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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Linearization errors in discrete goal-oriented error estimation

This paper is concerned with goal-oriented a posteriori error estimation for nonlinear functionals in the context of nonlinear variational problems solved with continuous Galerkin finite element discretizations. A two-level, or discrete, adjoint-based approach for error estimation is considered. The traditional method to derive an error estimate in this context requires linearizing both the nonlinear variational form and the nonlinear functional of interest which introduces linearization errors into the error estimate. In this paper, we investigate these linearization errors. In particular, we develop a novel discrete goal-oriented error estimate that accounts for traditionally neglected nonlinear terms at the expense of greater computational cost. We demonstrate how this error estimate can be used to drive mesh adaptivity. Here, we show that accounting for linearization errors in the error estimate can improve its effectivity for several nonlinear model problems and quantities of interest. We also demonstrate that an adaptive strategy based on the newly proposed estimate can lead to more accurate approximations of the nonlinear functional with fewer degrees of freedom when compared to uniform refinement and traditional adjoint-based approaches.

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Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Goated: goal-oriented tensor decompositions in python

SAND2026-20464O Goated performs goal-oriented tensor decompositions in Python, enabling efficient compression of multi-dimensional simulation data. It extends common tensor decomposition methods by incorporating domain-specific knowledge, such as conservation laws in physics, through a penalty term in the optimization process. This approach improves data compression and modeling accuracy across various applications, including physics simulations, by using specialized algorithms and structure-aware subroutines to accelerate solver performance. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

A note on the reliability of goal-oriented error estimates for Galerkin finite element methods with nonlinear functionals

Here, we consider estimating the discretization error in a nonlinear functional J (u) in the setting of an abstract variational problem: find u ϵ $\mathscr{V}$ such that B (u, φ) = L (φ) ∀φ ϵ $\mathscr{V}$, as approximated by a Galerkin finite element method. Here, $\mathscr{V}$ is a Hilbert space, B (. , .) is a bilinear form, and L (∙) is a linear functional. We consider well-known error estimates η of the form J (u) - J (u h ) ≈ η = L (z) - B (u h , z), where u h denotes a finite element approximation to u, and z denotes the solution to an auxiliary adjoint variational problem. We show that there exist nonlinear functionals for which error estimates of this form are not reliable, even in the presence of an exact adjoint solution z. An estimate η is said to be reliable if there exists a constant C ϵ $\mathbb{R}$ >0 independent of u h such that |J (u) - J (u h )| ≤ C|η|. We present several example pairs of bilinear forms and nonlinear functionals where reliability of η is not achieved.

A posteriori↗

Inverse design of hypoeutectoid pearlite steel microstructures using a deep learning and genetic algorithm optimization framework

Goal-oriented microstructure design in metallic materials is a challenging task due to complex structure-property relationships. Traditional experimental and computational approaches are time-intensive and economically inefficient, limiting their applicability for large-scale design space exploration. Here, in this work, we propose an end-to-end framework that integrates deep learning models with genetic optimization to design microstructures with targeted mechanical properties. Deep learning models enable accurate forward design, while their integration with genetic optimization enables efficient inverse design within a few hours, compared to days or weeks using conventional finite element simulations. The framework combines experimental characterization and finite element modeling to analyze the influence of microstructural features on the mechanical behavior of hypoeutectoid steels. Data from both experiments and simulations are used to train the deep learning models. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we apply the framework to 0.63% carbon steel with proeutectoid ferrite and pearlite phases, commonly used in industrial applications. In this study, 2D microstructures were used for modeling, selected primarily for computational efficiency and to establish proof of concept. The framework successfully optimizes microstructures for targeted yield strength, ultimate strength, and stress concentration factors while significantly reducing computational time. Beyond hypoeutectoid steels, this scalable framework can be extended to other material systems and integrated with additive manufacturing, offering an efficient approach for accelerating microstructure design for specific engineering applications.

ConvLSTM↗

Rapid Bayesian High Entropy Alloy Designs Fabricated via Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing

Purpose: This project seeks to demonstrate a new high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique applied to creating new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments. High entropy alloys shift the design paradigm from being focused on a single principal element (e.g. nickel-based alloys) to target alloys that include high atomic fractions (X >10%) of multiple elements. These HEA materials can exhibit sluggish diffusion and enhanced corrosion resistance, ideal for potential applications in advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. Scope: The addition of multiple elements in high atomic fractions creates an enormous design space that cannot easily be investigated by traditional material design strategies such as designed of experiments (DOE). This project utilizes a Bayesian machine learning algorithm that has been modified to work with calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) software. This Bayesian algorithm reduces manual inputs and increase the likelihood of achieving an optimal solution. Compositional inputs to this algorithm will be assessed using existing material property models for high temperature strength and corrosion resistance. The target for alloy performance will be a 15% (~100 ⁰C) increase in allowable service temperature beyond heat-resistant stainless steels while maintaining or improving alloy cost and corrosion resistance. Haynes 230 was selected as a baseline, which is 57 wt% Ni with 22 wt% Cr 14 wt% W, and 2 wt% Mo as solid solution strengtheners. In addition to rapid design via Bayesian machine learning, the alloys were rapidly fabricated using a multi-wire arc additive manufacturing (mWAAM) technique which allows for precise control of alloy composition and assessing of alloy design “windows” to study composition effects. Build speeds for wire-arc additive processes are among the highest for additive technologies enabling rapid and reliable sample fabrication when compared to conventional methods such as arc button melting. The mWAAM samples will be rapidly characterized via instrumented indentation for room temperature modulus and strength and for elevated temperature strength via hot hardness tests. After being screened with hardness testing, potential alloys will be further evaluated with conventional microscopy techniques including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to assess agreement with modeling results. The most promising compositions will also be evaluated by printing full sized tensile specimens for mechanical behavior tests at elevated temperatures. Results: Bayesian machine learning of a single performance function was initially used to optimize five performance metrics: 1) single phase stability, 2) yield strength, 3) creep resistance (low diffusion coefficient), 4) freezing range (weldability), and 5) material cost. The single performance function was suboptimal as assumptions had to be made about the results while formulating the optimization. A goal-oriented Bayesian optimization strategy (Hanaoka, 2021) was implemented with CALPHAD for use with the five metrics above. This multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) enabled the design of NiCrCoFe alloys with V and W additions. A base composition of NiCoCr was selected as Ni provides a stable FCC matrix, Cr aids corrosion/oxidation resistance, and Co is a solid-solutions strengthener that also improves creep by increasing the activation energy. Fe helps reduce diffusion coefficients and cost. Finally, V and W were selected for their reasonable solubility and high atomic misfit to aid in solid solution strengthening. Cracking of the mWAAM specimens was an early issue, and the Easton solidification cracking model (Easton et al., 2014a) was selected for addition to the MOBO function. High performing alloys fabricated by mWAAM included Ni 28 Cr 25 Co 26 Fe 15 V 8 and Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 . It was observed that even after adapting the mWAAM process for W, the W did not fully dissolve. To fully evaluate the Ni 62 Cr 18 Co 1 Fe 3 W 15 composition, a cored wire (80-20 NiCr sheath/powder core) was manufactured and printed via WAAM, and HIP’ing was utilized to homogenize and densify the printed alloy. The V and W alloys produced met metrics 1 (solid solution), 4 (solidification cracking), and 5 (cost). However, an unmodeled mechanism of thermal stress cracking was identified in the WAAM produced materials, perhaps exacerbated by the lack of grain boundary strengthening elements (B, C). Conclusions & Recommendations: A high-throughput (rapid) alloy design technique was applied to designing and manufacturing new high entropy alloys (HEAs) for extreme environments utilizing MOBO and mWAAM. The developed process was rapid and effective in addressing the mechanisms included in the model. The lack of grain boundary strengthening element additions (e.g., B, C) was a simplification that likely produced thermal stress cracking that turned into a large part of the investigation. Additions on the order of 0.005 wt% B and 0.05 wt% C likely would have minimized thermal stress grain boundary cracking. Overall, the high throughput design strategy is promising for rapid design of metrics-driven alloys for advanced ultra supercritical (A-USC) steam cycles for power generation. The MOBO and mWAAM process could be commercialized to accelerate metrics-driven alloy design. In addition, the cored-wire process utilized for scale-up is a promising high-volume process for WAAM alloy development and scale-up.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluating Energy Savings Measures for Building Retrofits in an Interactive Workshop Environment

As part of the Better Buildings Summit 2025, a workshop was developed to simulate the decision process for implementing a set of energy savings measures on an existing building. As part of the workshop a "game" was created around energy savings strategies, and workshop participants selected renovation cards that provided data around the impacts of that renovation choice. Participants then were able to calculate overall savings and payback from the selected retrofit opportunities. This publication has been produced to package the resources used in the activity in an organized document so that the materials can be distributed and reused more broadly. It provides a comprehensive framework for replicating the workshop, including step-by-step instructions, retrofit "game cards" with data points, and facilitation guidance. By using these materials, readers can conduct their own version of this interactive workshop with stakeholders in their networks, such as building owners, energy managers, or policy makers. The goal is to empower users to simulate the decision-making processes for energy projects, foster collaboration, and drive meaningful discussions around cost-effective retrofit opportunities and goal-oriented outcomes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Ecohydrology of urban environments

Urban watersheds include a gradient of highly managed to unmanaged ecosystems that vary in vegetation cover, built and natural drainage systems, and impervious cover. A distinct difference to undeveloped ecosystems is the dominance of material and energy import and export, the disruption of natural catenae, the covariation of soils, terrain and canopy conditions. In this chapter, we discuss the distinct characteristics of urban ecohydrology compared to non-urban systems. We also investigate emergent principles of unmanaged watersheds that underscore the promotion of ecohydrological resilience, and the need to abstract and adapt these principles to support the goal-oriented restoration of impaired urban ecosystems.

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