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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Forecasting Geomagnetic Storms

We present a selection of attempts to infer geomagnetic storm properties from time series data. Initially, we unsuccessfully attempt to predict the duration of a geomagnetic storm based on data preceding the onset of a geomagnetic storm. Similar techniques are also used to attempt to predict the maximum depth of a geomagnetic storm. Additionally, we present a case study in Gaussian Process regression, where we are able to accurately interpolate between geomagnetic storm parameters, but are unable to predict future storm behavior. Lastly, we describe attempts at using random forest regression with sliding windows to infer geomagnetic storm behavior at future times. These results did not provide robust forecasts of geomagnetic storm behavior, but did occasionally correctly predict a storm within the margin of error. Techniques presented in this paper include machine learning classification and regression, Gaussian Process regression, and machine learning regression with sliding windows. Many of the attempts presented in this document did not result in meaningful predictions of geomagnetic storm behavior. We hope this document can be used as a guide for future readers attempting to predict geomagnetic storm properties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and the K p index

Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index K p in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic K p predictions using a variety of methods – including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks – but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead K p prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm (K p ≥ 5 – ) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electron Dropout Events and Flux Enhancements Associated With Geomagnetic Storms Observed by PROBA-V/Energetic Particle Telescope From 2013 to 2019

Electron flux variations for E > 500 keV during geomagnetic storms are investigated using the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT). This detector launched in May 2013 on board the satellite PROBA-V at an altitude of 820 km was designed to provide uncontaminated spectra of electrons, protons, and alpha particles. Electron flux dropout events are observed during the main phase of each storm and even during substorms: a rapid reduction of the electron flux is noted throughout the outer electron radiation belt at all energies above about 0.5 MeV on timescales of a few hours. The electron spectrograms measured by the EPT between 2013 and 2019 show that after each geomagnetic storm, dropout events are followed by a flux enhancement starting first at low L values, and reaching the slot or even the inner belt for the strongest storms. We determine the link between Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) and the minimum value of the L-shell where the dropouts deplete the outer belt, as well as the nonlinear relation between Dst and the minimum L-shell where the flux penetrates in the slot region or even the inner belt during the storms. Dropouts appear at all energies measured by EPT and penetrate down to $\textit{L}$~3.5 for the strongest events. Dropouts are observed at Low Earth Orbit each time Dst has an inverted peak < –40 nT. Flux enhancements appear at lower L only for big storm events with Dst < –50 nT. They penetrate down to an impenetrable barrier with a minimum L-shell related to Dst and to the energy. For E > 1 MeV, this limit is also linked to the plasmapause position.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geomagnetic Storm Effects on Ionospheric Irregularities: Insights from SuperDARN, Madrigal GPS TEC, and ISR Data [Slides]

Geomagnetic disturbances trigger an influx of electrons from the magnetosphere, leading to an increase electron density (even in lower altitudes), amplified ionospheric currents, and subsequently, increased conductance. A surge in the AE index, indicating heightened auroral currents, correlates with a rise in precipitated charged particles, including electrons, into the polar ionosphere. This correlation is detectable through increased parameter values measured by SuperDARN. The downward flow of electron density towards lower altitudes, as observed in PFISR data, potentially obstructs the transmission frequency from radar stations passing through the PFISR location (just like we saw in the KOD station). During the geomagnetic storm, there is increased backscatter power (increased amount of ionospheric irregularities), and the plasma flow draws closer to the radar, suggesting a possible southward shift in the auroral oval as a result of the heightened auroral activity. Increased geomagnetic activity correlates with an elevation in average TEC and induces the occurrence of SED (Storm Enhanced Density).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The High Latitude Ionospheric Response to the Major May 2024 Geomagnetic Storm: A Synoptic View

Abstract The high latitude ionospheric evolution of the May 10‐11, 2024, geomagnetic storm is investigated in terms of Total Electron Content and contextualized with Incoherent Scatter Radar and ionosonde observations. Substantial plasma lifting is observed within the initial Storm Enhanced Density plume with ionospheric peak heights increasing by 150–300 km, reaching levels of up to 630 km. Scintillation is observed within the cusp during the initial expansion phase of the storm, spreading across the auroral oval thereafter. Patch transport into the polar cap produces broad regions of scintillation that are rapidly cleared from the region after a strong Interplanetary Magnetic Field reversal at 2230UT. Strong heating and composition changes result in the complete absence of the F2‐layer on the eleventh, suffocating high latitude convection from dense plasma necessary for Tongue of Ionization and patch formation, ultimately resulting in a suppression of polar cap scintillation on the eleventh.

