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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗
NASA NTRS2018

Learning Model Structural Uncertainty with Gaussian Processes

The advent of commercially available quantum computers has marked the beginning of quantum computing as a reality. Both quantum gate and annealing computers have been released by major computer hardware companies. In this work, the D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealing computer housed at the NASA Advanced Systems computational facility is investigated to accelerate Machine Learning (ML) for image registration. NASA collects large amounts of images over the globe remotely using space-based monitoring. Images of a fixed areas of the land surface are taken over time. Due to the orbit of the sensors, the viewing angles deviate slightly, and it is necessary to align or register the images precisely to create image time series over the land surface. Unaligned images can lead to substantial analysis errors. These time-series are then used in modeling Earth Systems models such as hydrological, weather, and carbon monitoring models. In this work, we consider the Moderate Resolution Image Spectrometer (MODIS) data collected by the NASA's terra satellite. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is a natural fit for ML modelling of images. Several successes have been reported using machine learning related to image processing. We investigate the use of ML to register MODIS images. ANNs are investigated in combination with a Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) as an auto-encoder. We will present results showing the accuracy and efficiency of this approach.The D-Wave 2XTM quantum annealer samples the ground-state wave-function of a spin-Ising systems with quadratic interactions between qubits and a Chimera connectivity. The system sits in a ~15 mK thermal bath. One can think of the system as being placed in the ground state initially and subject to thermal excitations governed by Boltzmann statistics. If this is assumed true, one can use the statistics from the D-Wave 2XTM to train RBMs. Generating statistics for training Boltzmann machines is an NP-hard problem and constitutes the largest compute cost. We investigate the use of the D-Wave 2XTM to accelerate the training of the RBMs in our ANNs and report on the results.

Kouatchou, Jules↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sampling Functions from Gaussian Processes and Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks

When learning aerodynamic models from data, it is critical to incorporate estimates of model uncertainty. This motivates the design of probabilistic aerodynamic databases which can be sampled to generate physically and statistically plausible aerodynamic models. In this talk we discuss how to sample deterministic functions from two different kinds of probabilistic models and demonstrate their use. First, Gaussian Process Regressors (GPRs) are a widely used probabilistic kernel-based model which can be thought of as Gaussian distributions over functions. GPRs are generally trained by maximizing the marginal likelihood of seeing the training data over the kernel parameter space. Sample functions are easily generated by drawing points from the Gaussian distribution at desired input points. However, when the points are not known ahead of time, the classical sampling approach is not possible since successive function samples will generate different function realizations. We present an approach for sampling consistent function evaluations from a GPR over multiple samples. Second, we describe a neural network architecture which learns a conditional Gaussian distribution by maximizing the marginal likelihood at each point in the input space. We then discuss and compare several options for generating sample functions which match this distribution. Finally, we demonstrate the use of these probabilistic aerodynamic models in an atmospheric reentry simulation.

Gaussian process regression↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Gaussian Process Enhancement to Linear Parameter Varying Models

Simulation and analysis for modern engineering systems now routinely requires the merging of multiple disciplines, physical-domains, time-scales, and data sets — all at ever increasing levels. These capabilities are especially needed in the domain of Advanced Air Mobility, where rapidly emerging vehicle designs are significantly more complex, while having to be both cost-effective and safe. To meet these engineering challenges, machine learning methods are an attractive option for merging models and data across multiple areas while providing uncertainty quantification and maintaining computational efficiency. This paper examines the use of Gaussian process machine learning to generalize and enhance the commonly used class of quasi-Linear Parameter Varying models for fast full-envelope simulation while also supporting control system design and analysis with model uncertainty. Gaussian process machine learning is selected because it: can fuse multiple data sets, enables an easy trade-off between data fitting and smoothing, provides model uncertainty quantification, scales well with increasing complexity, and does not generally require starting from a large training data set. To demonstrate the benefits of the approach, a robust stability analysis with Gaussian process uncertainty is shown for a NASA reference design of an electric quad-rotor air-taxi concept vehicle with motor parameter uncertainty.

