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Results for “Generalized Pareto Distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

MERRA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detecting Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Change From Nonlinear Baseflow Recession

We report permafrost underlies about one fifth of the global land area and affects ground stability, freshwater runoff, soil chemistry, and surface-atmosphere gas exchange. The depth of thawed ground overlying permafrost (active layer thickness) has broadly increased across the Arctic in recent decades, coincident with a period of increased streamflow, especially the lowest flows (baseflow). Mechanistic links between active layer thickness and baseflow have recently been explored using linear reservoir theory, but most watersheds behave as nonlinear reservoirs. We derive theoretical nonlinear relationships between long-term average saturated soil thickness $\bar{η}$(proxy for active layer thickness) and long-term average baseflow. When applied to 38 years of daily streamflow data for the Kuparuk River basin on the North Slope of Alaska, the theory predicts $\bar{η}$ increased 0.17 ± 0.22[2σ] cm a -1 between 1983 and 2020 (6.4 ± cm total). The rate of increase nearly doubled to 0.29 ± 0.31 cm a -1 between 1990 and 2020, during which time local field measurements from Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites indicate the active layer increased 0.31 ± 0.22 cm a -1 . The predicted rate of increase more than doubled again between 2002 and 2020, outpacing a near doubling of observed active layer thickening, consistent with trends in terrestrial water storage inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite gravimetry and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications climate reanalysis. Overall, hydrologic change is accelerating in the Kuparuk River basin, and we provide a theoretical framework for estimating basin-scale changes in active layer water storage from streamflow measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Algorithm 1028: VTMOP: Solver for Blackbox Multiobjective Optimization Problems

VTMOP is a Fortran 2008 software package containing two Fortran modules for solving computationally expensive bound-constrained blackbox multiobjective optimization problems. VTMOP implements the algorithm of [32], which handles two or more objectives, does not require any derivatives, and produces well-distributed points over the Pareto front. The first module contains a general framework for solving multiobjective optimization problems by combining response surface methodology, trust region methodology, and an adaptive weighting scheme. The second module features a driver subroutine that implements this framework when the objective functions can be wrapped as a Fortran subroutine. Lastly, support is provided for both serial and parallel execution paradigms, and VTMOP is demonstrated on several test problems as well as one real-world problem in the area of particle accelerator optimization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning enables generation of molecules that advance the known Pareto front

Although generative models hold promise for discovering molecules with optimized desired properties, they often fail to suggest synthesizable molecules that improve upon the properties of the structures represented in the training distribution. We find that this limitation arises not only from the molecule generation process itself, but also from the poor generalization capabilities of molecular property predictors. We address this challenge by creating a closed-loop molecule generation pipeline with iterative retraining on new quantum chemical simulation data. Compared against static, single-pass generative modeling approaches, only our closed-loop iterative workflow generates molecules with properties extending beyond the training distribution (up to 0.44 standard deviations beyond the original range) and achieves a 79% improvement in out-of-distribution molecule classification accuracy. Furthermore, by conditioning molecular generation on thermodynamic stability data obtained during the iterative loop, the proportion of stable and hence potentially synthesizable molecules generated is 3.5x higher than the next-best model.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tula: Optimizing Time, Cost, and Generalization in Distributed Large-Batch Training

Distributed training increases the number of batches processed per iteration either by scaling-out (adding more nodes) or scaling-up (increasing the batch-size). However, the largest configuration does not necessarily yield the best performance. Horizontal scaling introduces additional communication overhead, while vertical scaling is constrained by computation cost and device memory limits. Thus, simply increasing the batch-size leads to diminishing returns: training time and cost decrease initially but eventually plateaus, creating a knee-point in the time/cost vs. batch-size pareto curve. The optimal batch-size therefore depends on the underlying model, data and available compute resources. Large batches also suffer from worse model quality due to the well-known “generalization gap”. In this paper, we present Tula, an online service that automatically optimizes time, cost, and convergence quality for large-batch training of convolutional models. It combines parallel-systems modeling with statistical performance prediction to identify the optimal batchsize. Tula predicts training time and cost within 7.5−14% error across multiple models, and achieves up to 20× overall speedup and improves test accuracy by ≈9% on average over standard large-batch training on various vision tasks, thus successfully mitigating the generalization gap and accelerating training at the same time.

Tyagi, Sahil [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000783144745)↗
NASA NTRS2017

Security Vulnerability Profiles of NASA Mission Software: Empirical Analysis of Security Related Bug Reports

