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At least 19 records

Systematically tracking the hourly progression of large wildfires using GOES satellite observations

Abstract. In the western United States, prolonged drought, a warming climate, and historical fuel buildup have contributed to larger and more intense wildfires as well as to longer fire seasons. As these costly wildfires become more common, new tools and methods are essential for improving our understanding of the evolution of fires and how extreme weather conditions, including heat waves, windstorms, droughts, and varying levels of active-fire suppression, influence fire spread. Here, we develop the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)-Observed Fire Event Representation (GOFER) algorithm to derive the hourly fire progression of large wildfires and create a product of hourly fire perimeters, active-fire lines, and fire spread rates. Using GOES-East and GOES-West geostationary satellite detections of active fires, we test the GOFER algorithm on 28 large wildfires in California from 2019 to 2021. The GOFER algorithm includes parameter optimizations for defining the burned-to-unburned boundary and correcting for the parallax effect from elevated terrain. We evaluate GOFER perimeters using 12 h data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-derived Fire Event Data Suite (FEDS) and final fire perimeters from the California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). Although the GOES imagery used to derive GOFER has a coarser resolution (2 km at the Equator), the final fire perimeters from GOFER correspond reasonably well to those obtained from FRAP, with a mean Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.77, in comparison to 0.83 between FEDS and FRAP; the IoU indicates the area of overlap over the area of the union relative to the reference perimeters, in which 0 is no agreement and 1 is perfect agreement. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-Earth-orbit imagery, where perimeters are available at intervals of 12 h or longer or at ad hoc intervals from aircraft overflights. This is particularly relevant when a fire spreads rapidly, such as at maximum hourly spread rates of over 5 km h−1. Our GOFER algorithm for deriving the hourly fire progression using GOES can be applied to large wildfires across North and South America and reveals considerable variability in the rates of fire spread on diurnal timescales. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327264, Liu et al., 2023).

Geology↗

Parallax-corrected VISST-derived pixel-level products from satellite GOES-16

The NASA Langley group led by William Smith produced GOES-16 satellite cloud retrievals over an approximate 10 by 10 degree region over the CACTI field campaign location. These retrievals are described here: https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/vaps/visst and are available for download here . They use algorithms historically called VISST that are now referred to as SatCORPS. More information can be found in Trepte et al. (2019), Minnis et al. (2021), and Yost et al. (2021). If using this dataset, please cite these references, the CACTI VISST dataset DOI found at the download link above, and this dataset’s DOI. The CACTI VISST pixel-level retrievals are on a 2 km spatial grid and available every 15 minutes (every 10 minutes late in the campaign), producing 21,765 files for the entire field campaign between October 2018 and April 2019. They are not corrected for parallax error, which is an offset in the actual geographical location of a cloud above the surface due to the satellite viewing the cloud partly from the side off nadir. This dataset applies a correction for parallax using the location relative to the satellite and the retrieved cloud top height above the surface, which allows the dataset to be geo-located with surface-based observations. The parallax correction for each location depends on the longitude, latitude and cloud top height above ground level (AGL) for that longitude and latitude in the original VISST files. The cloud top height AGL requires first computing the surface elevation at each VISST grid point. Data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Map Version 3 at 30-m resolution is projected onto the VISST grid using conservative coarsening (conserving surface elevation) in the xESMF Python package. The surface elevation is then subtracted from the VISST-retrieved cloud top height above mean sea level. These cloud top heights AGL are then combined with longitude and latitude to estimate the latitude and longitude corrections. Due to variability in cloud top height, the parallax shifts produce an irregular grid of values since higher cloud tops are shifted further than lower cloud tops. A ball tree-based neighbor search with Haversine distance is performed using the Python-based scikit-learn library to find the nearest VISST grid point to each parallax correction-shifted point. The data value of the shifted point is then assigned to that VISST grid point. In this manner, the irregular geographical shifts to correct for parallax are projected back to the rectilinear VISST grid. Because relatively higher clouds should obscure lower clouds, the variable values for the highest cloud top are preferentially chosen if two or more values are assigned to a grid point. The parallax correction should be viewed as an improved but still imperfect estimation of the cloud top locations, largely because the cloud top height is an imperfect retrieval. Please see the attached README document for further information. Users are encouraged to contact the authors with any additional questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summertime Continental Shallow Cumulus Cloud Detection Using GOES-16 Satellite and Ground-Based Stereo Cameras at the DOE ARM Southern Great Plains Site

