Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “GISS Earth System Model, ModelE2.1”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

9 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Assessing Acetone for the GISS ModelE2.1 Earth System Model

Acetone is an abundant volatile organic compound (VOC) in the atmosphere, with important influences on ozone and oxidation capacity. Direct sources include chemical production from other VOCs and anthropogenic emissions, terrestrial vegetation, biomass-burning emissions, and ocean production. Sinks include chemical loss, deposition onto the land surface, and ocean uptake. Acetone also has a lifetime that is long enough to allow transport and reactions with other compounds remote from its sources. The NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth system model ModelE2.1 simulates a variety of Earth system interactions. Previously, acetone had a very simplistic representation in the ModelE chemical scheme. This study assesses a more sophisticated acetone scheme in which acetone is a full 3-dimensional tracer with explicit sources, sinks, and atmospheric transport. We first evaluate the new global acetone budget in the context of past literature. Estimated source and sink fluxes fall within the range of previous models, although total atmospheric burden and lifetime are at the lower end of the published literature. Acetone's new representation in ModelE2.1 also results in more realistic spatial and vertical distributions, which we compare against previous models and field observations. The seasonality of acetone-related processes was also studied in conjunction with field measurements, and these comparisons show promising agreement but also shortcomings at high-emission urban locations, where the model's resolution is too coarse to capture the true behavior. Finally, we conduct a variety of sensitivity studies that explore the influence of key parameters on the acetone budget and its global distribution. An impactful finding is that the production of acetone from precursor hydrocarbon oxidation has strong leverage on the overall chemical source, indicating the importance of accurate molar yields. Overall, our implementation is one that corroborates with previous studies and marks a significant improvement in the development of the acetone tracer in GISS ModelE2.1.

Acetone↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

FUTURE LEVELS OF AEROSOLS & RADIATIVE FORCING OVER THE ARCTIC

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) is currently assessing the impacts of Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCF) on Arctic climate and air quality. In support of the assessment, we used the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Sciences (GISS) Earth System Model (modelE2.1), with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea-ice fraction, to simulate SLCF concentrations globally between 1995 and 2015. Two simulations were conducted, using the One-Moment Aerosol (OMA) and the Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state (MATRIX) aerosol modules. OMA is a mass-based scheme in which aerosols are assumed to remain externally mixed and have a prescribed and constant size distribution, while MATRIX is an aerosol microphysics scheme based on the quadrature method of moments, which is able to explicitly simulate the mixing state of aerosols. Anthropogenic emissions from the ECLIPSE v6b emissions database were used, along with emissions from aircrafts and open biomass burning from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), while the natural emissions of sea salt, DMS, isoprene and dust are calculated interactively. The simulated monthly surface concentrations of sulfate (SO4), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OA), and ozone (O3) are compared with observations from a set of Arctic stations, extracted from the EBAS and IMPROVE databases, as well as a few additional locations. Simulated aerosol optical depths (AOD) are also compared with Advanced Very-High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). The study will present the evaluation of the modelE2.1 in simulating SLCF levels over the Arctic using different aerosol schemes, along with observed and simulated trends of SLCFs over the Arctic between 1995 and 2015.

Aersosols↗
NASA NTRS2020

Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks in the NASA GISS ModelE2.1

We present results from the NASA GISS ModelE2.1‐G‐CC Earth System Model with coupled climate‐carbon cycle simulations that were submitted to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle MIP (C4MIP). Atmospheric CO2 concentration and carbon budgets for the land and ocean in the historical simulations were generally consistent with observations. Low simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations during 1850‐1950 were due to excess uptake from prescribed land cover change, which erroneously replaced arid shrublands with higher biomass crops, and assumed high 2004 LAI values in vegetated lands throughout the historical simulation. At the end of the historical period, slightly higher simulated CO2 than observed resulted from the land being an insufficient net carbon sink, despite the net effect of CO2 fertilization and warming‐induced increases to leaf photosynthetic capacity. The global ocean carbon uptake agreed well with the observations with the largest discrepancies in the low latitudes. Future climate projection at 2091‐2100 agreed with CMIP5 models in the northward shift, of temperate deciduous forest climate and expansion across Eurasia along 60 °N latitude, and dramatic regional biome shifts from drying and warming in continental Europe. Carbon feedback parameters were largely similar to the CMIP5 model ensemble. For our model, the variation of land feedback parameters within the uncertainty arises from the fertilization feedback being less sensitive due to lack of increased vegetation growth, and the comparably more negative ocean carbon‐climate feedback is due to the large slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Carbon cycle↗
NASA NTRS2023

