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At least 19 records

Geological study of an outburst flood event in the upper Yangtze River and risk of similar extreme events

Here, outburst flood sediments are studied on the upper course of the Yangtze River (known as the Jinsha River) where is a key region for the development of hydroelectric power. As the history and magnitude of outburst flooding in this stretch of the Jinsha River during historic times has remained largely undocumented, we have endeavored as part of this study to conduct field investigations into, and provide numerical dating (using OSL and 14 C dating techniques) of outburst flood evidence found in the First Bend area of the Yangtze River. Carbonized nutshells and charcoal from the ancient settlement yielded 14 C ages that precisely pinpointed an outburst flood event ~1200–1300 cal yr BP, during China's Tang Dynasty (618–907 CE). However, OSL ages using the minimum age model for all outburst flood samples ranged from 9.1 to 1.8 ka, which was ~0.5–7.8 ka older than the 14 C-dated outburst flood. This discrepancy suggests a potential overestimation of quartz age when dating outburst flood sediments from the Holocene period. Furthermore, using 2D hydraulic modeling, we estimated the magnitude of the aforementioned outburst flood, revealing a reconstructed peak flow discharge of 51,000–55,300 m 3 /s. This discharge was three times greater than the 10,000-year flood for the hydroelectric power station nearest to the study area. Our study underscores the significant role of combining archaeological and geological evidence in enhancing paleoflood hydrology research. Through a multidisciplinary approach, our findings emphasize the importance of paleoflood hydrology studies in comprehending both the latent and catastrophic flood risks in alpine mountain areas amid the context of global warming.

14C dating↗

DisasterAWARE – A Global Alerting Platform for Flood Events

The rising number of flooding events combined with increased urbanization is contributing to significant economic losses due to damages to structures and infrastructures. From a risk reduction and resilience perspective, it is not only essential to forecast flood risk and potential impacts, but also to disseminate the information to stakeholders on the ground for rapid implementation of mitigation and response measures. This paper provides (i) an introduction to DisasterAWARE®, a global alerting system, that is used to disseminate flood risk information to stakeholders across the globe, and (ii) a discussion of the models implemented using earth observation data (Synthetic Aperture Radar and optical imagery) for near real-time assessment of flood severity and potential flood impacts to infrastructures. While the models are still in their nascent stage, a case study implementation of the models for the 2020 flooding event in Africa is presented to showcase the model integration with DisasterAWARE®.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Mapping of Flood Events in the Mississippi River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

The Mississippi River Basin is the fourth largest drainage basin in the world, and is susceptible to multi-level flood events caused by heavy precipitation, snow melt, and changes in water table levels. Conducting flood analysis during periods of disaster is a challenging endeavor for NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey's Hazards Data Distribution Systems (USGS HDDS) due to heavily-involved research and lack of manpower. During this project, an automated script was generated that performs high-level flood analysis to relieve the workload for end-users. The script incorporated Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) tiles and utilized computer-learning techniques to generate accurate water extent maps. The script referenced the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-water mask to isolate areas of flood induced waters. These areas were overlaid onto the National Land Cover Database's (NLCD) land cover data, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScan data, and Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data (HIFLD) to determine the classification of areas impacted and the population density affected by flooding. The automated algorithm was initially tested on the September 2016 flood event that occurred in Upper Mississippi River Basin, and was then further tested on multiple flood events within the Mississippi River Basin. This script allows end users to create their own flood probability and impact maps for disaster mitigation and recovery efforts.

Bartkovich, Mercedes↗

Simulation of Hurricane Harvey flood event through coupled hydrologic-hydraulic models: Challenges and next steps

Using the 2017 Hurricane Harvey flood event as a test case, this study set up a series of sensitivity analyses to highlight three challenges associated with large-scale flood inundation modeling, including (a) model parameterization, (b) errors in digital elevation models, and (c) effects of reservoir retention. Driven by radar-based hourly rainfall data, a series of hydrologic-hydraulic models including the VIC hydrologic model, RAPID routing model, and Flood2D-GPU hydrodynamic model are set up over Harris County, Texas, to simulate flood inundation and hazards. The results demonstrate the importance of hydrologic parameters in improving flood modeling. For a large flood event such as Hurricane Harvey, the effect of the initial water depths is insignificant. The Manning's n values may increase the peak water depth by ~1%, the flood extents by 65km 2 , and the high danger zone by ~6%. On the contrary, the bathymetry correction factors may reduce the flood extent by ~1.4% and the high-danger zone by ~4%. Reducing the reservoir storage capacity to 1% may increase the flood extent by ~4% and the high-danger zone by ~17%. This study may provide supporting information to guide and prioritize the development of future high-performance computing hydrodynamic large-scale flood simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for: Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events

