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Results for “GLOBAL WARMING”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Analysis and Global Warming Potential of a Novel Offshore Macroalgae Biorefinery

The success of a large scale macroalgae-based biorefinery is dependent on the demonstration of favorable system economics and environmental sustainability. This study uses detailed process modeling to quantify the mass and energy flows through the various unit operations required for a novel free-floating macroalgae biorefinery concept. The modular process model served as the foundation for the techno-economic and global warming potential analyses used to quantify the sustainability of the proposed concept. This work includes detailed techno-economic results for a complete macroalgae cultivation and conversion system with multiple hatchery configurations and several emerging technologies. System optimization was achieved through the evaluation of various technology options for each unit operation. Technologies considered include traditional twine and textile substrate hatchery configurations, drone assisted seeding and biomass transport, mechanized line seeding and harvesting, adhesive spore mixtures that simplify seeding operations and improve hatchery energetics, and hydrothermal liquefaction to produce upgradable biocrude. Outputs from the system include renewable diesel (R100), naphtha, biochar, nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, and aqueous/solid waste streams. Three different system pathways were explored, yielding a biomass production cost ranging from $210 to $565 per dry metric ton and a minimum fuel selling price from $1.35 to $2.91 per liter of gasoline equivalent. Stochastic manipulation of the process model and sensitivity analyses support these results. The global warming potential analysis shows net greenhouse gas emissions ranging from 14 to 29 gCO2-eq MJ-1, supported by stochastic and sensitivity analyses. The recommendations from this work highlight critical areas for research and development investment such that a sustainable macroalgae cultivation and conversion system can be realized.

NOMAD seaweed cultivation, techno-economic analysi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability of Copper Inverse Opal Surfaces for Extreme-Heat-Flux Micro-Coolers in Low-Global-Warming-Potential Refrigerant R-1233zd Pool Boiling Experiments

This presentation provides a brief snapshot of the InterPACK paper InterPACK2023-113781. The paper explores copper inverse opal (CIO) surface reliability in pool boiling experiments in water and a new, low-global-warming-potential (GWP = 1) hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) refrigerant R-1233zd. The CIO-based structure is intended to develop enhanced two-phase heat transfer surfaces for extreme-heat-flux (approximately 1 kW/cm2) micro-coolers. In this study, a limited number of pool boiling experiments were performed using water and HFO-1233zd fluid, and the reliability of the CIO-based surfaces was evaluated. Critical heat flux (CHF) values in HFO-1233zd at 40 Degrees Celsius to 45 Degrees Celsius saturation temperatures and the corresponding saturation pressures were also measured. The CHF values with the refrigerant are significantly lower compared to those with water, but the refrigerant allows for a wider usable temperature range in the end application of the micro-coolers and is not limited to data centers with controlled ambient conditions. Reliability experiments with CIO surface samples - involving pool boiling with water on the CIO surfaces for approximately 48 hours and with HFO-1233zd for 144 hours - showed no structural degradation of the enhanced surface or any significant performance drop in heat transfer coefficients. The CIO surface samples in water were oxidized, most likely due to the presence of air in water and in the experimental vessel.

critical heat flux↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impaired photosynthesis and increased leaf construction costs may induce floral stress during episodes of global warming over macroevolutionary timescales

Global warming events have coincided with turnover of plant species at intervals in Earth history. As mean global temperatures rise, the number, frequency and duration of heat-waves will increase. Ginkgo biloba was grown under controlled climatic conditions at two different day/night temperature regimes (25/20 °C and 35/30 °C) to investigate the impact of heat stress. Photosynthetic CO 2 -uptake and electron transport were reduced at the higher temperature, while rates of respiration were greater; suggesting that the carbon balance of the leaves was adversely affected. Stomatal conductance and the potential for evaporative cooling of the leaves was reduced at the higher temperature. Furthermore, the capacity of the leaves to dissipate excess energy was also reduced at 35/30 °C, indicating that photo-protective mechanisms were no longer functioning effectively. Leaf economics were adversely affected by heat stress, exhibiting an increase in leaf mass per area and leaf construction costs. This may be consistent with the selective pressures experienced by fossil Ginkgoales during intervals of global warming such as the Triassic - Jurassic boundary or Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. The physiological and morphological responses of the $G$. biloba leaves were closely interrelated; these relationships may be used to infer the leaf economics and photosynthetic/stress physiology of fossil plants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels

Abstract The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization of Residential Air Source Heat Pump using Low–Global Warming Potential Refrigerants

We report low–global warming potential refrigerants can significantly reduce the direct emissions of CO 2 originating from HVAC systems. However, high-efficiency systems are needed to reduce indirect CO 2 emissions. In this study, an R410A residential 5-Ton heat pump was optimized using R32, R454A, R454B, R454C, and R455A. Among these options, R455A and R454C have the lowest global warming potential but have lower volumetric capacity and high glide. Optimization results using 5 mm tube heat exchangers showed 12.4% to 19.1% efficiency improvements and 13% to 33% reduction in CO 2 emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

On the Linearity of Local and Regional Temperature Changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of Global Warming

