Intermodel spread of the double‐ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs tied to land surface temperature in AMIP GCMs
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Despite the necessity of Global Climate Models (GCMs) sub-selection in downscaling studies, an objective approach for their selection is currently lacking. Building on the previously established concepts in GCMs evaluation frameworks, we develop a weighted averaging technique to remove the redundancy in the evaluation criteria and rank 37 GCMs from the sixth phase of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project over the contiguous United States. GCMs are rated based on their average performance across 66 evaluation measures in the historical period (1981–2014) after each metric is weighted between zero and one, depending on its uniqueness. The robustness of the outcome is tested by repeating the process with the empirical orthogonal function analysis in which each GCM is ranked based on its sum of distances from the reference in the principal component space. The two methodologies work in contrasting ways to remove the metrics redundancy but eventually develop similar GCMs rankings. A disparity in GCMs' behavior related to their sensitivity to the size of the evaluation suite is observed, highlighting the need for comprehensive multi-variable GCMs evaluation at varying timescales for determining their skillfulness over a region. The sub-selection goal is to use a representative set of skillful models over the region of interest without substantial overlap in their future climate responses and modeling errors in representing historical climate. Additional analyses of GCMs' independence and spread in their future projections provide the necessary information to objectively select GCMs while keeping all aspects of necessity in view.
Abstract Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency across much of the land‐surface as the global climate warms, but such projections have typically relied on coarse‐resolution (100–250 km) general circulation models (GCMs). The ensemble of HighResMIP GCMs presents an opportunity to evaluate how a more finely resolved atmosphere and land‐surface might enhance the fidelity of the simulated contribution of large‐magnitude storms to total precipitation, particularly across topographically complex terrain. Here, the simulation of large‐storm dominance, that is, the number of wettest days to reach half of the total annual precipitation, is quantified across the western United States (WUS) using four GCMs within the HighResMIP ensemble and their coarse resolution counterparts. Historical GCM simulations (1950–2014) are evaluated against a baseline generated from station‐observed daily precipitation (4,803 GHCN‐D stations) and from three gridded, observationally based precipitation data sets that are coarsened to match the resolution of the GCMs. All coarse‐resolution simulations produce less large‐storm dominance than in observations across the WUS. For two of the four GCMs, bias in the median large‐storm dominance is reduced in the HighResMIP simulation, decreasing by as much as 62% in the intermountain west region. However, the other GCMs show little change or even an increase (+28%) in bias of median large‐storm dominance across multiple sub‐regions. The spread in differences with resolution amongst GCMs suggests that, in addition to resolution, model structure and parameterization of precipitation generating processes also contribute to bias in simulated large‐storm dominance.
The GCMS was part of the instrument complement on the Cassini-Huygens Probe to measure in situ the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the probe descent and coupled with the Aerosol Collector Pyrolyser (ACP) experiment by serving as detector for the pyrolization products to determine the composition of the aerosol particles. The GCMS employed a quadrupole mass filter with a secondary electron multiplier detection system and a gas sampling system providing continuous direct atmospheric composition measurements and batch sampling through three gas chromatographic (GC) columns, a chemical scrubber and a hydrocarbon enrichment cell. The GCMS gas inlet was heated to prevent condensation, and to evaporate volatiles from the surface after impact. The GCMS collected data from an altitude of 146 km to ground impact. The Probe and the GCMS survived impact and collected data for 1 hour and 9 minutes on the surface. Mass spectra were collected during descent and on the ground over a range of m/z from 2 to 141. The major constituents of the lower atmosphere were confirmed to be NP and CH4. The methane mole fraction was uniform in the stratosphere. It increased below the tropopause, at about 32 km altitude, monotonically toward the surface, reaching a plateau at about 8 km at a level near saturation. After surface impact a steep increase of the methane signal was observed, suggesting evaporation of surface condensed methane due to heating by the GCMS sample inlet heater. The measured mole fraction of Ar-40 is 4.3 x 10(exp-5) and of Ar-36 is 2.8 x 10(exp -7). The other primordial noble gases were below mole fraction. The isotope ratios of C-12/C-13 determined from methane measurements are 82.3 and of N-14/N-15 determined from molecular nitrogen are 183. The D/H isotope ratio determined from the H2 and HD measurements is 2.3 x l0(exp -4). Carbon dioxide, ethane, acetylene and cyanogen were detected evaporating from the surface in addition to methane.
The Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer was one of six instruments on the Cassini-Huygens Probe mission to Titan. The GCMS measured in situ the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the probe descent and served as the detector for the pyrolization products for the Aerosol Collector Pyrolyser (ACP) experiment to determine the composition of the aerosol particles. The GCMS collected data from an altitude of 146 km to ground impact. The Probe and the GCMS survived impact and collected data for 1 hour and 9 minutes on the surface. Mass spectra were collected during descent and on the ground over a range of m/z from 2 to 141. The major constituents of the lower atmosphere were confirmed to be N2 and CH4. The methane mole fraction was uniform in the stratosphere. It increased below the tropopause, at about 32 km altitude, monotonically toward the surface, reaching a plateau at about 8 km at a level near saturation. After surface impact a steep increase of the methane signal was observed, suggesting evaporation of surface condensed methane due to heating by the GCMS sample inlet heater. The measured mole fraction of Ar-40 is 4.3x10(exp -5) and of Ar-36 is 2.8x10(exp -7). The other primordial noble gases were below 10(exp -8) mole fraction. The isotope ratios of C-12/C-13 determined from methane measurements are 82.3 and of N-14/N-15 determined from molecular nitrogen are 183. The D/H isotope ratio determined from the H2 and HD measurements is 2.3x10(exp -4). Carbon dioxide, methane, acetylene and cyanogen were detected evaporating from the surface in addition to methane. The GCMS employed a quadrupole mass filter with a secondary electron multiplier detection system and a gas sampling system providing continuous direct atmospheric composition measurements and batch sampling through three gas chromatographic (GC) columns, a chemical scrubber and a hydrocarbon enrichment cell. The GCMS gas inlet was heated to prevent condensation, and to evaporate volatiles from the surface after impact.
The Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer was one of six instruments on the Cassini-Huygens Probe mission to Titan. The GCMS measured in situ the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the probe descent and served as the detector for the pyrolization products for the Aerosol Collector Pyrolyser (ACP) experiment to determine the composition of the aerosol particles. The GCMS collected data from an altitude of 146 km to ground impact. The Probe and the GCMS survived impact and collected data for 1 hour and 9 minutes on the surface. Mass spectra were collected during descent and on the ground over a range of mlz from 2 to 141. The major constituents of the lower atmosphere were confirmed to be N2 and CH4. The methane mole fraction was uniform in the stratosphere. It increased below the tropopause, at about 32 km altitude, monotonically toward the surface, reaching a plateau at about 8 km at a level near saturation. After surface impact a steep increase of the methane signal was observed, suggesting evaporation of surface condensed methane due to heating by the GCMS sample inlet heater. The measured mole fraction of Ar-40 is 4.3x10(exp -5) and of Ar-36 is 2.8x10(exp -7). The other primordial noble gases were below 10(exp -8) mole fraction. The isotope ratios of C-12/C-13 determined from methane measurements are 82.3 and of N-14/N-15 determined from molecular nitrogen are 183. The D/H isotope ratio determined from the H2 and HD measurements is 2.3x10(exp -4). Carbon dioxide, ethane, acetylene and cyanogen were detected evaporating from the surface in addition to methane. The GCMS employed a quadrupole mass filter with a secondary electron multiplier detection system and a gas sampling system providing continuous direct atmospheric composition measurements and batch sampling through three gas chromatographic (GC) columns, a chemical scrubber and a hydrocarbon enrichment cell. The GCMS gas inlet was heated to prevent condensation, and to evaporate volatiles from the surface after impact.
