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DOE OSTI2026

When Do Riverine Systems “Feel the Burn”? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export

Wildfires impact terrestrial landscapes and downstream river corridors through shifts in vegetation and soil properties leading to downstream hydrologic and water quality impacts. The magnitude of these impacts depend on a complex and interconnected set of wildfire, landscape, and aquatic processes. Here, we isolate the impact of post-fire hydrologic changes on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We explore how responses differ across burn severity and area burned in two test basins: a humid forested basin and a semi-arid mixed land use basin. We ran 1830 wildfire simulations testing impacts of area burned, burn severity, and post-fire precipitation on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon. Our work suggests that area burned thresholds differ with burn severity and analyte. Additionally, post-fire transport of dissolved organic carbon was sensitive to both area burned and severity, while nitrate was primarily sensitive to area burned. Despite a muted (−9.5 to 5.7 mm yr −1 change) hydrologic response in the semi-arid basin, the model predicted large (7%–288% increase) shifts in dissolved organic carbon, suggesting that post-fire shifts in flow pathways and soil properties are key in its response. The limited shifts in nitrate responses in the simulations highlight that terrestrial post-fire transformations, rather than hydrologic changes, may control the increases in stream nitrate often observed post-fire. As wildfire regimes are shifting, improving understanding of post-fire nutrient export responses is critical to protect freshwater resources and aquatic ecosystems.

Wampler, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Efficacy and Costs of Restoring Wetland Breeding Habitat for Imperiled Amphibians in the Southeastern U.S.

Herbaceous isolated wetlands in the North American Southeastern Coastal Plain are important breeding sites for many imperiled amphibians. However, most are degraded from alterations to historic fire disturbance and hydrologic regimes. Without fire, encroaching woody vegetation can transition wetlands to more terrestrial conditions and negatively impact amphibian breeding habitat, yet few studies have experimentally tested the efficacy, cost, or temporal requirement of current methods to restore herbaceous wetland vegetation. Here, we tested the interaction of manipulating wetland canopy and leaf litter/duff to promote herbaceous vegetation within one year (i.e., one breeding season) in degraded herbaceous wetlands in South Carolina. We assessed plant response via herbaceous cover, composition, and species similarity to the wetland seed bank and then related treatment performance to treatment cost. Removing trees combined with burning, disturbing, or removing duff significantly increased herbaceous cover and proportions of wetland plants and graminoids. Removing trees alone did not improve herbaceous cover compared to closed-canopy controls, and manipulating duff alone had limited positive effects on plant cover and composition. The most expensive yet effective treatment was Tree Removal-Duff Removal, while Tree Removal-Duff Disturbance was the most cost-effective. At a minimum, we recommend removing trees and burning to kickstart herbaceous recovery. Promisingly, comparisons of our data with previous seed bank studies from these same wetlands indicate there was limited seed bank attrition during 30 years of woody encroachment. Results from this study should aid practitioners in choosing wetland restoration techniques to better conserve at-risk species in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating post-fire watershed response to varying burn severity and precipitation regimes using fully-distributed and integrated hydrologic models

Wildfires can cause significant changes in vegetation and soil, which may lead to increased surface runoff and soil erosion, thereby affecting water cycling within ecosystems. This study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated and fully distributed hydrologic model at the watershed scale, to examine post-fire hydrologic responses in selected watersheds with varying burn severities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The model integrates surface overland flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes. We have developed a new fire module in ATS to account for changes in soil hydraulic properties caused by fire in the topsoil layer. Modeling results indicate that, in the year following a high-severity burn, watershed-averaged evapotranspiration decreases by 25%. Additionally, post-fire peak flows increase by 18-29% in watersheds burned with medium to high severity due to changes in soil properties. Conversely, a low-severity burn results in less than a 1% increase in post-fire peak flow. Furthermore, a high-severity fire causes a 38% reduction in the infiltration rate within the affected watershed during the first post-fire wet season. Hypothetical numerical experiments with varying precipitation regimes after a high-severity fire show that post-fire peak flows can increase by 1-29% due to fire-induced changes in soil hydraulic properties. This study highlights the importance of using fully distributed hydrologic models to quantify disturbance-feedback loops, which are essential for understanding the complexities brought about by spatial heterogeneity in post-fire landscapes.

