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NASA NTRS2008

Comparison of GPCP Monthly and Daily Precipitation Estimates with High-Latitude Gauge Observations

It is very important to know how much rain and snow falls around the world for uses that range from crop forecasting to disaster response, drought monitoring to flood forecasting, and weather analysis to climate research. Precipitation is usually measured with rain gauges, but rain gauges don t exist in areas that are sparsely populated, which tends to be a good portion of the globe. To overcome this, meteorologists use satellite data to estimate global precipitation. However, it is difficult to estimate rain and especially snow in cold climates using most current satellites. The satellite sensors are often "confused" by a snowy or frozen surface and therefore cannot distinguish precipitation. One commonly used satellite-based precipitation data set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, overcomes this frozen-surface problem through the innovative use of two sources of satellite data, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Though the GPCP estimates are generally considered a very reliable source of precipitation, it has been difficult to assess the quality of these estimates in cold climates due to the lack of gauges. Recently, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has provided a 12-year span of high-quality daily rain gauge observations, covering all of Finland, that can be used to compare with the GPCP data to determine how well the satellites estimate cold-climate precipitation. Comparison of the monthly GPCP satellite-based estimates and the FMI gauge observations shows remarkably good agreement, with the GPCP estimates being 6% lower in the amount of precipitation than the FMI observations. Furthermore, the month-to-month correlation between the GPCP and FMI is very high at 0.95 (1.0 is perfect). The daily GPCP estimates replicate the FMI daily occurrences of precipitation with a correlation of 0.55 in the summer and 0.45 in the winter. The winter result indicates the GPCP estimates have skill in "seeing" snowfall, which is the most challenging situation. Thus, the GPCP data set successfully overcomes a current limitation in satellite meteorology, namely the estimation of cold-climate precipitation. The success of the GPCP data set bodes well for future missions, whose instrumentation is specifically designed to give even more information for addressing cold-climate precipitation.

Bolvin, David T.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Comparison of TRMM and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Precipitation Analyses

This paper describes recent results of using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (launched in November 1997) information as the key calibration tool in a merged analysis on a 1 x 1' latitude/longitude monthly scale based on multiple satellite sources and raingauge analyses. The TRMM-based product is compared with the community-based Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) results. The long-term GPCP analysis is compared to the new TRMM-based analysis which uses the most accurate TRMM information to calibrate the estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges those estimates together with the TRMM and gauge information to produce accurate rainfall estimates with the increased sampling provided by the combined satellite information. The comparison with TRMM results on a month-to-month basis should clarify the strengths and weaknesses of the long-term GPCP product in the tropics and point to how to improve the monitoring analysis. Preliminary results from the TRMM merged satellite analysis indicates fairly close agreement with the GPCP estimates. The GPCP analysis is done at 2.5 degree latitude/longitude resolution and interpolated to a 1 degree grid for comparison with the TRMM analysis. As expected the same features are evident in both panels, but there are subtle differences in the magnitudes. Focusing on the Pacific Ocean Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) one can see the TRMM-based estimates having higher peak values and lower values in the ITCZ periphery. These attributes also show up in the statistics, where GPCP>TRMM at low values (below 10 mm/d) and TRMM>GPCP at high values (greater than 15 mm/d). The area in the Indian Ocean which shows consistently higher values of TRMM over GPCP needs to be examined carefully to determine if the lack of geosynchronous data has led to a difference in the two analyses. By the time of the meeting over a year of TRMM products will be available for comparison. Global tropical and regional values will be compared. Both products will be compared to TRMM validation site data over land and water. The results should begin to determine the use of the TRMM estimates in the evaluation of the GPCP analysis.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Precipitation Means and Variations with the New Version of GPCP

