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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Geomagnetic Storm Effects on Ionospheric Irregularities: Insights from SuperDARN, Madrigal GPS TEC, and ISR Data [Slides]

Geomagnetic disturbances trigger an influx of electrons from the magnetosphere, leading to an increase electron density (even in lower altitudes), amplified ionospheric currents, and subsequently, increased conductance. A surge in the AE index, indicating heightened auroral currents, correlates with a rise in precipitated charged particles, including electrons, into the polar ionosphere. This correlation is detectable through increased parameter values measured by SuperDARN. The downward flow of electron density towards lower altitudes, as observed in PFISR data, potentially obstructs the transmission frequency from radar stations passing through the PFISR location (just like we saw in the KOD station). During the geomagnetic storm, there is increased backscatter power (increased amount of ionospheric irregularities), and the plasma flow draws closer to the radar, suggesting a possible southward shift in the auroral oval as a result of the heightened auroral activity. Increased geomagnetic activity correlates with an elevation in average TEC and induces the occurrence of SED (Storm Enhanced Density).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Off-Line-of-Sight Propagation Effects on Geomagnetic EMP from High-Altitude Bursts

The three-dimensional geometry associated with off-line-of-sight gamma emission in high-altitude bursts causes delays between creation of ionization and EMP arrival along the propagation path to the ground observer. These delays make the conductivity experienced by the EMP a function of the gamma emission angle. Legacy EMP codes, such as CHAP, are one-dimensional and cannot treat this EMP arrival delay. Comparison of CHAP calculations with those using the author’s three-dimensional MACSYNC code show significant differences in amplitude and shape of the computed EMP. Thus use of CHAP appears inadvisable for National security applications of EMP relying on detailed knowledge of the field. New codes solving Maxwell’s equations in three dimensions, being developed by the EMP community, ought to be used instead.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Do solar cycles influence giant cell arteritis and rheumatoid arthritis incidence?

Our objective was to examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on the incidence of giant cell arteritis (GCA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: We used data from patients with GCA (1950-2004) and RA (1955-2007) obtained from population-based cohorts. Yearly trends in age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence were correlated with the F10.7 index (solar radiation at 10.7 cm wavelength, a proxy for the solar extreme ultraviolet radiation) and AL index (a proxy for the westward auroral electrojet and a measure of geomagnetic activity). Fourier analysis was performed on AL, F10.7, and GCA and RA incidence rates. Results: The correlation of GCA incidence with AL is highly significant: GCA incidence peaks 0-1 year after the AL reaches its minimum (ie, auroral electrojet reaches a maximum). The correlation of RA incidence with AL is also highly significant. RA incidence rates are lowest 5-7 years after AL reaches maximum. AL, GCA and RA incidence power spectra are similar: they have a main peak (periodicity) at about 10 years and a minor peak at 4-5 years. However, the RA incidence power spectrum main peak is broader (8-11 years), which partly explains the lower correlation between RA onset and AL. The auroral electrojets may be linked to the decline of RA incidence more strongly than the onset of RA. The incidences of RA and GCA are aligned in geomagnetic latitude. Conclusions: AL and the incidences of GCA and RA all have a major periodicity of about 10 years and a secondary periodicity at 4-5 years. Geomagnetic activity may explain the temporal and spatial variations, including east-west skewness in geographic coordinates, in GCA and RA incidence, although the mechanism is unknown. Lastly, the link with solar, geospace and atmospheric parameters need to be investigated. These novel findings warrant examination in other populations and with other autoimmune diseases.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Literature Review of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) and Geomagnetic Disturbance (GMD) Effects on Oil and Gas Pipeline Systems