Investigating Hydroclimatic Impacts of the 168–158 BCE Volcanic Quartet and Their Relevance to the Nile River Basin and Egyptian History

The Ptolemaic era (305–30 BCE) is an important period of Ancient Egyptian history known for its material and scientific advances, but also intermittent political and social unrest in the form of (sometimes widespread) revolts against the Ptolemaic elites. While the role of environmental pressures has long been overlooked in this period of Egyptian history, ice-core-based volcanic histories have identified the period as experiencing multiple notable eruptions, and a repeated temporal association between explosive volcanism and revolt has recently been noted. Here we analyze the global and regional (Nile River basin) hydroclimatic response to a unique historical sequence of four large and closely timed volcanic eruptions (first a tropical one, followed by three extratropical northern hemispheric events) between 168 and 158 BCE, a particularly troubled period in Ptolemaic history for which we now provide a more detailed hydroclimatic context. The NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2.1 Earth system model simulates a strong radiative response with a radiative forcing (top of atmosphere) of −7.5 W m−2 (following the first eruption) and −2.5 W m−2 (after each of the three remaining eruptions) at a global scale. Associated with this, we observe a global surface cooling of the order of 1.5 ∘C following the first (tropical) eruption, with the following three extratropical eruptions extending the cooling period for more than 15 years. Consequently, this series of eruptions is observed to constrain the northward migration of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon season, and major monsoon zones (African, South Asian, and East Asian) were seen to experience a suppression of rainfall of >1 mm d−1 during the monsoon (JJAS) season averaged for 2 years after each eruption. A substantial suppression of the Indian and North African summer monsoon (over the Nile River headwater region) was seen to strongly affect the modeled river flow in the catchment and discharge at river mouth. River mass flow over the basin was observed to decrease by 29 % and 38 % relative to an unperturbed (non-volcanic) annual mean flow in the first and second year, respectively, after the first (i.e., tropical) eruption. A moderate decrease ranging between 5 % and 18 % was observed after the third and fourth (extratropical) eruptions. These results indicate, in sum, that the first eruption likely produced a strong hydroclimate response, with the following extratropical eruptions prolonging this. These results also support the recently hypothesized association between ice-core-based signals of explosive volcanism and hydroclimatic variability during the Ptolemaic era, including the suppression of the agriculturally critical Nile summer flooding.

hydroclimate impacts↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of INP Parameterizations for Dust Minerals in Climatological Simulations With a Global Model

The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. We utilize an improved sectional dust module in NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2.1, which distinguishes eight different mineral species and accretions between iron oxides and the other minerals. Simulations over a period of 20 years have been carried out with this model, and the mineral fields and other model variables (temperature, relative humidity) are used to calculate the ice nucleating particle (INP) number concentration, applying time-independent and time-dependent INP parameterizations, such as active site parameterization and water activity based immersion freezing model (ABIFM). We study how the dependence of the parameterizations on different model variables affects the mean INP number concentration. The sensitivity of the INP number concentration to fundamental dust properties such as emitted mineral size distributions and mixing state between minerals is also investigated. Results show that the sensitivity of the total INP number concentration to the emitted dust size distribution is rather small, but the sensitivity over the whole size range obscures offsetting differences in the magnitude and the sign of the sensitivity between smaller and larger particles.