Knowledge of global precipitation means, patterns and variations is essential for understanding the global water cycle. The observation-based global analysis of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) has been a key input to many such studies, including those related to means of the global (and regional) water and energy cycles. A new version (Version 3.1) of the GPCP monthly analysis is now available (1983-2019), with finer spatial resolution (0.5º latitude/longitude), updated satellite algorithms, latest gauge analysis over land from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC), and with ocean climatologies adjusted using information from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission and CloudSat. The presentation will give key findings from the new analysis, compare with the previous version, link to studies of the water cycle and compare to CMIP6 climate model results. The GPCP Monthly V3.1 analysis uses a Tropical Composite Climatology (TCC) using 22 years (1998-2019) of TRMM and GPM-based surface precipitation estimates from passive microwave, radar and combined passive microwave and radar observations to adjust the long-term mean values in the tropics over ocean. At higher latitudes over ocean climatological values of merged CloudSat and GPM combined passive microwave and radar surface precipitation estimates are used. The result of the new algorithms and procedures is an ocean mean value 60º N to 60º S of 3.2 mm/d, an increase of 7% from the older V2.3. Over land the gauge analysis (from GPCC in Germany), combined with satellite estimates results in a small decrease (~ 0.5%) from the previous version, giving a total global precipitation mean of 2.81 mm/d for V3.1, an increase of 4.5%. Variations from inter-annual to trend scales over most of the ocean are driven by the Colorado State University (CSU) Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm applied to SSMI/SSMIS satellite data. The new GPCP version retains a near zero trend of global precipitation, with significant positive trends in the deep tropics along the Pacific ITCZ and elsewhere, countered by middle latitude decreases, very similar to the previous version of the GPCP Monthly analysis. The pattern of trends is similar to that of AMIP climate model results, driven by observed SSTs for the period in question, but very different from results for “free-running” CMIP historical ensembles, likely due in part to the relatively short comparison period and effects of inter-decadal variations in the GPCP and AMIP results that are not in the “history” models. Interannual variations are also nearly the same in the new version, but with finer detail, although ENSO variations over the ocean have slightly larger amplitude than before, an effect likely related to the change in ocean satellite algorithm used in Version 3. For precipitation intensity (percentiles) at the monthly scale, especially in the tropics, GPCP shows a positive trend for the upper one third of the percentiles (Pct ≥ 70th) and a much weaker positive trend for the lowest percentiles (Pct ≤ 10th), while negative trends appear for the middle one-half percentiles (20th-65th). AMIP results agree with those from the GPCP in terms of the sign of the changes/trends for high and intermediate percentiles. The CMIP historical results also agree in the sign of the trends, but the trends are weaker. Comparisons with other types of CMIP historical simulations including the GHG-only, aerosol-only, and nature-only runs suggest that the observed changes/trends in precipitation amount and intensity during the GPCP period are dominated by a combination of the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic GHG-related surface warming.

Robert Adler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Latitude Considerations in the Latest GPCP monthly and daily products (V3.1)

