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Inner Radiation Belt Representation of the Energetic Electron Environment: Model and Data Synthesis Using the Salammbo Radiation Belt Transport Code and Los Alamos Geosynchronous and GPS Energetic Particle Data

The highly energetic electron environment in the inner magnetosphere (GEO inward) has received a lot of research attention in resent years, as the dynamics of relativistic electron acceleration and transport are not yet fully understood. These electrons can cause deep dielectric charging in any space hardware in the MEO to GEO region. We use a new and novel approach to obtain a global representation of the inner magnetospheric energetic electron environment, which can reproduce the absolute environment (flux) for any spacecraft orbit in that region to within a factor of 2 for the energy range of 100 KeV to 5 MeV electrons, for any levels of magnetospheric activity. We combine the extensive set of inner magnetospheric energetic electron observations available at Los Alamos with the physics based Salammbo transport code, using the data assimilation technique of "nudging". This in effect input in-situ data into the code and allows the diffusion mechanisms in the code to interpolate the data into regions and times of no data availability. We present here details of the methods used, both in the data assimilation process and in the necessary inter-calibration of the input data used. We will present sample runs of the model/data code and compare the results to test spacecraft data not used in the data assimilation process.

Friedel, R. H. W.↗

Global Positioning System Energetic Particle Data: The Next Space Weather Data Revolution

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has revolutionized the process of getting from point A to point Band so much more. A large fraction of the worlds population relies on GPS (and its counterparts from other nations) for precision timing, location, and navigation. Most GPS users are unaware that the spacecraft providing the signals they rely on are operating in a very harsh space environment the radiation belts where energetic particles trapped in Earths magnetic field dash about at nearly the speed of light. These subatomic particles relentlessly pummel GPS satellites. So by design, every GPS satellite and its sensors are radiation hardened. Each spacecraft carries particle detectors that provide health and status data to system operators. Although these data reveal much about the state of the space radiation environment, heretofore they have been available only to system operators and supporting scientists. Research scientists have long sought a policy shift to allow more general access. With the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan organized by the White House Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) a sample of these data have been made available to space weather researchers. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the National Center for Environmental Information released a months worth of GPS energetic particle data from an interval of heightened space weather activity in early 2014 with the hope of stimulating integration of these data sets into the research arena. Even before the public data release GPS support scientists from LANL showed the extraordinary promise of these data.

Knipp, Delores J.↗

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Outer Radiation Belt Flux and Phase Space Density Response to Sheath Regions: Van Allen Probes and GPS Observations

Turbulent and compressed sheath regions preceding interplanetary coronal mass ejections strongly impact electron dynamics in the outer radiation belt. Changes in electron flux can occur on timescales of tens of minutes, which are unlikely to be captured by a two-satellite mission. The recently released Global Positioning System (GPS) data set generally has shorter revisit times (at L ~ 4–8) owing to the large number of satellites in the constellation equipped with energetic particle detectors. Investigating electron fluxes at energies from 140 keV to 4 MeV and sheaths observed in 2012–2018, we show that the flux response to sheaths on a timescale of 6 hr, previously reported from Van Allen Probes (RBSP) data, is reproduced by GPS measurements. Furthermore, GPS data enables derivation of the response on a timescale of 30 min, which further confirms that the energy and L-shell dependent changes in electron flux are associated with the impact of the sheath. Sheath-driven loss is underestimated over longer timescales as the electrons recover during the ejecta. We additionally show the response of electron phase space density (PSD), which is a key quantity in identifying non-adiabatic loss from the system and electron energization through wave-particle interactions. The PSD response is calculated from both RBSP and GPS data for the 6 hr timescale, as well as from GPS data for the 30 min timescale. The response is divided based on the geoeffectiveness of the sheaths revealing that electrons are effectively accelerated only during geoeffective sheaths, while loss commonly occurs during all sheaths.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparison of Energetic Electron Fluxes Measured by GPS and THEMIS Spacecraft in the Inner Magnetosphere

Key elements of space weather models are energetic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere and the outer radiation belt. Flux depletion is driven by various loss processes: scattering into atmosphere, magnetopause shadowing. Flux enhancement is driven by various acceleration processes: local wave-particle interactions, radial transport, plasma sheet injections. Many of these processes operate on ~ hour timescales. Such mesoscale flux variations are not well traced by equatorial spacecraft with much longer orbits. Energetic electron detectors onboard the Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation provide a unique opportunity for probing such ~ hour-scale flux variations. Measurements from up to 23 identically instrumented GPS satellites cover a wide energy and L-shell range with a subhour time resolution. However, their orbits are inclined and thus all measurements at L-shell >4.3 are off-equatorial. Here, in this report, we present a comparison of equatorial THEMIS and nonequatorial GPS measurements of omnidirectional ≤600 keV electron fluxes. Such a comparison allows us to derive coefficients for using off-equatorial GPS fluxes to infer the equatorial values. These coefficients depend on particle energy and L-shell. We demonstrate a new data set derived from GPS measurements and discuss how it can be used to investigate mesoscale dynamics of energetic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Global Prompt Proton Sensor Network: Monitoring Solar Energetic Protons Based on GPS Satellite Constellation

