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At least 19 records

Benchmark calculations of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases

Changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models, and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line–by–line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. Clear–sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a re–analysis of present–day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing from pre–industrial times to the present–day with sampling errors of less than 0.01 W m –2 . Six contributing line–by–line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 W m –2 while even recently–developed parameterizations have typical errors four or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line–by–line models and that parameterization error will be readily identifiable. Agreement among line–by–line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are estimated from climate model simulations. Here, the adjustment due to stratospheric temperature change by assuming fixed dynamical heating. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest non–linearity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere

The terrestrial biosphere can release or absorb the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and therefore has an important role in regulating atmospheric composition and climate 1 . Anthropogenic activities such as land-use change, agriculture and waste management have altered terrestrial biogenic greenhouse gas fluxes, and the resulting increases in methane and nitrous oxide emissions in particular can contribute to climate change 2, 3 . The terrestrial biogenic fluxes of individual greenhouse gases have been studied extensively 4, 5, 6 , but the net biogenic greenhouse gas balance resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system remains uncertain. Here we use bottom-up (inventory, statistical extrapolation of local flux measurements, and process-based modelling) and top-down (atmospheric inversions) approaches to quantify the global net biogenic greenhouse gas balance between 1981 and 2010 resulting from anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system. We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions is a factor of about two larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land carbon dioxide uptake from 2001 to 2010. This results in a net positive cumulative impact of the three greenhouse gases on the planetary energy budget, with a best estimate (in petagrams of CO 2 equivalent per year) of 3.9 ± 3.8 (top down) and 5.4 ± 4.8 (bottom up) based on the GWP100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon). Lastly, our findings suggest that a reduction in agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions, particularly in Southern Asia, may help mitigate climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies

Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report

Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N 2 O, CH 4 , HFCs, CFCs, and O 3 . Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfully implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O 3 , N 2 O, NO y and CH 4 ) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stable isotopes of carbon dioxide (CO2), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), water and concentrations of greenhouse gases in a mountainous watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado)

Temperature and precipitation variability in response to climate change affects water cycling of watersheds and can potentially impact water quality, water availability, elemental and molecular fluxes, and biogeochemical processes. Here we report the measurements of light stable isotopes and greenhouse gases analysis to a large multidisciplinary project addressing watershed function. Water hydrogen (H) and oxygen (O) stable isotopes of snow and water saturated soil were measured to constrain source contributions to groundwater and streamflow. In an effort to better constrain existing nitrogen and carbon cycling models in high-altitude ecosystems, carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) greenhouse gases concentrations and stable isotope signatures of CO2, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and water were measured. This dataset includes one CSV file and one Excel file containing data including stable isotopes of carbon dioxide (CO2), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), water and concentrations of greenhouse gases. The CSV and Excel files contain the same information/data but have included both versions for accessibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Note: Measurement system for the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in a laboratory scale

The radiative forcing of the greenhouse gases has been studied being based on computational simulations or the observation of the real atmosphere meteorologically. In order to know the greenhouse effect more deeply and to study it from various viewpoints, the study on it in a laboratory scale is important. We have developed a direct measurement system for the infrared back radiation from the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) gas. The system configuration is similar with that of the practical earth-atmosphere-space system. Using this system, the back radiation from the CO{sub 2} gas was directly measured in a laboratory scale, which roughly coincides with meteorologically predicted value.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Marginal Damage Costs of Different Greenhouse Gases: An Application of FUND

We use FUND 3.8 to estimate the social cost of four greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and sulphur hexafluoride emissions. The damage potential for each gas—the ratio of the social cost of the non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas to the social cost of carbon dioxide—is also estimated. The damage potentials are compared to several metrics, focusing in particular on the global warming potentials, which are frequently used to measure the trade-off between gases in the form of carbon dioxide equivalents. We find that damage potentials could be significantly higher than global warming potentials. This finding implies that previous papers have underestimated the relative importance of reducing non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions from an economic damage perspective. We show results for a range of sensitivity analyses: carbon dioxide fertilization on agriculture productivity, terrestrial feedbacks, climate sensitivity, discounting, equity weighting, and socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. The sensitivity of the results to carbon dioxide fertilization is a primary focus as it is an important element of climate change that has not been considered in much of the previous literature. We estimate that carbon dioxide fertilization has a large positive impact that reduces the social cost of carbon dioxide with a much smaller effect on the other greenhouse gases. As a result, our estimates of the damage potentials of methane and nitrous oxide are much higher compared to estimates that ignore carbon dioxide fertilization. As a result, our base estimates of the damage potential for methane and nitrous oxide that include carbon dioxide fertilization are twice their respective global warming potentials. Our base estimate of the damage potential of sulphur hexafluoride is similar to the one previous estimate, both almost three times the global warming potential.