Themens, David R.↗
DOE OSTI2019

On the Relative Strength of Electric and Magnetic ULF Wave Radial Diffusion During the March 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

In this paper, we study electron radial diffusion coefficients derived from Pc4-Pc5 ultralow frequency (ULF) wave power during the intense geomagnetic storm on 17–18 March 2015. During this storm the population of highly relativistic electrons was depleted within 2 hr of the storm commencement. This radial diffusion, depending upon the availability of source populations, can cause outward radial diffusion of particles and their loss to the magnetosheath, or inward transport and acceleration. Analysis of electromagnetic field measurements from Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES), Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) satellite, and ground-based magnetometers shows that the main phase storm-specific radial diffusion coefficients do not correspond to statistical estimates. Specifically, during the main phase, the electric diffusion ($D^{E}_{LL}$) is reduced, and the magnetic diffusion ($D^{B}_{LL}$) is increased, compared to empirical models based on Kp . Contrary to prior results, the main phase magnetic radial diffusion cannot be neglected. The largest discrepancies, and periods of dominance of $D^{B}_{LL}$ over $D^{E}_{LL}$, occur during intervals of strongly southward IMF. However, during storm recovery, both magnetic and electric diffusion rates are consistent with empirical estimates. Here, we further verify observationally, for the first time, an energy coherence for both $D^{B}_{LL}$ and $D^{E}_{LL}$ where diffusion coefficients do not depend on energy. We show that, at least for this storm, properly characterizing main phase radial diffusion, potentially associated with enhanced ULF wave magnetopause shadowing losses, cannot be done with standard empirical models. Modifications, associated especially with southward IMF, which enhance the effects of $D^{B}_{LL}$ and introduce larger main phase outward transport losses, are needed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Impact of the 8–10 March 2012 Geomagnetic Storm on Inner Zone Protons as Measured by Van Allen Probes

The Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope (REPT) instrument on the Van Allen Probes observed a double-peaked inner zone proton population throughout the 7 year lifetime of the mission. M. Hudson et al. (2023) showed that a strong SEP event accompanied by a CME-shock in early March 2012 provided the Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) source for the higher L trapped proton population, which then diffused radially inward to be observed by REPT at L = 2. The study followed trajectories of SEP protons launched isotropically from a sphere at 7 Re for 2.5 hr in fields calculated by the LFM-RCM global MHD model, which includes electric fields needed to model the transport and trapping of the protons by the shock, and then a radial diffusion simulation was run for 2 years using the result from the test-particle simulation as the initial condition. The simulation result was compared with REPT measurement in November 2013 and showed reasonable agreement. However, the simulation overestimated the Phase Space Density by a factor of four due to lack of field line curvature scattering during the storm in the model. In this study, a test-particle simulation is performed for 2 days following the injection and trapping of protons in March 2012 using TS05 fields to simulate the field line curvature scattering of the trapped SEP due to the buildup of the ring current during the geomagnetic storm. The resulting sample distribution was then weighted using the flux at the end of the two-hour MHD-test particle simulation. A radial diffusion simulation is then run using the initial profile that included the loss effect, with improved comparison with REPT measurements after 2 years.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Comparison of electron loss models in the inner magnetosphere during the 2013 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm

Electrons with energies in the keV range play an important role in the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere. Therefore, accurately modeling electron fluxes in this region is of great interest. However, these calculations constitute a challenging task since the lifetimes of electrons that are available have limitations. In this study, we simulate electron fluxes in the energy range of 20 eV-100 keV to assess how well different electron loss models can account for the observed electron fluxes during the GEM Challenge Event of the 2013 St. Patrick's Day storm. Three models (Case 1, Case 2, and Case 3) of electron lifetimes due to wave-induced pitch angle scattering are used to compute the fluxes, which are compared with measurements from the Van Allen Probes. The three models consider electron losses due to interactions with whistler mode hiss waves inside the plasmasphere and with whistler mode chorus waves outside the plasmasphere. The Case 1 (historical) model produces excessive loss at low L shells before and after the storm, suggesting that it overestimates losses due to hiss during quiet times. During the storm main phase and early recovery all three models show good agreement with the observations, indicating that losses due to chorus during disturbed times are in general well accounted for by the models. Furthermore, the more recent Case 2 and Case 3 models show overall better agreement with the observed fluxes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact assessment of geomagnetic induced current neutral blocking devices with power electronics sources on distance relay for 230 kV transmission lines

