing is available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). For hardcopies of the individual maps, contact the sources provided.

Hall, Forrest G.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Biodiversity of Saline and Brakish Marshes of the Indian River Lagoon: Historic and Current Patterns

The Indian River Lagoon (IRL) crosses a zone of climatic transition. Historically, marshes dominated saline and brackish environments in the north of the lagoon, while mangroves became important to the south. Distribution of marsh communities was influenced by hydrology, salinity, soil characteristics, and fire, as well as periodic freezes. Marshes of the IRL have been greatly modified since the 1940s. Despite significant modifications, marsh plant species have not been lost from the region, but community and landscape patterns have been greatly modified and ecosystem processes altered.

Schmalzer, Paul A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA

Changes to soil hydraulic properties that reduce infiltration capacity following fire can increase flash flood risks. These risks are exacerbated by rainfall intensification associated with a warming climate. However, the potential effects of climate-change-driven rainfall intensification on postfire floods remain largely unexplored. Using rainfall and runoff observations from a 49.4 km 2 watershed in southern Arizona, USA, and a hydrologic model (KINEROS2), we examined the temporal evolution following a historic fire of three crucial hydrologic parameters: soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sp ), net capillary drive (G p ), and hydraulic roughness (n c ). We explored how the effect of fire on these parameters may influence peak flow under future climate scenarios derived from CMIP6, specifically the medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Results demonstrate an increase in K sp from 11 mm h −1 in the first postfire year to 60 mm h −1 in postfire year 3. G p similarly increased from 19 mm in the first postfire year to 30 mm in the third, while nc was relatively constant. The highest simulated Q p occurred in the first postfire year. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the likelihood of a 100-year flood is projected to be twice as large by the middle of the century relative to its historical magnitude. Simulations further indicate that the maximum expected discharge associated with a postfire flood, as derived from historical data, could be triggered by a 10-year rainstorm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the late century. Simulations also demonstrate that rainfall intensification will lead to greater persistence of elevated flood hazards following fire by the late century under both the SSP2-4.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire time series photos from five sites across the Oak Creek watershed, Washington

Burn severity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Postfire Biogeochemical Processes: Implications to Source Water Quality in Fire-Influenced Watersheds

Forested watersheds are instrumental in providing purified and reliable water to millions of people worldwide. The changing climate has increased the frequency and severity of global fire events. Forested watersheds and their ecosystem functions are greatly disrupted during fire activity. Postfire concerns in forested watersheds include unpredictable and potentially simultaneous alterations in source water quality and hydro-biogeochemical processes. Here, the degree of fire severity can complexly modify water quality through the production of fire-transformed constituents on the burned forest floor (i.e., nutrients, metal(loid)s, dissolved organic matter, and the formation of disinfection byproducts). Correspondingly, fire severity and postfire rainfall patterns can refine hydro-biogeochemical processes that influence the transport of the fire-transformed constituents (i.e., vegetation function, soil structure, hydrological pathways, and microbial communities). Postfire alterations to water quality and hydro-biogeochemical processes introduce further complexity with varying temporal influence, which ranges from months to decades. As postfire water quality and watershed response research progresses, it is essential to homogenize interdisciplinary expertise to bridge knowledge gaps between fields ranging from forest ecology, hydrology, microbiology, and geochemistry. A multidisciplinary approach in wildfire research will facilitate a comprehensive perception of the diverse water quality risks associated with fire activity and mitigate fire concerns on a global level.

Disinfection Byproducts↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire time series of sensor and geochemistry sample data from surface water, groundwater, precipitation, soil, and vegetation across Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Stream sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2 in 2024, affecting the five study sites at varying burn severities. Each site is equipped with YSI EXO2 sondes logging sub-hourly throughout the year, and grab samples are collected approximately every six weeks. YSI sondes are used to measure temporally resolved proxies for groundwater inputs (specific conductivity) and organic matter (fluorescent dissolved organic matter; fDOM) along with basic water quality and depth. Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, and precipitation are analyzed for water stable isotopes and conductivity to understand endmembers for hydrologic mixing Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, soil water, and litter/vegetation/soil leachates are analyzed for organic matter composition measured by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) to understand organic matter dynamics. Game camera photos are provided in a separate data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018598. Future versions of this dataset will include time series data from YSI EXO2 sondes (fDOM, dissolved oxygen, temperature, depth, specific conductance, turbidity, pH), BaroTROLL sensors (air temperature and barometric pressure), rain gauges (precipitation), and data from the soil and vegetation samples. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected data and the additional data types. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos; (2) a folder of surface water sample data; (3) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data; (4) a data checks report; (5) file-level metadata; (6) data dictionary; (7) field metadata; (8) readme; (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocols. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages; (3) stable water isotopes and averages; (4) methods codes; (5) FTICR-MS methods; and (15) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the water CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .d, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, .png, .mov, or .mp4.

Biogeochemistry↗

NASA NTRS2020

Gila Water Resources II: Using Earth Observations to Identify Wildfire Impacts on Hydrologic Functions and Recovery in the Gila National Forest

Wildfires have the potential to cause devastating and long-lasting impacts on ecological systems. In the Gila NF, wildfire events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity over recent years. These disturbances such as the historic Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire (2012) and Silver Fire (2013) have raised concerns over post-fire soil erosion, flooding, debris flows, and vegetation recovery. Understanding the connection between burn events and ecological functions is crucial for developing effective land management practices within the Gila NF that ensure the conservation of the watershed. Our Gila Water Resources II team worked in partnership with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) US Forest Service’s (USFS) Gila National Forest and Region 3. This project was designed to provide insight into the influence of wildfires on increased flooding events and to determine if restoration efforts in the Gila NF are having a beneficial and noticeable impact on recovery. The goals of this project included generating data-supported end products to inform land management decisions, including the prioritization of specific regions and time scales for post-fire restoration efforts. To understand recovery trends and hydrologic impact in the Gila NF between 2000 and 2020, this project used NASA EO and ancillary data, including, but not limited to, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), USGS stream gauge data, and data provided by USDA USFS’s Gila National Forest and Region 3.

Water Resources↗