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Results for “Generalized linear mixed models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Effects of hydrokinetic turbine sound on the behavior of four species of fish within an experimental mesocosm

The development of hydrokinetic energy technologies (e.g., tidal turbines) has raised concern over the potential impacts of underwater sound produced by hydrokinetic turbines on fish species likely to encounter these turbines. To assess the potential for behavioral impacts, we exposed four species of fish to varying intensities of recorded hydrokinetic turbine sound in a semi-natural environment. Although we tested freshwater species (redhorse suckers [Moxostoma spp], freshwater drum [Aplondinotus grunniens], largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides], and rainbow trout [Oncorhynchus mykiss]), these species are also representative of the hearing physiology and sensitivity of estuarine species that would be affected at tidal energy sites. Here, we evaluated changes in fish position relative to different intensities of turbine sound as well as trends in location over time with linear mixed-effects and generalized additive mixed models. We also evaluated changes in the proportion of near-source detections relative to sound intensity and exposure time with generalized linear mixed models and generalized additive models. Models indicated that redhorse suckers may respond to sustained turbine sound by increasing distance from the sound source. Freshwater drum models suggested a mixed response to turbine sound, and largemouth bass and rainbow trout models did not indicate any likely responses to turbine sound. Lastly, findings highlight the importance for future research to utilize accurate localization systems, different species, validated sound transmission distances, and to consider different types of behavioral responses to different turbine designs and to the cumulative sound of arrays of multiple turbines.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Extinction Dynamics of the Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus Carrier State Under Natural Conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most economically important livestock diseases worldwide. Following the clinical phase of FMD, a large proportion of ruminants remain persistently infected for extended periods. Although extinction of this carrier state occurs continuously at the animal and population levels, studies vary widely in their estimates of the duration of persistent infection. There is a need for robust statistical models to capture the dynamics of persistent infection for the sake of guiding FMD control and trade policies. The goal of the current study was to develop and assess statistical models to describe the extinction of FMD virus (FMDV) persistent infection using data from primary longitudinal studies of naturally infected cattle and Asian buffalo in Vietnam and India. Specifically, accelerated failure time (AFT) models and generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were developed to predict the probability of persistent infection in seropositive animals and identified carriers at the individual animal level at sequential time points after outbreaks. The primary studies were analyzed by country and combined using an individual-participant data meta-analysis approach. The models estimated similar trends in the duration of persistent infection for the study/species groups included in the analyses, however the significance of the trends differed between the models. The overall probabilities of persistent infection were similar as predicted by the AFT and GLMM models: 6 months: 99% (AFT) /80% (GLMM), 12 months: 51% (AFT) /32% (GLMM), 18 months: 6% (AFT) /5% (GLMM), 24 months: 0.8% (AFT) /0.6% (GLMM). These models utilizing diverse and robust data sets predict higher probabilities of persistence than previously published, suggesting greater endurance of carriers subsequent to an outbreak. This study demonstrates the utility of statistical models to investigate the dynamics of persistent infection and the importance of large datasets, which can be achieved by combining data from several smaller studies in meta-analyses. Results of this study enhance current knowledge of the FMDV carrier state and may inform policy decisions regarding FMDV persistent infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Posterior propriety for hierarchical models with log-likelihoods that have norm bounds

Statisticians often use improper priors to express ignorance or to provide good frequency properties, requiring that posterior propriety be verified. Our paper addresses generalized linear mixed models, GLMMs, when Level I parameters have Normal distributions, with many commonly-used hyperpriors. It provides easy-to-verify sufficient posterior propriety conditions based on dimensions, matrix ranks, and exponentiated norm bounds, ENBs, for the Level I likelihood. Since many familiar likelihoods have ENBs, which is often verifiable via log-concavity and MLE finiteness, our novel use of ENBs permits unification of posterior propriety results and posterior MGF/moment results for many useful Level I distributions, including those commonly used with multilevel generalized linear models, e.g., GLMMs and hierarchical generalized linear models, HGLMs. Furthermore, those who need to verify existence of posterior distributions or of posterior MGFs/moments for a multilevel generalized linear model given a proper or improper multivariate F prior as in Section 1 should find the required results in Sections 1 and 2 and Theorem 3 (GLMMs), Theorem 4 (HGLMs), or Theorem 5 (posterior MGFs/moments).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interpretable Machine Learning for Characterizing Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior: Insights from Real-World Data