Energetic particle instruments on board Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites form a powerful global prompt proton sensor network (GPPSn) that provides an unprecedented opportunity to monitor and characterize solar energetic protons targeting the Earth. The medium-Earth orbits of the GPS constellation have the unique advantage of allowing solar energetic protons to be simultaneously measured from multiple points in both open- and closed-field line regions. Examining two example intervals of solar proton events, we showcase in this study how GPS proton data are prepared, calibrated, and utilized to reveal important features of solar protons, including their source, acceleration/scattering by interplanetary shocks, the relative position of Earth when impinged by these shocks, the shape of solar particle fronts, the access of solar protons inside the dynamic geomagnetic field, and temporally varying proton distributions in both energy and space. By comparing to Van Allen Probes data, GPS proton observations are further demonstrated not only to be useful for qualitatively monitoring the dynamics of solar protons but also for quantitative scientific research including determining cutoff L-shells. Finally, our results establish that this GPPSn can join forces with other existing solar proton monitors and contribute to observing, warning, understanding, and ultimately forecasting the incoming solar energetic proton events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Data-Driven Specification of Earth's Magnetic Field

As our society is increasingly dependent on technologies in space, predicting space weather becomes ever more important. We have come to rely on technologies such as cellphones, GPS, the Internet, and other commercial and military assets. In order to protect these systems a high priority is to develop better understanding of the harmful conditions of space weather encountered in the near-Earth radiation environment which are mostly dictated by the dynamics of energetic charged particles. The main objective of our proposal was to improve the specification and forecast of the particle distribution in the Earth’s inner magnetosphere using data assimilation together with machine learning (ML) algorithms in our ring current-atmosphere interactions model with self-consistent magnetic and electric fields (RAM-SCBE). Specifically, we explored the application of machine learning algorithms to emulate and improve, through infusion of observational data, the magnetic field (SCBE) of our ring current model. Our work advanced towards the characterization of the RAM-SCBE particle flux field and its potentially different simulation scenarios. We explored how the model behaves in a number of simulation scenarios in order to better understand how the model reacts to perturbations in the solar wind. We were able to capture this behavior through the simulation of an ensemble of RAM-SCB model solutions. The ensemble showed the important correlations between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. We were able to start the training of a neural network (Autoencoder) to identify the dominant features of the magnetic field, and the main correlations (linear and non-linear) between the particle fluxes and the magnetic field. Our next steps consists of training a neural network to capture the time evolution of the dominant features and obtain a consistent surrogate model for the RAM-SCB.

42 ENGINEERING↗

PreMevE‐MEO: Predicting Ultra‐Relativistic Electrons Using Observations From GPS Satellites

Abstract Ultra‐relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron‐volt (MeV) pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics, and thus specifying those highly energetic electrons has a significant meaning to space weather communities. Here we report the latest progress in developing our predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, primarily driven by electron measurements made along medium‐Earth‐orbits (MEO), is called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)‐MEO model that nowcasts ultra‐relativistic electron flux distributions across the whole outer belt. Model inputs include >2 MeV electron fluxes observed in MEOs by a fleet of GPS satellites as well as electrons measured by one Los Alamos satellite in the geosynchronous orbit. We developed an innovative Sparse Multi‐Inputs Latent Ensemble NETwork (SmileNet) which combines convolutional neural networks with transformers, and we used long‐term in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission to train, validate, optimize, and test the model. It is shown that PreMevE‐MEO can provide hourly nowcasts with high model performance efficiency and high correlation with observations. This prototype PreMevE‐MEO model demonstrates the feasibility of making high‐fidelity predictions driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure in MEO, thus has great potential of growing into an invaluable space weather operational warning tool.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar Eruptive Events

It s long been known that the Sun plays host to the most energetic explosions in the solar system. But key insights into the forms that energy takes have only recently become available. Solar flares have been phenomena of both academic and practical interest since their discovery in 1859. From the academic point of view, they are the nearest events for studying the explosive release of energy in astrophysical magnetized plasmas. From the practical point of view, they disrupt communication channels on Earth, from telegraph communications in 1859 to radio and television signals today. Flares also wreak havoc on the electrical power grid, satellite operations, and GPS signals, and energetic charged particles and radiation are dangerous to passengers on high-altitude polar flights and to astronauts. Flares are not the only explosive phenomena on the Sun. More difficult to observe but equally energetic are the large coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the ejection of up to ten billion tons of magnetized plasma into the solar wind at speeds that can exceed 1000 km/s. CMEs are primarily observed from the side, with coronagraphs that block out the bright disk of the Sun and lower solar atmosphere so that light scattered from the ejected mass can be seen. Major geomagnetic storms are now known to arise from the interaction of CMEs with Earth's magnetosphere. Solar flares are observed without CMEs, and CMEs are observed without flares. The two phenomena often occur together, however, and almost always do in the case of large flares and fast CMEs. The term solar eruptive event refers to the combination of a flare and a CME. Solar eruptive events generate a lot of heat: They can heat plasma to temperatures as high at 50 million Kelvin, producing radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum. But that s not all. A fascinating aspect of solar eruptive events is the acceleration of electrons and ions to suprathermal often relativistic energies. The accelerated particles are primarily observed through their emissions in the higher energy x-ray, gamma-ray, and rf regimes. The radio and x-ray emissions are both from mildly relativistic electrons with energies of tens of keV and above. Gamma-ray line emission comes indirectly from accelerated protons and heavier ions with MeV and higher energies. The difficulty in collecting spatially and spectrally resolved x-ray and gamma-ray data has long been a barrier to learning about the accelerated particles. Considerable progress has been made in the last decade in understanding the relationship between the flare, the CME, energy release, and particle acceleration. But many new questions have also arisen. In this article, I describe those new insights and our evolving understanding of solar eruptive events.

Holman, Gordon D.↗