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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2025

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale of post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of the impacts of fire on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify the impacts of wildfire on runoff generation. We consider the disturbances in the vegetation and soil as the two main factors contributing to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We consider the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration for two case studies. These case studies demonstrate the general applicability of hydrophobicity formulation to serve as a guideline for exploring the range of hydrologic responses post-fire.

Fire Hydrology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale for post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of fire impacts on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify wildfire impacts on runoff generation. We consider the vegetation and soil disturbances as the primary contributors to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty and consider model sensitivity, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We evaluated the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration. Analysis of two events in central California shows that 1) the LAI assimilation has a greater impact on water balance; and 2) the soil scheme captures a range of outcomes, with substantial impacts on surface runoff for some ensemble members, which could affect flood potential.

Timothy M Lahmers↗
NASA NTRS2024

Improving the Fire Weather Index System for Peatlands Using Peat-Specific Hydrological Input Data

The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, even though originally developed and calibrated for an upland Jack pine forest, is used globally to estimate fire danger for any fire environment. However, for some environments, such as peatlands, the applicability of the FWI in its current form, is often questioned. In this study, we replaced the original moisture codes of the FWI with hydrological estimates resulting from the assimilation of satellite-based L-band passive microwave observations into a peatland-specific land surface model. In a conservative approach that maintains the integrity of the original FWI structure, the distributions of the hydrological estimates were first matched to those of the corresponding original moisture codes before replacement. The resulting adapted FWI, hereafter called FWIpeat, was evaluated using satellite-based information on fire presence over boreal peatlands from 2010 through 2018. Adapting the FWI with model- and satellite-based hydrological information was found to be beneficial in estimating fire danger, especially when replacing the deeper moisture codes of the FWI. For late-season fires, further adaptations of the fine fuel moisture code show even more improvement due to the fact that late-season fires are more hydrologically driven. The proposed FWIpeat should enable improved monitoring of fire risk in boreal peatlands.

Canadian Fire Weather Index↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA SPoRT Land Information System Products for Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Program has been producing a near real-time instance of NASA’s Land Information System (hereafter known as SPoRT-LIS) since 2010, which contains output of soil moisture and temperature at layered depths. The unique configuration of the SPoRT-LIS enables decision-making on operational timescales since it assimilates near real-time observations such as Green Vegetation Fraction from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite and Quantitative Precipitation Estimates from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor System. The SPoRT-LIS was developed initially to provide land surface initialization variables for local numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The earliest documented uses of the SPoRT-LIS as a tool for local drought analysis came from the National Weather Service Office in Huntsville, AL in 2011, in which data were used to provide recommendations for drought category changes to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Through engagement with SPoRT collaborative partners, use of the SPoRT-LIS has gradually expanded in recent years as a component of drought analysis and feedback to the U.S. Drought Monitor. This effort was aided by feedback from end users who expressed needs for specific soil moisture variables, which led to increased applicability for analysis by others in the drought community. This presentation will provide information on the SPoRT-LIS for drought analysis and the collaborative process that has led to changes in product output to meet user needs, with focus in the Southern Appalachian region. However, applications for hydrology and fire weather will also be discussed.

Land surface modeling↗
NASA NTRS2022

Changes in Land Use Enhance the Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems to Fire-Climate Extremes

The Pantanal, the largest contiguous wetland in the world with a high diversity of ecosystems and habitat for several endangered species, was impacted by record-breaking wildfires in 2020. In this study, we integrate satellite and modeling data that enable exploration of natural and human contributing factors to the unprecedented 2020 fires. We demonstrate that the fires were fueled by an exceptional multi-year drought, but dry conditions solely could not explain the spatial patterns of burning. Our analysis reveals how human-caused fires exacerbated drought effects on natural ecosystem within the Pantanal, with large burned fractions primarily over natural (52%), and low cattle density areas (44%) in 2020. The post-fire ecosystem and hydrology changes also had strong ecological effects, with vegetation productivity less than − 1.5 σ over more than 30% of the natural and conservation areas. In contrast to more managed areas, there was a clear decrease in evaporation (by ~ 9%) and an increase in runoff (by ~ 5%) over the natural areas, with long-term impacts on ecosystem recovery and fire risk. This study provides the first tropical evidence outside rainforests of the synergy between climate, land management and fires, and the associated impacts on the ecosystem and hydrology over the largest contiguous wetlands in the world.