Gaussian Process↗
NASA NTRS2012

Adaptive Sampling of Time Series During Remote Exploration

This work deals with the challenge of online adaptive data collection in a time series. A remote sensor or explorer agent adapts its rate of data collection in order to track anomalous events while obeying constraints on time and power. This problem is challenging because the agent has limited visibility (all its datapoints lie in the past) and limited control (it can only decide when to collect its next datapoint). This problem is treated from an information-theoretic perspective, fitting a probabilistic model to collected data and optimizing the future sampling strategy to maximize information gain. The performance characteristics of stationary and nonstationary Gaussian process models are compared. Self-throttling sensors could benefit environmental sensor networks and monitoring as well as robotic exploration. Explorer agents can improve performance by adjusting their data collection rate, preserving scarce power or bandwidth resources during uninteresting times while fully covering anomalous events of interest. For example, a remote earthquake sensor could conserve power by limiting its measurements during normal conditions and increasing its cadence during rare earthquake events. A similar capability could improve sensor platforms traversing a fixed trajectory, such as an exploration rover transect or a deep space flyby. These agents can adapt observation times to improve sample coverage during moments of rapid change. An adaptive sampling approach couples sensor autonomy, instrument interpretation, and sampling. The challenge is addressed as an active learning problem, which already has extensive theoretical treatment in the statistics and machine learning literature. A statistical Gaussian process (GP) model is employed to guide sample decisions that maximize information gain. Nonsta tion - ary (e.g., time-varying) covariance relationships permit the system to represent and track local anomalies, in contrast with current GP approaches. Most common GP models are stationary, e.g., the covariance relationships are time-invariant. In such cases, information gain is independent of previously collected data, and the optimal solution can always be computed in advance. Information-optimal sampling of a stationary GP time series thus reduces to even spacing, and such models are not appropriate for tracking localized anomalies. Additionally, GP model inference can be computationally expensive.

Thompson, David R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adaptive Learning for Reliability Analysis using Support Vector Machines

A novel algorithm is presented for adaptive learning of an unknown function that separates two regions of a domain.In the context of reliability analysis these two regions represent the failure domain, where a set of constraints or requirements are violated, and a safe domain where they are satisfied. The Limit State Function (LSF) separates these two regions. Evaluating the constraints for a given parameter point requires the evaluation of a computational model that may well be expensive. For this reason we wish to construct a meta-model that can estimate the LSFas accurately as possible, using only a limited amount of training data. This work presents an adaptive strategy employing a Support Vector Machine (SVM) as a meta-model to provide a semi-algebraic approximation of the LSF.We describe an optimization process that is used to select informative parameter points to add to training data at each iteration to improve the accuracy of this approximation. A formulation is introduced for bounding the predictions of the meta-model; in this way we seek to incorporate this aspect of Gaussian Process Models (GPMs) within anSVM meta-model. Finally, we apply our algorithm to two benchmark test cases, demonstrating performance that is comparable with, if not superior, to a standard technique for reliability analysis that employs GPMs

Adaptive learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Classification of Biosignature Information using Multiple Instrument Observations

The accurate identification of biosignatures (indications of life) from data taken from remote or in situ planetary exploration is one of the most important challenges in astrobiology, the interdisciplinary field examining habitability and the potential for extraterrestrial life. This study employs machine learning algorithms to optimize the identification of biosignatures, with an emphasis on those which are agnostic to a specific biochemical basis. We exploit the wealth of terrestrial data available from biogenic and abiogenic systems to enhance efficient feature prioritization. Our dataset, pulled from public databases and laboratory recorded measurements, includes elemental abundance, isotopic fractionation, and VNIR/Raman spectra The data curation process included standardization for detection limits and ranges. Subsequent feature extraction yielded detailed inputs for machine learning, including combinations of elemental content, isotopic ratios, and parameters of spectral peaks and troughs. Feature significance was evaluated across diverse machine learning methodologies, such as k-nearest neighbors, logistic regression, Random Forest, support vector machines, and Gaussian Naïve Bayes, along with a combined voting classifier. We utilized Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) across 2,000 50% test-train splits as a robust metric of model performance. Results revealed a promising ROC AUC of 0.853 for the combined voting classifier. Removing elemental abundance data notably reduced model accuracy (13% decrease in AUC), highlighting its critical role in biosignature detection. Several other individual data features exhibited significance within their respective data types, offering additional granularity. This research fortifies the relevance of machine learning to astrobiology, potentially enhancing life detection missions by allowing algorithmic prioritization of high-interest samples for further investigation. Future work will refine data standardization, expand the dataset to include more terrestrial systems, and incorporate convolutional neural networks for spectral feature extraction. The potential for public data sharing is also under exploration, reinforcing our commitment to collective scientific advancement.

