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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
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DOE OSTI2021

The security implications of global climate change. Workshop summary

The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled, “The Security Implications of Global Climate Change” on January 5-7, 2021, convened virtually due to the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic. The workshop included participants from scientific/technical, defense, diplomacy, advocacy, and academic communities in the United States as well as from U.S. allies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Representation of Global Climate Change in Performance Assessment Models for Disposal of Radioactive Waste - 17183

Evolving concepts of global climate change that include impacts of anthropogenic greenhouse gases require reassessment of conventional conservative approaches in performance assessment studies that assume cold and wet future glacial climates. Global paleo-climate data for the Quaternary (past 2 million years) show saw-tooth patterns (temperature/proxy temperature data versus time) of glacial and interglacial intervals accompanied by cyclical changes in the atmospheric content of CO{sub 2} (low contents during glacial cycles and higher contents during interglacial cycles). These cycles are correlated with changes in the earth's orbital configurations (Milankovitch cycles) but require nonlinear linkages with additional climate-forcing components to reproduce past glacial and interglacial transitions. The earth is currently in an interglacial period and the timing of the inception of the next glacial period is critically important for forecasting future climate states. Climate modeling studies coupling Milankovitch cycles with variable atmospheric CO{sub 2} content demonstrate conclusively that the earth is very unlikely to return to a glacial state when CO{sub 2} concentrations remain above pre-industrial levels (∼ 280 parts per million; current levels exceed 400 parts per million). A return to pre-industrial concentrations will likely require > 50,000 years and may require hundreds of thousands of years even if current emissions were to drop dramatically. The most likely scenario for the future global climate is persistence of the current interglacial period with variable but progressively increasing temperatures. Performance assessments need to revise site-specific evaluations of future climate assuming global warming within a prolonged interglacial period with increased probability of extreme weather events. Four radioactive waste disposal sites are illustrated that currently incorporate or will incorporate revised current climate concepts in modeling studies for performance assessments. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Salish Sea Response to Global Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Future Nutrient Loads

Given annual occurrences of hypoxia, harmful algal blooms, and evidence of coastal acidification, the potential impacts of climate change on water quality are of increasing concern in the U.S. Pacific Northwest estuaries such as the Salish Sea. While large-scale global climate projections are well documented, our understanding of the nearshore estuarine-scale response is not as well developed. In this study, the future response within the Salish Sea fjord-like environment was examined using the Salish Sea Model driven by downscaled outputs from the NCAR climate model CESM. We simulated a single projection of 95-year change under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results indicate that higher temperatures, lower pH, and decreased dissolved oxygen levels in the upwelled shelf waters in the future would propagate into the Salish Sea. Results point to potential changes in average Salish Sea temperature (≈+1.51°C), dissolved oxygen (≈-0.77 mg/L), and pH (acidification -0.18 units) in the Y2095 relative to historical Y2000. The algal biomass in the Salish Sea could increase by ≈23% with a potential species shift from diatoms towards dinoflagellates. The region of annually recurring hypoxia could increase from <1% today to ≈16% in the future. Finally, the results suggest that the future response in the Salish Sea is less severe relative to the change predicted near the continental shelf boundary. This resilience of the Salish Sea may be attributed to the existence of strong vertical circulation cells that provide mitigation and serve as a physical buffer, thus keeping waters cooler, more oxygenated, and less acidic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km 2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km 2 considering sea level rise alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions between land use, fires, and dust as drivers of global climate change (Final Technical Report)

This award to UC Irvine and Cornell University led to the publication of 18 papers, three of which are highly cited. According to ISI Web of Science, the body of work from this grant has been cited over 476 times by May 2025. Several additional publications remain in review. This grant contributed to several significant science advances, including an improved understanding of the influence of fire aerosols on global photosynthesis (Xu et al., 2021), dust-driven teleconnections between Africa and South America (Li et al., 2021), the role of fire aerosols in triggering phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic (Ardyna et al., 2022), and wildfire responses to heat waves (Li et al., in review). Several other studies are being written up for publication, and will acknowledge funding support. These efforts include an analysis in which the magnitude of tropical fire emissions from land use change is constrained by comparing E3SMv3 simulations with atmospheric observations. This work has revealed that carbon cycle model estimates of land use change may considerably overestimate the global tropical deforestation flux. The project also contributed to several technical advances, including a new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models (Leung et al., 2023), an improved representation of dust and its influence on radiation in E3SM (Feng et al., 2022), an improved representation of the dust parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (Li et al., 2022), and an improved coupling of wildfires with atmospheric chemistry in E3SM v3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble modeling of global lake evaporation under climate change