Sujay Kumar↗
NASA NTRS1982

Hierarchical modeling for image classification

As part of the California Integrated Remote Sensing System's (CIRSS) San Bernardino County Project, the use of data layers from a geographic information system (GIS) as an integral part of the Landsat image classification process was investigated. Through a hierarchical modeling technique, elevation, aspect, land use, vegetation, and growth management data from the project's data base were used to guide class labeling decisions in a 1976 Landsat MSS land cover classification. A similar model, incorporating 1976-1979 Landsat spectral change data in addition to other data base elements, was used in the classification of a 1979 Landsat image. The resultant Landsat products were integrated as additional layers into the data base for use in growth management, fire hazard, and hydrological modeling.

Likens, W.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Okefenokee Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Assess Hydrologic Changes and Wildfire Risk in the Okefenokee Swamp

The Okefenokee Swamp is a vital ecosystem known for its protection of biodiversity, peatland carbon sinks, and recreational and economic opportunities for local residents. The swamp has experienced several wildfires since the 1990s, and new development along the borders of Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (ONWR) threatens to alter hydrologic activity and increase fire frequency. NASA DEVELOP partnered with staff at the ONWR to determine the feasibility of using satellite imagery to assess wildfire risk and map changes in vegetation cover. Using data from NASA satellites Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) data from the USDA’s Crop Condition and Soil Moisture Analytics Tool (Crop-CASMA), European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), the DEVELOP team assessed the relationship between hydrologic change, vegetation cover, and wildfire risk in the swamp. Results showed that the southern portion of ONWR has been burned the most since 1990 and has greater water stability than other areas of the refuge. The team also found that the largest pockets of mature forests remain in the northernmost regions. Soil moisture anomaly readings may serve as an indicator of fire conditions. The team used these results to create a vegetation map, a swamp water visibility time series map, a historical wildfire correlation analysis, and a methodology tutorial. These products will assist the ONWR in making informed management decisions about the future of the Okefenokee Swamp.

Brianne Kendall↗
NASA NTRS2000

BOREAS Hardcopy Maps

Boreal Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) hardcopy maps are a collection of approximately 1,000 hardcopy maps representing the physical, climatological, and historical attributes of areas covering primarily the Manitoba and Saskatchewan provinces of Canada. These maps were collected by BOREAS Information System (BORIS) and Canada for Remote Sensing (CCRS) staff to provide basic information about site positions, manmade features, topography, geology, hydrology, land cover types, fire history, climate, and soils of the BOREAS study region. These maps are not available for distribution through the BOREAS project but may be used as an on-site resource. Information is provided within this document for individuals who want to order copies of these maps from the original map source. Note that the maps are not contained on the BOREAS CD-ROM set. An inventory listing file is supplied on the CD-ROM to inform users of the maps that are available. This inventory listing is available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). For hardcopies of the individual maps, contact the sources provided.

Hall, Forrest G.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Biodiversity of Saline and Brakish Marshes of the Indian River Lagoon: Historic and Current Patterns

The Indian River Lagoon (IRL) crosses a zone of climatic transition. Historically, marshes dominated saline and brackish environments in the north of the lagoon, while mangroves became important to the south. Distribution of marsh communities was influenced by hydrology, salinity, soil characteristics, and fire, as well as periodic freezes. Marshes of the IRL have been greatly modified since the 1940s. Despite significant modifications, marsh plant species have not been lost from the region, but community and landscape patterns have been greatly modified and ecosystem processes altered.