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) product is a popular combined satellite-gauge precipitation data set in which the long-term standards of consistency and homogeneity is underlined. Here we discuss various high latitude analysis considered in the recently released GPCP V3.1 monthly and daily products. Satellite data are used over land and ocean and obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI), Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS), geostationary imagers and polar orbiting infrared sounders. GPCP uses the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) over land, as its in situ component, but prior to combination with satellite data GPCC estimates are adjusted for gauge undercatch. Advanced sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), CloudSat, and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission have enabled more accurate estimation of rain and snowfall rates in recent years. Started with GPCP V3.1 these observations are integrated into GPCP through the development of the Tropical Combined Climatology (TCC) used at lower latitudes and the Merged CloudSat, TRMM, and GPM (MCTG) climatology used over the extra tropics and higher latitudes. Improved calibrations of Television-Infrared Operational Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and Advanced Infrared Sounder (AIRS) precipitation are used outside 60ºN-S, where inside this zone the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm retrievals from SSMI/SSMIS is used to calibrate geostationary IR based precipitation estimate at monthly scale. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mass change observations are used to determine snowfall accumulations over frozen land and arctic basins and to assess gauge undercatch corrections. Observations of snow on sea ice from NASA’s Operation IceBridge (OIB) flights are utilized as an additional tool for snowfall assessment over sea ice. GPCP V3.1 has higher spatial resolution (0.5ox0.5o) than earlier versions (2.5ox2.5o) over both land and ocean, going back to 1983. Version 3 Daily product uses the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) Final Run V06 estimates, where available (initially restricted to 60°N-S), as well as rescaled TOVS/AIRS data in high-latitude areas, all calibrated to the GPCP V3.1 Monthly estimate. GPCP V3.1 shows about 6% increase in global oceanic precipitation and about 4.5% increase over global land and ocean compared to the previous version (V2.3), some major changes occur over the ocean and around 40oS and 60 oS. We will discuss other important changes of GPCP V3.1, compared to the earlier versions, and our future plans. Through this presentation we will also discuss that while ACCP will provide key information about precipitation, synergistic use of other Earth observing systems (e.g., mass change; recognized as a designated mission in 2017 decadal survey) can also help refine precipitation analysis, especially in high latitude and cold regions.

Ali Behrangi↗

NASA NTRS1998

Comparison of Globally Complete Versions of GPCP and CMAP Monthly Precipitation Analyses

In this study two global observational precipitation products, namely the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's (GPCP) community data set and CPC's Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), are compared on global to regional scales in the context of the different satellite and gauge data inputs and merger techniques. The average annual global precipitation rates, calculated from data common in regions/times to both GPCP and CMAP, are similar for the two. However, CMAP is larger than GPCP in the tropics because: (1) CMAP values in the tropics are adjusted month-by month to atoll gauge data in the West Pacific, which are greater than any satellite observations used; and (2) CMAP is produced from a linear combination of data inputs, which tends to give higher values than the microwave emission estimates alone to which the inputs are adjusted in the GPCP merger over the ocean. The CMAP month-to-month adjustment to the atolls also appears to introduce temporal variations throughout the tropics which are not detected by satellite-only products. On the other hand, GPCP is larger than CMAP in the high-latitude oceans, where CMAP includes the scattering based microwave estimates which are consistently smaller than the emission estimates used in both techniques. Also, in the polar regions GPCP transitions from the emission microwave estimates to the larger TOVS-based estimates. Finally, in high-latitude land areas GPCP can be significantly larger than CMAP because GPCP attempts to correct the gauge estimates for errors due to wind loss effects.

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Newly Released GPCP Version 3.2 Global Precipitation Datasets at NASA GES DISC

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is the precipitation component of an internationally coordinated set of (mainly) satellite-based global products dealing with the Earth's water and energy cycles, under the auspices of the Global Water and Energy Experiment (GEWEX) Data and Assessment Panel (GDAP) of the World Climate Research Program. As the follow-on to the GPCP Version 2.X products, GPCP Version 3 (GPCP V3.2) seeks to continue the production of long, homogeneous precipitation record using modern input and calibration datasets. The GPCP V3.2 provides globally complete analyses of surface precipitation on a 0.5°x 0.5° latitude/longitude grid at both monthly and daily intervals, respectively covering 1983 to the present and June 2000 to the present. New data fields have been introduced to better characterize the precipitation, particularly including an estimate of the fraction of the precipitation that is liquid (rain) in both the Monthly and Daily, and a Quality Index for the Monthly. Compared to the operational GPCP V2.3 Monthly, the V3.2 Monthly provides a more reasonable climatology in the Southern Ocean, and increases the global average precipitation by about 4.46%, which is in line with recommendations of recent assessments. However, the two versions have comparable global and regional trends for 1983-2020. Compared to the operational One-Degree Daily (Version 1.3) product, the V3.2 Daily better represents the histogram of precipitation rates, particularly at high values. In this presentation, we will present the latest GPCP V3.2 daily and monthly datasets archived and distributed at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) along with examples from NASA Giovanni.

