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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Comparison of Likelihood Methods for Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 Data

Repeated measurement will be a feature of the survey data collected during the Quesst missionX-59 community response tests (CRT). Since each participant will report his or her categorical level of annoyance in response to multiple events, the responses from any single individual may be correlated with one another. Several models within the class of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) are pertinent to the analysis of correlated categorical outcomes; the random intercept logistic regression model is one example. Both Bayesian and frequentist methods for fitting these models are available, with frequentist methods relying on some form of approximation (of either an integral or the integrand) that appears in the marginal likelihood function. Given several anticipated similarities of the X-59 CRT data to data collected during a past risk reduction, Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 (QSF18), this short note is intended to create awareness. It documents an instance in which a reported population average dose-response relationship derived from QSF18 single event data was distorted by the integral approximation applied in likelihood-based methods. We review some of the available literature on the topic, compare the outputs of several different computational approaches implemented in available statistical software, and present simple corrective actions that may be useful during the Quesst mission.

dose-response model↗
NASA NTRS2015

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

Conjuction Assessment↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Developing Rationale for Experimental Designs Employed During Forthcoming NASA Quesst Mission Community Noise Campaigns

Since the publication of R.A. Fisher’s “The Arrangement of Field Experiments” in 1926, the enumerated principles that contributed to the improvement of agricultural field experiments in the early 20th century (randomization, replication, blocking, and appropriate variation of factors) remain hallmarks of all well-designed clinical trials and scientific endeavors in the 21st century. Beginning in 2026, NASA will conduct community noise campaigns with the first-of-kind X-59 experimental aircraft to 1) demonstrate the possibility of quiet supersonic flight over land and 2) to collect live data about annoyance (a categorical response) in relation to estimated noise levels (an experimental factor) produced by the new noise phenomenon, a low-noise “sonic thump”. The resulting predicted relationship between perceptual response and estimated noise level, e.g., mixed logistic regression or related models in the class of generalized linear (mixed) models, is believed to be a useful policy tool that domestic and international regulators can use when deciding whether existing prohibitions of supersonic flight over land can be replaced with a noise-based limit. The X-59 is engineered with the expectation that annoyance in the tested ranges should be a rare outcome, and, consequently, NASA convened an interdisciplinary team to examine and refine the rationale underlying the experimental design for future community campaigns. In this presentation, we review relevant literature on experiments with rare binary outcomes, relate the deliberations of the NASA team to tenets of good experimental design, and highlight several challenges and operational realities of this ambitious campaign.

Design of Experiments; blocking; randomization; co↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Considerations for the Design and Execution of NASA's Community Noise Surveys

The World Health Organization defines community noise as noise emitted from all sources apart from noise at an industrial workplace. Example sources include neighborhood and construction noise, noise from road and rail, and air traffic noise. In particular, overland supersonic flights have been banned in the United States since the 1970s based on data accumulated during the 1960s; the degree of reported annoyance from the resulting sonic booms was a key factor leading to the prohibition. In subsequent years, scientific and engineering understanding has led to the potential to produce low amplitude sonic booms, or ‘sonic thumps’, during supersonic flight through aircraft design choices. Aircraft manufacturers have expressed renewed interest in producing supersonic commercial aircraft, but without appropriate changes to regulation, only overseas routes can be traveled supersonically. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) will be flying the X-59 demonstrator aircraft in a series of community tests to begin in the 2024 fiscal year. In this presentation we provide some historical context for the current prohibitions on supersonic commercial flight. Using data collected during earlier NASA risk reduction tests, we demonstrate how generalized linear mixed models can be used to inform the functional dose-response response curve. Finally, we discuss some of the challenges in designing the future community studies and generalizing them to a nationally-representative dose-response curve. The study effort will be of national and international importance as the data and models prepared during the community tests will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in order to help noise regulators determine if supersonic flight will be permitted over land once again and at what demonstrable noise levels.