INP Parameterizations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ROCKE-3D 2.0: An Updated General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), the generalized 3-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. ROCKE-3D version 2.0 is a descendant of GISS ModelE2.1, the flagship GCM of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) used in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. ROCKE-3D is a continuous effort to expand the capabilities of GISS ModelE to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including different atmospheric planet sizes, gravities, pressures, rotation rates, more diverse chemistries and atmospheric compositions, diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. We present in this release many more supported configurations which can serve as starting points to simulate terrestrial planets of interest. Two different radiation schemes are supported, the GISS radiation, valid for Earth-like planets, and SOCRATES, which is more generalized but requires more CPU resources. In addition, three different atmospheric compositions are supported, three ocean configurations (prescribed, q-flux, and dynamic), and two resolutions: the medium resolution (4 x 5 degrees in latitude x longitude) used in ROCKE-3D 1.0, and the fine resolution, which has double the resolution in the atmosphere and 4 times the resolution in the ocean. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.

ROCKE-3D↗
NASA NTRS2020

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850‐2014) with GISS‐E2.1

Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850‐‐2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2), but warm less during recent decades due to reduced total forcing. This forcing reduction is attributed to an increase in longwave opacity in pre‐industrial simulations, resulting in an atmosphere less sensitive to further increases in opacity that result from rising greenhouse gas concentrations. This demonstrates the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Ea↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional variability of dust single scattering albedo due to mineral composition

Nearly all Earth System Models (ESMs) assume globally homogeneous dust aerosols, neglecting regional variations of the imaginary refractive index (IRI) due to varying mineral composition. This has led to a range of single scattering albedo (SSA) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) estimates, as models assign global properties using dust measurements from different regions. We use model and observational data to assess to what extent regionally varying mineral composition affects visible-band SSA and short-wave DRF of dust. We run global simulations with NASA GISS ModelE2.1, using optical properties for minerals based on laboratory-derived empirical relationships between dust IRI at visible wavelengths and the mineral content of iron oxides. When allowing mineral variations instead of homogeneous dust, we find regional differences in dust SSA up to ~0.06 and consequent variations in DRF up to ~6 and ~5 W/m2, at surface and top-of-atmosphere respectively. We compare model SSA with AERONET inversion data (Version 3.0, Level 2), filtered by aerosol size and optical properties to identify pure dust scenes. To investigate possible contamination by biomass burning aerosols, we use the dataset of Schuster et al. (2016, doi:10.5194/acp-16-1565-2016), who separately calculated the contribution of iron oxides and carbonaceous species to AERONET extinction and absorption optical depths. Our results show that: (1) the range of observed SSA (even without carbonaceous species) is larger than that resulting from homogeneous dust; (2) residual amounts of fine mode black and brown carbon may affect AERONET SSA even in seasons with limited biomass burning; (3) model SSA from our mineral scheme exceeds the AERONET range, possibly due also to an uncertain treatment of goethite. In summary, homogeneous dust cannot explain the variability of observed SSA, so regionally varying optical properties based on mineral content are necessary. Higher accuracy in soil mineralogy maps is needed to better reproduce SSA variations at regional scales. Also, distinct soil maps for hematite and goethite are required, given the high sensitivity of model SSA to their extreme optical properties.

V. Obiso↗
NASA NTRS2020

Historical (1850‐2014) Aerosol Evolution and Role on Climate Forcing Using the GISS Modele2.1 Contribution to CMIP6

The Earth’s climate is rapidly changing. Over the past centuries, aerosols, via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. The multi-century anthropogenic aerosol cooling effect prevented present-day climate from reaching even higher surface air temperatures and subsequent more dramatic climate impacts. Trends in aerosol concentrations and optical depth show that in many polluted regions such as Europe and the United States of America, aerosol precursor emissions decreased back to levels of the 1950s. More recent polluting countries such as China may have reached a turning point in recent years as well, while India still follows an upward trend. Here we study aerosol trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the GISS ModelE2.1 climate model using a fully coupled atmosphere composition onfiguration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based (OMA) aerosol module. Results show that whether global aerosol radiative forcing is already declining depends on the aerosol scheme used. Using the aerosol microphysical scheme, where the aerosol system reacts more strongly to the trend in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, global peak direct aerosol forcing was reached in the 1980’s, whereas the mass-based scheme simulates peak direct aerosol forcing around 2010.

Aerosol forcing↗