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At least 19 records

A framework to quantify mass flow and assess food loss and waste in the US food supply chain

Abstract Reducing food loss and waste can improve the efficiency of food supply chains and provide food security. Here we estimate mass flow as well as food loss and waste along the US food supply chain for 10 commodity groups and nine management pathways to provide a baseline for designing efficient strategies to reduce, recycle, and recover food loss and waste. We estimate a total food loss and waste of 335.4 million metric tonnes from the U.S. food supply chain in 2016. Water evaporation (19%), recycling (55%), and landfill, incineration, or wastewater treatment (23%) accounted for most of the loss and waste. The consumption stage accounted for 57% of the food loss and waste disposed of through landfill, incineration, or wastewater treatment. Manufacturing was the largest contributor to food loss and waste (61%) but had a high recycling rate. High demand, perishable products accounted for 67% of food waste. We suggest that funding for infrastructure and incentives for earlier food donation can promote efficiency and sustainability of the supply chain, promote FLW collection and recycling along the U.S. FSC, and improve consumer education in order to move towards a circular economy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimal Financing Decision in a Contract Food Supply Chain with Capital Constraint

To solve the financing problem of the food producers, we consider a two‐echelon contract food supply chain composed of a family farm with capital constraints and a food processing enterprise. With no capital constraints as the benchmark model, we analyze optimal decisions of the family farm and the food processing enterprise in the case of bank financing with bank participation only and bank financing with “government, bank, and insurance” coparticipation. Then, we discuss how the risk of yield uncertainty influences the optimal decisions and profits of the family farm and the food processing enterprise under different financing situation. Meanwhile, the reason why the government subsidizes agriculture is explored, and the policy of minimum purchase price of the food is initiated when the market price is too low. Finally, the numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented. The results show that the bank financing with “government, bank, and insurance” coparticipation improves the welfare of supply chain members more obviously than the bank financing with bank participation only; when the rice price is too low, the policy of minimum purchase price of food is initiated, which increases the revenue and the growing enthusiasm of the family farm; the profits of the family farm and the food processing enterprise will decrease as the risk of yield uncertainty increases in the case of bank financing, and the risk of yield uncertainty will be reduced for the family farm when bank financing with “government, bank, and insurance” coparticipation.

Luo, Ying (ORCID:0000000158101443)↗

Estimating energy consumption and GHG emissions in the U.S. food supply chain for net-zero

This work provides a database of the U.S. food system’s energy consumption and GHG emissions at the national and state levels by food supply chain (FSC) stage, fuel type, and food commodity. We estimate that the U.S. FSC consumed a total 4660 TBTU (4900 PJ) of site energy, 7130 TBTU (7500 PJ) of primary energy, and generated 970 MMT of GHG emissions in 2016. Among all the stages, on-farm production is the largest energy consumer (31% primary energy) and GHG emissions contributor (70%), largely due to raising animals. Optimizing distribution can reduce the stage’s energy consumption and GHG emissions and increase products’ shelf-life. Reducing food loss and waste is another good option, as it decreases the amount of food necessary to grow, thus impacting the overall FSC. The database can help stakeholders identify stage- and region-specific strategies and measures to curtail the environmental footprint of the U.S. food system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A systems engineering framework for the optimization of food supply chains under circular economy considerations

The current linear “take-make-waste-extractive” model leads to the depletion of natural resources and environmental degradation. Circular Economy (CE) aims to address these impacts by building supply chains that are restorative, regenerative, and environmentally benign. This can be achieved through the re-utilization of products and materials, the extensive usage of renewable energy sources, and ultimately by closing any open material loops. Such a transition towards environmental, economic and social advancements requires analytical tools for quantitative evaluation of the alternative pathways. Here, in this work, we present a novel CE system engineering framework and decision-making tool for the modeling and optimization of food supply chains. First, the alternative pathways for the production of the desired product and the valorization of wastes and by-products are identified. Then, a Resource-Task-Network representation that captures all these pathways is utilized, based on which a mixed-integer linear programming model is developed. This approach allows the holistic modeling and optimization of the entire food supply chain, taking into account any of its special characteristics, potential constraints as well as different objectives. Considering that typically CE introduces multiple, often conflicting objectives, we deploy here a multi-objective optimization strategy for trade-off analysis. A representative case study for the supply chain of coffee is discussed, illustrating the steps and the applicability of the framework. Single and multi-objective optimization formulations under five different coffee-product demand scenarios are presented. The production of instant coffee as the only final product is shown to be the least energy and environmental efficient scenario. On the contrary, the production solely of whole beans sets a hypothetical upper bound on the optimal energy and environmental utilization. In both problems presented, the amount of energy generated is significant due to the utilization of waste generated for the production of excess energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