Nathan B Cruze↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Engineering Toward Commercial Supersonic Flight: NASA's Quesst Mission

NASA’s Quesst Mission has dual goals of demonstrating low-noise supersonic technology in flight and surveying public reactions to low-noise supersonic overflight. For half a century, commercial aircraft have been required to fly slower than the speed of sound over land to prevent “creating an unacceptable situation” on the ground due to sonic booms. However, aircraft shaping techniques honed through decades of research have dramatically changed the way shockwaves from supersonic flight merge together as they travel to the ground. What used to sound like a boom on the ground will be transformed into a thump. NASA is now building a full-scale, piloted demonstration aircraft called the X-59 to demonstrate low-noise supersonic flight. In 2024, the X-59 aircraft will commence a national series of community overflight surveys to collect data on how people perceive “sonic thumps.” The results will be provided to national and international noise regulators as they consider creating new standards that allow commercial supersonic flight over land at acceptably low noise levels. In this presentation we provide historical context for the current prohibitions on supersonic commercial flight. Using data collected during earlier NASA tests, we demonstrate how generalized linear mixed models can be used to inform the functional dose-response curve. We also illustrate simulation experiments of the variability of sonic thump exposure across the United States. Finally, we discuss some of the challenges in designing the future community studies and generalizing them to a nationally-representative dose-response curve.

Quesst↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Mitigating the Impacts of Measurement Error in the Quesst Mission Community Noise Study

Beginning in 2025, the NASA Quesst mission will conduct a series of community response tests involving flyovers of the X-59 aircraft at select localities across the United States. Several waves of a longitudinal survey will be administered over approximately one month of testing in order to capture perceptual responses to low-amplitude sonic booms, or “sonic thumps”. Simultaneously, noise exposure levels will be estimated by fusing model-based predictions with measurements taken from a sparse network of monitors in the region. As one of the aims of the study is to produce a dose-response curve, a regression model relating perceptual response to noise exposure levels, it is important to acknowledge the potential attenuation bias that results from measurement error in the estimated noise exposure levels. In this presentation we review and compare several methods for dealing with measurement error in generalized linear mixed models. The methods are demonstrated on simulated data and real data collected during past NASA risk reduction studies.

measurement error↗
NASA NTRS2024

Summary and Annotated Bibliography of Measurement Error Corrections with Potential Application in Future Quesst Mission Community Noise Studies

This document is motivated by likely needs of the Quesst mission community response tests, which will culminate in data collection and estimation of dose-response regression relationships for consideration by domestic and international aviation regulators. Furthermore, basic research questions evaluating interactions between rates of community annoyance, dose levels, and indicators of the presence of rattle, vibration, and startle hinge on hypothesis testing in the context of regression models. For a variety of reasons, noise doses may be known only imprecisely and may not reflect the actual level experienced by responding subjects. These differences between true dose and estimated dose, be they systematic or random, constitute covariate measurement error. Available statistics literature speaks to the impacts of measurement error on regression models, both in terms of bias in estimated coefficients and predicted values, and in terms of the loss of statistical power for hypothesis testing. Given the particulars of a categorical annoyance response variable and a continuous noise dose predictor variable subject to measurement error during testing, the emphasis of this report is on findings and methods pertinent to generalized linear (and mixed) models likely to be employed during the Quesst mission community tests. We reach the following conclusions: 1. Of four reviewed methods, structural Bayesian measurement error models and simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) may be the most readily applicable to Quesst mission community noise study objectives. 2. If warranted, a linear measurement model can help model systematic sources of measurement error that the classical measurement error does not. 3. For its ready implementation and small additional input requirements, simulation extrapolation may be ideally suited for addressing secondary research questions involving interactions between annoyance, noise dose, and other factors through hypothesis testing. 4. For their flexibility and ability to propagate uncertainty, structural Bayesian hierarchical models have great appeal for mission purposes; some care may be needed in developing appropriate probability models describing actual noise exposure during testing. An annotated bibliography logs additional papers and resources that may be of value to analysts in other projects and disciplines.

Dose-Response Model↗
NASA NTRS1993

Convex set and linear mixing model

A major goal of optical remote sensing is to determine surface compositions of the earth and other planetary objects. For assessment of composition, single pixels in multi-spectral images usually record a mixture of the signals from various materials within the corresponding surface area. In this report, we introduce a closed and bounded convex set as a mathematical model for linear mixing. This model has a clear geometric implication because the closed and bounded convex set is a natural generalization of a triangle in n-space. The endmembers are extreme points of the convex set. Every point in the convex closure of the endmembers is a linear mixture of those endmembers, which is exactly how linear mixing is defined. With this model, some general criteria for selecting endmembers could be described. This model can lead to a better understanding of linear mixing models.