Precipitation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Next-Generation Version 3 GPCP Products

The long-standing Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) recently introduced its next-generation Version 3.1 Monthly product, , which covers the period 1983-2019. Notable improvements include higher spatial resolution (0.5°x0.5°), geosynchronous IR estimates extended to the latitude band 60°N-S and based on the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) algorithm, and high-latitude (outside 60ºN-S) precipitation estimates based on improved calibrations of Television-Infrared Operational Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and Advanced Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data. The satellite-only estimate is adjusted to the best available monthly climatologies, namely the Tropical Combined Climatology (TCC) at lower latitudes and the Merged CloudSat, TRMM, and GPM (MCTG) climatology at higher latitudes. Finally, V3.1 merges these climatologically-adjusted satellite-only estimates with the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gauge analyses at 1°x1°. In addition to the V3.1 Monthly product, the GPCP team is working towards a global Version 3 Daily product based on Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) Final Run V06 estimates, where available, calibrated to the GPCP V3.1 Monthly estimate. Rescaled TOVS/AIRS data are used in high-latitude areas that lack IMERG estimates, which occur over snowy/icy surfaces outside 60°N-S. Since IMERG currently extends back to June 2000, daily PERSIANN-CDR data are used for the period January 1983–May 2000 to complete the record. This presentation will provide early results for, and the latest status of, the Monthly and Daily GPCP products as a function of time and region. Key points include examining homogeneity over time and across boundaries between input datasets. One goal is to determine the suitability of the V3 products while we continue to produce the Version 2 GPCP products for on-going use.

precipitation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Insights into Long-Term Global Precipitation from IMERG and GPCP

Multiple satellite-based datasets provide estimates of the long-term record of global precipitation. Each necessarily includes both the real atmospheric behavior and a collection of artifacts driven by the input data sources and design choices in the retrievals and dataset construction. For this presentation, the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission’s U.S. Science Team are designed as a modern High-Resolution Precipitation Product (HRPP), while the Global Precipitation Climatology Project’s (GPCP) products are designed as a modern Climate Data Record (CDR). Although they share some common input data sources, the computational process for each is rather different. Comparing the precipitation estimates from each algorithm gives us insights into likely artifacts and the natural variations that are common to both. The goal of an HRPP is to give the best estimate of precipitation at each time step in the dataset, generally meaning that “all possible available” data are used. In contrast, the CDR is intended to provide a precipitation record that has relatively homogeneous statistics, necessary for climate analysis. Each analysis strives for both goals, of course, but this means that the HRPP uses the disparate collection of satellites whose statistics don’t quite match the ideal record, while the CDR is computed from fewer satellites that provide a relatively homogeneous set of precipitation statistics. This presentation employs the current versions of the IMERG and GPCP products, V07B and V3.2, respectively. A variety of analyses have demonstrated that IMERG has more artifacts, as expected, which tend to result from changes in the source of intercalibration for the various input satellites, namely the Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm using TMI and PR during the TRMM era and using GMI and DPR-Ku during the GPM era. As well, a shift occurs when the altitudes of the TRMM and GPM satellites change as a result of orbit boosts. For the most part the mean precipitation shows good continuity across these boundaries, but there are noticeable changes in the respective histograms. The latter has taken on more importance in recent years due to increased scrutiny on extremes which implicitly focus on the upper end of the precipitation histograms. The GPCP product is more homogeneous, with only one major change in calibrator, transitioning from the SSMI series of satellites to the SSMIS series of satellites in 2009. The GPCP analysis does a good job of minimizing artifacts in the means at this boundary, while the histograms show a smaller, but still noticeable shift in the histograms, a result that is similar to data boundaries in IMERG. The GPCP Daily, which is a month-by-month rescaling of the daily accumulated IMERG Final product, shows more consistency than the equivalent daily IMERG, but inherits the histogram shifts from IMERG. Given this overlay of artifacts, there is enough consistency between the products to illustrate some important long-term variations, including interannual variations, not all of which are easily attributable to ENSO events, and trends that are large regionally, but comparatively small when averaged across the globe.

