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DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures

This supplemental document describes the methodology used for determining the dispatch timing of various EUSS demand flexibility measures. Demand flexibility measures are designed to reduce/dispatch electricity demand in buildings during especially beneficial/critical times. The method used in this work utilizes predictions of building loads to generate a schedule that reflects the periods when the building's daily peak load occurs to support decision making in demand flexibility measures. The dispatch schedule generation method described in this document creates an hourly schedule that includes a load dispatch (peak) window for each day for a whole year based on load prediction, with options using different prediction methods: perfect prediction, bin-sampling method, fixed schedule, and outdoor air temperature (OAT)-based prediction method. The perfect prediction method performs a simulation to obtain the annual load profile as predicted load, representing the scenario of perfect load prediction. The bin-sampling method (1) categorizes days into representative bins by temperature characteristics, (2) performs simulations on sample days from each of those bins to create representative (or predicted) load, and (3) assigns representative loads for all days in a year based on the bin categorization. The fixed schedule method defines uniform start and end time of peak window with assumed fixed daily peak time, for all days in a season or a year. The OAT-based prediction method uses the statistics of OAT (minimum and maximum) as the indicators of peak load, with specified delay response time from building loads to temperature. Given the load prediction, daily peak periods are determined as a time window with specified length in each day that include the predicted daily peak load and with a secondary rule such as maximizing energy saving potential. The dispatch schedule generation method is not a standalone measure and is intended to be combined with other demand flexibility measures that could leverage the peak schedule and apply demand controls on specific systems or devices for demand response, such as measures described in "Measure Documentation - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding" and "Measure Documentation - Thermostat Control for Load Shifting".

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robustness: The Missing Ingredient in Generation Scheduling

This article highlights robustness as an essential factor to cope with the ever-increasing levels of uncertainty in generation scheduling under significant renewable energy penetration, as is the case in Brazil and Spain. To that end, robust generation scheduling is framed within the different optimization-based approaches that are available for uncertainty handling. In addition, the suitability of robust optimization to accommodate practical security criteria in generation scheduling is also emphasized. Interestingly, this article points out the existence of an effective algorithm allowing the discovery of critical or so-called umbrella scenarios, which paves the way for the implementation of robust generation scheduling in industry practice.

Street, Alexandre↗

DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Modeling of Commercial Building Occupancy Patterns Using Location-Based Map Data: Preprint

Considering occupancy patterns is crucial to simulate buildings' energy use. Current energy models use inputs that simplify the actual diversity in occupancy into static occupancy patterns and are not able to represent the numerous variations in occupancy patterns between buildings and across different locations. Recently, inferring occupancy schedules from metered electricity consumption data was used to model occupancy in commercial buildings. However, the translation from metered data to occupancy schedules requires many assumptions that might not capture the reality, and the process is hindered by the availability of data from advanced metering infrastructure. With the development of information technologies, occupancy modeling should not be limited to traditional approaches. The prevalence of social networks and location services with real-time user feedback provides publicly accessible data via Maps Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) such as Google Maps, SafeGraph, Mapbox, Foursquare, etc. This paper presents an automated framework for modeling parametric occupancy patterns using such APIs to calibrate commercial district buildings' energy models. This process includes three main steps: data extraction and processing, parametric schedules generation, and schedules integration. We demonstrated this framework in districts where we used maps API to generate more accurate behavioral patterns for operations and electric vehicle charging events. We used these patterns to determine differences in energy use across key sociodemographic and spatial parameters. The presented method has the potential for worldwide applications. Users can utilize this framework to extract data for selected locations of interest to create more realistic behavioral patterns for commercial facilities across different districts.

building energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic scheduling of generating units with weekly energy storage: A hybrid decomposition approach

We propose a solution method for the large-scale stochastic unit commitment (SUC) problem with weekly-dispatched energy storage and significant weather-dependent stochastic generating capacity. Weekly storage facilities that mostly charge during weekends and discharge during weekdays require a weekly scheduling of generating units, which result in a large-scale optimization problem. This SUC problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic model and we use the conditional value-at-risk as a risk measure. Using a Benders framework, the proposed solution method decomposes the problem into a mixed-integer linear master problem and linear and continuous subproblems. The master problem corresponds to the first-stage decisions throughout the week and includes all the commitment (binary) variables and their corresponding constraints. The subproblems correspond to the actual dispatch of the generating units on a weekly basis. Based on the success of column-and-constraint generation algorithms to solve robust optimization problems, we improve the low communication between the master problem and the subproblems in the standard Benders decomposition by adding primal variables and constraints from the subproblems to the master problem, which provides a better approximation of the recourse function. Furthermore, our computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed decomposition method using an instance of the South Carolina synthetic system with 90 generating units under 40 scenarios.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Battery Degradation Modeling in Hybrid Power Plants: An Island System Unit Commitment Study: Preprint