Xu, P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Field Assessment of Sensorimotor Function Following Long-Duration Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION: Field assessments of functional task performance following long duration spaceflight are critical to characterize the risk associated with sensorimotor adaptation. A portable test battery involving sit-to-stand, prone-to-stand, walk and turn with obstacle, and tandem walking has been implemented during pre- and postflight testing to provide Sensorimotor Standard Measures that could be implemented in remote test locations. METHODS: To date, 19 astronauts (12 males, 7 females) participated in this study before and after 6–8-month expeditions to the International Space Station (198 ± 70 days, mean ±std). Ethics approvals were obtained, and all subjects provided informed consent. Tests were conducted preflight, within a few hours after landing, and then 1 day and 6–11 days later. Time to stability was the outcome measure for both standing tasks, time to completion and turn rate for the walk and turn task, and percent complete steps for the tandem walking (eyes open and closed). Statistical analyses included mixed effects (multi-level) generalized linear models. RESULTS: Consistent with previous Field Tests, significant effects of spaceflight were observed during the initial testing including longer times to stabilize posture when standing, longer times to complete the short obstacle walk, and fewer correct steps during tandem walking. The recovery timeline varied with task complexity, generally taking longer when either the basis of support was limited (e.g., tandem walk) and/or visual cues were deprived (eyes closed). DISCUSSION: These data suggest that additional sensorimotor-based countermeasures may be necessary to maintain functional performance during long-duration spaceflight. Maintaining core measures as new countermeasures are implemented during future missions will be instrumental in assessing their efficacy. This test battery will also serve as the basis for developing sensorimotor assessments during future space exploration.

Scott Jonathan Wood↗
NASA NTRS1987

Fuel-air mixing and combustion in a two-dimensional Wankel engine

A two-equation turbulence model, an algebraic grid generalization method, and an approximate factorization time-linearized numerical technique are used to study the effects of mixture stratification at the intake port and gaseous fuel injection on the flow field and fuel-air mixing in a two-dimensional rotary engine model. The fuel distribution in the combustion chamber is found to be a function of the air-fuel mixture fluctuations at the intake port. It is shown that the fuel is advected by the flow field induced by the rotor and is concentrated near the leading apex during the intake stroke, while during compression, the fuel concentration is highest near the trailing apex and is lowest near the rotor. It is also found that the fuel concentration near the trailing apex and rotor is small except at high injection velocities.

Shih, T. I.-P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Constructor selection system

Future space construction missions will involve both human and machine constructors. Selection of the optimum constructor mix requires a model of constructor capabilities and requirements. The database for that model is developed via extrapolation from current literature. Optimization is done via minimization of total mission cost using a linear programming approach. This prototype is the first cut at producing a general tool for choosing a near-optimum constructor mix for any space construction mission. It illuminates some significant representational and data-gathering problems with the modelling approach.

Johnson, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1994

Towards enhancing and delaying disturbances in free shear flows

The family of shear flows comprising the jet, wake, and the mixing layer are subjected to perturbations in an inviscid incompressible fluid. By modeling the basic mean flows as parallel with piecewise linear variations for the velocities, complete and general solutions to the linearized equations of motion can be obtained in closed form as functions of all space variables and time when posed as an initial value problem. The results show that there is a continuous as well as the discrete spectrum that is more familiar in stability theory and therefore there can be both algebraic and exponential growth of disturbances in time. These bases make it feasible to consider control of such flows. To this end, the possibility of enhancing the disturbances in the mixing layer and delaying the onset in the jet and wake is investigated. It is found that growth of perturbations can be delayed to a considerable degree for the jet and the wake but, by comparison, cannot be enhanced in the mixing layer. By using moving coordinates, a method for demonstrating the predominant early and long time behavior of disturbances in these flows is given for continuous velocity profiles. It is shown that the early time transients are always algebraic whereas the asymptotic limit is that of an exponential normal mode. Numerical treatment of the new governing equations confirm the conclusions reached by use of the piecewise linear basic models. Although not pursued here, feedback mechanisms designed for control of the flow could be devised using the results of this work.