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption rises globally, concerns about the impact on aging electrical grids grow, particularly regarding the charging behavior of EV drivers. This study analyzes real-world driving and charging data from Ford battery electric vehicles (BEVs) collected between 2018 and 2019 to develop interpretable models that characterize charging behavior and quantify influencing factors. Prior research has relied on assumptions regarding driver behavior, often overlooking actual charging patterns. By employing generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), this work offers insights into how various elements, such as next trip distance and state of charge (SOC), influence charging decisions. The dataset comprises over three million park-trip pairs from 1,997 vehicles, revealing that features related to driving behavior significantly dictate charging behavior, while infrastructure and regional factors have lesser impacts. The findings suggest that existing simulation models may oversimplify EV charging behavior assumptions. This work utilizes real-world EV driving and charging data to train interpretable models that describe charging behavior and quantify the factors most associated with how drivers use charging infrastructure. This research underscores the need for interpretable, data-driven methodologies to inform future EV infrastructure planning and grid management.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Breeding latitude is associated with the timing of nesting and migration around the annual calendar among Purple Martin (Progne subis) populations

Timing is critical for species that migrate seasonally, as timing mismatches can lead to reduced reproductive success and population declines. We investigated the effect of breeding latitude on the migration timing of a long-distance migratory songbird (Purple Martin, Progne subis subis) by using light-level geolocators deployed across breeding sites between 26° and 53° latitude (n = 329). We used nesting data (1st egg dates; n=28,165) to explore latitudinal patterns in the timing of breeding. Using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) we found that breeding latitude was highly associated with timing around the calendar, explaining population-level timing across both spring and fall migration. Populations breeding at more northern latitudes migrated later in fall (mean days/degree latitude =2), in spring (mean days/degree latitude =3), and nested later (days/degree latitude = 3) than populations breeding at more southern latitudes. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) revealed significant non-linearity between breeding latitude and spring and fall migration timing, and the timing of nesting. In spring, the most northern breeders (> 40 degrees N) were more synchronous in their timing, departing their nonbreeding sites and arriving earlier at their breeding sites relative to their breeding latitude. These most northern breeders also had similar nest timing and fall migration departure timing. Breeding latitude was also associated with seasonal partitioning of migratory and sedentary periods. The most northern breeders spent 10% more time on fall migration, 2% more at wintering grounds, 1% more on spring migration, and 13% less time at their breeding sites. Our results support the notion that selection for timing at breeding latitudes can have year-round effects on the timing of seasonal events in long-distance migratory songbirds. Future studies should examine whether these timing patterns associated with latitude limit phenotypic responses to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-resolution (30-m) urban land cover projections for Los Angeles California Urban Area: 2010 to 2100 under SSP5

These data represent simulations of future land use and land cover (LULCC) for Los Angeles urban area (U.S. Census Bureau defined area) as raster tiff images at a 30-m pixel resolution and at decadal time steps from 2010 to 2100. LULCC classes in this product follow the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) classification. NLCD 21-24 correspond to open developed, low developed, medium developed, and high developed urban land classes, respectively. Only urban land cover classes (NLCD class 21, 22, 23, and 24) are dynamic over time; however, all NLCD classes are included in the final product. Therefore, NLCD classes that do not convert to an urban class will be similar to year 2000. The products were developed using a hybridized statistical and cellular automata approach. Linear mixed models (LMMs) were used to estimate future urban land budgets based on 1-km urban land fraction projections from Gao and Pesaresi (2021), whereas separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to estimate shifts in urban land intensities based on retrospective shifts in NLCD urban class intensities over a 20- year period. Based on urban land allocations from the statistical models, a cellular-automata and downscaling routine was used to simulate dynamic urban land expansion at a 30-m resolution based on suitability criteria. Scenarios of future urban landcover change projections include variant solutions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 (SSP5) based on different population assumptions, different land use intensification assumptions, variable land zoning constraints, and iterative adjustments to correct for over allocation of urban expansion across decadal time periods from 2010 to 2100. This results in 320 raster products.