The food supply chain has experienced major disruptions from both demand and supply sides during the COVID-19 pandemic. While some consequences such as food waste are directly caused by the disruption due to supply chain inefficiency, others are indirectly caused by a change in consumer’s preferences. As a result, evaluating food supply chain resilience is a difficult task. With an attempt to understand impacts of demand on the food supply chain, we developed an agent-based model based on the case of Idaho’s potato supply chain. Results showed that not only the magnitude but also the timing of the demand shock will have different impacts on various stakeholders of the supply chain. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, the model helps explain why food waste and shortages may occur with dramatic shifts in consumer demand. Second, this paper provides a new angle on evaluating the various mitigation strategies and policy responses to disruptions beyond COVID-19.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Transforming Agricultural Productivity with AI-Driven Forecasting: Innovations in Food Security and Supply Chain Optimization

Global food security is under significant threat from climate change, population growth, and resource scarcity. This review examines how advanced AI-driven forecasting models, including machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and time-series forecasting models like SARIMA/ARIMA, are transforming regional agricultural practices and food supply chains. Through the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and blockchain technologies, these models facilitate the real-time monitoring of crop growth, resource allocation, and market dynamics, enhancing decision making and sustainability. The study adopts a mixed-methods approach, including systematic literature analysis and regional case studies. Highlights include AI-driven yield forecasting in European hydroponic systems and resource optimization in southeast Asian aquaponics, showcasing localized efficiency gains. Furthermore, AI applications in food processing, such as plasma, ozone and Pulsed Electric Field (PEF) treatments, are shown to improve food preservation and reduce spoilage. Key challenges—such as data quality, model scalability, and prediction accuracy—are discussed, particularly in the context of data-poor environments, limiting broader model applicability. The paper concludes by outlining future directions, emphasizing context-specific AI implementations, the need for public–private collaboration, and policy interventions to enhance scalability and adoption in food security contexts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗

From inert gas to fertilizer, fuel and fine chemicals: N 2 reduction and fixation

The 100th anniversary of a leading nitrogen fixation technology developer like CASALE SA is a reason to reflect over the 20th century successful solution of the problem of world food supply, and to look out for solutions for sustainable developments with respect to ammonia production. Here, we review the role of nitrogen as essential chemical constituent in photosynthesis and biology, and component of ammonia as it is used as fertilizer for primary production by photosynthesis for farming and food supply and its future role as energy carrier. While novel synthesis methods and very advanced synchrotron based x-ray analytical techniques are being developed, we feel it is important to refer to the historical and economical context of nitrogen. The breaking of the N≡N triple bond remains a fundamental chemical and energetic problem in this context. We review the electrochemical ammonia synthesis as an energetically and environmentally benign method. Two relatively novel X-ray spectroscopy methods, which are relevant for the molecular understanding of the catalysts and biocatalysts, i.e. soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy and nuclear resonant vibration spectroscopy are presented. We illustrate the perceived reality in fertilizer usage on the field, and fertilizer production in the factory complex with photos and thus provide a contrast to the academic view of the molecular process of ammonia function and production.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The rapid change in mental health among college students after introduction of on-campus quarantine during the 2022 Shanghai COVID-19 lockdown

Objectives Among the various impacts of disasters in terms of emotions, quarantine has been proven to result in significant increases in mental health problems. Studies of psychological resilience during outbreaks of epidemics tend to focus on long-term social quarantine. In contrast, insufficient studies have been conducted examining how rapidly negative mental health outcomes occur and how these outcomes change over time. We evaluated the time course of psychological resilience (over three different phases of quarantine) among students at Shanghai Jiao Tong University to investigate the influence of unexpected changes on college students. Methods An online survey was conducted from 5 to 7 April 2022. A structured online questionnaire was administered using a retrospective cohort trial design. Before 9 March (Period 1), individuals engaged in their usual activities without restrictions. From 9 to 23 March (Period 2), the majority of students were asked to remain in their dormitories on campus. From 24 March to early April (Period 3), restrictions were relaxed, and students were gradually allowed to participate in essential activities on campus. We quantified dynamic changes in the severity of students’ depressive symptoms over the course of these three periods. The survey consisted of five sets of self-reported questions: demographic information, lifestyle/activity restrictions, a brief mental health history, COVID-19-related background, and the Beck Depression Inventory, second edition. Results A total of 274 college students aged 18–42 years (mean = 22.34; SE = 0.24) participated in the study (58.39% undergraduate students, 41.61% graduate students; 40.51% male, 59.49% female). The proportion of students with depressive symptoms was 9.1% in Period 1, 36.1% in Period 2, and 34.67% in Period 3. Depressive symptoms increased notably with the introduction of the quarantine in Periods 2 and 3. Lower satisfaction with the food supplied and a longer duration of physical exercise per day were found to be positively associated with changes in depression severity in Periods 2 and 3. Quarantine-related psychological distress was more evident in students who were in a romantic relationship than in students who were single. Conclusion Depressive symptoms in university students rapidly increased after 2 weeks of quarantine and no perceptible reversal was observed over time. Concerning students in a relationship, ways to take physical exercise and to relax should be provided and the food supplied should be improved when young people are quarantined.