As a salient feature of the Asian monsoon system, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ) exerts significant impacts on weather and climate changes in China and even throughout East Asia. In this paper, we applied a new self-adaptive algorithm to detect the EASWJ, identify its boundaries, and then represent its characteristics by defining three indices: the intensity index, meridional displacement index, and width index. Compared to the reanalysis data, we carried out a comprehensive, objective, and quantitative EASWJ evaluation using historical experiments from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results show that the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of both CMIP5 and CMIP6 can simulate the characteristics of winter EASWJ well. While for the other three seasons, the MME of both phase models underestimate the 200-hPa zonal wind (U200) strength in the jet coverage area and overestimate the U200 outside the jet area, such simulation results weaken the meridional shear of the wind field. The EASWJ simulations from the CMIP5 GCMs had no consistent intensity or location characteristic tendencies, and most CMIP5 GCMs tended to simulate relatively wide-coverage jets. In contrast, most CMIP6 GCMs are inclined to simulate significantly weaker, wider, and more-northward jets. Compared to the predecessors in CMIP5, about half of CMIP6 GCMs significantly minimized the jet intensity bias, but remarkable errors were still observed in their jet location and coverage representations. Furthermore, the comparative analysis performed by classifying models based on their evaluated simulation results suggested that the simulated performance of the meridional temperature gradient was important for capturing the EASWJ characteristics. Further in-depth study of the causes of model differences is warranted to improve simulation results.
The Huygens Probe executed a successful entry, descent and impact on the Saturnian moon of Titan on January 14, 2005. The Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer (GCMS) instrument conducted isotopic and compositional measurements throughout the two and one half hour descent from 146 km altitude, and on the surface for 69 minutes until loss of signal from the orbiting Cassini spacecraft. The GCMS incorporated a quadrupole mass filter with a secondary electron multiplier detection system. The gas sampling system provided continuous direct atmospheric composition measurements and batch sampling through three gas chromatographic (GC) columns, a chemical scrubber and a hydrocarbon enrichment cell. The GCMS gas inlet was heated to prevent condensation, and to evaporate volatiles from the surface after impact. Data products from the GCMS included altitude profiles of the major atmospheric constituents dinitrogen (N2) and methane (CH4), isotope ratios of 14N/15N, 12C/13C, and D/H, mole fractions of radiogenic argon (40Ar) and primordial argon (36Ar), and upper limits on the mole fractions of neon, krypton and xenon, which were found to be absent. Surface measurements confirmed the presence of ethane (C2H6) and cyanogen (C2N2). Later data products expanded atmospheric profiles to include the surface response of C2N2. C2H6, acetylene (C2H2), and carbon dioxide (CO2). More recent results include the profiles of benzene (C6H6) and molecular hydrogen (H2). The GCMS data are being further analyzed to obtain higher precision results and to identify other trace species ion the atmosphere and evaporating from the surface.
The primary task for the summer was to procure the GCMS data from the National Space Science Data Coordinated Archive (NSSDCA) and to assess the current state of the data set for possible reanalysis opportunities. After procurement of the Viking GCMS data set and analysis of its current state, the internship focus shifted to preparing a plan for restoral and archiving of the GCMS data set. A proposal was prepared and submitted to NASA Headquarters to restore and make available the 8000 mass chromatographs that are the basic data generated by the Viking GCMS instrument. The relevance of this restoral and the methodology we propose for restoral is presented. The secondary task for the summer is to develop a thermal model for the perceived temperature of a human standing on Mars, Titan, or Europa. Traditionally, an equation called "Fanger's comfort equation" is used to measure the perceived temperature by a human in a given reference environment. However, there are limitations to this model when applied to other planets. Therefore, the approach for this project has been to derive energy balance equations from first principles and then develop a methodology for correlating "comfort" to energy balance. Using the -20 C walk-in freezer in the Space Sciences building at NASA Ames, energy loss of a human subject is measured. Energy loss for a human being on Mars, Titan and Europa are calculated from first principles. These calculations are compared to the freezer measurements, e.g. for 1 minute on Titan, a human loses as much energy as x minutes in a -20 C freezer. This gives a numerical comparison between the environments. These energy calculations are used to consider the physiological comfort of a human based on the calculated energy losses.