Criminale, W. O.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Calculation of steady and unsteady airfoil flow fields via the Navier-Stokes equations

A compressible time-dependent procedure for the two-dimensional ensemble averaged Navier-Stokes equations has been applied to the isolated airfoil problem in steady and unsteady flows. The procedure solves the governing equations via the linearized block implicit technique. Turbulence is modeled either via a mixing length or turbulence energy approach. The equations are solved in general non-orthogonal form with no-slip boundary conditions applied at the airfoil surface. Results are presented for airfoils at constant incidence, an airfoil in ramp motion and an airfoil oscillating through a dynamic stall loop. In general, steady converged solutions are obtained within 70 time steps over the range of Mach numbers considered. Comparisons with measured data show good agreement between computation and measurement.

Shamroth, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Cognitive Performance in ISS Astronauts on 6-Month Low Earth Orbit Missions

Introduction: Current and future astronauts will endure prolonged exposure to spaceflight hazards and environmental stressors that could compromise cognitive functioning, yet cognitive performance in current missions to the International Space Station remains critically under-characterized. We systematically assessed cognitive performance across 10 cognitive domains in astronauts on 6-month missions to the ISS. Methods: Twenty-five professional astronauts were administered the Cognition Battery as part of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Research Program Standard Measures Cross-Cutting Project. Cognitive performance data were collected at five mission phases: pre-flight, early flight, late flight, early post-flight, and late post-flight. We calculated speed and accuracy scores, corrected for practice effects, and derived z-scores to represent deviations in cognitive performance across mission phases from the sample’s mean baseline (i.e., pre-flight) performance. Linear mixed models with random subject intercepts and pairwise comparisons examined the relationships between mission phase and cognitive performance. Results: Cognitive performance was generally stable over time with some differences observed across mission phases for specific subtests. There was slowed performance observed in early flight on tasks of processing speed, visual working memory, and sustained attention. We observed a decrease in risk-taking propensity during late flight and post-flight mission phases. Beyond examining group differences, we inspected scores that represented a significant shift from the sample’s mean baseline score, revealing that 11.8% of all flight and post-flight scores were at or below 1.5 standard deviations below the sample’s baseline mean. Finally, exploratory analyses yielded no clear pattern of associations between cognitive performance and either sleep or ratings of alertness. Conclusions: There was no evidence for a systematic decline in cognitive performance for astronauts on a 6-month missions to the ISS. Some differences were observed for specific subtests at specific mission phases, suggesting that processing speed, visual working memory, sustained attention, and risk-taking propensity may be the cognitive domains most susceptible to change in Low Earth Orbit for high performing, professional astronauts. We provide descriptive statistics of pre-flight cognitive performance from 25 astronauts, the largest published preliminary normative database of its kind to date, to help identify significant performance decrements in future samples.

Data curation↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA Tech Briefs, Februrary 2013

Topics covered include: Measurements of Ultra-Stable Oscillator (USO) Allan Deviations in Space; Gaseous Nitrogen Orifice Mass Flow Calculator; Validation of Proposed Metrics for Two-Body Abrasion Scratch Test Analysis Standards; Rover Low Gain Antenna Qualification for Deep Space Thermal Environments; Automated, Ultra-Sterile Solid Sample Handling and Analysis on a Chip; Measuring and Estimating Normalized Contrast in Infrared Flash Thermography; Spectrally and Radiometrically Stable, Wideband, Onboard Calibration Source; High-Reliability Waveguide Vacuum/Pressure Window; Methods of Fabricating Scintillators With Radioisotopes for Beta Battery Applications; Magnetic Shield for Adiabatic Demagnetization Refrigerators (ADR); CMOS-Compatible SOI MESFETS for Radiation-Hardened DC-to-DC Converters; Silicon Heat Pipe Array; Adaptive Phase Delay Generator; High-Temperature, Lightweight, Self-Healing Ceramic Composites for Aircraft Engine Applications; Treatment to Control Adhesion of Silicone-Based Elastomers; High-Temperature Adhesives for Thermally Stable Aero-Assist Technologies; Rockballer Sample Acquisition Tool; Rock Gripper for Sampling, Mobility, Anchoring, and Manipulation; Advanced Magnetic Materials Methods and Numerical Models for Fluidization in Microgravity and Hypogravity; Data Transfer for Multiple Sensor Networks Over a Broad Temperature Range; Using Combustion Synthesis to Reinforce Berms and Other Regolith Structures; Visible-Infrared Hyperspectral Image Projector; Three-Axis Attitude Estimation With a High-Bandwidth Angular Rate Sensor Change_Detection.m; AGATE: Adversarial Game Analysis for Tactical Evaluation; Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative; Modeling Experiments (ISOGAME); An Extensible, User- Modifiable Framework for Planning Activities; Mission Operations Center (MOC) - Precipitation Processing System (PPS) Interface Software System (MPISS); Automated 3D Damaged Cavity Model Builder for Lower Surface Acreage Tile on Orbiter; Mixed Linear/Square-Root Encoded Single-Slope Ramp Provides Low-Noise ADC with High Linearity for Focal Plane Arrays; RUSHMAPS: Real-Time Uploadable Spherical Harmonic Moment Analysis for Particle Spectrometers; Powered Descent Guidance with General Thrust-Pointing Constraints; X-Ray Detection and Processing Models for Spacecraft Navigation and Timing; and Extreme Ionizing-Radiation-Resistant Bacterium