Statistical↗
NASA NTRS2000

Condition Monitoring for Helicopter Data

In this paper the classical "Westland" set of empirical accelerometer helicopter data is analyzed with the aim of condition monitoring for diagnostic purposes. The goal is to determine features for failure events from these data, via a proprietary signal processing toolbox, and to weigh these according to a variety of classification algorithms. As regards signal processing, it appears that the autoregressive (AR) coefficients from a simple linear model encapsulate a great deal of information in a relatively few measurements; it has also been found that augmentation of these by harmonic and other parameters can improve classification significantly. As regards classification, several techniques have been explored, among these restricted Coulomb energy (RCE) networks, learning vector quantization (LVQ), Gaussian mixture classifiers and decision trees. A problem with these approaches, and in common with many classification paradigms, is that augmentation of the feature dimension can degrade classification ability. Thus, we also introduce the Bayesian data reduction algorithm (BDRA), which imposes a Dirichlet prior on training data and is thus able to quantify probability of error in an exact manner, such that features may be discarded or coarsened appropriately.

Wen, Fang↗
NASA NTRS2026

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Discriminative Methodology using the Unscented Transform in Special Euclidean Group SE(3) for Autonomous GN&C

Kalman filtering techniques usually compare a known dynamic model with some process noise to an updated, noisy measurement. Both sources of noise are generally assumed to be Gaussian and are filtered to obtain a more accurate estimate of the state of the system of interest. However, these methods assume that a relatively accurate dynamical model already exists. By including discriminative methodology to interpret differences in the predictive model and the measured states over time, an incorrect model can be corrected overtime, allowing a spacecraft to learn about its environment and adapt to changing conditions. In this paper, a discriminative unscented Kalman filter (DUKF) is introduced on the special Euclidean group SE(3) formulation framework. A spacecraft is initialized near a small body with no knowledge of its parameters, and using several consecutive conditional models the environment is studied and the filter is updated. The case study of a spacecraft in a slightly elliptical, inclined, relatively tight orbit around the irregular moon Phobos is simulated and discussed. The accuracy of this approach is quantifying the differences between the true state, the UKF with a poor model, and the DUKF.

GN&C↗
NASA NTRS1994

From neural-based object recognition toward microelectronic eyes

Engineering neural network systems are best known for their abilities to adapt to the changing characteristics of the surrounding environment by adjusting system parameter values during the learning process. Rapid advances in analog current-mode design techniques have made possible the implementation of major neural network functions in custom VLSI chips. An electrically programmable analog synapse cell with large dynamic range can be realized in a compact silicon area. New designs of the synapse cells, neurons, and analog processor are presented. A synapse cell based on Gilbert multiplier structure can perform the linear multiplication for back-propagation networks. A double differential-pair synapse cell can perform the Gaussian function for radial-basis network. The synapse cells can be biased in the strong inversion region for high-speed operation or biased in the subthreshold region for low-power operation. The voltage gain of the sigmoid-function neurons is externally adjustable which greatly facilitates the search of optimal solutions in certain networks. Various building blocks can be intelligently connected to form useful industrial applications. Efficient data communication is a key system-level design issue for large-scale networks. We also present analog neural processors based on perceptron architecture and Hopfield network for communication applications. Biologically inspired neural networks have played an important role towards the creation of powerful intelligent machines. Accuracy, limitations, and prospects of analog current-mode design of the biologically inspired vision processing chips and cellular neural network chips are key design issues.