precipitation↗

NASA NTRS1999

The New 20-Year Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Merged Satellite and Rainguage Monthly Analysis

A new 20-year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis has been completed as part of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). This Version 2 of the community generated data set is a result of combining the procedures and data sets as described. The global, monthly, 2.5x 2.5 degree latitude-longitude product utilizes precipitation estimates from low-orbit microwave sensors (SSM/1) and geosynchronous IR sensors and raingauge information over land. The low-orbit microwave estimates are used to adjust or correct the geosynchronous IR estimates, thereby maximizing the utility of the more physically-based microwave estimates and the finer time sampling of the geosynchronous observations. Information from raingauges is blended into the analyses over land. In the 1986-present period TOVS-based precipitation estimates are adjusted to GPCP fields and used in polar regions to produce globally-complete results. The extension back to 1979 utilizes the procedures of Xie and Arkin and their OLR Precipitation Index (OPI). The 20-year climatology of the Version 2 GPCP analysis indicates the expected features of a very strong Pacific Ocean ITCZ and SPCZ with maximum 20-year means approaching 10 mm/day. A similar strength maximum over land is evident over Borneo. Weaker maxima in the tropics occur in the Atlantic ITCZ and over South America and Africa. In mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere the Western Pacific and Western Atlantic maxima have values of approximately 7 mm/day, while in the Southern Hemisphere the mid-latitude maxima are located southeast of Africa, in mid-Pacific as an extension of the SPCZ and southeast of South America. In terms of global totals the GPCP analysis shows 2.7 mm/day (3.0 mm/day over ocean; 2.1 mm/day over land), similar to the Jaeger climatology, but not other climatologies. Zonal averages peak at 6 mm/day at 7*N with mid-latitude peaks of about 3 mm/day at 40-45* latitude. Poleward of 45* the GPCP analysis shows larger zonally-averaged values than most previous satellite-based estimates, although the values are similar to tl,ie Jaeger climatology. Over both ocean areas and at high latitudes the analysis requires additional validation and comparison with special, independent data sets from field experiments and from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) to confirm the absolute magnitude and variations of precipitation seen in the analysis. Interannual and other variations of the global fields will be shown focusing on the recent ('97-'99) ENSO event compared with previous events, including teleconnections at mid and high latitudes. An ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) calculated using the new data set will be described and related to the evolution of the ENSO events during the 20-year period.

Adler, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2001

Global Monthly and Daily Precipitation Analysis for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP): Global and Regional Variations and Trends

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis are described in terms of the data sets and analysis techniques used in their preparation. These analyses are then used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations are also compared with the GPCP analyses and are evaluated with regard to improving the long-term GPCP data set.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Variability of Precipitation from the Seasonal Cycle to ENSO Using GPCP's Merged Data Product and SSM/I-Based Microwave Estimates

Satellite estimates and gauge observations of precipitation are useful in understanding the water cycle, analyzing climatic variability, and validating climate models. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) released a community merged precipitation data set for the period July 1987 through the present, and has recently extended that data set back to 1986. One objective of this study is to use GPCP estimates to describe and quantify the seasonal variation of precipitation, with emphasis on the Asian summer monsoon. Another focus is the 1997-98 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and associated extreme precipitation events. The summer monsoon tends to be drier than normal in El Nino ears. This was not observed for 1997 or 1998, while for 1997 the NCEP model produced the largest summer rain rates over India in years. This inconsistency will be examined. The average annual global precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day as estimated by GPCP, which is similar to values computed from long-term climatologies. From 30 deg N to 30 deg S the average precipitation rate is 2.7 mm day over land with a maximum in the annual cycle occurring in February-March, when the Amazon basin receives abundant rainfall. The average precipitation rate is 3.1 mm day over the tropical oceans, with a peak earlier in the season (November-December), corresponding with the transition from a strong Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from June to November to a strong South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) from December to March. The seasonal evolution of C, C, the Asian summer monsoon stands out with rains in excess of 15 mm day off the coast of Burma in June. The GPROF pentad data also captures the onset of the tropical Pacific rainfall patterns associated with the 1997-98 ENSO. From February to October 1997 at least four rain-producing systems traveled from West to East in the equatorial corridor. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions occurred in May-June 1998. GPCP and GPROF were used to construct precipitation-based ENSO indices to monitor El Ninos (EL) and La Ninas and (LI).