climate change, social cost, carbon dioxide, metha↗

Observations of greenhouse gases as climate indicators

Humans have significantly altered the energy balance of the Earth’s climate system mainly not only by extracting and burning fossil fuels but also by altering the biosphere and using halocarbons. The 3rd US National Climate Assessment pointed to a need for a system of indicators of climate and global change based on long-term data that could be used to support assessments and this led to the development of the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). Here we identify a representative set of key atmospheric indicators of changes in atmospheric radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs), and we evaluate atmospheric composition measurements, including non-CO<:sub>2 GHGs for use as climate change indicators in support of the US National Climate Assessment. GHG abundances and their changes over time can provide valuable information on the success of climate mitigation policies, as well as insights into possible carbon-climate feedback processes that may ultimately affect the success of those policies. To ensure that reliable information for assessing GHG emission changes can be provided on policy-relevant scales, expanded observational efforts are needed. Furthermore, the ability to detect trends resulting from changing emissions requires a commitment to supporting long-term observations. Long-term measurements of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and clouds and related climate indicators used with a dimming/brightening index could provide a foundation for quantifying forcing and its attribution and reducing error in existing indicators that do not account for complicated cloud processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Update of Emission Factors of Greenhouse Gases and Criteria Air Pollutants, and Generation Efficiencies of the U.S. Electricity Generation Sector

The last decade has seen a steady evolution of the electricity generation sector. Fuels used for electricity generation have shifted from coal to cleaner energy sources such as natural gas and renewables including solar, wind, and other renewable sources. The share of U.S. electricity generated from coal decreased from 45% in 2010 to 24% in 2019, and is expected to decrease further to 13% by 2050. The conversion efficiency of electricity generation has also increased gradually for fuels such as natural gas due as less-efficient old generators are retired and more-efficient generators replace them. These changes in the electricity generation industry are likely to cause changes in the emissions from power generation units. Emission factors of greenhouse gases (GHG) including CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O, and criteria air pollutants (CAPs) including CO, NO x , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , and SO x , from power plants are important parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with vehicle electrification, energy systems, and the production of materials and chemicals. The electricity generation technologies and associated emission factors in the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model need to be updated to reflect recent developments in the electricity generation sector. The most recent update of the electricity generation emission factors in GREET adopted a mixed method. The emission factors of CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x , and SOx were estimated using a “topdown” approach by dividing the total emissions by the total net electricity generation, because emission data of these pollutants are readily available in the Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID). For other CAPs such as CO, VOC, PM 10 , and PM 2.5 , emission data were not reported in eGRID. A “bottom-up” method was used to estimate the emission factors for these pollutants by considering generic uncontrolled emission factors and the pollutant removal efficiencies of emission control technologies adopted in the electricity generation sector. However, the uncontrolled emission factors and the emission removal efficiencies of various emission control technologies considered in the 2012 study came from the legacy AP-42 emission factors, and may not reflect the actual emission performances of the electricity generation sector of today. To leverage new data that recently became available, especially emission data measured from continuous emission monitoring systems (CEMS), we developed a new “top-down” approach to estimate efficiencies and GHG and CAP emission factors for electricity generation from combustion of individual fuel types by individual combustion technologies on the basis of power-generation data from U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) form EIA-923, and plant emission data from Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) dataset and National Emissions Inventory (NEI) dataset. Detailed discussion of the method and data used in this study can be found in Section 2.1. With this topdown approach, we aim to improve the estimates of energy efficiencies and emission factors for power plants using a more consistent methodology, and to update the emission factors, generation efficiencies, and generation technologies mixes in GREET to reflect recent technology advancements in the electricity generation sector.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Analysis of potential for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in municipal solid waste in Brazil, in the state and city of Rio de Janeiro

