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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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The influence of fire aerosols on surface climate and gross primary production in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Fire-emitted aerosols play an important role in influencing Earth’s climate, directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by influencing cloud microphysics. The quantification of fire-aerosol interactions, however, remains challenging and subject to uncertainties in emissions, plume parameterizations, and aerosol properties. Here we optimized fire-associated aerosol emissions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) using the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations during 1997-2016. Furthermore, we distributed fire emissions vertically using smoke plume heights from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) satellite observations. From the optimization, we estimate that global fires emit 45.5 Tg y -1 of primary particulate organic matter and 3.9 Tg y -1 of black carbon. We then performed two climate simulations with and without the optimized fire emissions. We find that fire aerosols significantly increase global AOD by 14 ± 7% and contribute to a reduction in net shortwave radiation at the surface (-2.3 ± 0.5 W m -2 ). Together, fire-induced direct and indirect aerosol effects cause annual mean global land surface air temperature to decrease by 0.17 ± 0.15°C, relative humidity to increase by 0.4 ± 0.3%, and diffuse light fraction to increase by 0.5 ± 0.3%. In response, GPP declines by 2.8 Pg C y -1 , as a result of large positive drivers (decreases in temperature and increases in humidity and diffuse light) nearly cancelling out large negative drivers (decreases shortwave radiation and soil moisture). Our analysis highlights the importance of fire aerosols in modifying surface climate and photosynthesis across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗

ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth system models (ESMs). Alternatively, fire models based on machine learning (ML), which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0) that integrates an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran–C–Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001–2019, the ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. The ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 has proven to be a new tool for studying vegetation–fire interactions and, more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate–fire feedback, working as an active component of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗

Volatile Organic Compounds and Meteorological Conditions in the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) Site, 2023

This data set contains measurements of atmospheric components and meteorological conditions of central Missouri, United States during the summer of 2023. Data serve to examine the impact of meteorological conditions relevant to future climate on the emission and transformation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). During the field campaign, researchers were also able to incorporate opportunistic analyses of the long-range transport of smoke plumes generated from extreme forest fire activities in Canada. VOC measurements were conducted at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site (latitude 38.7441, longitude −92.2000) using a proton transfer reaction time of flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS 6000 X2). The sampling campaign was conducted during the summer of 2023 (2023-06-25 to 2023-08-12) with measurements being taken at high temporal resolution (1 hour). Particular VOCs analyzed include: Methanol, Acetonitrile, Acetone, Isoprene, Methylvinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACr), Benzene, Toluene, Catechol, and Monoterpene. Meteorological parameters included in this dataset were collected from a nearby Columbia Regional Airport (~10 km). Global solar radiation data were measured at a weather site in Ashland, MO, 5.22 km from the MOFLUX tower. The data were accessed using the MesoWest online website (https://mesowest.utah.edu/) provided by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah. Discussion of the data providers, database, and dissemination were highlighted in prior studies (Horel et al., 2002a; Horel et al., 2002b) . Smoke mixing ratios (in mg m−3) were estimated from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3 km weather model for Missouri at 6-hour intervals (Dowell et al., 2022). This dataset contains three data files in comma separate (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: three data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

Acetone↗

CO2 Capture Strategies via Mineralization with Industrial Waste Brines

Large coal-fired power plants (>500 MW) account for 30% of global CO2 emissions, and long-term management of this CO2 to is urgently needed mitigate global temperature increases. Sequestration of CO2 within stable mineral carbonates (e.g., CaCO3) represents an attractive emission reduction strategy because it offers a leakage-free alternative to geological storage of CO2 in an environmentally friendly form. We have previously described a mineralization process in which divalent cations are sourced from various waste streams (e.g., produced water and brackish water) and alkalinity is induced via regenerable ion-exchange materials (Bustillos et. al. Frontiers in Energy Research. 2020, 8, 352). In our process, aqueous carbonate-bearing streams with pH > 8 are produced by contacting fresh water and carbon dioxide with various ion-exchange materials (e.g., Na form zeolites or ion exchange resins). These streams are mixed with produced water containing varying concentrations (~0.01 – 1.0 M) of Ca2+ leading to the precipitation of solid calcium carbonate (PCC). This process has the advantages of using regenerable solids in a simple and continuous process to increase the pH of water by ion exchange instead of relying on the consumption of costly and unsustainable sources of alkalinity (e.g., sodium hydroxide). While once-through column experiments showed the above benefits, the same were yet to established in a steady-state process with recycle streams. In this work, we set up a process simulation to quantify the energy requirements and CO2 emissions associated with the process and seek optimal produced water compositions and CO2 concentrations (5 – 20 vol%). The process simulation was set up in ASPEN Plus using eRNTL as the thermodynamic property method and sequential modular strategy. Ion exchange alkaline solution was simulated using sodium hydroxide and validated against the experimental data obtained from once-through kinetic experiments. Nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membrane steps were also implemented for the separation of divalent cations and production of fresh water and a regeneration stream following mineralization. Sensitivity analysis was carried out using a range of produced water compositions (0.01 – 1.0 M Ca2+, 0.001 – 0.15 M Mg2+, 0.5 – 3.5 M Na+ and 0.0004 – 0.002 M Fe2+) according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) database. Calcium carbonate yields increased with increasing CO2 concentrations and were maximized using produced water compositions with larger Ca2+ concentrations. Maximum calcium carbonate yields produced at 5 vol%, 12 vol% and 20 vol% CO2 were 2.3 mmol/L, 5.5 mmol/L, and 9.3 mmol/L, respectively, with the formation of brucite (a magnesium hydroxide phase, Mg(OH)2) and goethite (an iron hydroxide phase, FeOOH) as the primary contaminant phases (99% calcite, 0.6% brucite, 0.4% goethite), which agree with phases detected by XRD experimentally. These results indicate high purity calcium carbonate can be precipitated using industrial waste streams. Consequentially, energy consumption and net CO2 emissions were minimized where precipitated calcium carbonate was maximized for all produced water compositions and CO2 concentrations. Minimum energy consumptions were 0.21 kWh/ton CO2 processed, with 98% of the energy input required coming from the membrane filtration steps. Produced water compositions with large Na+ concentrations (> 0.5 M) were effective at reducing energy consumptions due to faster regeneration time of ion exchange materials. Additionally, calculated net CO2 emissions were negative for the process and ranged from -0.02 kg/ton CO2 to -0.15 kg/ton CO2 processed, indicating a low emission process. We will also present techno-economic assessment showing the economic benefits of the current process as an alternative to the addition of stoichiometric bases to induce alkalinity for the precipitation of CaCO3.