As hybrid power plants (HPPs), such as photovoltaic (PV) and battery combinations, become increasingly important in power systems with high renewable energy penetration to address PV variability and ensure grid stability. This paper focuses on the urgent need to model the coordination between PV and battery systems in HPPs while accounting for battery degradation. We present a generation scheduling model that explicitly incorporates PV-battery hybridization in the unit commitment problem. Moreover, the cost function of the HPP scheduling problem endogenously considers battery degradation with adjustable weights to strike a balance between minimizing production costs and prolonging battery life, particularly when providing energy arbitrage and ancillary services. Using a realistic island system simulation, we demonstrate that accounting for battery degradation in the scheduling problem can significantly extend battery life with only minor additional production costs.

battery degradation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Unit Commitment Refinement - a Scalable Approach for Complex Modern Power Grids

Integration of renewable generation, which is often intermittent and decentralized, substantially increases the stochasticity and complexity of power grid operations. Future power systems planning will require significant computational capability to evaluate balance between demand and supply under varying conditions, both temporally and spatially. The standard approach for generation unit commitment is to use mixed-integer linear programming to find the optimal generation schedule considering ramping and generator constraints. In the future grid this poses computational scalability challenges because generation and demand are not known with certainty due to stochasticity in weather and complexity of the grid. To address this challenge, we present a data-driven unit commitment approach that can efficiently include stochastic weather impacts and contingency considerations to improve unit commitment. Our approach uses graph-based data analytics techniques on solutions to the security constrained (and possibly stochastic) economic dispatch problem to identify potential improvements to a given unit commitment. Recent breakthroughs in fully-parallel stochastic economic dispatch software allow this approach to be scalably deployed. Simulations on synthetic South Carolina and Texas grids show this method can improve grid reliability with security constraints over a set of contingencies, while also meaningfully lowering total generation cost.

Holt, Timothy↗

DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat and Lighting Control for Load Shedding + Photovoltaics With 40% Rooftop Coverage

This report describes the modeling methodology for an upgrade package of two end-use savings shape measures - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding and Lighting Control for Load Shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The package combines thermostat control for load shedding, lighting control for load shedding, and PV with 40% rooftop coverage measures to reduce the net building load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then relaxes the thermostat setpoints and dims the lighting level from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand, while applying the fixed rooftop PV application for onsite electricity generation. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 5%-15% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and around 1% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Thermostat Control for Load Shedding in Large Offices

This documentation focuses on a single End-Use Savings Shape measure - thermostat control for load shedding. The thermostat control for load shedding measure applies heating and cooling temperature setpoint offsets for reducing the heating and cooling load during peak window. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the peak window, and then adjusts the thermostat cooling and/or heating setpoints by an offset value from original schedules during the peak window to reduce the HVAC or whole building daily peak load. The measure is flexible and allows users to adjust the heating and cooling offset values respectively, but for this study, the adjustment for heating and cooling setpoints are set to -2 degrees Celsius and +2 degrees Celsius by default. The measure provides options of adding rebound control period (default 2 hours) after peak windows for the setpoints to be ramped back to default values, to prevent the system from generating higher peak demand with step changes of setpoints in post-peak periods . This measure is applicable t o large offices equipped with electric HVAC system (either electric cooling only or both electric heating and cooling), which account for approximately 8.72% of the ComStock floor area. The thermostat control for load shedding measure demonstrates 2-5% daily peak demand reduction and 0.068% total site energy savings (3 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Thermostat Control for Load Shifting in Large Offices

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - thermostat control for load shifting. The thermostat control for load shifting measure applies heating and cooling temperature setpoint adjustment for pre-conditioning before the peak window. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start time of the peak window, and then adjusts the thermostat cooling or heating setpoints by a specified offset value from original schedules to precool or preheat the space , for a specified length of time before the start of peak window, and thus shifts load in the peak window to the pre-conditioning period. The measure is flexible and allows users to adjust the heating and cooling offset values and length of pre-conditioning period, but for this study, the load shifting strategy is applied as pre-cooling only (adjusting only cooling setpoints). The default adjustment for cooling setpoints is set to -1 degrees Celsius , and the default duration of pre-cooling is 1 hour. This measure is applicable to large offices equipped with electric HVAC system, which account for approximately 8.72% of the ComStock floor area. The thermostat control for load shifting measure demonstrates -1% daily peak demand reduction and 0% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Lighting Control for Load Shedding