Highlights: ► We constructed future scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases in waste. ► Was used the IPCC methodology for calculating emission inventories. ► We calculated the costs of abatement for emissions reduction in landfill waste. ► The results were compared to Brazil, state and city of Rio de Janeiro. ► The higher the environmental passive, the greater the possibility of use of biogas. - Abstract: This paper examines potential changes in solid waste policies for the reduction in GHG for the country of Brazil and one of its major states and cities, Rio de Janeiro, from 2005 to 2030. To examine these policy options, trends in solid waste quantities and associated GHG emissions are derived. Three alternative policy scenarios are evaluated in terms of effectiveness, technology, and economics and conclusions posited regarding optimal strategies for Brazil to implement. These scenarios are been building on the guidelines for national inventories of GHG emissions (IPCC, 2006) and adapted to Brazilian states and municipalities’ boundaries. Based on the results, it is possible to say that the potential revenue from products of solid waste management is more than sufficient to transform the current scenario in this country into one of financial and environmental gains, where the negative impacts of climate change have created a huge opportunity to expand infrastructure for waste management.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Distilling the Evolving Contributions of Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases to Large‐Scale Low‐Frequency Surface Ocean Changes Over the Past Century

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols (AER) and greenhouse gases (GHG)—the leading drivers of the forced historical change—produce different large‐scale climate response patterns, with correlations trending from negative to positive over the past century. To understand what caused the time‐evolving comparison between GHG and AER response patterns, we apply a low‐frequency component analysis to historical surface ocean changes from CESM1 single‐forcing large‐ensemble simulations. While GHG response is characterized by its first leading mode, AER response consists of two distinct modes. The first one, featuring long‐term global AER increase and global cooling, opposes GHG response patterns up to the mid‐twentieth century. The second one, featuring multidecadal variations in AER distributions and interhemispheric asymmetric surface ocean changes, appears to reinforce the GHG warming effect over recent decades. AER thus can have both competing and synergistic effects with GHG as their emissions change temporally and spatially.

Dong, Yue↗

Effects of autumn diurnal freeze–thaw cycles on soil bacteria and greenhouse gases in the permafrost regions

Understanding the impacts of diurnal freeze–thaw cycles (DFTCs) on soil microorganisms and greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for assessing soil carbon and nitrogen cycles in the alpine ecosystems. However, relevant studies in the permafrost regions in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) are still lacking. In this study, we used high-throughput pyrosequencing and static chamber-gas chromatogram to study the changes in topsoil bacteria and fluxes of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O), during autumn DFTCs in the permafrost regions of the Shule River headwaters on the western part of Qilian Mountains, northeast margin of the QTP. The results showed that the bacterial communities contained a total of 35 phyla, 88 classes, 128 orders, 153 families, 176 genera, and 113 species. The dominant phyla were Proteobacteria , Acidobacteria , Actinobacteria , Chloroflexi , and Gemmatimonadetes . Two DFTCs led to a trend of increasing bacterial diversity and significant changes in the relative abundance of 17 known bacteria at the family, genus, and species levels. These were predominantly influenced by soil temperature, water content, and salinity. In addition, CO 2 flux significantly increased while CH 4 flux distinctly decreased, and N 2 O flux tended to increase after two DFTCs, with soil bacteria being the primary affecting variable. This study can provide a scientific insight into the impact of climate change on biogeochemical cycles of the QTP.

Lv, Zhenying↗

Comment on "Radiative forcings for 28 potential Archean greenhouse gases" by Byrne and Goldblatt (2014)

In the recent article by Byrne and Goldblatt, "Radiative forcing for 28 potential Archean greenhouse gases", Clim. Past. 10, 1779–1801 (2014), the authors employ the HITRAN2012 spectroscopic database to evaluate the radiative forcing of 28 Archean gases. As part of the evaluation of the status of the spectroscopy of these gases in the selected spectral region (50–1800 cm -1 ), the cross sections generated from the HITRAN line-by-line parameters were compared with those of the PNNL database of experimental cross sections recorded at moderate resolution. The authors claimed that for NO 2 , HNO 3 , H 2 CO, H 2 O 2 , HCOOH, C 2 H 4 , CH 3 OH and CH 3 Br there exist large or sometimes severe disagreements between the databases. In this work we show that for only three of these eight gases a modest discrepancy does exist between the two databases and we explain the origin of the differences. For the other five gases, the disagreements are not nearly at the scale suggested by the authors, while we explain some of the differences that do exist. In summary, the agreement between the HITRAN and PNNL databases is very good, although not perfect. Typically differences do not exceed 10 %, provided that HITRAN data exist for the bands/wavelengths of interest. It appears that a molecule-dependent combination of errors has affected the conclusions of the authors. In at least one case it appears that they did not take the correct file from PNNL (N 2 O 4 (dimer)+ NO 2 was used in place of the monomer). Finally, cross sections of HO 2 from HITRAN (which do not have a PNNL counterpart) were not calculated correctly in BG, while in the case of HF misleading discussion was presented there based on the confusion by foreign or noise features in the experimental PNNL spectra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Greenhouse gases emissions accounting for typical sewage sludge digestion with energy utilization and residue land application in China