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1999

TRMM-based Merged Data Products Compared to Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Analyses

This paper describes recent results of using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (launched in November 1997) information as the key calibration tool; in a merged analysis on a 1 degree x l degree latitude/longitude monthly scale based on multiple satellite sources and raingauge analyses. The TRMM-based product will be compared with the community-based Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) results. The long-term GPCP analysis is compared to the new TRMM-based analysis which uses the most accurate TRMM information to calibrate the estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges those estimates together with the TRMM and gauge information to produce accurate rainfall estimates with the increased sampling provided by the combined satellite information. The comparison with TRMM results on a month-to-month basis should clarify the strengths and weaknesses of the long-term GPCP product in the tropics and point to how to improve the monitoring analysis. Preliminary results from the TRMM merged satellite analysis indicates close agreement with the GPCP estimates. By the time of the meeting over a year of TRMM products will be available for comparison. Global tropical and regional values will be compared. Seasonal variations, and variations associated with the 1998 El Nino/Southern Oscillation ENSO event will be examined and compared between the two analyses. These variations will be examined carefully and validated where possible from surface-based radar and gauge observations. The role of TRMM observations in the refinement of the long-term monitoring product will be outlined.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Magnitude and Variability of Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 1999 the northern mid-latitudes appear to be drying, the southern mid-latitudes have gotten wetter, and there is a mixed signal in the tropics. The relation between this field of trends and the relation to the frequency of El Nino events during this time period is explored. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. These El Nino minus La Nina composites of normalized precipitation show the usual positive, or wet, anomaly over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with the negative, or dry, anomaly over the maritime continent along with an additional negative anomaly over Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean extending into Africa and a positive anomaly over the Horn of Africa and the western Indian Ocean. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern US and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. The N.H. counterpart crosses the North Pacific and southern Canada. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Status and Plans for the WCRP/GEWEX Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

Status and plans for GPCP are presented along with scientific findings from the current data set. Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 26-year (1979-2004) monthly dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). One emphasis is to discriminate among the variations due to ENSO, volcanic events and possible long-term changes. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, the data set does indicate an upward trend (0.13 mm/day/25yr) and a downward trend (-0.06 mm/day/25yr) over tropical oceans and lands (25S-25N), respectively. This corresponds to a 4% increase (ocean) and 2% decrease (land) during this time period. Simple techniques are derived to attempt to eliminate variations due to ENSO and major volcanic eruptions in the Tropics. Using only annual values two "volcano years" are determined by examining ocean-land coupled variations in precipitation related to ENSO and other phenomena. The outlier years coincide with Pinatubo and El Chicon eruptions. The ENSO signal is reduced by deriving mean ocean and land values for El Nino, La Nina and neutral conditions based on Nino 3.4 SST and normalizing the annual ocean and land precipitation to the neutral set of cases. The impact of the two major volcanic eruptions over the past 25 years is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall. The modified data set (with ENSO and volcano effect at least partially removed) retains the same approximate linear change slopes over the data set period, but with reduced variance leading to significance tests with results in the 90-95% range. Intercomparisons between the GPCP, SSM/I (1988-2004), and TRMM (1998-2004) satellite rainfall products and alternate gauge analyses over land are made to attempt to increase or decrease confidence in the changes seen in the GPCP analysis.