Electrical grids increased the integration of power electronics sources onto transmission lines. In addition, recent reports show a significant rise in geomagnetic storms occurring in 2024. These geomagnetic storms can affect transmission lines by inducing electrical currents within them, potentially causing power outages due to overloaded power transformers. Geomagnetic induced current neutral blocking devices (GIC-NBDs) are capacitors on the ground of wye power transformers, to avoid damage caused by geomagnetic storms. The integration of distance relays and transmission lines with power electronics sources and GIC-NBDs needs to be studied to observe if GIC-NBDs and power electronics sources could adversely affect operation of the electrical grid. In this analysis, the effect of 2 MW power electronics sources and GIC-NBDs on distance relays is assessed for different 230 kV transmission line lengths in radial and nonradial power systems. The simulations measured the apparent impedances, with different electrical faults. Results for a typical 2,650 μF GIC-NBD application were presented on impedance plots, and the distance relay model operations were assessed. In conclusion, the tests for radial and nonradial power systems showed the behavior of the distance elements and source impedance ratios, assessing the effect of power electronics sources and GIC-NBDs on 230 kV transmission lines.

Distance relays↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global Simulation of Electron Cyclotron Harmonic Wave Instability in a Storm-Time Magnetosphere

Electron cyclotron harmonic (ECH) waves are electrostatic emissions between the ECHs and play a dominant role for precipitating energetic electrons in the magnetotail. Statistically, the ECH wave intensity is stronger at nightside and dawnside than at dayside and duskside. In this study, we, for the first time, simulate the global ECH wave evolution during a geomagnetic storm event using Ring current Atmosphere interactions Model with Self-Consistent Magnetic field (RAM-SCB) combined with a linear growth rate solver.We find that the simulation results are generally consistent with the statistical and real-time observations. The ECH wave instability is much stronger at nightside and dawnside, compared to the instability at dayside and duskside. Before a geomagnetic storm (quiet time), the unstable regions of the ECH waves lie beyond $5R_E$ with a weak instability level. During the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, the unstable regions can extend to a lower altitude $(3R_E)$ with a strong instability level. Finally, during the recovery phase, the unstable regions return to $5$ ~ $6R_E$. We also find that the inner boundary of unstable ECH wave regions is coincident with the plasmapause location during the whole geomagnetic storm event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Signatures of substorm related overshielding electric field at equatorial latitudes under steady southward IMF Bz during main phase of magnetic storm

During the geomagnetic storm periods, the convection electric field penetrates promptly to equatorial latitudes, causing an eastward electric field in the dayside ionosphere. Occasionally, the polarity of the dayside ionospheric electric field is inverted when the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) turns northward. Here, in this work, interesting observations of the strong westward electric field in the day side equatorial latitudes are presented, as evidenced by strong Counter Electrojet (CEJ) at Indian and Japanese sectors under the steady southward IMF Bz. The westward electric field perturbations are quite large with CEJ amplitude of ~-120 nT over the Indian sector (14–15 December 2006) and ~-220 nT for Japanese sector (7–8 November 2004). The plausible mechanisms for the observed overshielding electric fields under steady southward IMF Bz have been investigated in light of the possible role of substorm activity. The clear signatures of substorm were observed at geosynchronous particle flux measurements from LANL (Los Alamos National Laboratory) satellite and associated with sudden decrease in AL index. The observed variations of asymmetric ring current shows the enhancement of Partial Ring Current (PRC) at the dusk sector further supporting the substorm onset during that period which will probably enhance the overshielding due to increased Region 2 Field-Aligned Currents (R2 FACs). Finally, the observations of such significantly large amplitudes of CEJ associated with the substorm related overshielding events are sparse and the results bring out the important role of substorm onset and the development of PRC in accordance with the R2 FACs during intense magnetic storms which alter the day time equatorial electric field perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations and Simulations of Dropout Events and Flux Decays in October 2013: Comparing MEO Equatorial With LEO Polar Orbit