Land↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-resolution (30-m) urban land cover projections for Los Angeles California Urban Area: 2010 to 2100 under SSP3 and SSP5 [Updated simulations based on population-driven urban intensity transitions]

These data (v3) are updated from previous versions (1 and 2) in that they include consider the effects of population on transitions in urban land intensity. This leads to more reasonable differences in urban land projections under variant SSPs. For the present dataset, both SSP3 and SSP5 are provided. These data represent simulations of future land use and land cover (LULCC) for Los Angeles urban area (U.S. Census Bureau defined area) as raster tiff images at a 30-m pixel resolution and at decadal time steps from 2010 to 2100. LULCC classes in this product follow the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) classification. NLCD 21-24 correspond to open developed, low developed, medium developed, and high developed urban land classes, respectively. Only urban land cover classes (NLCD class 21, 22, 23, and 24) are dynamic over time; however, all NLCD classes are included in the final product. Therefore, NLCD classes that do not convert to an urban class will be similar to year 2000. The products were developed using a hybridized statistical and cellular automata approach. Linear mixed models (LMMs) were used to estimate future urban land budgets based on 1-km urban land fraction projections from Gao and Pesaresi (2021), whereas separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to estimate shifts in urban land intensities based on retrospective shifts in NLCD urban class intensities over a 20- year period. Based on urban land allocations from the statistical models, a cellular-automata and downscaling routine was used to simulate dynamic urban land expansion at a 30-m resolution based on suitability criteria. Scenarios of future urban landcover change projections include variant solutions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 (SSP5) and SSP 3 based on different population assumptions, different land use intensification assumptions, variable land zoning constraints, and iterative adjustments to correct for over allocation of urban expansion across decadal time periods from 2010 to 2100. This results in 320 raster products.

Land↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environmental predictors of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) sputum positivity among persons with cystic fibrosis in the state of Florida

Nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are opportunistic human pathogens that are commonly found in soil and water, and exposure to these organisms may cause pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease. Persons with cystic fibrosis (CF) are at high risk for developing pulmonary NTM infections, and studies have shown that prolonged exposure to certain environments can increase the risk of pulmonary NTM. It is therefore important to determine the risk associated with different geographic areas. Using annualized registry data obtained from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry for 2010 through 2017, we conducted a geospatial analysis of NTM infections among persons with CF in Florida. A Bernoulli model in SaTScan was used to identify clustering of ZIP codes with higher than expected numbers of NTM culture positive individuals. Generalized linear mixed models with a binomial distribution were used to test the association of environmental variables and NTM culture positivity. We identified a significant cluster of M . abscessus and predictors of NTM sputum positivity, including annual precipitation and soil mineral levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Ecological analysis of associations between groundwater quality and hypertension and cardiovascular disease in rural Saskatchewan, Canada using Bayesian hierarchical models and administrative health data

Highlights: • Hardness and magnesium were associated with decreased risk of cardiovascular disease. • Arsenic concentrations were not associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease. • Summarized water health standards were not associated with cardiovascular disease. Associations between groundwater quality and the prevalence of hypertension and ischemic heart disease were investigated in rural areas of the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. The partially ecological study was analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical models to account for spatial variability in risk. Exposure measures and health outcomes were estimated based on previously collected water quality surveillance data from public water supplies and private wells and administrative health data. Water quality exposures for each study region were estimated by applying geostatistical techniques to arsenic concentrations and principal component (PC) scores. The PC scores summarized groups of parameters measuring either health standards or aesthetic objectives described by the province. Generalized linear mixed models with a log link assessed associations between water quality and observed count of health outcomes relative to the expected value. The Bayesian models contained uncorrelated and spatially correlated random effects for each geographic region. Effect estimates were controlled for sex and age by stratification of case and expected case counts, for smoking by inclusion of sex- and age-specific prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as a surrogate covariate, and for education and income by use of census data. There was no evidence for associations between groundwater arsenic concentrations in public or private water supplies and increased risk of hypertension or cardiovascular disease. An increase in the second aesthetic objectives PC score from public supplies was associated with a protective effect against ischemic heart disease. This PC value summarized hardness and magnesium Similarly, an increase in the second aesthetic objectives PC in private supplies was associated with decreased prevalence of hypertension. The results of this study are consistent with others demonstrating a relationship between elevated hardness and magnesium concentrations in drinking water and reduced risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Further investigation is warranted with individual exposure history, particularly with respect to the potential beneficial effect of hard water on the prevalence of hypertension and cardiovascular disease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resident and transient coyotes exhibit differential patterns of movement behavior across heterogeneous landscapes in the southeastern United States