Summertime continental shallow cumulus clouds (ShCu) are detected using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16 reflectance data, with cross-validation by observations from ground-based stereo cameras at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. A ShCu cloudy pixel is identified when the GOES reflectance exceeds the clear-sky surface reflectance by a reflectance detection threshold of ShCu, ΔR. We firstly construct diurnally varying clear-sky surface reflectance maps and then estimate the ΔR. A GOES simulator is designed, projecting the clouds reconstructed by stereo cameras towards the surface along the satellite’s slanted viewing direction. The dynamic ShCu detection threshold ΔR is determined by making the GOES cloud fraction (CF) equal to the CF from the GOES simulator. Although there are temporal variabilities in ΔR, cloud fractions and cloud size distributions can be well reproduced using a constant ΔR value of 0.045. The method presented in this study enables daytime ShCu detection, which is usually falsely reported as clear sky in the GOES-16 cloud mask data product. Using this method, a new ShCu dataset can be generated to bridge the observational gap in detecting ShCu, which may transition into deep precipitating clouds, and to facilitate further studies on ShCu development over heterogenous land surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summertime Continental Shallow Cumulus Cloud Detection Using GOES‐16 Satellite and Ground‐Based Ceilometer at North Alabama

Abstract Accurate simulations of boundary layer cloud processes remain challenging in Earth system modeling. Observations are essential to evaluate and improve models of such processes. This study introduces a comprehensive validation framework for a satellite‐based detection algorithm of continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) clouds during the daytime, which was initially developed using ground‐based observations of stereo cameras at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site (J. Tian et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13122309 , 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097070 ). To validate this algorithm, the framework employs ground‐based ceilometer measurements from North Alabama (NA) where ShCu populations are prevalent. This study first generates clear‐sky surface reflectance maps at NA and identifies ShCu pixels with a detection threshold using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) reflectance data. The obtained cloud fractions (CFs) are then compared against CFs from a ground‐based ceilometer, considering factors such as observed area differences, satellite parallax issue, and systematic biases. We found that with a detection threshold (∆R) of 0.05, the ShCu detection algorithm is effective for NA, enabling the reproduction of hourly ShCu CFs using GOES. Our framework is straightforward and easily repeatable to evaluate the effectiveness of a ∆R threshold for detecting ShCu clouds in various geographic regions where ceilometers are deployed. This satellite detection of ShCu provides a crucial regional context for ground‐based measurements, facilitating the tracking of convection initiation and its coupling with land surface conditions. Integrating localized ground‐based and regional satellite data will enhance our ability to conduct thorough studies of cloud morphology and land‐atmosphere interactions in North Alabama.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a serially complete collection of meteorological and solar irradiance data sets for the United States and a growing list of international locations for 1998-2023. The NSRDB is updated annually and provides foundational information to support U.S. Department of Energy programs, research, industry and the general public. The NSRDB provides time-series data at 30-minute resolution of resource averaged over surface cells of 0.038 degrees in both latitude and longitude, or nominally 4 km in size. Additionally time series data at 5 minutes for the US and 10 minutes for North, Central and South America at 2 km resolution are produced from the next generation of GOES satellites and made available from 2019. The solar radiation values represent the resource available to solar energy systems. The data was created using cloud properties which are generated using the AVHRR Pathfinder Atmospheres-Extended (PATMOS-x) algorithms developed by the University of Wisconsin. Fast all-sky radiation model for solar applications (FARMS) in conjunction with the cloud properties, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) and precipitable water vapor (PWV) from ancillary source are used to estimate solar irradiance (GHI, DNI, and DHI). The Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) is computed for clear skies using the REST2 model. For cloud scenes identified by the cloud mask, FARMS is used to compute GHI and FARMS DNI is used to compute the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI). The PATMOS-X model uses radiance images in visible and infrared channels from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series of geostationary weather satellites. Ancillary variables needed to run REST2 and FARMS (e.g., aerosol optical depth, precipitable water vapor, and albedo) are derived from NASA's Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis (MERRA-2) dataset. Temperature and wind speed data are also derived from MERRA-2 and provided for use in NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) to compute PV generation.

aerosol↗

Synergetic Use of the WSR-88D Radars, GOES-R Satellites, and Lightning Networks to Study Microphysical Characteristics of Hurricanes