Schmalzer, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Gila Water Resources II: Using Earth Observations to Identify Wildfire Impacts on Hydrologic Functions and Recovery in the Gila National Forest

Wildfires have the potential to cause devastating and long-lasting impacts on ecological systems. In the Gila NF, wildfire events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity over recent years. These disturbances such as the historic Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire (2012) and Silver Fire (2013) have raised concerns over post-fire soil erosion, flooding, debris flows, and vegetation recovery. Understanding the connection between burn events and ecological functions is crucial for developing effective land management practices within the Gila NF that ensure the conservation of the watershed. Our Gila Water Resources II team worked in partnership with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) US Forest Service’s (USFS) Gila National Forest and Region 3. This project was designed to provide insight into the influence of wildfires on increased flooding events and to determine if restoration efforts in the Gila NF are having a beneficial and noticeable impact on recovery. The goals of this project included generating data-supported end products to inform land management decisions, including the prioritization of specific regions and time scales for post-fire restoration efforts. To understand recovery trends and hydrologic impact in the Gila NF between 2000 and 2020, this project used NASA EO and ancillary data, including, but not limited to, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), USGS stream gauge data, and data provided by USDA USFS’s Gila National Forest and Region 3.

Water Resources↗
NASA NTRS2012

Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the ForWarn System for Monitoring of Forest Disturbances in the Conterminous United States

This presentation discusses MODIS vegetation phenology products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) tool for near real time regional forest disturbance detection and surveillance at regional to national scales. The ForWarn EWS is being developed by the USDA Forest Service NASA, ORNL, and USGS to aid federal and state forest health management activities. ForWarn employs multiple historical land surface phenology products that are derived from MODIS MOD13 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The latter is temporally processed into phenology products with the Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) and the Phenological Parameter Estimation Tool (PPET) software produced at NASA Stennis Space Center. TSPT is used to effectively noise reduce, fuse, and void interpolate MODIS NDVI data. PPET employs TSPT-processed NDVI time series data as an input, outputting multiple vegetation phenology products at a 232 meter resolution for 2000 to 2011, including NDVI magnitude and day of year products for seven key points along the growing season (peak of growing season and the minima, 20%, and 80% of the peak NDVI for both the left and right side of growing season), cumulative NDVI integral products for the most active part of the growing season and sequentially across the growing season at 8 day intervals, and maximum value NDVI products composited at 24 day intervals in which each product date has 8 days of overlap between the previous and following product dates. MODIS NDVI phenology products are also used to compute nationwide NRT forest change products refreshed every 8 days. These include percent change in forest NDVI products that compare the current NDVI from USGS eMODIS products to historical MODIS MOD13 NDVI. For each date, three forest change products are produced using three different maximum value NDVI baselines (from the previous year, three previous years, and all previous years). All change products are output with a rainbow color table in which forests with the most severe NDVI decreases are assigned hot colors (yellow to red) and forests with prominent NDVI increases are assigned cold colors (blue tones). All mentioned products have been integrated as data layers into ForWarn s geospatial data viewer known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The latter is used to view and assess the context of the mentioned forest change products with respect to ancillary data layers, such as land cover, elevation, hydrologic features, climatic data, storm data, aerial disturbance surveys, fire data, and land ownership. The FCAV also includes a temporal NDVI profiler for viewing phenological change in multi-year NDVI associated with known or suspected regionally apparent forest disturbances (e.g., from fire and insects). ForWarn forest change products have been used to detect, track, and assess several biotic and abiotic regional forest disturbance events across the country, including ephemeral and longer lasting damage from storms, drought, and insects. Such change products are most effective for viewing severe disturbances affecting multiple MODIS pixels. MODIS vegetation phenology products contribute vital current information on forest conditions to the ForWarn system and this role is expected to grow as these products are refined and derivative products are added.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
NASA NTRS2012