This dataset contains data and code associated with the paper Patel et al. "Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events".The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic system characterized by strong physical, chemical, and biological gradients. In particular, shifting soil redox conditions and consumption of terminal electron acceptors, due in part to dynamic hydrologic conditions, is a strong driver of carbon availability and transformations across TAIs. However, while redox dynamics are well described, our ability to quantitatively forecast rates of oxic to anoxic shifts in soils with different characteristics and inundation regimes is limited. We integrated field measurements, laboratory incubations, and model simulations to improve mechanistic understanding of oxygen consumption dynamics in coastal soils. Continuous in situ monitoring unexpectedly revealed that flooding caused temporary spikes in subsurface dissolved oxygen followed by rapid consumption in the wetlands. To further investigate these mechanisms in a controlled setting, we performed laboratory incubations using surface and subsurface soils from a TAI gradient (defined here as upland forest to transitional forest to wetland) in Western Lake Erie to measure oxygen consumption rates in TAI soils during flood events. In our experiments, wetland soils reached anoxia the fastest, in ∼ 9 h on average, whereas upland soils turned anoxic in ∼ 18 h. Subsurface upland soils did not turn anoxic even after two weeks of saturation in the lab, and their oxygen consumption patterns suggested carbon and/or nutrient limitation. These results are consistent with in-situ groundwater redox and oxygen measurements in the field, where wetland soils exhibited the highest rates of oxygen consumption along the TAI. Model simulations of oxygen consumption suggested that oxygen consumption had stronger abiotic controls in wetland soils but stronger biotic controls in upland soils, providing a useful framework for future incubation experiments. Microbial activity is a strong driver of oxygen consumption in TAI soils, although it is constrained by the availability of dissolved carbon in subsurface soils.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/COMPASS-DOE/cmps-time_to_anoxia (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10815374).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unraveling the 2021 Central Tennessee flood event using a hierarchical multi-model inundation modeling framework

Flood prediction systems need hierarchical atmospheric, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to predict rainfall, runoff, streamflow, and floodplain inundation. The accuracy of such systems depends on the error propagation through the modeling chain, sensitivity to input data, and choice of models. In this study, we used multiple precipitation forcings (hindcast and forecast) to drive hydrologic and hydrodynamic models to analyze the impacts of various drivers on the estimates of flood inundation depth and extent. We implement this framework to unravel the August 2021 extreme flooding event that occurred in Central Tennessee, USA. We used two radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (STAGE4 and MRMS) as well as quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) to drive a series of models in the hierarchical framework, including the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, the Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) river routing model, and the AutoRoute and TRITON inundation models. An evaluation with observed high-water marks demonstrates that the framework can reasonably simulate flood inundation. Despite the complex error propagation mechanism of the modeling chain, we show that inundation estimates are most sensitive to rainfall estimates. Most notably, QPF significantly underestimates flood magnitudes and inundations leading to unanticipated severe flooding for all stakeholders involved in the event. Finally, we discuss the implications of the hydrodynamic modeling framework for real-time flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Massachusetts Water Resources: Assessing Flood Events Resulting from North American Beaver Reintroduction with NASA Earth Observations to Inform Biodiversity and Infrastructure Management

North American beavers (Castor canadensis) are returning to Massachusetts after overhunting decimated their populations in the 1700s. Current regulations have allowed this species to recolonize, resulting in increasingly prevalent human-beaver conflicts. These ecosystem engineers can quickly change their environment through the creation of dams, leading to floods that can adversely affect human infrastructures, such as basements, roads, or septic systems. Conversely, beaver dams can positively influence their environment, modifying the physical and chemical properties of streams and providing crucial habitats to a variety of wildlife. The 2020 Spring Boston NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with the Massachusetts Audubon Society to support their efforts in monitoring beaver impacts and managing human-beaver conflicts. The project-utilized data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager to map the spectral signature created from beaver-induced flooding. The team created a tool called Beaver-Flood Event Detector (B-FED) in Google Earth Engine using imagery from 1985 to 2019. Ancillary datasets were incorporated into B-FED that allow the tool to highlight flood events in wetland areas and in situ observations of beaver presence. Beaver observations in or near flooded areas indicated likelihood that the flood was beaver induced. Time series and animations were also produced to display key regions of landscape change across Massachusetts. B-FED will allow the partner to identify and assess potential ecosystem changes and infrastructural impacts from beavers across Massachusetts and inform future management practices.

Water Resources↗

Massachusetts Water Resources: Assessing Flood Events Resulting from North American Beaver Reintroduction with NASA Earth Observations to Inform Biodiversity and Infrastructure Management

North American beavers (Castor canadensis) are returning to Massachusetts after overhunting decimated their populations in the 1700s. Current regulations have allowed this species to recolonize, resulting in increasingly prevalent human-beaver conflicts. These ecosystem engineers can quickly change their environment through the creation of dams, leading to floods that can adversely affect human infrastructures, such as basements, roads, or septic systems. Conversely, beaver dams can positively influence their environment, modifying the physical and chemical properties of streams and providing crucial habitats to a variety of wildlife. The 2020 Spring Boston NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with the Massachusetts Audubon Society to support their efforts in monitoring beaver impacts and managing human-beaver conflicts. The project-utilized data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager to map the spectral signature created from beaver-induced flooding. The team created a tool called Beaver-Flood Event Detector (B-FED) in Google Earth Engine using imagery from 1985 to 2019. Ancillary datasets were incorporated into B-FED that allow the tool to highlight flood events in wetland areas and in situ observations of beaver presence. Beaver observations in or near flooded areas indicated likelihood that the flood was beaver induced. Time series and animations were also produced to display key regions of landscape change across Massachusetts. B-FED will allow the partner to identify and assess potential ecosystem changes and infrastructural impacts from beavers across Massachusetts and inform future management practices