Abstract This study analyzes the microphysics and precipitation pattern of Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018) in both the eyewall and outer rainband regions. From the retrievals by a satellite red–green–blue scheme, the outer rainbands show a strong convective structure while the inner eyewall has less convective vigor (i.e., weaker upper-level reflectivities and electrification), which may be related to stronger vertical wind shear that hinders fast vertical motions. The WSR-88D column-vertical profiles further confirm that the outer rainband clouds have strong vertical motion and large ice-phase hydrometeor formation aloft, which correlates well with 3D Lightning Mapping Array source counts in height and time. From the results from this study, it is determined that the inner eyewall region is dominated by warm rain, whereas the external rainband region contains intense mixed-phase precipitation. External rainbands are defined here as those that reside outside of the main hurricane circulation, associated with surface tropical storm wind speeds. The synergy of satellite and radar dual-polarization parameters is instrumental in distinguishing between the key microphysical features of intense convective rainbands and the warm-rain-dominated eyewall regions within the hurricanes. Substantial amounts of ice aloft and intense updrafts in the external rainbands are indicative of heavy surface precipitation, which can have important implications for severe weather warnings and quantitative precipitation forecasts. The novel part of this study is to combine ground-based radar measurement with satellite observations to study hurricane microphysical structure from surface to cloud top so as to fill in the gaps between the two observational techniques.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

A LARGE-SCALE SEARCH FOR EVIDENCE OF QUASI-PERIODIC PULSATIONS IN SOLAR FLARES

The nature of quasi-periodic pulsations (QPP) in solar flares is poorly constrained, and critically the general prevalence of such signals in solar flares is unknown. Therefore, we perform a large-scale search for evidence of signals consistent with QPP in solar flares, focusing on the 1–300 s timescale. We analyze 675 M- and X-class flares observed by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series in 1–8 Å soft X-rays between 2011 February 1 and 2015 December 31. Additionally, over the same era we analyze Fermi /Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) 15–25 keV X-ray data for each of these flares associated with a Fermi /GBM solar flare trigger, a total of 261 events. Using a model comparison method, we determine whether there is evidence for a substantial enhancement in the Fourier power spectrum that may be consistent with a QPP signature, based on three tested models; a power-law plus a constant, a broken power-law plus constant, and a power-law-plus-constant with an additional QPP signature component. From this, we determine that ∼30% of GOES events and ∼8% of Fermi /GBM events show strong signatures consistent with classical interpretations of QPP. For the remaining events either two or more tested models cannot be strongly distinguished from each other, or the events are well-described by single power-law or broken power-law Fourier power spectra. For both instruments, a preferred characteristic timescale of ∼5–30 s was found in the QPP-like events, with no dependence on flare magnitude in either GOES or GBM data. We also show that individual events in the sample show similar characteristic timescales in both GBM and GOES data sets. We discuss the implications of these results for our understanding of solar flares and possible QPP mechanisms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

New Solar Irradiance Measurements from the Miniature X-Ray Solar Spectrometer Cubesat

The goal of the Miniature X-ray Solar Spectrometer ( MinXSS ) CubeSat is to explore the energy distribution of soft X-ray (SXR) emissions from the quiescent Sun, active regions, and during solar flares and to model the impact on Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere. The energy emitted in the SXR range (0.1–10 keV) can vary by more than a factor of 100, yet we have limited spectral measurements in the SXRs to accurately quantify the spectral dependence of this variability. The MinXSS primary science instrument is an Amptek, Inc. X123 X-ray spectrometer that has an energy range of 0.5–30 keV with a nominal 0.15 keV energy resolution. Two flight models have been built. The first, MinXSS -1, has been making science observations since 2016 June 9 and has observed numerous flares, including more than 40 C-class and 7 M-class flares. These SXR spectral measurements have advantages over broadband SXR observations, such as providing the capability to derive multiple-temperature components and elemental abundances of coronal plasma, improved irradiance accuracy, and higher resolution spectral irradiance as input to planetary ionosphere simulations. MinXSS spectra obtained during the M5.0 flare on 2016 July 23 highlight these advantages and indicate how the elemental abundance appears to change from primarily coronal to more photospheric during the flare. MinXSS -1 observations are compared to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite ( GOES ) X-ray Sensor (XRS) measurements of SXR irradiance and estimated corona temperature. Additionally, a suggested improvement to the calibration of the GOES XRS data is presented.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Onset of a Large Ejective Solar Eruption from a Typical Coronal-jet-base Field Configuration