The Huygens Probe of the Cassini Huygens Mission entered the atmosphere of the moon Titan on January 14, 2005. The GCMS was part of the instrument complement on the probe to measure in situ the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the probe descent and to support the Aerosol Collector Pyrolyzer (ACP) experiment by serving as detector for the pyrolization products. The GCMS collected data from an altitude of 146 km to ground impact for a time interval of 2hours and 37minutes. The Probe and the GCMS survived the ground impact and collected data for 1hour and 9 minutes on the surface in the near surface environment until signal loss by the orbiter. The major constituents of the lower atmosphere were found to be N2 and CH4. The methane-mixing ratio was found to increase below the turbopause, about 35 km altitude, monotonically toward the surface to levels near saturation. After surface impact a steep increase of the mixing ratio was observed suggesting evaporation of surface condensed methane due to heating by the GCMS sample inlet heater. Other constituents were found to be in very low concentrations, below ppm levels. The presence of Argon 40 was confirmed. The results for the other noble gases are still being evaluated. Other hydrocarbons and nitriles were also observed and quantitative evaluation is in progress. Preliminary ratios for the major carbon and nitrogen isotopes were computed from methane and molecular nitrogen measurements. The instrument collected 5634 mass spectra during descent and 2692 spectra on the ground over a range of m/z from 2 to 141. Eight gas chromatograph samples were taken during the descent and two on the ground.
The Huygens Probe of the Cassini Huygens Mission entered the atmosphere of the moon Titan on January 14, 2005. The GCMS was part of the instrument complement on the Probe to measure in situ the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the probe descent and to support the Aerosol Collector Pyrolyzer (ACP) experiment by serving as detector for the pyrolization products. The GCMS collected data from an altitude of 146 km to ground impact for a time interval of 2 hours and 37 minutes. The Probe and the GCMS survived the ground impact and collected data for 1 hour and 9 minutes on the surface in the near surface environment until signal loss by the orbiter. The instrument collected 5634 mass spectra during descent and 2692 spectra on the ground over a range of m/z from 2 to 141. Eight gas chromatograph samples were taken during the descent and two on the ground. This is a report on work in progress. The major constituents of the lower atmosphere were found to be N2 and CH4. The methane-mixing ratio was found to increase below the turbopause, about 35 km altitude, monotonically toward the surface to levels near saturation. After surface impact a steep increase of the mixing ratio was observed suggesting evaporation of surface condensed methane due to heating by the GCMS sample inlet heater. Other constituents were found to be in very low concentrations, below ppm levels. The presence of Argon 40 was confirmed. The results for the other noble gases are still being evaluated. Other hydrocarbons and nitriles were also observed and quantitative evaluation is in progress. Preliminary ratios for the major carbon and nitrogen isotopes were computed from methane and molecular nitrogen measurements.
Abstract The frequency of atmospheric blocking has been largely underestimated by general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Errors in the onset, persistence, barotropicity, geographical preference, seasonality, intensity, and moving speed of global blocking were diagnosed in 10 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCMs for recent CMIP5 and CMIP6 using a detection approach that combines zonal eddies and the reversal of zonal winds. The blocking frequency, similar at 500 and 250 hPa, is underestimated by 50% in the Atlantic–Europe region during December–February but is overestimated by 60% in the Pacific–North America region during that season and by 70% in the southwest Pacific during July–August. These blocking biases at 500 hPa were investigated in the five CMIP6 models that showed improvements over the CMIP5 versions. The Atlantic–Europe underestimate corresponds to lower instantaneous blocking rates, lower persistent blocking rates, and higher persistent stationary ridge rates; the number of blocks with a duration of 4–5 days is only 40%–65% of that in observations. In contrast, the overestimate consists of excessive blocks with a duration longer than 12 days in the Pacific–North America and up to twice as many 4–6-day events in the southwest Pacific. Simulated December–February blocks up to 12 days in the Pacific–North America region tend to be stronger and to move more slowly than those in observations. Diagnostic sensitivity tests indicated that the zonal mean and zonal eddy components of the mean state play a key role, as replacing each with that of observations substantially reduced many of the outstanding biases in these GCMs.
Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs), unlike other lines of evidence, indicate that anthropogenic aerosols cause a global-mean increase in cloud liquid water path (ℒ) and thus a negative adjustment to radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions. In part 1 of this series of papers, we showed that this is true even in models that reproduce the negative correlation observed in present-day internal variability in ℒ and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). We studied several possible confounding mechanisms that could explain the noncausal cloud–aerosol correlations in GCMs and that possibly contaminate observational estimates of radiative adjustments. Here, we perform single-column and full-atmosphere GCM experiments to investigate the causal model-physics mechanisms underlying the model radiative adjustment estimate. We find that both aerosol–cloud interaction mechanisms thought to be operating in real clouds – precipitation suppression and entrainment evaporation enhancement – are active in GCMs and behave qualitatively in agreement with physical process understanding. However, the modeled entrainment enhancement has a negligible global-mean effect. This raises the question of whether the GCM estimate is incorrect due to parametric or base-state representation errors or whether the process understanding gleaned from a limited set of canonical cloud cases is insufficiently representative of the diversity of clouds in the real climate. Regardless, even at limited resolution, the GCM physics appears able to parameterize the small-scale microphysics–turbulence interplay responsible for the entrainment enhancement mechanism. We suggest ways to resolve tension between current and future (storm-resolving) global modeling systems and other lines of evidence in synthesis climate projections.
A variable resolution GCM using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over the area(s) of interest, is a viable new approach to regional and subregional climate studies and applications. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The first version of the SG-GCM based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM using a finite-difference approximation, has been developed and thoroughly tested during the last few years. Successful simulations have been performed with the SG-GCM for the anomalous regional climate events of the U.S. 1988 summer drought and 1993 summer flood. They have shown the practical feasibility of the SG-approach for regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) incorporating the SG-GCM has also been developed and tested. The assimilated regional fields and diagnostics are used for validating the SG-GCM regional simulations. Two new SG-GCMs are being developed. The first is the SG-version of the new NASANCAR FV-GCM (with the finite-volume (FV) dynamics), and the second is the SG-version of the new GCM with spectral-element dynamics. Both GCMs use the WAR CCM4 physics. Using these advanced numerics will provide increased computational efficiency for the new the SG-GCMs, and will allow us to employ more flexible stretching strategies beneficial for the efficient regional down-scaling. The major current developments are focused on: simulating the 1997-1999 (and beyond) ENSO cycle and related monsoonal circulations, with enhanced regional resolution; studying intraseasonal and interannual regional climate variability for the extended multiyear (AMIP-type) SG-GCM simulations; and studying the impact of ensemble integrations.
It is recognized that the resolved tropical wave spectrum can vary considerably between general circulation models (GCMs) and that these differences can have an important impact on the simulated climate. A comprehensive comparison of the waves is presented for the December-January-February period using high-frequency (three-hourly) data archives from eight GCMs and one simple model participating in the GCM Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS). Quantitative measures of the structure and causes of the wavenumber-frequency structure of resolved waves and their impacts on the climate are given. Space-time spectral analysis reveals that the wave spectrum throughout the middle atmosphere is linked to variability of convective precipitation, which is determined by the parameterized convection. The variability of the precipitation spectrum differs by more than an order of magnitude between the models, with additional changes in the spectral distribution (especially the frequency). These differences can be explained primarily by the choice of different, cumulus par amet erizations: quasi-equilibrium mass-flux schemes tend to produce small variability, while the moist-convective adjustment scheme is most active. Comparison with observational estimates of precipitation variability suggests that the model values are scattered around the truth. This result indicates that a significant portion of the forcing of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is provided by waves with scales that are not resolved in present-day GCMs, since only the moist convective adjustment scheme (which has the largest transient variability) can force a QBO in models that have no parameterization of non-stationary gravity waves. Parameterized cumulus convection also impacts the nonmigrating tides in the equatorial region. In most of the models, momentum transport by diurnal nonmigrating tides in the mesosphere is larger than that by Kelvin waves, being more significant than has been thought. It is shown that the equatorial semi-annual oscillation in the models examined is driven mainly by gravity waves with periods shorter than three days, with at least some contribution from parameterized gravity waves; the contribution from the ultra-fast zonal wavenumber-1 Kelvin waves is negligible.