CARVE: The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment

The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is a NASA Earth Ventures (EV-1) investigation designed to quantify correlations between atmospheric and surface state variables for the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems through intensive seasonal aircraft campaigns, ground-based observations, and analysis sustained over a 5-year mission. CARVE bridges critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of Arctic ecosystems, linkages between the Arctic hydrologic and terrestrial carbon cycles, and the feedbacks from fires and thawing permafrost. CARVE's objectives are to: (1) Directly test hypotheses attributing the mobilization of vulnerable Arctic carbon reservoirs to climate warming; (2) Deliver the first direct measurements and detailed maps of CO2 and CH4 sources on regional scales in the Alaskan Arctic; and (3) Demonstrate new remote sensing and modeling capabilities to quantify feedbacks between carbon fluxes and carbon cycle-climate processes in the Arctic (Figure 1). We describe the investigation design and results from 2011 test flights in Alaska.

Arctic Carbon Cycle↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using NASA Earth Observations to Identify Wildfire Impacts on Hydrologic Functions and Recovery in the Gila National Forest

Wildfires can dramatically influence both abiotic and biotic components of a landscape, including soil stability and chemistry; vegetation health, density, and composition; and water flow and quality. In addition to the immediate hazards posed by wildfires, subsequent hazards such as flooding and debris flow can impact the area. In New Mexico’s Gila National Forest, wildfire events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity over recent years, notably including the Whitewater Baldy Complex Fire (2012) and Silver Fire (2013), which burned over 290,000 acres and 138,698 acres, respectively, according to the Burned Area Emergency Response Team Executive Summary reports. Following a significant wildfire, land and resource management decisions are made, including when and where to focus vegetation and stream restoration efforts. This research is the result of a collaboration between the NASA DEVELOP National Program and the US Forest Service, which aimed to utilize NASA Earth observations to help inform those critical land management decisions. The project had two main objectives: 1) assess the efficacy of post-fire vegetation restoration efforts and 2) analyze the impact of burn events on the hydrology at the watershed-scale. To accomplish this first goal, data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) were used to study the vegetation health over time of treated and non-treated burn areas. To accomplish the latter, various aspects of stream behavior were examined in relation to burn events, including the runoff coefficient and “flashiness” of streams based on USGS stream gauge data and Integrated Multi-satelllite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation data. This will allow land managers to better understand the complex ecological relationship between the cascading effects after wildfire and the greater forest ecosystem.

Madeline Allen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Needs of NASA's Near Real-Time Earth Observation Products