Sheu, Bing J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

Statistics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PM 2.5 Concentrations over Major Metropolitan Regions Inferred from Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar Measurements Using Machine Learning Regression

We use measurements of near-surface aerosol backscatter, extinction, and depolarization acquired by four NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidars (HSRLs) to develop a machine learning regression methodology to infer PM2.5 concentrations at the surface and aloft. These airborne HSRL measurements were acquired over major metropolitan regions in the United States and Asia during more than 170 flights since 2010. Hourly surface PM2.5 measurements from the EPA air quality system and similar networks in other countries acquired within 10 km and 15 minutes of these near-surface HSRL measurements are used to train models that compute PM2.5 concentrations from the HSRL measurements. We examine several regression methods and find that exponential Gaussian Process algorithms consistently give the best performance in terms of the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) errors and the highest correlations. Model performance varies significantly depending on various combinations of HSRL aerosol measurements (e.g., aerosol backscatter, extinction, depolarization, backscatter color ratios, lidar ratios, aerosol optical thickness) and retrievals (e.g., mixed layer height, aerosol type) used in the regressions. Models that use near-surface measurements of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties such as depolarization, backscatter color ratio, and lidar ratio typically give the best performance with RMS errors around 4 mg/m3 and correlation coefficients above 0.9. HSRL measurements were often acquired when the aircraft flew systematic “raster-scan” patterns for several hours over these cities. These flight patterns enabled measurements of the spatial, temporal, and vertical variabilities in the distributions of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties and allowed us to derive the corresponding variabilities in PM2.5 concentrations. We present examples of such variabilities over urban areas in the United States as well as Asia. We describe also how the distribution of surface PM2.5 varies with aerosol type and use these retrievals to examine model simulations of surface PM2.5 in these metropolitan regions. We also discuss how this methodology may be applied to measurements from satellite lidars such as CALIOP on CALIPSO and ATLID on EarthCARE.

lidar↗
NASA NTRS2012

Can Selforganizing Maps Accurately Predict Photometric Redshifts?

We present an unsupervised machine-learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization called the self-organizing-map (SOM) approach. A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's main galaxy sample, luminous red galaxy, and quasar samples, along with the PHAT0 data set from the Photo-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches, such as artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression. SOM RMSE results (using delta(z) = z(sub phot) - z(sub spec)) are 0.023 for the main galaxy sample, 0.027 for the luminous red galaxy sample, 0.418 for quasars, and 0.022 for PHAT0 synthetic data. The results demonstrate that there are nonunique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods

Way, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Initial Kernel Timing Using a Simple PIM Performance Model

This presentation will describe some initial results of paper-and-pencil studies of 4 or 5 application kernels applied to a processor-in-memory (PIM) system roughly similar to the Cascade Lightweight Processor (LWP). The application kernels are: * Linked list traversal * Sun of leaf nodes on a tree * Bitonic sort * Vector sum * Gaussian elimination The intent of this work is to guide and validate work on the Cascade project in the areas of compilers, simulators, and languages. We will first discuss the generic PIM structure. Then, we will explain the concepts needed to program a parallel PIM system (locality, threads, parcels). Next, we will present a simple PIM performance model that will be used in the remainder of the presentation. For each kernel, we will then present a set of codes, including codes for a single PIM node, and codes for multiple PIM nodes that move data to threads and move threads to data. These codes are written at a fairly low level, between assembly and C, but much closer to C than to assembly. For each code, we will present some hand-drafted timing forecasts, based on the simple PIM performance model. Finally, we will conclude by discussing what we have learned from this work, including what programming styles seem to work best, from the point-of-view of both expressiveness and performance.

BRIEFING CHARTS↗