ATS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temporal persistence of postfire flood hazards under present and future climate conditions in southern Arizona, USA

Changes to soil hydraulic properties that reduce infiltration capacity following fire can increase flash flood risks. These risks are exacerbated by rainfall intensification associated with a warming climate. However, the potential effects of climate-change-driven rainfall intensification on postfire floods remain largely unexplored. Using rainfall and runoff observations from a 49.4 km 2 watershed in southern Arizona, USA, and a hydrologic model (KINEROS2), we examined the temporal evolution following a historic fire of three crucial hydrologic parameters: soil saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sp ), net capillary drive (G p ), and hydraulic roughness (n c ). We explored how the effect of fire on these parameters may influence peak flow under future climate scenarios derived from CMIP6, specifically the medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Results demonstrate an increase in K sp from 11 mm h −1 in the first postfire year to 60 mm h −1 in postfire year 3. G p similarly increased from 19 mm in the first postfire year to 30 mm in the third, while nc was relatively constant. The highest simulated Q p occurred in the first postfire year. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the likelihood of a 100-year flood is projected to be twice as large by the middle of the century relative to its historical magnitude. Simulations further indicate that the maximum expected discharge associated with a postfire flood, as derived from historical data, could be triggered by a 10-year rainstorm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by the late century. Simulations also demonstrate that rainfall intensification will lead to greater persistence of elevated flood hazards following fire by the late century under both the SSP2-4.5 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire time series photos from five sites across the Oak Creek watershed, Washington

Burn severity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Postfire Biogeochemical Processes: Implications to Source Water Quality in Fire-Influenced Watersheds

Forested watersheds are instrumental in providing purified and reliable water to millions of people worldwide. The changing climate has increased the frequency and severity of global fire events. Forested watersheds and their ecosystem functions are greatly disrupted during fire activity. Postfire concerns in forested watersheds include unpredictable and potentially simultaneous alterations in source water quality and hydro-biogeochemical processes. Here, the degree of fire severity can complexly modify water quality through the production of fire-transformed constituents on the burned forest floor (i.e., nutrients, metal(loid)s, dissolved organic matter, and the formation of disinfection byproducts). Correspondingly, fire severity and postfire rainfall patterns can refine hydro-biogeochemical processes that influence the transport of the fire-transformed constituents (i.e., vegetation function, soil structure, hydrological pathways, and microbial communities). Postfire alterations to water quality and hydro-biogeochemical processes introduce further complexity with varying temporal influence, which ranges from months to decades. As postfire water quality and watershed response research progresses, it is essential to homogenize interdisciplinary expertise to bridge knowledge gaps between fields ranging from forest ecology, hydrology, microbiology, and geochemistry. A multidisciplinary approach in wildfire research will facilitate a comprehensive perception of the diverse water quality risks associated with fire activity and mitigate fire concerns on a global level.

Disinfection Byproducts↗

DOE OSTI2026

Post-fire time series of sensor and geochemistry sample data from surface water, groundwater, precipitation, soil, and vegetation across Oak Creek watershed, Washington

This dataset supports a broader study examining wildfire impacts on hydrologic connectivity across 5 sites within the Oak Creek watershed and the resulting biogeochemical impacts. Stream sites were selected using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) hydrologic model to identify locations with varying groundwater contributions and hydrologic responses across different burn severity scenarios. The Retreat Fire burned from July 23 to August 2 in 2024, affecting the five study sites at varying burn severities. Each site is equipped with YSI EXO2 sondes logging sub-hourly throughout the year, and grab samples are collected approximately every six weeks. YSI sondes are used to measure temporally resolved proxies for groundwater inputs (specific conductivity) and organic matter (fluorescent dissolved organic matter; fDOM) along with basic water quality and depth. Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, and precipitation are analyzed for water stable isotopes and conductivity to understand endmembers for hydrologic mixing Grab samples of surface water, groundwater, soil water, and litter/vegetation/soil leachates are analyzed for organic matter composition measured by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS) to understand organic matter dynamics. Game camera photos are provided in a separate data package available at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/3018598. Future versions of this dataset will include time series data from YSI EXO2 sondes (fDOM, dissolved oxygen, temperature, depth, specific conductance, turbidity, pH), BaroTROLL sensors (air temperature and barometric pressure), rain gauges (precipitation), and data from the soil and vegetation samples. Because this study is ongoing, this data package will be updated regularly to include newly collected data and the additional data types. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) a folder of field photos; (2) a folder of surface water sample data; (3) a folder of raw Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) data; (4) a data checks report; (5) file-level metadata; (6) data dictionary; (7) field metadata; (8) readme; (9) international generic sample number (IGSN) mapping file; and (10) field protocols. The sample data subfolder contains (1) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data and averages; (2) total dissolved nitrogen data and averages; (3) stable water isotopes and averages; (4) methods codes; (5) FTICR-MS methods; and (15) a subfolder of 9.4 Tesla (9.4T) FTICR-MS data. This folder contains the processed data and three subfolders, one containing the .xml files, one containing the water CoreMS output files, and the other containing instructions and scripts for processing the files in CoreMS (https://github.com/EMSL-Computing/CoreMS). All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .xml, .d, .html, .Rmd, .py, .cal, .json, .jpg, .jpeg, .png, .mov, or .mp4.

Biogeochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Detecting ecological signatures of long-term human activity across an elevational gradient in the Šumava Mountains, Central Europe

Central European mountains, including the Šumava Mountains located along the Czechia/Germany border, have a long and rich anthropogenic history. Yet, documenting prehistoric human impact in Central European mountain environments remains a challenge because of the need to disentangle climate and human-caused responses in terrestrial systems. Here, we present the first reconstructed water table depths (WTDs) from two sites, Pěkná and Blatenská slať, located in the Šumava Mountains. We compare these local WTD records with new and published pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs), plant macrofossils, geochemistry and archeological records to investigate how changes in local hydrology and human activities impacted forest succession and fire activity throughout the Holocene across an elevational gradient. Using a generalized additive model, our results suggest that changes in forest succession and fire activity have been primarily caused by climate throughout the Holocene. However, humans have been utilizing mountain environments and their resources continuously since ∼4600 cal yr BP, thus playing a secondary role in modifying forest succession to increase resources beneficial to both humans and grazers. Over the last 1000 years, we provide evidence of directly observed human-caused modifications to the landscape. These results contribute to a growing body of literature illustrating human activities and landscape modifications in Central European mountains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains

Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience and water security of forests in the western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled the hydrological effects of multi-decadal landscape-scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process-based hydrological model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from a distributed forest ecosystem model (LANDIS-II), we simulate the water resource impacts of forest management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration of the pre-colonial disturbance return interval in the central Sierra Nevada mountains. In a fully restored disturbance regime that includes fire, thinning, and insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total and 8%–14% in dry years. At sub-watershed scales (10–100 km2), thinning dense forests can increase streamflow by >20% in dry years. In a thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% of streamflow gains are attributable to decreased overstory rain and snow interception loss. Thinner forests can increase headwater peak flows, but reservoir-scale peak flows are almost exclusively influenced by climate. Uncertainty in future precipitation causes high uncertainty in future water yield, but the additional water yield attributable to forest disturbance is about five times less sensitive to annual precipitation uncertainty. This partial decoupling of the streamflow disturbance response from annual precipitation makes disturbance especially valuable for water supply during dry years. Our study can increase confidence in the water resource benefits of restoring historic forest disturbance frequencies in the central Sierra Nevada mountains, and our modeling framework is widely applicable to other forested mountain landscapes.

Boardman, Eli N. [University of Nevada, Reno, NV (↗

DOE OSTI2024

A late glacial paleoenvironmental and climate record from the Sierra de Juarez, Baja California

Ciénegas are desert wetlands that are strongly correlated with the stability of the hydrologic cycle in arid landscapes. However, these environments are particularly vulnerable to climate change, drought, water diversion, and fire suppression which all have contributed to the degradation of ciénegas along the U.S.-Mexican borderlands. Therefore, identifying the timing of precipitation patterns in this region is of particular interest because of its relationship to many ecological responses of the landscape such as groundwater recharge and fire. Here, we present the first-ever fire paleoenvironmental record from Ciénega Chimeneas, a ciénega complex in the Sierra de Juárez of Baja California. We explore how changes in the amount and seasonality of moisture affected ciénega complexes and fire activity from across the southwestern North American region over the past 45,000 years. Further, our record suggests that during the late glacial period, 41,000–21,000 cal yr BP, the increase of Larrea and Quercus indicate an increase in summer precipitation. Subsequently, when summer precipitation increased, pollen preservation and pollen accumulation rates (PAR) also increased. Increased vegetation allowed for increased fire activity during the late glacial period. Regionally, most of the comparison sites also indicated wet conditions during the full glacial period. However, around 21,000 cal yr BP, effective moisture decreased resulting in a dramatic change in the vegetation assemblage. Specifically, the summer wet taxa disappeared, while pollen preservation and PAR decreased, suggesting a dry period until ~14,000 cal yr BP. Little fire activity is recorded after 21,000 cal yr BP, likely due to the absence of fuels. At ~14,000 cal yr BP, Larrea and Quercus reappear suggesting increased summer precipitation. However, the appearance of Cyperaceae and increases in grasses suggest increased winter precipitation. We suggest that the combination of summer wet and winterwet taxa ~14,000 cal yr BP represents an increase in ENSO conditions, while the summer moisture controls remained relatively constant.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Levoglucosan data from five coastal streams impacted by the 2020 CZU Lightning Complex Fires, California, United States