"The 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space stated that NASA's Earth Science with planned implementation of applications provides sustained earth observations for societal benefits [1]. The Decadal Survey indicated that data latency is invaluable for time-sensitive applications including disaster risk reduction, wildland fire carbon emissions quantification, real-time measurements of the state of the hydrologic systems and many more. Data latency refers to the time between earth observation and data products available to users. During the past 13 years, NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing Systems (LANCE) continues to provide free access to earth observation products that are made available much quicker than routine processing allows. The latency of most LANCE data products is Near Real-time (NRT) which is defined as less than three hours from satellite observations [2]. LANCE is managed by the Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center [3], and a User Working Group (UWG) is responsible for providing guidance to LANCE. LANCE data are used by direct users and brokers who add value to the data [4]. NASA Earth Applied Sciences Program (ASP) is one of the primary users of LANCE, which collaborates with partner organizations and provides support to scientists to solve problems in applications of earth observations. ASP promotes the use of LANCE NRT data products to demonstrate applications in decision making, facilitates end-user feedback to the science team to improve data products, and provides information on future demands for research. LANCE supports applications that need a rapid response including detecting wildland fires and volcanic eruptions, tracking smoke, ash and dust plumes, monitoring air quality and tracking extreme weather events such as hurricanes, landslides, and floods. To gather feedback regarding the availability, accessibility and actionability of NASA's NRT data products for societal benefit, three surveys and a few discussions with experts involved in the topic within ASP were conducted from the perspective of users. Feedback has been collected from users who are interested in using low latency NASA data within application communities of agriculture, disasters, water resources, health and air quality, ecological conservation, wildland fires and capacity building. Analysis-ready NRT data products in a variety of formats have been mentioned many times in the collected feedback, especially for applied users with little to no experience using research-grade earth observation products. Users prefer to have products that can be easily integrated into their existing workflows and take their analysis to the data. HDF5 is a commonly used data format for research, but typically requires some conversion to a more friendly format for applications and regular use in decision-making. Users prefer the GeoTIFF data format that can be directly ingested into a GIS mapping software and platform for data analysis and visualization. For example, LANCE’s fire, flood, SO2 and Black Marble Nighttime Blue/Yellow Composite data products have been integrated into NASA Disasters Mapping Portal, which is an GIS-based open data portal, for users in the disaster management community. There are 291 LANCE NRT layers available through GIBS and Worldview, where users can download a snapshot in GeoTIFF format. Operational users expect data to be processed as close to the user as possible. The collected feedback indicates that LANCE fire products within 3 hours latency would meet the needs of the wildland fire community. The ideal latency for volcanic application is 10-15 minutes. Users in Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) reported that the first forecast volcanic product should be issued within 75 minutes from the volcano eruption [5]. Overall, for disaster applications, data latency within 3 hours is useful while latency greater than 12 hours is not timely enough for operational use. Capacity building and training are critical for users to be able to access, interpret and use data products and tools for their decision making, especially for applied users with limited experience using earth observation products. LANCE data products have been used in a number of capacity building projects domestically and internationally [6]. As LANCE continues to bring new products into the system, users request training to utilize LANCE new and upcoming data products and capabilities in their applications. Due to the limitation of bandwidth and downstream flow paths, users in some developing countries need tools to select and download data for a specific area of interest instead of bulk downloads. The collected feedback also shows the lack of available SAR satellite low latency data products. The advantages of SAR to monitor conditions and changes on the ground through darkness, clouds, volcanic ash, and other atmospheric conditions, are appealing to low latency users. For example, terabytes of low latency but cloudy optical images are not helpful in rapidly identifying the extent of flood or fire impacts. LANCE could be complemented with low latency measurements via the upcoming NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission [7]. Requests for higher spatial resolution products are expressed. A user from the wildland fire management community reported that products with 30-m spatial resolution could be used to detect small fires. The 30-m Landsat OLI fire data is now part of NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) US/Canada [8]. Within the open and free NASA resources, LANCE disseminates NRT data products in a manner that allows them to be accessible and understandable to both scientific and applied users. In many application areas, latency plays an important or even decisive role where low latency earth observations help people to observe areas of interest, detect and track changes in the environment and make timely decisions. NASA’s Earth Applied Sciences Program promotes the use of LANCE NRT products and builds a bridge between application users and research teams. The collected feedback indicates data latency within 3 hours is useful for most of the applications, and shows the needs of user-friendly, analysis-ready products, and requests training on LANCE’s new and upcoming data products. User feedback has been provided to LANCE UWG for guidance and recommendations, and for translating findings into something actionable.