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1987

Deconvolution of spectra for intimate mixtures

Visible to near infrared reflectance spectra of macroscopic mixtures have been shown to be linear combinations of the reflections of the pure mineral components in the mixture. However, for microscopic mixtures the mixing systematics are in general nonlinear. The systematics may be linearized by conversion of reflectance to single scattering albedo (w), where the equations which relate reflectance to w depend on the method of data collection. Several proposed mixing models may be used to estimate mineral abundances from the reflectance spectra of intimate mixtures. These models are summarized and a revised model is presented. A noniterative (linear) least squares approach was used for curve fitting and the data, measured as bi-directional reflectance with incidence and emergence angles of 30 and 0 deg were converted to w by a simplified version of Hapke's equation for bi-directional reflectance. This model was tested with two mixture series composed of 45 to 75 micron particles: an anorthite-enstatite series and an olivine-magnetite series. The data indicate that the simplified Hapke's equation may be used to convolve reflectance spectra into mineral abundances if appropriate endmembers are known or derived from other techniques. For surfaces that contain a significant component of very low albedo material, a somewhat modified version of this technique will need to be developed. Since the abundances are calculated using a noniterative approach, the application of this method is especially efficient for large spectral data sets, such as those produced by mapping spectrometers.

Mustard, John F.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Towards a Comprehensive Model of Jet Noise Using an Acoustic Analogy and Steady RANS Solutions

An acoustic analogy is developed to predict the noise from jet flows. It contains two source models that independently predict the noise from turbulence and shock wave shear layer interactions. The acoustic analogy is based on the Euler equations and separates the sources from propagation. Propagation effects are taken into account by calculating the vector Green's function of the linearized Euler equations. The sources are modeled following the work of Tam and Auriault, Morris and Boluriaan, and Morris and Miller. A statistical model of the two-point cross-correlation of the velocity fluctuations is used to describe the turbulence. The acoustic analogy attempts to take into account the correct scaling of the sources for a wide range of nozzle pressure and temperature ratios. It does not make assumptions regarding fine- or large-scale turbulent noise sources, self- or shear-noise, or convective amplification. The acoustic analogy is partially informed by three-dimensional steady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solutions that include the nozzle geometry. The predictions are compared with experiments of jets operating subsonically through supersonically and at unheated and heated temperatures. Predictions generally capture the scaling of both mixing noise and BBSAN for the conditions examined, but some discrepancies remain that are due to the accuracy of the steady RANS turbulence model closure, the equivalent sources, and the use of a simplified vector Green's function solver of the linearized Euler equations.

Miller, Steven A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A mixed formulation for interlaminar stresses in dropped-ply laminates

A structural model is developed for the linear elastic response of structures consisting of multiple layers of varying thickness such as laminated composites containing internal ply drop-offs. The assumption of generalized plane deformation is used to reduce the solution domain to two dimensions while still allowing some out-of-plane deformation. The Hellinger-Reissner variational principle is applied to a layerwise assumed stress distribution with the resulting governing equations solved using finite differences.

Harrison, Peter N.↗