We compare ESA PROBA-V observations of electron flux at LEO with those from the NASA Van Allen Probes mostly at MEO for October 2013. Dropouts are visible at all energy during four storms from both satellites. Equatorially trapped electron fluxes are higher than at LEO by 10 2 (<1 MeV) to 10 5 (>2.5 MeV). We observe a quite isotropic structure of the outer belt during quiet times, contrary to the inner belt, and pitch angle dependence of high energy injection. We find a very good overlap of the outer belt at MEO and LEO at ~0.5 MeV. We use test-particle simulations of the energetic electrons trapped in the terrestrial magnetic field to study the outer radiation belt electron flux changes during geomagnetic storms. We show that the Dst (Disturbance storm time) effect during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm results in a betatron mechanism causing outward radial drift and a deceleration of the electrons. This outward drift motion is energy independent, pitch angle-dependent, and represents a significant distance (~1 L-shell at L = 5 for moderate storms). At fixed L-shell, this causes a decay of the LEO precipitating flux (adiabatic outward motion), followed by a return to the normal state (adiabatic inward motion) during main and recovery phases. Dst effect, associated with magnetopause shadowing and radial diffusion can explain the main characteristics of outer radiation belt electron dropouts in October 2013. We also use Fokker-Planck simulations with event-driven diffusion coefficients at high temporal resolution, to distinguish instantaneous loss from the gradual scattering that depopulates the slot region and the outer belt after storms. Simulations reproduce the slot formation and the gradual loss in the outer belt. The typical energy dependence of these losses leads to the absence of scattering for relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons in the outer belt, oppositely to dropouts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical and temporal characteristics of sawtooth events

Magnetospheric sawtooth events are characterized by periodic particle injections and magnetic dipolarizations spread quasi-simultaneously across a wide range of magnetic local times. We present a comprehensive statistical study of magnetospheric sawtooth events (STEs) during solar cycle 24 (2008–2016), extending previous catalogs and enabling solar cycle comparisons. Our results confirm that STEs predominantly occur during the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle, and are strongly associated with geomagnetic storms. Superposed epoch analysis reveals near-simultaneous particle injections across all magnetic local time sectors, but magnetic field dipolarization confined to the midnight region. These results support a scenario in which nightside tail reconnection and enhanced convection are the primary drivers of sawtooth oscillations. The localization of magnetic dipolarizations during STEs challenges global instability interpretations and suggests that STEs represent a stormtime substorm mode triggered under specific solar wind and magnetotail conditions. Superposed epoch analyses also show enhanced oxygen content in the magnetosphere during sawtooth events, but do not show a significant difference from geomagnetic storms that do not exhibit periodic behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the Effect of Magnetic Field Line Curvature Scattering on the Loss of Ring Current Ions

During geomagnetic storms, the ring current ions sometimes exhibit rapid loss as suggested by the fast recovery of the Dst index on a time scale of a few hours. Here, the effects of magnetic field line curvature (FLC) scattering on the loss of ring current ions, which have not been well quantified, are studied here by test particle simulations under the T89c magnetic field model. Our simulation results show that the prediction of ion loss based on a single–value cutoff of the κ parameter or maximum of δμ/μ of a single FLC scattering is not accurate. Instead, the e–folding lifetime (τ) for the loss of ring current ions due to cumulative FLC scattering has been calculated for different initial ion energies, equatorial pitch angles, and L shells under different geomagnetic conditions. The results show that in general the FLC scattering loss is faster for ions of higher energy, higher mass, smaller pitch angle, higher L, and at high Kp level. Specifically, we find that at Kp = 6 the lifetime can be <10 h at L > 5 for 100 s keV protons and at L > 4 for 100 s keV O + , which demonstrates that FLC scattering can be an important mechanism for the observed fast loss (τ < 10 h) of ring current ions during geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, we formulate an empirical formula for τ as a function of ion energy, pitch angle, position, species, and Kp. The empirical formula can be directly included in ring current models to account for the FLC scattering effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