Ma, Dongni↗

The future of fungi: threats and opportunities

The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A framework and calculator for evaluating the impacts of shelf life extension and other food loss and waste reduction technologies

Optimization of the food supply chain (FSC) depends on reducing food waste, especially at the consumer stage, where a substantial portion of food is not eaten, but instead disposed of via landfill, incineration, or in-sink disposals. One key strategy is to increase the time that consumers have before food goes bad or expires. This study developed a framework to assess the efficacy of shelf-life extension (SLE) technologies for mitigating food loss and waste (FLW), such as packaging improvements. The impact flows through the entire FSC, reducing FLW, energy use, and other inputs at each stage. The framework and resulting calculator can be used to evaluate the impact of FLW reduction at any stage for any food commodity. As shown by two SLE cases, the calculator is valuable for policy-makers, government entities, and professionals, specifically those in marketing, business development, and capital projects teams, to comprehensively evaluate the impacts of FLW reduction technologies and practices. The framework and calculator are sensitive to the shape of the consumption curve, the fraction of inedible waste, and the current shelf life. The calculator was used to assess the impacts of the United States goal of reducing food waste by consumers through various SLE lengths. It was found that uptake of several near-ready-to-deploy SLE technologies would reduce annual food production demand by about 10–19 MMT and supply chain energy consumption by 240–410 PJ in the United States.

Food loss and waste (FLW)↗

Anatomical Fraction segmentation in the biomass bales

The U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) is committed to the development of sustainable, nationwide, commercial biofuel production to displace petroleum-derived fuels, increase domestic energy production, and encourage the creation of a domestic bioenergy and bioproducts industry. Operating a commercial-scale bioenergy operation requires significant technological advancements for determining biomass feedstock quality during the preprocessing stage. Usage of non-food feedstocks- e.g., corn-stover, pine residue, and forest residue - at the biorefineries reduces strain on the food supply chain. But the non-food feedstock heterogeneity- physical size, shape, and chemical composition-poses a significant challenge during milling, conveyance, feeding, and biofuel conversion processes. 3D X-Ray imaging (CT) is capable of distinguishing material features by detecting density and compositional differences. But the inherent complexity introduced during harvesting and bailing makes the reconstruction and interpretation of baled biomass materials from x-ray data time consuming, laborious, and expensive. Feedstocks are low-density materials that produce small contrast differences in the x-ray images. This paper focuses on using the shape and texture properties, using 3D image processing techniques like 3D skeletonization, directional statistics to characterize and extract volumetric content of the different tissue samples in the biomass bales.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Food And Agriculture Supply Chain Model

This model is part of an LDRD effort to investigate the connection of food and agriculture supply chain and the critical infrastructure. The model was built for a small number of farmers, shippers, processing companies and retailers as proof of concept to illustrate supply chain impacts. In this model, the emphasis is on understanding the climate change impacts on the food supply chain. The model uses agent-based modeling method in combination with machine learning. It also connects logistic simulation with economic principles such as price change caused by supply and demand, and consumer substitution effect based on price comparisons of two substitutable commodities.

Nguyen, Thuy↗

Leveraging artificial intelligence and advanced food processing techniques for enhanced food safety, quality, and security: a comprehensive review

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a transformative force in addressing the multifaceted challenges of food safety, food quality, and food security. This review synthesizes advancements in AI-driven technologies, such as machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, and computer vision, and their applications across the food supply chain, based on a comprehensive analysis of literature published from 1990 to 2024. AI enhances food safety through real-time contamination detection, predictive risk modeling, and compliance monitoring, reducing public health risks. It improves food quality by automating defect detection, optimizing shelf-life predictions, and ensuring consistency in taste, texture, and appearance. Furthermore, AI addresses food security by enabling resource-efficient agriculture, yield forecasting, and supply chain optimization to ensure the availability and accessibility of nutritious food resources. This review also highlights the integration of AI with advanced food processing techniques such as high-pressure processing, ultraviolet treatment, pulsed electric fields, cold plasma, and irradiation, which ensure microbial safety, extend shelf life, and enhance product quality. Additionally, the integration of AI with emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things, blockchain, and AI-powered sensors enables proactive risk management, predictive analytics, and automated quality control. By examining these innovations' potential to enhance transparency, efficiency, and decision-making within food systems, this review identifies current research gaps and proposes strategies to address barriers such as data limitations, model generalizability, and ethical concerns. These insights underscore the critical role of AI in advancing safer, higher-quality, and more secure food systems, guiding future research and fostering sustainable food systems that benefit public health and consumer trust.