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer GHGs emissions from sludge digestion + residue land use in China were calculated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The AD unit contributes more than 97% of total biogenic GHGs emissions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer AD with methane recovery is attractive for sludge GHGs emissions reduction. - Abstract: About 20 million tonnes of sludge (with 80% moisture content) is discharged by the sewage treatment plants per year in China, which, if not treated properly, can be a significant source of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Anaerobic digestion is a conventional sewage sludge treatment method and will continue to be one of the main technologies in the following years. This research has taken into consideration GHGs emissions from typical processes of sludge thickening + anaerobic digestion + dewatering + residue land application in China. Fossil CO{sub 2}, biogenic CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4,} and avoided CO{sub 2} as the main objects is discussed respectively. The results show that the total CO{sub 2}-eq is about 1133 kg/t DM (including the biogenic CO{sub 2}), while the net CO{sub 2}-eq is about 372 kg/t DM (excluding the biogenic CO{sub 2}). An anaerobic digestion unit as the main GHGs emission source occupies more than 91% CO{sub 2}-eq of the whole process. The use of biogas is important for achieving carbon dioxide emission reductions, which could reach about 24% of the total CO{sub 2}-eq reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Emissions of ammonia and greenhouse gases during combined pre-composting and vermicomposting of duck manure

Highlights: • Earthworms significantly decreased emissions of N{sub 2}O and CH{sub 4}, but had a marginal effect on CO{sub 2} emission. • NH{sub 3}, N{sub 2}O, and CH{sub 4} emissions were significantly reduced by reed straw and zeolite, CO{sub 2} emission was increased by reed straw. • Combined pre-composting and vermicomposting with reed straw and zeolite would be recommended for disposal of duck manure. - Abstract: Combined pre-composting and vermicomposting has shown potential for reclamation of solid wastes, which is a significant source of ammonia (NH{sub 3}), and greenhouse gases (GHG), including nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), methane (CH{sub 4}), and carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}). Earthworms and amendments may both affect physico-chemical characteristics that control gas-producing processes, and thus affect NH{sub 3} and GHG emissions. Here, we used two-way ANOVA to test the effects of addition of reed straw and combined addition of reed straw and zeolite on NH{sub 3} and GHG emissions during pre-composting of duck manure, either with or without a follow-up phase of vermicomposting. Results showed that cumulative N{sub 2}O, CH{sub 4}, and CO{sub 2} emissions during pre-composting and vermicomposting ranged from 92.8, 5.8, and 260.6 mg kg{sup −1} DM to 274.2, 30.4, and 314.0 mg kg{sup −1} DM, respectively. Earthworms and amendments significantly decreased N{sub 2}O and CH{sub 4} emissions. Emission of CO{sub 2} was not affected by earthworms, but increased in responses to addition of reed straw. Cumulative NH{sub 3} emission ranged from 3.0 to 8.1 g kg{sup −1} DM, and was significantly decreased by reed straw and zeolite addition. In conclusion, combined pre-composting and vermicomposting with reed straw and zeolite addition would be strongly recommended in mitigating emissions of N{sub 2}O, CH{sub 4}, and NH{sub 3} from duck manure. Moreover, this method also provides nutrient-rich products that can be used as a fertilizer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In-Situ Microbial Conversion of Sequestered Greenhouse Gases

The objectives of the project are to use microbiological in situ bioconversion technology to convert sequestered or naturally-occurring greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide, into methane and other useful organic compounds. The key factors affecting coal bioconversion identified in this research include (1) coal properties, (2) thermal maturation and coalification process, (3) microbial population dynamics, (4) hydrodynamics (5) reservoir conditions, and (6) the methodology of getting the nutrients into the coal seams. While nearly all cultures produced methane, we were unable to confirm sustained methane production from the enrichments. We believe that the methane generation may have been derived from readily metabolized organic matter in the coal samples and/or biosoluble organic material in the coal formation water. This raises the intriguing possibility that pretreatment of the coal in the subsurface to bioactivate the coal prior to the injection of microbes and nutrients might be possible. We determined that it would be more cost effective to inject nutrients into coal seams to stimulate indigenous microbes in the coal seams, than to grow microbes in fermentation vats and transport them to the well site. If the coal bioconversion process can be developed on a larger scale, then the cost to generate methane could be less than $1 per Mcf.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Deep mitigation of CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO 2 and non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO 2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO 2 and non-CO 2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO 2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO 2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO 2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO 2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO 2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO 2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO 2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