Utilizing multiwavelength observations and magnetic field data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO )/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), SDO /Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite ( GOES ), and RHESSI , we investigate a large-scale ejective solar eruption of 2014 December 18 from active region NOAA 12241. This event produced a distinctive “three-ribbon” flare, having two parallel ribbons corresponding to the ribbons of a standard two-ribbon flare, and a larger-scale third quasi-circular ribbon offset from the other two. There are two components to this eruptive event. First, a flux rope forms above a strong-field polarity inversion line and erupts and grows as the parallel ribbons turn on, grow, and spread apart from that polarity inversion line; this evolution is consistent with the mechanism of tether-cutting reconnection for eruptions. Second, the eruption of the arcade that has the erupting flux rope in its core undergoes magnetic reconnection at the null point of a fan dome that envelops the erupting arcade, resulting in formation of the quasi-circular ribbon; this is consistent with the breakout reconnection mechanism for eruptions. We find that the parallel ribbons begin well before (∼12 minutes) the onset of the circular ribbon, indicating that tether-cutting reconnection (or a non-ideal MHD instability) initiated this event, rather than breakout reconnection. The overall setup for this large-scale eruption (diameter of the circular ribbon ∼10{sup 5} km) is analogous to that of coronal jets (base size ∼10{sup 4} km), many of which, according to recent findings, result from eruptions of small-scale “minifilaments.” Thus these findings confirm that eruptions of sheared-core magnetic arcades seated in fan–spine null-point magnetic topology happen on a wide range of size scales on the Sun.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GLOBAL SAUSAGE OSCILLATION OF SOLAR FLARE LOOPS DETECTED BY THE INTERFACE REGION IMAGING SPECTROGRAPH

An observation from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph reveals coherent oscillations in the loops of an M1.6 flare on 2015 March 12. Both the intensity and Doppler shift of Fe xxi 1354.08 Å show clear oscillations with a period of ∼25 s. Remarkably similar oscillations were also detected in the soft X-ray flux recorded by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites ( GOES ). With an estimated phase speed of ∼2420 km s{sup −1} and a derived electron density of at least 5.4 × 10{sup 10} cm{sup −3}, the observed short-period oscillation is most likely the global fast sausage mode of a hot flare loop. We find a phase shift of ∼ π /2 (1/4 period) between the Doppler shift oscillation and the intensity/ GOES oscillations, which is consistent with a recent forward modeling study of the sausage mode. The observed oscillation requires a density contrast between the flare loop and coronal background of a factor ≥42. The estimated phase speed of the global mode provides a lower limit of the Alfvén speed outside the flare loop. We also find an increase of the oscillation period, which might be caused by the separation of the loop footpoints with time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (cGANs) for Near Real-Time Precipitation Estimation from Multispectral GOES-16 Satellite Imageries—PERSIANN-cGAN

In this paper, we present a state-of-the-art precipitation estimation framework which leverages advances in satellite remote sensing as well as Deep Learning (DL). The framework takes advantage of the improvements in spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the GOES-16 platform along with elevation information to improve the precipitation estimates. The procedure begins by first deriving a Rain/No Rain (R/NR) binary mask through classification of the pixels and then applying regression to estimate the amount of rainfall for rainy pixels. A Fully Convolutional Network is used as a regressor to predict precipitation estimates. The network is trained using the non-saturating conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss terms to generate results that better learn the complex distribution of precipitation in the observed data. Common verification metrics such as Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), Bias, Correlation and MSE are used to evaluate the accuracy of both R/NR classification and real-valued precipitation estimates. Statistics and visualizations of the evaluation measures show improvements in the precipitation retrieval accuracy in the proposed framework compared to the baseline models trained using conventional MSE loss terms. This framework is proposed as an augmentation for PERSIANN-CCS (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network- Cloud Classification System) algorithm for estimating global precipitation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Van Allen Probes, THEMIS, GOES, and cluster observations of EMIC waves, ULF pulsations, and an electron flux dropout