This dataset includes levoglucosan data for five coastal California (United States) streams impacted by the 2020 CZU Lightning Complex Fires which burned from August 16th through September 22nd. Levoglucosan is a highly soluble and biolabile fraction of pyrogenic carbon. The five watersheds (San Lorenzo River, Pescadero Creek, Majors Creek, Laguna Creek, and Scott Creek) were impacted by the fires with watersheds experiencing a range of burn severity and extents. Grab samples were collected from each stream between October 2020 and May 2021, targeting both baseflow and event flow hydrologic conditions. Additional biogeochemistry data (i.e., organic and black carbon concentrations) can be found in a separate data package (https://doi.org/10.4211/hs.421c0226bb38460c8393d67fe0c4f802). This data package consists of one main data folder that contains (1) readme; (2) file-level metadata; (3) data dictionary; (4) field metadata with international generic sample numbers (IGSN); (5) methods codes; and (6) levoglucosan data. All files are .csv or .pdf.

2020 CZU Lightning Complex Fires↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model Data Archive Associated with Manuscript "Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon"

This data package supports the publication “Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon” by Li et al. (2026). The package contains processed model inputs, configuration files, restart files, simulation outputs, scripts, and visualization products used to evaluate post-fire dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in the Naches River Watershed, Washington, USA, following the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire. The modeling workflow couples ELM-BGC, the biogeochemistry-enabled Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model; ATS, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator for integrated surface-subsurface hydrology; and PFLOTRAN, a reactive transport model for multicomponent aqueous geochemistry. Together, these models simulate how wildfire-induced changes in vegetation, litter, coarse woody debris, and soil organic matter influence DOC production, transport, and reaction from burned hillslopes to stream networks. The archive includes preprocessed meteorological, geospatial, hydrologic, and biogeochemical forcing data; ELM-BGC-derived DOC source terms; ATS mesh files; PFLOTRAN reactive-transport inputs; model configuration files; spin-up and transient restart files; watershed-scale diagnostic outputs; stream concentration time series; and figures or visualization files used to inspect and reproduce key results. File types include Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) files for gridded forcing and model-coupling data, model input and configuration files for ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN, restart and simulation-output files generated by the modeling workflow, tabular or time-series diagnostic outputs, scripts for post-processing and figure generation, and image or visualization products associated with the manuscript. Use of the package depends on the intended task. Re-running the simulations requires the relevant modeling software, including ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN as ATS's geochemical engine. Inspecting outputs and reproducing figures requires Python with scientific plotting libraries such as Matplotlib, and three-dimensional model outputs may be viewed with ParaView. Geographic information system files or maps may be inspected with ArcGIS Pro or comparable GIS software. The data package is intended to enable traceability, reuse, and partial reproduction of the coupled land-to-watershed hydro-biogeochemical modeling workflow used to test how wildfire disturbance affects terrestrial carbon pools and downstream DOC dynamics.

ATS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The influence of burn severity on dissolved organic carbon concentrations across a stream network differs based on seasonal wetness conditions