AI↗

Controlled environment agriculture: An opportunity to strengthen interagency research collaboration in the US government

Challenges facing food production and agricultural systems are increasingly interconnected with economic, security, health, and equity issues, among others. Threats such as extreme weather, economic volatility, and shrinking water resources and arable land, influence our ability to maintain a safe and resilient food supply. One promising solution to these threats is controlled environment agriculture (CEA). In many cases, CEA can drastically reduce the amount of water and land used in crop production while increasing productivity. Operations may be established in nearly any environment and harvests can take place year-round, supporting food system resiliency and sustainability. CEA sits at the nexus of a number of disciplines and industries, making it well suited for transdisciplinary and multi-institutional research coordination. Herein, authors from multiple US government agencies present CEA as a case study in improving cross-agency research collaboration. The federal government houses a range of scientific expertise and research capabilities, positioning scientists to lead national and global efforts in transdisciplinary, interagency approaches to complex challenges. Navigating cross-agency collaboration can be a challenge, especially coordinating across different scientific disciplines, geographic locations, and funding mechanisms. To enhance multiagency efforts, collaborators could prioritize (i) organizing personnel and resources, (ii) enhancing existing multiagency collaborations, and (iii) focusing on further opportunities for coordination. Adopting these approaches could enable federal researchers to reinforce and advance academic and industry efforts to address current CEA challenges while solidifying the United States as a leader in this arena.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Transfer Factors for the FRMAC Assessment Manual and Turbo FRMAC to Improve Radiological Dose Assessment

The Turbo FRMAC analysis tool is used to perform complex calculations to quickly evaluate radiological consequences and aid in decision making during an emergency response by assessing impacts to the public, workers, and the food supply. Turbo FRMAC calculations are based on methods established by the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC). To be able to assess impacts, input data called transfer factors that describe radionuclide uptake by local plants and animals are required. During the code application exercises in late 2016, identifying, finding, and validating nonstandard transfer factors proved to be time consuming and diverted the teams’ activity away from other critical tasks. As a result, a task was undertaken to dramatically expand the list of available transfer factors (food and non-food) and incorporate these factors into Turbo FRMAC. This will ultimately result in improved efficiency of the assessment team to perform calculations during times when the FRMAC is activated and provide more defensible, vetted data from which to calculate results. As a result of these and subsequent exercises, transfer factors were needed for the following items: bell peppers, Christmas tree, deer, flowers, fresh cucumbers, tomatoes, grapefruit, lichens, mushrooms, oranges, snap beans, squash, strawberries, sugarcane for sugar and seed, sweet corn, tea, tobacco, tree bark, and watermelon. To expand the applicability of the information tables, generic transfer data were also provided for common categories and recommendations were made for expanding the list of chemicals based on chemical similarity. The data presented in this report were compiled from recent literature with most of the data encompassing the period from 2000 to 2018. The following radionuclides were targeted during the literature search: elements associated with reactor accidents or nuclear detonations (Sr 89/90, Cs 134/137, Ce 141/144, Ru 103/106, I 129/131/133, Pu 238/239, Am 241, Zr 95, and Nb 95) and elements associated with industrial accidents or dirty bombs (Ir 192 and Co 60). Data from other elements were evaluated if they were identified during the literature search. In addition, reports were evaluated that were recommended by the research consultants. For each plant or animal transfer factor, the goal was to determine the geometric mean, the geometric standard deviation, the minimum, the maximum, and the number of measurements used. If only one measurement was available that was presented as the mean. Concentration ratios with large geometric standard deviations (GSDs) were generally the result of a paucity of measurements or a few disparate measurements. Measurement disparity was observed for data from different soil types. The geometric mean (GM) is a good reference value for planning and responses purposes, but the location-specific concentrations are unlikely to be similar to the model results. Recommendations for further work include: segregating the data to reflect the influence of soil type, developing approaches to incorporate animal data based on aggregated transfer measurements, and including data for foliar deposition on plants.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