NASA develops, runs, and maintains software systems for which security is of vital importance. Therefore, it is becoming an imperative to develop secure systems and extend the current software assurance capabilities to cover information assurance and cybersecurity concerns of NASA missions. The results presented in this report are based on the information provided in the issue tracking systems of one ground mission and one flight mission. The extracted data were used to create three datasets: Ground mission IVV issues, Flight mission IVV issues, and Flight mission Developers issues. In each dataset, we identified the software bugs that are security related and classified them in specific security classes. This information was then used to create the security vulnerability profiles (i.e., to determine how, why, where, and when the security vulnerabilities were introduced) and explore the existence of common trends. The main findings of our work include:- Code related security issues dominated both the Ground and Flight mission IVV security issues, with 95 and 92, respectively. Therefore, enforcing secure coding practices and verification and validation focused on coding errors would be cost effective ways to improve mission's security. (Flight mission Developers issues dataset did not contain data in the Issue Category.)- In both the Ground and Flight mission IVV issues datasets, the majority of security issues (i.e., 91 and 85, respectively) were introduced in the Implementation phase. In most cases, the phase in which the issues were found was the same as the phase in which they were introduced. The most security related issues of the Flight mission Developers issues dataset were found during Code Implementation, Build Integration, and Build Verification; the data on the phase in which these issues were introduced were not available for this dataset.- The location of security related issues, as the location of software issues in general, followed the Pareto principle. Specifically, for all three datasets, from 86 to 88 the security related issues were located in two to four subsystems.- The severity levels of most security issues were moderate, in all three datasets.- Out of 21 primary security classes, five dominated: Exception Management, Memory Access, Other, Risky Values, and Unused Entities. Together, these classes contributed from around 80 to 90 of all security issues in each dataset. This again proves the Pareto principle of uneven distribution of security issues, in this case across CWE classes, and supports the fact that addressing these dominant security classes provides the most cost efficient way to improve missions' security. The findings presented in this report uncovered the security vulnerability profiles and identified the common trends and dominant classes of security issues, which in turn can be used to select the most efficient secure design and coding best practices compiled by the part of the SARP project team associated with the NASA's Johnson Space Center. In addition, these findings provide valuable input to the NASA IVV initiative aimed at identification of the two 25 CWEs of ground and flight missions.

vulnerability↗
NASA NTRS2003

Applicability of Markets to Global Scheduling in Grids: Critical Examination of General Equilibrium Theory and Market Folklore

Markets are often considered superior to other global scheduling mechanisms for distributed computing systems. This claim is supported by: a casual observation from our every-day life that markets successfully equilibrate supply and demand, and the features of markets which originate in the general equilibrium theory, e.g., efficiency and the lack of necessity of 2 central controller. This paper describes why such beliefs in markets are not warranted. It does so by examining the general equilibrium theory, in terms of scope, abstraction, and interpretation. Not only does the general equilibrium theory fail to provide a satisfactory explanation of actual economies, including a computing-resource economy, it also falls short of supplying theoretical foundations for commonly held views of market desirability. This paper also points out that the argument for the desirability of markets involves circular reasoning and that the desirability can be established only vis-a-vis a scheduling goal. Finally, recasting the conclusion of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem as that for global scheduling, we conclude that there exists no market-based scheduler that is rational (in the sense defined in microeconomic theory), takes into account utility of more than one user, and yet yields a Pareto-optimal outcome for arbitrary user utility functions.

Nakai, Junko↗
NASA NTRS2006

Single- and Multiple-Objective Optimization with Differential Evolution and Neural Networks

Genetic and evolutionary algorithms have been applied to solve numerous problems in engineering design where they have been used primarily as optimization procedures. These methods have an advantage over conventional gradient-based search procedures became they are capable of finding global optima of multi-modal functions and searching design spaces with disjoint feasible regions. They are also robust in the presence of noisy data. Another desirable feature of these methods is that they can efficiently use distributed and parallel computing resources since multiple function evaluations (flow simulations in aerodynamics design) can be performed simultaneously and independently on ultiple processors. For these reasons genetic and evolutionary algorithms are being used more frequently in design optimization. Examples include airfoil and wing design and compressor and turbine airfoil design. They are also finding increasing use in multiple-objective and multidisciplinary optimization. This lecture will focus on an evolutionary method that is a relatively new member to the general class of evolutionary methods called differential evolution (DE). This method is easy to use and program and it requires relatively few user-specified constants. These constants are easily determined for a wide class of problems. Fine-tuning the constants will off course yield the solution to the optimization problem at hand more rapidly. DE can be efficiently implemented on parallel computers and can be used for continuous, discrete and mixed discrete/continuous optimization problems. It does not require the objective function to be continuous and is noise tolerant. DE and applications to single and multiple-objective optimization will be included in the presentation and lecture notes. A method for aerodynamic design optimization that is based on neural networks will also be included as a part of this lecture. The method offers advantages over traditional optimization methods. It is more flexible than other methods in dealing with design in the context of both steady and unsteady flows, partial and complete data sets, combined experimental and numerical data, inclusion of various constraints and rules of thumb, and other issues that characterize the aerodynamic design process. Neural networks provide a natural framework within which a succession of numerical solutions of increasing fidelity, incorporating more realistic flow physics, can be represented and utilized for optimization. Neural networks also offer an excellent framework for multiple-objective and multi-disciplinary design optimization. Simulation tools from various disciplines can be integrated within this framework and rapid trade-off studies involving one or many disciplines can be performed. The prospect of combining neural network based optimization methods and evolutionary algorithms to obtain a hybrid method with the best properties of both methods will be included in this presentation. Achieving solution diversity and accurate convergence to the exact Pareto front in multiple objective optimization usually requires a significant computational effort with evolutionary algorithms. In this lecture we will also explore the possibility of using neural networks to obtain estimates of the Pareto optimal front using non-dominated solutions generated by DE as training data. Neural network estimators have the potential advantage of reducing the number of function evaluations required to obtain solution accuracy and diversity, thus reducing cost to design.

Rai, Man Mohan↗