Large, high-severity wildfires in many regions across the globe have increased concerns about their impacts on carbon cycling in watersheds. Altered sources of carbon and changes in catchment hydrology after wildfire can lead to shifts in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in streams, which can have negative impacts on aquatic ecosystem health and downstream drinking-water treatment. Despite its importance, post-fire DOC responses remain relatively unconstrained in the literature, and we lack critical knowledge of how burn severity, landscape elements, and climate interact to affect DOC concentrations. To improve our understanding of the impact of burn severity on DOC concentrations, we measured DOC at 129 sites across a stream network extending upstream, within, and downstream of a large, high-severity wildfire in Oregon, USA. We collected samples across the study sub-basin during four distinct seasonal wetness conditions. We used our high-spatial-resolution data to develop spatial stream network (SSN) models to predict DOC across the stream network and to improve our understanding of the controls on DOC concentrations. Spatially, we found no obvious wildfire signal – instead, we observed a pattern of increasing DOC concentrations from the high-elevation headwaters to the sub-basin outlet, while the mainstem maintained consistently low DOC concentrations. This suggests that effects from large wildfires may be “averaged” out at higher stream orders and larger spatial scales. When we grouped DOC concentrations by burn severity group, we observed a significant decrease in the variability of DOC concentrations in the moderate and high burn severity sub-catchments. However, our SSN models were able to predict decreases in DOC concentrations with increases in burn severity across the stream network. Decreases in DOC concentrations were also highly variable across seasonal wetness conditions, with the greatest (–1.40 to –1.64 mg L –1 ) decrease occurring in the high-severity group during the wetting season. Additionally, our models indicated that in all seasons, baseflow index was more influential in predicting DOC concentrations than burn severity was, indicating that groundwater discharge can obscure the impacts of wildfire in a stream network. Overall, our results suggested that landscape characteristics can regulate the DOC response to wildfire. Moreover, our results also indicated that the seasonal timing of sampling can influence the observed response of DOC concentrations to wildfire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Organic Matter Concentration and Composition in November 2021 and April 2022 from 12 Streams Impacted by the 2020 Holiday Farm Fire (v2)

This dataset represents results from a field study aiming to understand storm induced transport of pyrogenic materials to streams impacted by varying degrees of burn severity. Time series samples were collected at 5 sites within the McKenzie River Watershed (Oregon, USA) whose catchment were each completely engulfed by the 2020 Holiday Farm Fire. An additional 7 sites were sampled once during the storm. The samples were collected during storm events in November 2020, January 2021, November 2021, and April 2022. Samples were characterized for benezenepolycarboxylic acids (BPCA), ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry, dissolved organic carbon and optics (absorbance and fluorescence). Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR) and dissolved organic carbon data from the November 2020 (referred to as “EWEB_2020”) sampling can be found in a separate data package (doi: 10.15485/1869708). NOTE: The 2020 samples were run on FTICR-MS in two unique instances. The first run can be found in the previous data package (EWEB_2020). The second run is included in this data package. These samples were run for a second time so that the data were more directly interoperable with the other samples in this data package. We have not done any investigation into the differences/similarities between these datasets and the previously ran/published data in the other data package. This data package was originally published in November 2024. It was updated in April 2025 (v2; new and modified files). See the change history section below for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. This dataset contains (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) data package readme; (4) metadata; (5) methods information; (6) dissolved organic carbon (DOC, measured as non-purgeable organic carbon, NPOC) data; (7) excitation emission matrix (EEM) methods; and (8) a sub-folder with processed EEM data (9) benzene polycarboxylic acid (BPCA) concentration data; (10) Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) methods; and (11) folder of high-resolution characterization of organic matter via 12 Tesla FTICR-MS generated through the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL; https://www.pnnl.gov/environmental-molecular-sciences-laboratory). The EEMs sub-folder contains two additional folders; the Absorbance and Fluorescence folders which contain the processed EEMs absorbance and fluorescence data respectively. This package contains the following file types: csv, xml, pdf.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” published in Water Resources Research (Wampler et al. 2025; preprint: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174438106.63564767/v1). This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a processed based model to explore the impacts of area burned and burn severity on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in two test basins: a semi-arid, mixed land use basin and a humid, primarily forested basin. We developed 1800 wildfire scenarios that we ran in each basin: 20 different burn extents (5 to 100% by 5%), 3 different burn severities (low, moderate, and high), and 30 different post-fire precipitation scenarios. We also ran an additional 30 scenarios associated with no wildfire for the 30 post-fire precipitation scenarios. For each scenario we were interested in the change in runoff ratio (streamflow) and average concentration and annual loads (nitrate and DOC) across the wildfire scenarios. This data package contains the data and scripts required to build SWAT models for the two test basins, create and run the wildfire scenarios, and generate the data summaries and figures used in the associated manuscript. This data package was originally published in March 2025. It was updated in January 2026 (v2; new and modified files) to include the final files after the manuscript went through reviews. See the change history section below for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