Tian Yao↗
NASA NTRS1990

Inhomogeneities of stratocumulus liquid water

There is a growing body of observational evidence on inhomogeneous cloud structure, most recently from the extensive measurements of the FIRE field program. Knowledge of cloud structure is important because it strongly influences the cloud radiative properties, one of the major factors in determining the global energy balance. Current atmospheric circulation models use plane-parallel radiation, so that the liquid water in each gridbox is assumed to be uniform, which gives an unrealistically large albedo. In reality cloud liquid water occupies only a subset of each gridbox, greatly reducing the mean albedo. If future climate models are to treat the hydrological cycle in a manner consistent with energy balance, a better treatment of cloud liquid is needed. FIRE concentrated upon two cloud types of special interest: cirrus and marine stratocumulus. Cirrus tend to be high and optically thin, thus reducing the effective radiative temperature without increasing the albedo significantly, leading to an enhanced greenhouse heating. In contrast, marine stratocumulus are low and optically thick, thus producing a large increase in reflected radiation with a small change in emitted radiation, giving a net cooling which could potentially mitigate the expected greenhouse warming. The FIRE measurements in California stratocumulus during June and July of 1987 show variations in cloud liquid water on all scales. Such variations are associated with inhomogeneous entrainment, in which entrained dry air, rather than mixing uniformly with cloudy air, remains intact in blobs of all sizes, which decay only slowly by invasion of cloudy air. Two important stratocumulus observations are described, followed by a simple fractal model which reproduces these properties, and finally, the model radiative properties are discussed.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Gila Water Resources III - Modeling the Impacts of Post-fire Restoration Methods on Vegetation Recovery in the Gila National Forest

In recent years, wildfires in New Mexico’s Gila National Forest have become increasingly common and more severe. Wildfires can have powerful impacts on hydrology and soil stability, including erosion, flooding, and debris-flows that threaten lives and infrastructure downstream. Vegetation restoration treatments like seeding and mulching can mitigate these effects and facilitate ecosystem recovery. Understanding the effectiveness of various restoration methods is vital to planning a cost-effective and successful post-fire recovery strategy. The immediate response to a fire on US Forest Service land is coordinated by a Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team, a group responsible for mitigating immediate post-fire risks to human life, property, and critical natural and cultural resources. This study created a proof-of-concept methodology for a decision-support tool designed to help BAER teams identify the restoration treatments most likely to succeed in a given burned area. Leveraging random forest regression, Google Earth Engine, and Landsat 7 and 8 Earth observations, this study modeled vegetation recovery after the 2013 Silver Fire for seeded areas, seeded/mulched areas, and untreated areas. Treatment type and initial burn severity were the largest drivers of vegetation recovery across the landscape. Seeded/mulched areas showed higher recovery levels than untreated areas three months post-fire, but by four years post-fire, treated and untreated areas displayed similar recovery levels. To produce a robust predictive tool for the Gila National Forest, the model should be trained on many more fires and incorporate post-fire weather conditions into the process. Such a model will help partners ensure efficient resource use and plan effective post-fire restoration strategies.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2012

Radiative Forcing Due to Enhancements in Tropospheric Ozone and Carbonaceous Aerosols Caused by Asian Fires During Spring 2008

Simulations of tropospheric ozone and carbonaceous aerosol distributions, conducted with the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS), are used to study the effects of major outbreaks of fires that occurred in three regions of Asia, namely Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Siberia, during spring 2008. RAQMS is a global scale meteorological and chemical modeling system. Results from these simulations, averaged over April 2008, indicate that tropospheric ozone column increases by more than 10 Dobson units (DU) near the Thailand region, and by lesser amounts in the other regions due to the fires. Widespread increases in the optical depths of organic and black carbon aerosols are also noted. We have used an off-line radiative transfer model to evaluate the direct radiative forcing due to the fire-induced changes in atmospheric composition. For clear sky, the monthly averaged radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is mostly negative with peak values less than -12 W/sq m occurring near the fire regions. The negative forcing represents the increased outgoing shortwave radiation caused by scattering due to carbonaceous aerosols. At high latitudes, the radiative forcing is positive due to the presence of absorbing aerosols over regions of high surface albedo. Regions of positive forcing at TOA are more pronounced under total sky conditions. The monthly averaged radiative forcing at the surface is mostly negative, and peak values of less than -30 W/sq m occur near the fire regions. Persistently large negative forcing at the surface could alter the surface energy budget and potentially weaken the hydrological cycle.

Natarajan, Murali↗