The Huygens Probe of the Cassini Huygens Mission entered the atmosphere of the moon Titan on January 14,2005. The GCMS was part of the instrument complement on the Probe to measure in situ the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the probe descent and to support the Aerosol Collector Pyrolyser (ACP) experiment by serving as detector for the pyrolization products. The GCMS employed a quadrupole mass filter with a secondary electron multiplier detection system and a gas sampling system providing continuous direct atmospheric composition measurements and batch sampling through three gas chromatographic (GC) columns. The mass spectrometer employed five electron impact ion sources with available electron energies of either 70 or 25 eV. Three ion sources served as detectors for the GC columns and two were dedicated to direct atmosphere sampling and ACP gas sampling, respectively. The GCMS gas inlet was heated to prevent condensation, and served to evaporate surface constituents after impact.
The Cassini/Huygens mission has vastly increased the information we have available to stndy Satnro's moon Titan. The complete mission has included an array of observational methods including remote sensing techniques, upper atmosphere in-situ saropling, and the descent of the Huygens probe directly through the atmosphere to the surface [1,2]. The instruments on the Huygens probe remain the ouly source of in-situ measurements at the surface of Titan, and work evaluating these measurements to create a pict.rre of the surface environment is ongoing. In particular, the Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer (GCMS) experiment on Huygens found that although there were no heavy hydrocarbons detected in the lower atmosphere, a rich spectrum of mass peaks arose once the probe landed on the surface [3,4], However, to date it has not been possible to extract the identity and abundances of the many minor components of the spectra due to a lack of temperatnre- and instrumentappropriate data for the relevant species. We are performing laboratory stndies designed to elucidate the spectrum collected on Titan's surface, utilizing a cryogenic charober maintained at appropriate temperature and pressure conditions. The experiments will simulate the temperatnre rise experienced by the surface, which led to an enhanced signal of volatiles detected by the Huygens GCMS. The objective of this study is to exaroine the characteristics of various surface analogs as measured by the Huygens GCMS flight spare instrument, which is currently housed in our laboratory at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). This identification cannot be adequately accomplished through theoretical work alone since the thermodynamic properties of many species at these temperatnres (94 K, HASI measurement [5]) are not known.
Abiotic synthesis of complex organic compounds in the early solar nebula that formed our solar system is hypothesized to occur via a Fischer-Tropsch type (FTT) synthesis involving the reaction of hydrogen and carbon monoxide gases over metal and metal oxide catalysts. In general, at low temperatures (less than 200 C), FTT synthesis is expected to form abundant alkane compounds while at higher temperatures (greater than 200 C) it is expected to product lesser amounts of n-alkanes and greater amounts of alkene, alcohol, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Experiments utilizing a closed-gas circulation system to study the effects of FTT reaction temperature, catalysts, and number of experimental cycles on the resulting solid insoluble organic products are being performed in the laboratory at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These experiments aim to determine whether or not FTT reactions on grain surfaces in the protosolar nebula could be the source of the insoluble organic matter observed in meteorites. The resulting solid organic products are being analyzed at NASA Johnson Space Center by pyrolysis gas chromatography mass spectrometry (PY-GCMS). PY-GCMS yields the types and distribution of organic compounds released from the insoluble organic matter generated from the FTT reactions. Previously, exploratory work utilizing PY-GCMS to characterize the deposited organic materials from these reactions has been reported. Presented here are new organic analyses using magnetite catalyst to produce solid insoluble organic FTT products with varying reaction temperatures and number of experimental cycles.