Because of the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the target 1.5° and 2°C levels above preindustrial conditions. It is challenging to quantify changes across a small increment of global warming, so a pattern-scaling approach may be considered. Here we investigate the validity of such an approach by comprehensively examining how well local temperatures and warming trends in a 1.5°C world predict local temperatures at global warming of 2°C. Ensembles of transient coupled climate simulations from multiple models under different scenarios were compared and individual model responses were analyzed. For many places, the multimodel forced response of seasonal-average temperatures is approximately linear with global warming between 1.5° and 2°C. Yet, individual model results vary and large contributions from nonlinear changes in unforced variability or the forced response cannot be ruled out. In some regions, such as East Asia, models simulate substantially greater warming than is expected from linear scaling. Examining East Asia during boreal summer, we find that increased warming in the simulated 2°C world relative to scaling up from 1.5°C is related to reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Our results indicate that, where forcings other than those due to greenhouse gas emissions change, the warming experienced in a 1.5°C world is a poor predictor for local climate at 2°C of global warming. In addition to the analysis of the linearity in the forced climate change signal, we find that natural variability remains a substantial contribution to uncertainty at these low-warming targets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

The Paris Agreement long‐term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub‐selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time‐lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e457. doi: 10.1002/wcc.457 This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application

James, Rachel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity

The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)—key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO 2 forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. The results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Does Regional Hydroclimate Change Scale Linearly With Global Warming?

Many aspects of climate change scale linearly with global warming. However, nonlinear changes are possible, especially in the context of hydroclimate, and under emissions scenarios with stabilized global temperature, as aspired to by current climate targets. In CMIP5 and 6, a progressively larger land area shows nonlinear changes as a function of global warming when considering precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture, with the latter showing nonlinearity over ~50% of global land. Here, using ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model 1, in which individual forcing factors are held constant, we illustrate how nonadditive responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and industrial and fire-related aerosols can yield complex soil moisture changes in certain regions. This complexity contributes to uncertainty in regional soil moisture projections and suggests that the timing of, as well as model response uncertainty to, future aerosol reductions will have significant impacts on regional hydroclimate change as global temperatures stabilize.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long‐term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest

Abstract Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five‐year‐long, field‐based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open‐top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species ( Diphascon pingue , Adropion scoticum , and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long‐term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Response of the Indian Summer Monsoon to Global Warming, Solar Geoengineering and its Termination

The response of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) to global warming, solar geoengineering and its termination is examined using the multi-model mean of eight global climate model simulations from G2 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. Under the global warming scenario, land-ocean temperature contrasts and low-level monsoon circulation progressively strengthen accompanied by enhanced precipitation over the Indian subcontinent. Notably, in the solar geoengineered scenario, marginal surface cooling is projected over the majority of the ISM region, and there is strengthening of both upper and lower level circulation. Upon the termination of the geoengineering, the climatic conditions temperature, precipitation, and winds — would abruptly change to what it would have been under the global warming scenario, and such abrupt change may cause devastating consequences.

Bhowmick, Mansi↗
DOE OSTI2019

Precipitation characteristic changes due to global warming in a high‐resolution (16 km) ECMWF simulation

Changes in precipitation amount, intensity and frequency in response to global warming are examined using global high‐resolution (16 km) climate model simulations based on the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) conducted under Project Athena. Our study shows the increases of zonal‐mean total precipitation in all latitudes except the northern subtropics (15°–30°N) and southern subtropics‐to‐midlatitudes (30°–40°S). The probability distribution function (PDF) changes in different latitudes suggest a higher occurrence of light precipitation (LP; ≤1 mm/day) and heavy precipitation (HP; ≥30 mm/day) at the expense of moderate precipitation reduction (MP; 1–30 mm/day) from Tropics to midlatitudes, but an increase in all categories of precipitation in polar regions. On the other hand, the PDF change with global warming in different precipitation climatological zones presents another image. For all regions and seasons examined, there is an HP increase at the cost of MP, but LP varies. The reduced MP in richer precipitation zones resides in the PDF peak intensities, which linearly increase with the precipitation climatology zones. In particular in the Tropics (20°S to 20°N), the precipitation PDF has a flatter distribution (i.e. HP and LP increases with MP reduction) except for the Sahara Desert. In the primary precipitation zones in the subtropics (20°–40°) of both hemispheres, precipitation over land switches toward higher intensity (HP increases, but MP and LP decrease) in both winter and summer, while precipitation over ocean in both seasons shows a flattening trend in the intensity distribution. For the major precipitation zones of the mid‐to‐high latitude belt (40°–70°), PDF of precipitation tends to be flatter over ocean in summer, but switches toward higher intensities over land in both summer and winter, as well as over ocean in winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in surface equivalent potential temperature: A more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes

Significance The Earth has warmed by 1.2 ± 0.1 °C since the preindustrial era. The most common metric to measure the ongoing global warming is surface air temperature since it has long and reliable observational records. However, surface air temperature alone does not fully describe the nature of global warming and its impact on climate and weather extremes. Here we show that surface equivalent potential temperature, which combines the surface air temperature and humidity, is a more comprehensive metric not only for the global warming but also for its impact on climate and weather extremes including tropical deep convection and extreme heat waves. We recommend that it should be used more widely in future climate change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