This report describes the modeling methodology for a single end-use savings shape measure - lighting control for load shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The lighting control for load shedding measure applies lighting dimming control to reduce the lighting load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then adjusts the lighting dimming level by a percentage reduction from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 2%-7% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and 0.43% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat and Lighting Control for Load Shedding

This report describes the modeling methodology for an upgrade package of two end-use savings shape measures - Thermostat Control for Load Shedding and Lighting Control for Load Shedding - and briefly introduces key results. The package combines thermostat control for load shedding and lighting control for load shedding measures to reduce the HVAC and lighting load during the building's electricity peak window every weekday. The measure takes daily peak load schedule inputs generated by the method "Dispatch Schedule Generation" described in the "Supplemental Documentation: Dispatch Schedule Generation for Demand Flexibility Measures" to determine the start and end times of the predicted peak window, and then relaxes the thermostat setpoints and dims the lighting level from the original schedules during the peak window to reduce the peak demand. The measure is applicable to (large, medium and small) offices, warehouses, and primary and secondary schools, which correspond to approximately 68% of the stock floor area of commercial buildings in ComStock analysis. The measure demonstrates 3%-10% daily peak demand reduction performance for applicable buildings, and 0.97% total site energy savings (0 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multistage Stochastic optimization for mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric system with renewable energy uncertainty

The uncertainties resulting from the escalating penetration of renewable energy resources pose severe challenges to the efficient operation of modern power systems. Hydroelectricity is characterized by its flexibility, controllability, and reliability, and thus becomes one of the most ideal energy resources to hedge against such uncertainties. This paper studies the mid-term integrated generation and maintenance scheduling of a cascaded hydroelectric system (CHS) consisting of multiple cascaded reservoirs and hydroelectric units. To precisely describe the mid-term water regulation policies, the hydraulic coupling relationship and water-energy nexus of CHS are incorporated into the proposed optimization model. The uncertainties of natural water inflow and the power outputs of wind/solar energy generation are taken into consideration and captured via a stochastic process modeled by a scenario tree. A multistage stochastic optimization (MSO) approach is developed to coordinate the complementary operations of multiple energy resources, by optimizing the mid-term water resource management, generation scheduling, and maintenance scheduling of CHS. The proposed MSO model is formulated as a large-scale mixed-integer linear program that presents significant computational intractability. To address this issue, a tailored Benders decomposition algorithm is developed. Two real-world case studies are conducted to demonstrate the capability and characteristics of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that the proposed MSO model can exploit the flexibility of hydroelectricity to efficiently respond to variable wind and solar power, and reserve water resources for the generation in peak months to reduce the consumption of fossil fuel. Furthermore, the proposed solution approach also exhibits promising computational efficiency when handling large-scale models.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Correlating and Simulating Socio-Demographically Driven Residential End-Use Activity Schedules

Incorporating socio-demographic and behavioral considerations into decision-support tools is crucial for identifying gaps and addressing consumer needs to ensure reliable and affordable energy solutions. In energy simulation models, the correlation between socio-demographics and time-use behavior is not well-captured. Thus, we developed a large-scale simulation workflow to generate schedules for 10 residential activities across 24 population segments defined by age, income, and employment status. Using pre-pandemic 2015-2019 American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data, we used ANOVA to confirm the correlation between demographic factors and time use. We explored three k-modes clustering methods-backward, forward, and a new hybrid approach-to delineate the occupancy patterns based on demographics. Using the probability of cluster membership for each population segment and a time inhomogeneous Markov chain to generate activity transition probabilities for each cluster, we simulated 50,000 schedules per segment and validated them against the ATUS data. The hybrid method produced the most socio-demographically differentiated clusters while demonstrating comparable performance to other approaches, with an overall root mean square error of 0.12 for both weekday and weekend schedules. Thus, the hybrid method, where each cluster is dominated by certain demographic segments and occupancy patterns, offers more modeling versatility in terms of scenario analysis. The new workflow improves the socio demographic differentiation of energy consumption by considering differences in time use. This approach enables future research on demographically segmented time of use (TOU) energy consumption, including impacts of TOU utility bills and rate analysis, long-run marginal emissions, and energy retrofits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