Global projections of lake evaporation are typically based on simulations using single mechanistic models. However, because of its complex interactions with various lake physical properties, environmental and anthropogenic drivers, lake evaporation is highly variable and sensitive to the choice of model used. In this study, we present a multi-model analysis to investigate differences across global simulations of lake evaporation during the warm-season using three different lake models driven by outputs from four general circulation models (GCM) (i.e. 12 model combinations in total) for historic and future scenarios. Our results suggest substantial differences among lake-climate model simulations of lake evaporation. These differences varied throughout the 20th and 21st century, with model driver data explaining 74% of the variance in future projections of warm- season lake evaporation. Our projections indicate that, by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), global annual lake evaporation rates will increase by 10–27% under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Finally, we highlight the importance of using a multi-model approach for the prediction of future global lake evaporation responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Changes in the Shadow: The Shifting Role of Shaded Leaves in Global Carbon and Water Cycles Under Climate Change

Globally shaded leaves contribute to more than a half of the total increase in gross primary production (GPP; 7.6 Pg C) for 1982–2016. During 1982–2016, the fraction of shaded GPP increases by 1.1% (p < 0.01) in tropical forests and decreases by 1.4% (p < 0.01) and 1.8% (p < 0.01) in evergreen needleleaf and deciduous needleleaf boreal forests, respectively, suggesting an ecological niche of certain canopy structure for ecosystems to achieve maximum GPP. Unlike transpiration from sunlit leaves that has a turning point in the trend in 2003, global transpiration from shaded leaves steadily increased at the rate of 34 km 3 /year (p < 0.0001) during 1982–2016. Our study therefore suggests that shaded leaves have an increasing role in buffering the adverse impact of climate change and extremes. Further studies are still needed to reduce the uncertainties in reported trends arisen from climate forcing data, leaf area index, and land cover and land change products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures

This paper explores potential future implications of climate change on building energy expenditures around the globe. Increasing expenditures result from increased electricity use for cooling, and are offset to varying degrees, depending on the region, by decreased energy consumption for heating. The analysis is conducted using a model of the global buildings sector within the GCAM integrated assessment model. The integrated assessment framework is valuable because it represents socioeconomic and energy system changes that will be important for understanding building energy expenditures in the future. Results indicate that changes in net expenditures are not uniform across the globe. Net expenditures decrease in some regions, such as Canada and Russia, where heating demands currently dominate, and increase the most in areas with less demand for space heating and greater demand for space cooling. We explain these results in terms of the basic drivers that link building energy expenditures to regional climate.

Climate change impacts↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assumptions and advantages of diagnosing climate change at global warming levels

Scientists increasingly assess climate changes at specific levels of global warming rather than at specific times in the future. This has numerous advantages over other methods of diagnosing future climate changes and allows for a more direct connection with various climate mitigation targets like the 1.5° or 2°C Paris agreement goals. A key assumption inherent to global warming levels (GWLs) is that all climate models and all future experiments that cross a given global temperature change threshold can be averaged together – that the response of the climate at a given GWL is largely independent of the emissions scenario or the sensitivity to carbon dioxide in the models comprising the average. This assumption has not been systematically vetted in the literature. Here we mine the entire CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives to determine the extent to which the climate response of several extreme climate indices at various GWLs is sensitive to the future emissions scenario and to the models’ climate sensitivities. We quantify this sensitivity to see whether using GWLs as a control in climate projections is justified. This information will be valuable for establishing the extent to which constraints on climate sensitivity can have tangible benefits for regional climate resiliency planning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981–2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Department of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. In conclusion, this disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs' responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Resolution Meteorology with Climate Change Impacts from Global Climate Model Data Using Generative Machine Learning