This document summarizes the findings of a review of published literature regarding the potential impacts of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) phenomena on oil and gas pipeline systems. The impacts of telluric currents on pipelines and their associated cathodic protection systems has been well studied. The existing literature describes implications for corrosion protection system design and monitoring to mitigate these impacts. Effects of an EMP on pipelines is not a thoroughly explored subject. Most directly related articles only present theoretical models and approaches rather than specific analyses and in-field testing. Literature on SCADA components and EMP is similarly sparse and the existing articles show a variety of impacts to control system components that range from upset and damage to no effect. The limited research and the range of observed impacts for the research that has been published suggests the need for additional work on GMD and EMP and natural gas SCADA components.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Computational Analysis and Optimized Modeling of Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Power Transformers

In this project we aim to better understand the effect of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) on power transformers. Expanding upon our previous work focused on producing a methodology for accuracy-enhanced computation of GIC signatures (i.e., time-domain current magnitude variation for the event duration) from a combination of physics-based and data-driven computational tools, we propose the use of these GIC signatures as inputs for a physically-detailed and optimized model of the power transformer to investigate how GIC determination and transformer modeling influence the evaluation of GIC effects on the transformer operation, as well as in its interaction with the power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Industry Requirements for Geomagnetic Disturbance Models

This research project will address the most pressing uncertainties in modeling and measuring the electric power grid effects of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and the E3 portion of nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The primary goal is to help decision-makers in the electric power sector have the knowledge and tools they need to most effectively mitigate GMD effects on our nation’s electric grid, with a secondary focus on EMP. Comprehensive modeling, model assessment through sensitivity analysis, and validation with field measurement data will be the primary tasks undertaken. The goal will be a more widespread adoption of these modeling approaches, namely characterizing the uncertainty associated with these models and how that uncertainty will affect decision-making by industry. This document summarizes industry requirements for better decision-making tools, informed by feedback from an industry advisory board. These requirements help guide planning and execution of the project's remaining tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Effects-Based Monitoring of Geomagnetically-Induced Current Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Geomagnetically-induced current (GIC) due to space weather can flow in the power grid causing undesirable effects such as transformer overheating, misoperation of protection devices, and potential blackouts. It is therefore important to monitor GIC in the power grid to improve online situational awareness and decision-making of system operators during a geomagnetic disturbance. To avoid the costly installation of GIC monitors at transformers’ neutrals, it is desirable to find correlations between GIC and already-monitored parameters. Hence, this work proposed the use of a convolutional neural network (CNN) to compute GIC amplitudes from learned patterns in the time-series data of transformer even harmonic currents. Using an electromagnetic transient program, GIC injection simulations were performed for a modeled Dominion Energy Virginia (DEV) substation with two 504 MVA, 500/230 kV transformers. Data collected from these offline simulations were used to train the CNN to provide online GIC monitoring. Testing the CNN performance involved using real GIC measurements from published literature and from a physical GIC monitor in the DEV area. Finally, the results showed that the proposed method was able to provide GIC readings with a root mean squared error of 1.56 A/phase (equivalent to an average accuracy of 94%) for these real GIC waveforms.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A DETERMINATION OF THE NORTH–SOUTH HELIOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT FROM INNER CORONA CLOSED-LOOP PROPAGATION

A component of the magnetic field measured in situ near the Earth in the solar wind is present from north–south fields from the low solar corona. Using the Current-sheet Source Surface model, these fields can be extrapolated upward from near the solar surface to 1 AU. Global velocities inferred from a combination of interplanetary scintillation observations matched to in situ velocities and densities provide the extrapolation to 1 AU assuming mass and mass flux conservation. The north–south field component is compared with the same ACE in situ magnetic field component—the Normal (Radial Tangential Normal) Bn coordinate—for three years throughout the solar minimum of the current solar cycle. We find a significant positive correlation throughout this period between this method of determining the Bn field compared with in situ measurements. Given this result from a study during the latest solar minimum, this indicates that a small fraction of the low-coronal Bn component flux regularly escapes from closed field regions. The prospects for Space Weather, where the knowledge of a Bz field at Earth is important for its geomagnetic field effects, is also now enhanced. This is because the Bn field provides the major portion of the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric Bz field coordinate that couples most closely to the Earth’s geomagnetic field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probabilistic Impact Assessment and Software Tool Requirements