Coyotes (Canis latrans) are a highly adaptable canid species whose behavioral plasticity has allowed them to persist in a wide array of habitats throughout North America. As generalists, coyotes can alter movement patterns and change territorial strategies between residency (high site fidelity) and transiency (low site fidelity) to maximize fitness. Uncertainty remains about resident and transient coyote movement patterns and habitat use because research has reached conflicting conclusions regarding patterns of habitat use by both groups. We quantified effects of habitat on resident and transient coyote movement behavior using first passage time (FPT) analysis, which assesses recursive movement along an individual's movement path to delineate where they exhibit area-restricted search (ARS) behaviors relative to habitat attributes. We quantified monthly movement rates for 171 coyotes (76 residents and 53 transients) and then used estimated FPT values in generalized linear mixed models to quantify monthly habitat use for resident and transient coyotes. Transients had greater movement rates than residents across all months except January. Resident FPT values were positively correlated with agricultural land cover during fall and winter, but negatively correlated with agriculture during spring. Resident FPT values were also negatively correlated with developed habitats during May–August, deciduous land cover during June–August, and wetlands during September–January except November. FPT values of transient coyotes were positively correlated with developed areas throughout much of the year and near wetlands during July–September. Transient FPT values were negatively correlated with agriculture during all months except June and July. High FPT values (ARS behavior) of residents and transients were generally correlated with greater densities of edge habitat. Although we observed high individual variation in space use, our study found substantive differences in habitat use between residents and transients, providing further evidence that complexity and plasticity of coyote habitat use is influenced by territorial strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification of Data-Driven Models of Physical Phenomena using Interpretable Approximation

Machine-learned models, specifically neural networks, are increasingly used as “closures” or “constitutive models” in engineering simulators to represent fine-scale physical phenomena that are too computationally expensive to resolve explicitly. However, these neural net models of unresolved physical phenomena tend to fail unpredictably and are therefore not used in mission-critical simulations. In this report, we describe new methods to authenticate them, i.e., to determine the (physical) information content of their training datasets, qualify the scenarios where they may be used and to verify that the neural net, as trained, adhere to physics theory. We demonstrate these methods with neural net closure of turbulent phenomena used in Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show the types of turbulent physics extant in our training datasets, and, using a test flow of an impinging jet, identify the exact locations where the neural network would be extrapolating i.e., where it would be used outside the feature-space where it was trained. Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, we also generate explanations of the neural net (à la Local Interpretable Model agnostic Explanations) at prototypes placed in the training data and compare them with approximate analytical models from turbulence theory. Finally, we verify our findings by reproducing them using two different methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long‐term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest

Abstract Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five‐year‐long, field‐based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open‐top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species ( Diphascon pingue , Adropion scoticum , and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long‐term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Effective dose and persistence of Rhodamine-B in wild pig Vibrissae

Due to substantial ecological and economic damage attributed to wild pigs (Sus scrofa), there is international interest in using pharmaceutical baits to control populations. To assess the efficacy and specificity of baiting programs, one may use chemical biomarkers to evaluate uptake of pharmaceutical baits. In particular, Rhodamine B (RB) is known to be an effective biomarker in wild pigs. However, significant data gaps exist regarding the minimum effective dosage and the persistence of RB in wild pigs. To investigate this we used a controlled double-blind study, administering a one-time dose of RB at three treatment levels (5, 15, or 30 mg/kg) to 15 pigs, with five pigs per treatment group. Facial vibrissae were collected pre-RB ingestion as a control and every 2 weeks post-RB ingestion for 12 weeks. We examined samples for RB presence and used a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to determine the influence of treatment dose on persistence of RB. Additionally, we measured distance moved by the RB mark away from the vibrissae root and used a GLMM to assess movement rates of RB bands along growing vibrissae. Here, we found consistently greater persistence of RB in the 15 and 30 mg/kg treatments across the sampling period (p = 0.005 and p = <0.0001, respectively). A significant, positive movement trend in RB bands was observed within the 15 and 30mg/kg groups. Based on our results, a 15 mg/kg dosage can be considered a minimum effective dose for wild pigs and will reliably produce a detectable RB mark up to and likely beyond 12 weeks post-ingestion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Personal and environmental predictors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposure identified through repeated silicone wristband sampling