Simonetti, Dante↗

Retrofitting Holcim Ste. Genevieve Cement Plant with CO2 Capture Plant Using Air Liquide Cryocap™ FG Technology

The global cement manufacturing industry is a major contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. The International Energy Agency's "Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario" identifies CCS as a major strategy for meeting that goal. This project is among the first attempts to transfer capture technology developed at coal-fired power plants to the cement industry. The main objective of the project is to execute and complete a front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for commercial-scale, carbon capture projects that separates 95% of the total CO2 emissions at the Holcim (US) Ste. Genevieve cement manufacturing facility using Air Liquide’s Pressure Swing Adsorption system (PSA) assisted Cryocap™ technology. The Holcim Ste. Genevieve cement plant in Missouri, US, boasts one of the largest single cement production lines in the world, with a capacity of approximately 12,000 t/day. The plant currently uses traditional fuels, namely coal and petcoke. The captured CO2 will be pipeline and geological storage grade. The industrial host site emits approximately 3.0 million tonne CO2/yr. Air Liquide’s Cryocap™ technology has been developed over the last 18+ years for CO2 capture applications. It has been shown to be applicable to a variety of industrial applications (e.g., steel, cement, SMR, Fluidized Catalytic Crackers (FCCs)). Cryocap™ FG consists of a Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) unit coupled with a Cryogenic System. The PSA pre-concentrates the CO2 from the flue gas, while the cryogenic unit enables the CO2 purity to be increased to the desired level. The project team is led by the Prairie Research Institute at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The tasks include: complete FEED study for retrofitting the industrial facility with a carbon capture system to support developing a detailed cost estimate; business case analysis outlining the anticipated revenue and credits if projects was built and operated; technoeconomic analysis (TEA) outlining how capture system achieves DOE capture goals; and life cycle (LCA) analysis demonstrating zero net carbon emissions. The FEED study was successfully completed. This includes completing the process basis of design; preliminary engineering; outside battery limits (OSBL) detailed engineering including a Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) wastewater treatment system; inside battery limits (ISBL) detailed engineering [1]. An overall project capital cost estimate within a -20%/+30% accuracy was developed. The major contributors to the Total Plant Cost (TPC), by system, are the costs associated with the Outside Battery Limit (OSBL) section of the plant which includes a new river water intake structure and a Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) system. By cost category, the major contributors to the TPC are equipment and subcontractor costs, followed closely by engineering, construction management, home office and contractor fees. The TEA has been created to reflect the findings of the project. It analyzes the economic performance of the Cryocap™ technology by reviewing the estimated capital costs, operating cost, and revenue. The Cost of Capture (COC) associated with the Cryocap™ technology for 95% CO2 capture, when considering NETL 2018 economic assumptions (42/58 debt/equity ratio, 5.15% interest on debt and 1.42% return on equity in real dollars) and 2022 economic assumptions (42/58 debt/equity ratio, 8.82% interest on debt and 4.90% return on equity in real dollars) was found to be much lower than that for the DOE-NETL’s base-line cases. The highest contributors to the COC are annualized capital expenditures (CAPEX) and electricity consumption which can be offset by using lower cost renewable sources. The LCA was conducted using OpenLCA which is an open-source software that is recommended by NETL. The database utilized for this study was a modified version of TRACI 2.1 (developed by the US. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Risk Management Research Laboratory and modified by NETL). The Cryocap™ FG technology does not consume fuels in significant quantities and does not utilize specialized chemical solvents subject to decomposition, such as those utilized in amine-based carbon capture systems. The Cryocap™ FG technology mainly utilizes electricity as its energy input; hence, its calculated emissions are mainly associated with the generation of electricity offsite and are dependent on the energy matrix of the grid at the time of project implementation. The water consumption impact of the Cryocap™ FG is mostly for makeup of the water lost by evaporation in the cooling tower; however, the carbon capture plant will be equipped with a ZLD system to avoid effluent streams and minimize water consumption. The successful construction and operation of this plant based on this study results will provide a means to demonstrate an economically attractive and transformational capture technology that can be used to retrofit existing plants and be deployed at new plants.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