This research project will address the most pressing uncertainties in modeling and measuring the electric power grid effects of geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs) and the E3 portion of nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP). The primary goal is to help decision-makers in the electric power sector have the knowledge and tools they need to most effectively mitigate GMD effects on the North American electric grid, with a secondary focus on EMP response. Primary tasks will involve comprehensive modeling,

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

First Analysis of Earth's Stratospheric γ ‐Ray Emission in Geographical Coordinates With Fermi LAT

Abstract From low‐Earth orbit, the Earth is an extremely bright γ ‐ray source compared to distant astrophysical objects. The high‐energy γ ‐ray emission, from the Earth's upper atmosphere, is produced by the interactions between cosmic rays (CRs) and air molecules. As CRs are predominantly charged particles, the geomagnetic field acts as a spectrometer, forbidding CRs below a certain energy to arrive and interact with the atmosphere at a given geomagnetic location from a given direction. We use photon data between 0.2 and 20 GeV as observed by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) to create, for the first time, stratospheric γ ‐ray emission maps of the Earth in the geographical coordinate system, for different viewing directions from LAT altitude. These maps confirm a strong association between measured γ ‐ray fluxes and geomagnetic cutoffs for CRs. We also report the spectrum of the Earth's stratospheric γ ‐ray emission in cardinal directions and use the geomagnetic spectrometer effect to infer the atmosphere's yield function of γ rays per incoming CR proton as a function of CR rigidity at the altitude of the Fermi spacecraft. This work is relevant to the study of near‐Earth radiation exposure for astronauts and spacecraft, modeling the geomagnetic field, and CR‐air interactions.

Madlee, S.↗

Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms

We report that past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms (Dst >₋50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result in flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Constraining the p¯/p ratio in TeV cosmic rays with observations of the Moon shadow by HAWC

An indirect measurement of the antiproton flux in cosmic rays is possible as the particles undergo deflection by the geomagnetic field. This effect can be measured by studying the deficit in the flux, or shadow, created by the Moon as it absorbs cosmic rays that are headed toward the Earth. The shadow is displaced from the actual position of the Moon due to geomagnetic deflection, which is a function of the energy and charge of the cosmic rays. The displacement provides a natural tool for momentum/charge discrimination that can be used to study the composition of cosmic rays. Using 33 months of data comprising more than 80 billion cosmic rays measured by the High Altitude Water Cherenkov observatory, we have analyzed the Moon shadow to search for TeV antiprotons in cosmic rays. Here, we present our first upper limits on the p¯/p fraction, which in the absence of any direct measurements provide the tightest available constraints of ~1 % on the antiproton fraction for energies between 1 and 10 TeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Recommendations for Next-Generation Ground Magnetic Perturbation Validation

Data-model validation of ground magnetic perturbation forecasts, specifically of the time rate of change of surface magnetic field, dB/dt, is a critical task for model development and for mitigation of geomagnetically induced current effects. While a current, community-accepted standard for dB/dt validation exists (Pulkkinen et al., 2013), it has several limitations that prevent more complete understanding of model capability. This work presents recommendations from the International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment Ground Magnetic Perturbation Working Team for creating a next-generation validation suite. Four recommendations are made to address the existing suite: greatly expand the number of ground observatories used, expand the number of events included in the suite from six to eight, generate metrics as a function of magnetic local time, and generate metrics as a function of activity type. For each of these, implementation details are explored. Limitations and future considerations are also discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnetopause Reconnection as Influenced by the Dipole Tilt Under Southward IMF Conditions: Hybrid Simulation and MMS Observation