This study integrates quantitative data on personal exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 162 silicone wristbands with demographics, behavioral information, and housing characteristics to explore contributions to residential exposure in a superfund-adjacent community over the course of a year. Forty-six residents completed questionnaires and wore silicone wristbands as personal passive samplers for seven consecutive days on up to four separate occasions in alternating months between November 2022 and June 2023. It was hypothesized that individual behaviors and housing characteristics are sources of dependence and correlation between personal PAH exposures. 50 PAHs were detected at least once, 17 of which were alkylated PAHs. Exposure to PAHs of similar molecular weight was often correlated, notably between naphthalenes (2-rings) and higher molecular weight PAHs (3 or more rings). Generalized linear mixed models identified flooring type, participant age, and sampling month as important predictors of increased PAH exposure, and flooring type, and use of wood stoves or heavy machinery as predictors of increased naphthalene exposure relative to higher molecular weight PAHs. Individual chemical models based on concentration data and detection frequencies corroborated these findings across multiple PAHs. We demonstrate that personal exposure is not static and the degree of variability in personal exposure is individual. Hence, identification of influential exposure factors through repeated measures of chemical exposure and characterization of variability in personal exposure as performed in this study, is important in the development of exposure mitigation strategies.

Bonner, Emily↗
DOE OSTI2016

Urinary concentrations of cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylic acid monohydroxy isononyl ester, a metabolite of the non-phthalate plasticizer di(isononyl)cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate (DINCH), and markers of ovarian response among women attending a fertility center

Di(isononyl)cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylate (DINCH), a non-phthalate plasticizer, was introduced commercially in 2002 as an alternative to ortho-phthalate esters because of its favorable toxicological profile. However, the potential health effects from DINCH exposure remain largely unknown. We explored the associations between urinary concentrations of metabolites of DINCH on markers of ovarian response among women undergoing in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatments. Between 2011 and 2015, 113 women enrolled a prospective cohort study at the Massachusetts General Hospital Fertility Center and provided up to two urine samples prior to oocyte retrieval. The urinary concentrations of two DINCH metabolites, cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylic acid monohydroxy isononyl ester (MHiNCH) and cyclohexane-1,2-dicarboxylic acid monocarboxyisooctyl ester (MCOCH), were quantified by isotope dilution tandem mass spectrometry. We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate the association between urinary metabolite concentrations and markers of ovarian response, accounting for multiple IVF cycles per woman via random intercepts. On average, women with detectable urinary MHiNCH concentrations, as compared to those below LOD, had a lower estradiol levels (−325 pmol/l, p=0.09) and number of retrieved oocytes (−1.8, p=0.08), with a stronger association among older women. However, urinary MHiNCH concentrations were unrelated to mature oocyte yield and endometrial wall thickness. In conclusion, we found suggestive negative associations between urinary MHiNCH concentrations and peak estradiol levels and number of total oocyte yields. This is the first study evaluating the effect of DINCH exposure on human reproductive health and raises the need for further experimental and epidemiological studies to better understand the potential effects of this chemical on health. - Highlights: • Women with detectable urinary MHiNCH concentrations had a lower estradiol levels and number of retrieved oocytes. • The negative association between urinary MHiNCH concentrations and total oocyte yield was stronger in older women. • Urinary MHiNCH concentrations were unrelated to mature oocyte yield and endometrial wall thickness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Blood lead levels and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal function in middle-aged individuals

Highlights: • We assessed cortisol secretions (CS) in adults aged 50–67 years. • We reported changes in CS in relation to blood lead levels. • At low-levels, lead does not impact the global trend of salivary CS. Experimental and epidemiological studies suggested that exposure to lead (Pb) may influence the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. However, previous studies have yielded mixed results. We evaluated changes in basal salivary cortisol levels and acute cortisol responsivity to psychological stress in relation with blood Pb levels (BPb), in Caucasian individuals 50–67 years of age. Data were collected through the Study of Genetics, Stress and Cognitive Development (2004–2006). Diurnal basal and stress-reactive salivary cortisol levels were collected and BPb levels were determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy. A total of 65 participants were included in the current study. General linear mixed models were used to assess the association between BPb level and change in cortisol secretion over time, for diurnal basal pattern and stress-reactive pattern, respectively. The geometric mean BPb was 2.70 μg/dL (± 1.44) and two exposure groups were created based on the median value of 2.48 µg/dL. No difference in geometric mean of salivary cortisol (µg/dL) at awakening was observed between High and Low BPb groups (0.23 (± 0.11) vs 0.20 (± 0.11), p = 0.36). The overall pattern of change in both diurnal basal (from the awakening to bedtime) and reactive salivary cortisol (during the stress induction protocol) did not differ between groups. In these middle-aged and older adults, we concluded that Pb exposure, within the range observed in the current study, was associated with neither diurnal nor stress-reactive cortisol secretion. Further investigation with larger datasets are needed to confirm our observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Thermal Skin Damage During Reirradiation and Hyperthermia Is Time-Temperature Dependent