Water Resources↗

Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model

Abstract The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state‐wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time‐series shape, than forecast lead time, 2‐to‐4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future

The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.

atmospheric river↗

HYDRAFloods Near Real-Time Mapping of Flood Events Using Multiple Satellite Sensors

Information about inundated areas is critical for distributing aid and resources in flood emergency response operations. Conventional methods of monitoring floods, like gauge based observations and reports from local authorities, provide very detailed and accurate information about flood depth and location. However, the geographic coverage of these point-based observations is limited and delays are common. Satellite-based images can help address these challenges, providing near real-time flood extent information over large areas of coverage. The Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis of Floods (HYDRAFloods) tool, currently being developed by SERVIR-Mekong in collaboration with the Myanmar Department of Disaster Management, is one such example. Generating flood maps, even from satellite imagery, is challenging, given the many disparate sources of information. HYDRAFloods leverages the most recently available remotely sensed data acquired by multiple satellite platforms to automate the creation of daily flood maps. Through combining multiple satellite sources, including optical, microwave, and synthetic aperture radar datasets, near real-time flood maps with reduced cloud impact and increased satellite observations can be generated for use by disaster managers.

Nauman, Claire↗

Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin

Abstract. Rain-on-snow (RoS) events in regions of ephemeral snowpack – such as the northeastern United States – can be key drivers of cool-season flooding. We describe an automated algorithm for detecting basin-scale RoS events in gridded climate data by generating an area-averaged time series and then searching for periods of concurrent precipitation, surface runoff, and snowmelt exceeding predefined thresholds. When evaluated using historical data over the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), the technique credibly finds RoS events in published literature and flags events that are followed by anomalously high streamflow as measured by gauge data along the river. When comparing four different datasets representing the same 21-year period, we find large differences in RoS event magnitude and frequency, primarily driven by differences in estimated surface runoff and snowmelt. Using dataset-specific thresholds improves agreement between datasets but does not account for all discrepancies. We show that factors such as meteorological forcing and coupling frequency, as well as choice of land surface model, play roles in how data products capture these compound extremes and suggest care is to be taken when climate datasets are used by stakeholders for operational decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Socioeconomic Impact Evaluation for Near Real-time Flood Detection in the Lower Mekong River Basin

Flood events pose a severe threat to communities in the Lower Mekong River Basin. The combination of population growth, urbanization, and economic development exacerbate the impacts of these events. Flood damage assessments, critical for understanding the effects of flooding on the local population and informing decision-makers about future risks, are frequently used to quantify the economic losses due to storms. Remote sensing systems provide a valuable tool for monitoring flood conditions and assessing their severity more rapidly than traditional post-event evaluations. The frequency and severity of extreme flood events are projected to increase, further highlighting the need for improved flood monitoring and impact analysis. In this study we integrate a socioeconomic damage assessment model with a near real-time flood remote sensing and decision support tool (NASA's Project Mekong). Direct damages to populations, infrastructure, and land cover are assessed using the 2011 Southeast Asian flood as a case study. Improved land use/land cover and flood depth assessments result in rapid loss estimates throughout the Mekong River Basin. Results suggest that rapid initial estimates of flood impacts can provide valuable information to governments, international agencies, and disaster responders in the wake of extreme flood events.

Mekong Basin↗

Planning green infrastructure placement based on projected precipitation data

Continued urbanization has led to tremendous changes on the landscape. These changes have exacerbated the effects of extreme climatic events such as flooding because of constrained water infiltration and increased surface flow. Typical runoff control measures involve sophisticated gray infrastructure that guide excess surface flow into storage and disposal sites. In a dynamic climate system, these measures are not sustainable since they cannot be easily modified to accommodate large volumes of runoff. Green Infrastructure (GI) is an adaptable technique that can be used to minimize runoff, in addition to offering an array of additional benefits (urban heat regulation, aesthetics, improved air quality etc.). Strategic placement of GI is key to achieving maximum utility. While physical site characteristics play a major role in determining suitable GI placement sites, knowledge of future precipitation patterns is crucial to ensure successful flood mitigation. Here, suitable GI sites within the city of Knoxville, Tennessee, were determined based on potential impact of an extreme flood event as indicated by site characteristics. Then, the relative potential likelihood of a flood event was determined based on projected precipitation data and knowledge of existing flood zones. By combining potential impact with likelihood information, low, medium, and high priority GI implementation sites were established. Results indicate that high priority sites are in the central parts of the city with priority decreasing outward. The GI prioritization scheme presented here, offers valuable guidance to city planners and policy makers who wish to exploit the GI approach for flood mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