Abstract Using a three‐dimensional (3‐D) global‐scale hybrid code, the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) reconnection event around 02:13 UT on 18 November 2015, highlighted in the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Dayside Kinetic Challenge, is simulated, in which the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) points southward and the geomagnetic field has a −27° dipole tilt angle. Strong southward plasma jets are found near the magnetopause as a result of the dayside reconnection. Our results indicate that the subsolar magnetopause reconnection X line shifts from the subsolar point toward the Northern Hemisphere due to the effect of the tilted geomagnetic dipole angle, consistent with the MMS observation. Subsequently, the reconnection X lines or sites and reconnection flux ropes above the equator propagate northward along the magnetopause. The formation and global distribution of the X lines and the structure of the magnetopause reconnection are investigated in detail with the simulation. Mirror mode waves are also found in the middle of the magnetosheath downstream of the quasi‐perpendicular shock where the plasma properties are consistent with the mirror instability condition. As a special outcome of the GEM challenge event, the spatial and temporal variations in reconnection, the electromagnetic power spectra, and the associated D‐shaped ion velocity distributions in the simulated reconnection event are compared with the MMS observation.

Guo, Zhifang↗

The effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt

Using the electron phase space density (PSD) data measured by Van Allen Probe A from January 2013 to April 2015, we investigate the effects of magnetospheric processes on relativistic electron dynamics in the Earth's outer radiation belt during 50 geomagnetic storms. A statistical study shows that the maximum electron PSDs for various μ (μ = 630, 1096, 2290, and 3311 MeV/G) at L*~4.0 after the storm peak have good correlations with storm intensity (cc~0.70). This suggests that the occurrence and magnitude of geomagnetic storms are necessary for relativistic electron enhancements at the inner edge of the outer radiation belt (L* = 4.0). For moderate or weak storm events (SYM–H min > ~–100 nT) with weak substorm activity (AE max < 800 nT) and strong storm events (SYM–H min ≤ ~–100 nT) with intense substorms (AE max ≥ 800 nT) during the recovery phase, the maximum electron PSDs for various μ at different L* values (L* = 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0) are well correlated with storm intensity (cc > 0.77). For storm events with intense substorms after the storm peak, relativistic electron enhancements at L* = 4.5 and 5.0 are observed. This shows that intense substorms during the storm recovery phase are crucial to relativistic electron enhancements in the heart of the outer radiation belt. In conclusion, our statistics study suggests that magnetospheric processes during geomagnetic storms have a significant effect on relativistic electron dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assessment of Variability of the TEC in the Equatorial Anomaly Region with a Focus over Africa Using Rz and F10.7 as Input Drivers

This paper mainly intends to address the assessment of altitudinal variability of the vertical total electron content (VTEC) extracted from the Global Positioning System (GPS), the new versions of the International Reference Ionosphere Extended to the Plasmasphere (IRI-Plas 2017), and a quick-run ionospheric electron density (NeQuick 2) model in the equatorial anomaly region with a focus over Africa. This is manipulated employing the daily sunspot number (Rz) and 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7) indices as the driver for the models during 2013–2016. The results show that the GPS-derived VTEC values are generally smaller than the modeled VTEC (IRI-Plas 2017 and NeQuick 2 VTEC) values, especially while utilizing the models with the Rz index. The modeled VTEC values are closer to the GPS VTEC values while using the models with the F10.7 index than Rz. The VTEC values obtained while using both models with the F10.7 index tend to increase while traversing from the high to the low solar activity years (especially in the March equinox and December solstice). The top-side ionospheric and plasmaspheric layers contribute the highest and lowest values to the total VTEC. Hence, the signal propagation through the ionosphere is largely affected when the signal crosses the top-side layer. Unlike other layers, due to the limited impact of the EUV on the ionization of neutral particles in the plasmasphere, the VTEC in the plasmaspheric layer (ECpl) shows smooth pattern with similar hourly values. Moreover, the IRI-Plas 2017 model does not effectively respond to the geomagnetic storm time variability of the VTEC with altitude.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