As renewable energy generation increases, the impacts of weather and climate on energy generation and demand become critical to the reliability of the energy system. However, these impacts are often overlooked. Global climate models (GCMs) can be used to understand possible changes to our climate, but their coarse resolution makes them difficult to use in energy system modelling. Here we present open-source generative machine learning methods that produce meteorological data at a nominal spatial resolution of 4 km at an hourly frequency based on inputs from 100 km daily-average GCM data. These methods run 40 times faster than traditional downscaling methods and produce data that have high-resolution spatial and temporal attributes similar to historical datasets. We demonstrate that these methods can be used to downscale projected changes in wind, solar and temperature variables across multiple GCMs including projections for more frequent low-wind and high-temperature events in the Eastern United States.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire and power grid nexus in a changing climate

Global wildfire events have had increasingly severe impacts in recent years, particularly in the western USA, driven by extreme fire-weather conditions, fuel accumulation and multiple ignition sources. Wildfires sparked by power lines tend to be larger and more destructive, as they often occur during high winds, which accelerate the spread of fires. Moreover, efforts to contain wildfires frequently result in power outages, causing considerable economic disruption. Here, in this Review, we examine wildfire risks related to power-line-induced ignitions, infrastructure damage, climate-induced environmental impacts, grid operational risks, real-time grid management risks, vegetation management risks, and financial and funding risks in the context of a changing climate and their interdependence with power grid infrastructures. We then explore the resilience of power grids under wildfire threats, looking at risk analysis, prediction and mitigation strategies. The Review also shares practical insights and experiences in the USA to inform researchers, policymakers and industry professionals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

What’s hot about mercury? Examining the influence of climate on mercury levels in Ontario top predator fishes

Highlights: • Fish mercury levels have recently increased in many Ontario watersheds. • Weather, climate drivers, and emissions are contributing to changes in fish mercury. • Changes in climate may be an important driver of Ontario fish mercury levels. • Higher mercury levels in walleye and largemouth bass are related to climate drivers. • Higher precipitation contributed to higher mercury levels in smallmouth bass. Mercury (Hg) levels in Ontario top predator fishes have been increasing in recent decades. These increases may be a result of many additive factors, including global climate change. Only recently has research been conducted on how climate change may impact Hg levels in freshwater fishes at large-scales. We examined the relationship between Hg trends and (1) local weather, (2) large-scale climate drivers, and (3) anthropogenic Hg emissions, in native cool water (walleye and northern pike) and warm water (smallmouth bass and largemouth bass) predatory fishes in Ontario, Canada, for historical (1970–1992) and recent (1993–2014) time periods. For each fish species studied, > 25% of Ontario's secondary watersheds shifted from historically declining to recently increasing fish Hg trends, and ≥ 50% of watersheds experienced increasing trends between 1993 and 2014. Recent fish Hg increased at up to 0.20 µg/g/decade; which were significant (p < 0.05) for walleye, northern pike and smallmouth bass. Multiple linear regressions revealed a complex interplay of local weather, large-scale climate drivers, and anthropogenic Hg emissions influencing fish Hg levels. Recent Hg levels for walleye and largemouth bass increased with changes in global climate drivers, while higher precipitation influenced smallmouth bass Hg levels the most. Walleye Hg levels increased during the positive phases of global climate drivers, reflecting the local influence of local temperatures and precipitation indirectly. Differentiating the effects of climate-related parameters and emissions is increasingly crucial to assess how changing multiple environmental stressors may impact health of wildlife and humans consuming fish.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vegetation-induced asymmetric diurnal land surface temperatures changes across global climate zones

Unprecedented global vegetation greening during past decades is well known to affect annual and seasonal land surface temperatures (LST). However, the impact of observed vegetation cover change on diurnal LST across global climatic zones is not well understood. In this study, using global climatic time-series datasets, we investigated the long-term growing season daytime and nighttime LST changes globally and explored associated dominant contributors including vegetation and climate factors including air temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. Results revealed asymmetric growing season mean daytime and nighttime LST warming (0.16 °C/10a and 0.30 °C/10a, respectively) globally from 2003 to 2020, as a result, the diurnal LST range (DLSTR) declined at 0.14 °C/10a. The sensitivity analysis indicated the LST response to changes in LAI, precipitation, and SSRD mainly concentrated during daytime instead of nighttime, however, which showed comparable sensitivities for air temperature. Combining the sensitivities results and the observed LAI and climate trends, we found rising air temperature contributes to 0.24 ± 0.11 °C/10a global daytime LST warming and 0.16 ± 0.07 °C/10a nighttime LST warming, turns to be the dominant contributor to the LST changes. Increased LAI cooled global daytime LST (–0.068 ± 0.096 °C/10a) while warmed nighttime LST (0.064 ± 0.046 °C/10a); hence LAI dominates declines in DLSTR trends (–0.12 ± 0.08 °C/10a), despite some daynight process variations across climate zones. In Boreal regions, reduced DLSTR was due to nighttime warming from LAI increases. In other climatic zones, daytime cooling, and DLSTR decline, was induced by increased LAI. Biophysically, the pathway from air temperature heats the surface through sensible heat and increased downward longwave radiation during day and night, while the pathway from LAI cools the surface by enhancing energy redistribution into latent heat rather than sensible heat during the daytime. These empirical findings of diverse asymmetric responses could help calibrate and improve biophysical models of diurnal surface temperature feedback in response to vegetation cover changes in different climate zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Long-Term Warming in Alaska Enlarges the Diazotrophic Community in Deep Soils