We examined an electron flux dropout during the 12–14 November 2012 geomagnetic storm using observations from seven spacecraft: the two Van Allen Probes, Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS)-A (P5), Cluster 2, and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 13, 14, and 15. The electron fluxes for energies greater than 2.0 MeV observed by GOES 13, 14, and 15 at geosynchronous orbit and by the Van Allen Probes remained at or near instrumental background levels for more than 24 h from 12 to 14 November. For energies of 0.8 MeV, the GOES satellites observed two shorter intervals of reduced electron fluxes. The first interval of reduced 0.8 MeV electron fluxes on 12–13 November was associated with an interplanetary shock and a sudden impulse. Cluster, THEMIS, and GOES observed intense He + electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves from just inside geosynchronous orbit out to the magnetopause across the dayside to the dusk flank. The second interval of reduced 0.8 MeV electron fluxes on 13–14 November was associated with a solar sector boundary crossing and development of a geomagnetic storm with Dst <–100 nT. At the start of the recovery phase, both the 0.8 and 2.0 MeV electron fluxes finally returned to near prestorm values, possibly in response to strong ultralow frequency (ULF) waves observed by the Van Allen Probes near dawn. A combination of adiabatic effects, losses to the magnetopause, scattering by EMIC waves, and acceleration by ULF waves can explain the observed electron behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Urban Land Surface Temperature Downscaling in Chicago: Addressing Ethnic Inequality and Gentrification

In this study, we developed a XGBoost-based algorithm to downscale 2 km-resolution land surface temperature (LST) data from the GOES satellite to a finer 70 m resolution, using ancillary variables including NDVI, NDBI, and DEM. This method demonstrated a superior performance over the conventional TsHARP technique, achieving a reduced RMSE of 1.90 °C, compared to 2.51 °C with TsHARP. Our approach utilizes the geostationary GOES satellite data alongside high-resolution ECOSTRESS data, enabling hourly LST downscaling to 70 m—a significant advancement over previous methodologies that typically measure LST only once daily. Applying these high-resolution LST data, we examined the hottest days in Chicago and their correlation with ethnic inequality. Our analysis indicated that Hispanic/Latino communities endure the highest LSTs, with a maximum LST that is 1.5 °C higher in blocks predominantly inhabited by Hispanic/Latino residents compared to those predominantly occupied by White residents. This study highlights the intersection of urban development, ethnic inequality, and environmental inequities, emphasizing the need for targeted urban planning to mitigate these disparities. The enhanced spatial and temporal resolution of our LST data provides deeper insights into diurnal temperature variations, crucial for understanding and addressing the urban heat distribution and its impact on vulnerable communities.

Lee, Jangho (ORCID:0000000289421092)↗

Integration of GOES Data for Solar Resource Assessment of the Contiguous United States

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), produced by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), provides high-resolution solar resource data for the contiguous United States (CONUS) using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) East and West observations. This study evaluates the integration of multi-satellite data within the GOES-East/West overlap regions, where conventional longitude-based selection methods often produce an artificial boundary seam. Our results demonstrate that an advanced blending algorithm, which incorporates sun-satellite scattering angles and satellite viewing zenith angles, improves NSRDB accuracy and creates a spatially continuous dataset. Validation against ground-based irradiance measurements reveals reductions in both percentage error (PE) and normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE), particularly in the central United States. The dynamical integration of multi-satellite data provides a robust foundation for more precise modeling of solar resource and improved spatiotemporal analysis of solar ramp across the CONUS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Comparisons of Ice Water Path in Deep Convective Systems Among Ground-Based, GOES, and CERES-MODIS Retrievals

Retrievals of convective cloud microphysical properties based on passive satellite imagery are difficult. To help quantify their uncertainties, ice water paths (IWPs) retrieved from the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System project using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Terra/Aqua MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer observations are compared with IWPs retrieved from Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) observations over a large domain (32°N to 40°N and 105°W to 91°W) during the 2011 Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment field campaign. Based on comparisons of pixel-level (4 km × 4 km) daytime IWP retrievals from NEXRAD and GOES, it is found that NEXRAD- and GOES-retrieved mean IWPs are 2.03 and 1.83 kg m -2 , respectively, for ice-phase cloud in thick anvil area. Their mean difference of 0.20 kg m -2 (with 95% confidence interval: 0.14-0.26 kg m -2 ) is within the uncertainty of NEXRAD retrievals. However, the low correlation between pixel-to-pixel comparisons indicates a large variation in GOES-retrieved IWP. For mixed-phase clouds in thick anvil areas, in addition to IWPs, total water paths (TWPs, sum of ice and liquid water path) are estimated with aid of aircraft measurements for NEXRAD retrievals and corrected using a TWP parameterization for GOES retrievals. The mean values of estimated TWPs from NEXRAD (corrected using aircraft in situ measurements) and GOES are similar. GOES and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System-MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-retrieved IWPs/TWPs generally do not exceed 5 kg m - 2. Large differences and low correlations exist between satellite and NEXRAD retrievals in stratiform rain areas. Possible reasons for the differences between retrievals are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