AI4IO: A suite of AI-based tools for IO-aware scheduling

Traditional workload managers do not have the capacity to consider how IO contention can increase job runtime and even cause entire resource allocations to be wasted. Whether from bursts of IO demand or parallel file systems (PFS) performance degradation, IO contention must be identified and addressed to ensure maximum performance. In this paper, we present AI4IO (AI for IO), a suite of tools using AI methods to prevent and mitigate performance losses due to IO contention. AI4IO enables existing workload managers to become IO-aware. Currently, AI4IO consists of two tools: PRIONN and CanarIO. PRIONN predicts IO contention and empowers schedulers to prevent it. CanarIO mitigates the impact of IO contention when it does occur. We measure the effectiveness of AI4IO when integrated into Flux, a next-generation scheduler, for both small- and large-scale IO-intensive job workloads. Our results show that integrating AI4IO into Flux improves the workload makespan up to 6.4%, which can account for more than 18,000 node-h of saved resources per week on a production cluster in our large-scale workload.

Wyatt, II, Michael R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Power generation-cooling water Nexus: Impacts of cooling water shortage on power system operation - a simulation case study in Illinois, U.S

Cooling water shortage, frequently attributed to drought and heat waves, poses a significant threat to the operations of thermoelectric power plants and further poses a challenge for the entire power system and environmental stakeholders. Recognizing the critical nexus between power generation and cooling water availability and the potential ability of power generations to adjust generation schedules during cooling water shortages, this paper introduces a security-constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch model considering water-energy nexus. In specific, the model is augmented with a unit-level cooling water requirement (CWR) model and multi-level cooling water availability (CWA) constraints. The unit-level CWR model quantifies the cooling water withdrawal per MWh of power generation, taking into account factors such as thermoelectric generation technologies, cooling system technologies, and environmental parameters. The multi-level CWA constraints incorporate pump-level, plant-level, watershed-level, and forced minimum power constraints, utilizing data derived from actual-based cooling water shortage scenarios. Using a simulation case study in Illinois, United States, this research examines the reliability, economic, and environmental implications of cooling water shortages on power system operations. The results show that Illinois may experience 10-15% daily load curtailment and severe congestion between certain regions from the east to central during cooling water shortages, while once-through and wet-tower units experience a 52% and 17% reduction in power generation. In conclusion, overall cooling water withdrawal decreases by 24-38% as severity intensifies.

Cooling water shortage↗

DOE OSTI2024

Frequency Nadir Constrained Unit Commitment for High Renewable Penetration Island Power Systems

The process of energy decarbonization in island power systems is accelerated due to the swift integration of inverter-based renewable energy resources (IBRs). The unique features of such systems, including rapid frequency changes resulting from potential generation outages or imbalances due to the unpredictability of renewable power, pose a significant challenge in maintaining the frequency nadir without external support. This paper presents a unit commitment (UC) model with data-driven frequency nadir constraints, including either frequency nadir or minimum inertia requirements, helping to limit frequency deviations after significant generator outages. The constraints are formulated using a linear regression model that takes advantage of real-world, year-long generation scheduling and dynamic simulation data. The efficacy of the proposed UC model is verified through a year-long simulation in an actual island power system using historical weather data. The alternative minimum inertia constraint, derived from actual system operation assumptions, is also evaluated. Findings demonstrate that the proposed frequency nadir constraint notably improves the system's frequency nadir under high photovoltaic (PV) penetration levels, albeit with a slight increase in generation costs, when compared to the alternative minimum inertia constraint.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Frequency-Nadir-Constrained Unit Commitment for Low-Inertia, High-IBR Island Power Systems [Slides]

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Distributionally Robust Decision Making Leveraging Conditional Distributions

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a powerful tool for decision making under uncertainty. It is particularly appealing because of its ability to leverage existing data. However, many practical problems call for decision-making with some auxiliary information, and DRO in the context of conditional distributions is not straightforward. We propose a conditional kernel distributionally robust optimization (CKDRO) method that enables robust decision making under conditional distributions through kernel DRO and the conditional mean operator in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). In particular, we consider problems where there is a correlation between the unknown variable y and an auxiliary observable variable x. Given past data of the two variables and a queried auxiliary variable, CKDRO represents the conditional distribution P(y|x) as the conditional mean operator in the RKHS space and quantifies the ambiguity set in the RKHS as well, which depends on the size of the dataset as well as the query point. To justify the use of RKHS, we demonstrate that the ambiguity set defined in RKHS can be viewed as a ball under a metric that is similar to the Wasserstein metric. The DRO is then dualized and solved via a finite dimensional convex program. The proposed CKDRO approach is applied to a generation scheduling problem and shows that the result of CKDRO is superior to common benchmarks in terms of quality and robustness.

Chen, Yuxiao↗