Adkerm Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Validation and Development of the GPCP Experimental One-Degree Daily (1DD) Global Precipitation Product

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) precipitation dataset has been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and is currently in beta test preparatory to release as an official GPCP product. The 1DD provides a globally-complete, observation-only estimate of precipitation on a daily 1 deg. x 1 deg. grid for the period 1997 through early 2000 (by the time of the conference). In the latitude band 40N-40S the 1DD uses the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI), a GPI-like IR product with the pixel-level T(sub b) threshold and (single) conditional rain rate determined locally for each month by the frequency of precipitation in the GPROF SSM/I product and by, the precipitation amount in the GPCP monthly satellite-gauge (SG) combination. Outside 40N-40S the 1DD uses a scaled TOVS precipitation estimate that has month-by-month adjustments based on the TMPI and the SG. Early validation results are encouraging. The 1DD shows relatively large scatter about the daily validation values in individual grid boxes, as expected for a technique that depends on cloud-sensing schemes such as the TMPI and TOVS. On the other hand, the time series of 1DD shows good correlation with validation in individual boxes. For example, the 1997-1998 time series of 1DD and Oklahoma Mesonet values in a grid box in northeastern Oklahoma have the correlation coefficient = 0.73. Looking more carefully at these two time series, the number of raining days for the 1DD is within 7% of the Mesonet value, while the distribution of daily rain values is very similar. Other tests indicate that area- or time-averaging improve the error characteristics, making the data set highly attractive to users interested in stream flow, short-term regional climatology, and model comparisons. The second generation of the 1DD product is currently under development; it is designed to directly incorporate TRMM and other high-quality precipitation estimates. These data are generally sparse because they are observed by low-orbit satellites, so a fair amount of work must be devoted to analyzing the effect of data boundaries. This work is laying, the groundwork for effective use of the NASA Global Precipitation Mission, which will have full Global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours.

Huffman, George J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present)

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Version 2 Monthly Precipitation Analysis is described. This globally complete, monthly analysis of surface precipitation at 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude resolution is available from January 1979 to the present. It is a merged analysis that incorporates precipitation estimates from low-orbit-satellite microwave data, geosynchronous-orbit-satellite infrared data, and rain gauge observations. The merging approach utilizes the higher accuracy of the low-orbit microwave observations to calibrate, or adjust, the more frequent geosynchronous infrared observations. The data set is extended back into the premicrowave era (before 1987) by using infrared-only observations calibrated to the microwave-based analysis of the later years. The combined satellite-based product is adjusted by the raingauge analysis. This monthly analysis is the foundation for the GPCP suite of products including those at finer temporal resolution, satellite estimate, and error estimates for each field. The 23-year GPCP climatology is characterized, along with time and space variations of precipitation.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Global Precipitation Variations and Long-term Changes Derived from the GPCP Monthly Product

Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 25-year (1979-2004) monthly dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The emphasis is to discriminate among the variations due to ENSO, volcanic events and possible long-term changes. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, the data set does indicate an upward trend (0.13 mm/day/25yr) and a downward trend (-0.06 mm/day/25yr) over tropical oceans and lands (25S-25N), respectively. This corresponds to a 4% increase (ocean) and 2% decrease (land) during this time period. Techniques are applied to attempt to eliminate variations due to ENSO and major volcanic eruptions. The impact of the two major volcanic eruptions over the past 25 years is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall. The modified data set (with ENSO and volcano effect removed) retains the same approximate change slopes, but with reduced variance leading to significance tests with results in the 90-95% range. Inter-comparisons between the GPCP, SSWI (1988-2004), and TRMM (1998-2004) rainfall products are made to increase or decrease confidence in the changes seen in the GPCP analysis.

Adler, Robert F.↗