Purpose: To investigate the relationship of thermal skin damage (TSD) to time–temperature isoeffect levels for patients with breast cancer recurrence treated with reirradiation plus hyperthermia (reRT + HT), and to investigate whether the treatment history of previous treatments (scar tissue) is a risk factor for TSD. Methods and Materials: In this observational study, temperature characteristics of hyperthermia sessions were analyzed in 262 patients with recurrent breast cancer treated in the AMC between 2010 and 2014 with reirradiation and weekly hyperthermia for 1 hour. Skin temperature was measured using a median of 42 (range, 29-82) measurement points per hyperthermia session. Results: Sixty-eight patients (26%) developed 79 sites of TSD, after the first (n=26), second (n=17), third (n=27), and fourth (n=9) hyperthermia session. Seventy percent of TSD occurred on or near scar tissue. Scar tissue reached higher temperatures than other skin tissue (0.4°C, P<.001). A total of 102 measurement points corresponded to actual TSD sites in 35 of 79 sessions in which TSD developed. Thermal skin damage sites had much higher maximum temperatures than non-TSD sites (2.8°C, P<.001). Generalized linear mixed models showed that the probability of TSD is related to temperature and thermal dose values (P<.001) and that scar tissue is more at risk (odds ratio 0.4, P<.001). Limiting the maximum temperature of a measurement point to 43.7°C would mean that the probability of observing TSD was at most 5%. Conclusion: Thermal skin damage during reRT + HT for recurrent breast cancer was related to higher local temperatures and time–temperature isoeffect levels. Scar tissue reached higher temperatures than other skin tissue, and TSD occurred at lower temperatures and thermal dose values in scar tissue compared with other skin tissue. Indeed, TSD developed often on and around scar tissue from previous surgical procedures.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Increasing fish taxonomic and functional richness affects ecosystem properties of small headwater prairie streams

Stream fish can regulate their environment through direct and indirect pathways, and the relative influence of communities with different taxonomic and functional richness on ecosystem properties likely depends on habitat structure. Given this complexity, it is not surprising that observational studies of how stream fish communities influence ecosystems have shown mixed results. In this study, we evaluated the effect of an observed gradient of taxonomic (zero, one, two or three species) and functional (zero, one or two groups) richness of fishes on several key ecosystem properties in experimental stream mesocosms. Our study simulated small (less than two metres wide) headwater prairie streams with a succession of three pool-riffle structures (upstream, middle and downstream) per mesocosm. Additionally, ecosystem responses included chlorophyll a from floating algal mats and benthic algae, benthic organic matter, macroinvertebrates (all as mass per unit area), algal filament length and stream metabolism (photosynthesis and respiration rate). Ecosystem responses were analysed individually using general linear mixed models. Significant treatment (taxonomic and functional richness) by habitat (pools and riffles) interactions were found for all but one ecosystem response variable. After accounting for location (upstream, middle and downstream) effects, the presence of one or two grazers resulted in shorter mean algal filament lengths in pools compared to no-fish controls. These observations suggest grazers can maintain short algal filaments in pools, which may inhibit long filaments from reaching the surface. Accordingly, floating algal mats decreased in mid- and downstream locations in grazer treatment relative to no-fish controls. At the scale of the entire reach, gross primary productivity and respiration were greater in treatments with two grazer species compared to mixed grazer/insectivore or control treatments. Lastly, the distribution of stream resources across habitat types and locations within a reach can therefore be influenced by the taxonomic and functional composition of fishes in small prairie streams. Thus, disturbances that alter diversity of these systems might have unexpected ecosystem-level consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