Tundra ecosystems are typically carbon (C) rich but nitrogen (N) limited. Since biological N 2 fixation is the major source of biologically available N, the soil N 2 -fixing (i.e., diazotrophic) community serves as an essential N supplier to the tundra ecosystem. Recent climate warming has induced deeper permafrost thaw and adversely affected C sequestration, which is modulated by N availability. Therefore, it is crucial to examine the responses of diazotrophic communities to warming across the depths of tundra soils. Herein, we carried out one of the deepest sequencing efforts of nitrogenase gene ( nifH ) to investigate how 5 years of experimental winter warming affects Alaskan soil diazotrophic community composition and abundance spanning both the organic and mineral layers. Although soil depth had a stronger influence on diazotrophic community composition than warming, warming significantly ( P < 0.05) enhanced diazotrophic abundance by 86.3% and aboveground plant biomass by 25.2%. Diazotrophic composition in the middle and lower organic layers, detected by nifH sequencing and a microarray-based tool (GeoChip), was markedly altered, with an increase of α-diversity. Changes in diazotrophic abundance and composition significantly correlated with soil moisture, soil thaw duration, and plant biomass, as shown by structural equation modeling analyses. Therefore, more abundant diazotrophic communities induced by warming may potentially serve as an important mechanism for supplementing biologically available N in this tundra ecosystem. IMPORTANCE With the likelihood that changes in global climate will adversely affect the soil C reservoir in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, an understanding of the potential role of diazotrophic communities in enhancing biological N 2 fixation, which constrains both plant production and microbial decomposition in tundra soils, is important in elucidating the responses of soil microbial communities to global climate change. A recent study showed that the composition of the diazotrophic community in a tundra soil exhibited no change under a short-term (1.5-year) winter warming experiment. However, it remains crucial to examine whether the lack of diazotrophic community responses to warming is persistent over a longer time period as a possibly important mechanism in stabilizing tundra soil C. Through a detailed characterization of the effects of winter warming on diazotrophic communities, we showed that a long-term (5-year) winter warming substantially enhanced diazotrophic abundance and altered community composition, though soil depth had a stronger influence on diazotrophic community composition than warming. These changes were best explained by changes in soil moisture, soil thaw duration, and plant biomass. These results provide crucial insights into the potential factors that may impact future C and N availability in tundra regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability

Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of biomass for bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We review the literature on bioenergy, including the modelling of bioenergy in integrated assessment models (IAMs) and bottom-up modelling and non-modelling studies on the implications of bioenergy use. We summarise the limitations of existing modelling studies and what is known about the potential co-benefits and adverse side-effects of bioenergy systems. We find that the implications of bioenergy supply on mitigation and other sustainability criteria are context dependent and influenced by feedstock, management regime, climatic region, scale of deployment and the counterfactual land use and energy system. However, due to limitations of the existing models, and uncertainty over the future context with respect to the many variables that influence availability of biomass and land resources, it is not possible to precisely quantify the sustainability implications for different scales of bioenergy implementation. Given these uncertainties, the dependence on large-scale deployment of bioenergy in mitigation scenarios carries risks. The deployment of bioenergy technologies and the evolution of biomass supply chains at a scale that achieves significant mitigation and carbon sequestration requires integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms. As a result, bioenergy, and the use of land to produce biomass, is an essential part of many climate mitigation strategies but there are limits to its use due to trade-offs with sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