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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Achieving Sustainability Goals by Projecting the Sustainable Agriculture Matrix Into the Future

The concept of sustainability inherently spans multiple spatial scales, sectors, variables, and time horizons. This study links a recently developed method of assessing present-day agricultural sustainability across environmental, economic, and social dimensions with a process-based integrated assessment model, in order to allow forward-looking analysis of sustainability by region and scenario. The sustainable agriculture matrix estimates present-day agricultural sustainability at the national level using 18 indicator variables, of which this study estimates nine to the year 2100, using an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model. Scenarios include a reference scenario, and scenarios that apply the following measures, both individually and in combination, that are thought to improve sustainability: yield intensification, transition toward more plant-based (“flexitarian”) diets, and economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. The scenarios illustrate considerable complexity and tradeoffs inherent to efforts to improve agricultural sustainability in all regions globally. For example, yield intensification typically increases nitrogen pollution, flexitarian diets can reduce agricultural output, and greenhouse gas mitigation efforts may either increase deforestation or crowd out crop and livestock production due to consequent bioenergy demands. However, there is considerable inter-regional heterogeneity in the responses, and the importance of such secondary responses also differs by region. The analysis and post-processing methods developed in this study allow quantification and visualization of the absolute and relative magnitude of the tradeoffs between agricultural sustainability indicator variables across regions, time periods, and scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Hydrodynamic Instabilities, Shocks, and Radiation Waves in High Energy Density Experiments [Dissertation]

This thesis presents the computational design, modeling, and analysis of three experiments in high-energy density physics (HEDP), all of them concerning fundamental radiation flows. The first experiment is a laboratory astrophysics experiment to investigate the role of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) in the process of galactic filaments supplying gas to galactic halos. The achieved goal was to provide a first study in which the role of the instability is maximal and predict behavior in future iterations of an experiment accessing a more radiative regime where the role of the instability is stifled. This experiment would help answer how certain galaxies are able to grow so rapidly and produce many stars as the KHI limits this process. The second experiment, COAX, is a radiation flow experiment with a novel spectroscopy diagnostic configuration, designed to spatially measure the temperature of a radiation wave as it travels down a doped foam. A key result of this work was the development of a synthetic spectroscopy application and application of modern spectroscopy comparison techniques to provide our first temperature reconstructions from the experimental data. This experimental platform serves as the launching ground for a number of new experiments that vary the basic premise and thus is foundational to our ongoing research. The final experiment is a full integration of modeling, design, and theoretical development for the Radishock experiment. This experimental platform studies the head-on collision of a radiation wave with a counter-propagating shock, and like COAX, uses spectroscopy to diagnose and detect the interaction. My research analyzes the successful shots, indicating aspects of successful detections and suggests improvements to future iterations of the design.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Recovery of Medical Isotope 188 W from Irradiated W Metal Target - A New Approach

Tungsten-188 is in widespread use in 188 W(t 1/2 = 69 d )/ 188 Re(t 1/2 = 16.9 h ) biomedical generators. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has been providing this product to the world since 1999. At ORNL, 188 W is produced via irradiation in ORNL’s High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Enriched 186 W targets in the form of sintered metallic pellets or rings achieve a compact loading in the irradiation vessel, providing a high yield per unit target. The enrichment of the target is >90% 186 W, and this isotope undergoes double neutron capture to produce the desired 188 W product. While 188 W is produced by neutron bombardment, 191 Os(t 1/2 = 15.4 d ) is simultaneously produced as a by-product and expected to be separated from 188 W by postirradiation treatment.In the current processing pathway, the irradiated W metal rings are first converted into an oxide form of WO 3 by heating the irradiated W metal target at 750°C in a quartz reaction vessel inside a vertical furnace under a constant flow of air. During heating, W metal reacts with oxygen in the air to produce WO 3 , which is soluble in 6 M NaOH for preparation of 188 W product. This oxidation process also converts 188 Os (the decay daughter of 188 W) and 191 Os (15.4 d , the irradiation produced byproduct) into OsO 4 , a highly volatile and toxic gas. The gaseous effluents driven from the quartz reaction vessel are passed through a scrubbing array to remove OsO 4 before the air is discharged from the process. This heterogeneous oxidation method simultaneously achieves goals of (1) converting metal target to a soluble oxide form and (2) removing volatile OsO 4 away from the solid WO 3 product by air flow and absorbing the harmful Os species by the scrubbing array. But this method has two potential problems as well: (1) O 2 reacts with only W metal at high temperatures, not with W alloyed with other elements. The O 2 –W reaction will be retarded when formation of WRe or WC occurs, or even when a layer of non-W materials on the surface of the irradiated W rings.; (2) 100% absorption of OsO 4 of high yield (>90%) from the reaction of Os + O 2 is a strict requirement to the OsO 4 scrubbing system--so NaOH scrubbers of a redundant size (2x 1.5 L) are in use for safety reasons.To resolve above two potential problems, direct dissolution of the irradiated W metal target by a selected reagent is a preferred pathway to avoid heating step with generation of tremendous amount of volatile OsO 4 . Hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) is such a candidate to dissolve W in forms of either metal or alloys, although literature lacks information of solubilities of Re or Os in H 2 O 2 . With experimental results of dissolving non-radioactive W, Re and Os in H 2 O 2 under various conditions, this report illustrates a method of H 2 O 2 dissolution for irradiated W target, with a complete dissolution of W and Re, but ≤10% dissolution of Os (converted into gaseous OsO 4 and carried out into a scrubbing for absorption) during processing irradiated W target. The portion of undissolved Os can be separated from W solution by a follow up filtration step. Solubilities of W, Re and Os in H 2 O 2 at a temperature range from 14° to 50°C are presented. And a dissolution rate of W metal per surface area of W metal in H 2 O 2 is calculated based on results of dissolving a W metal cylinder of known surface area in H 2 O 2 at room temperature without stirring.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bio-Inspired Catalysts Featuring Earth Abundant Metals and Secondary Coordination Sphere Interactions for the Reduction of Oxyanions

The scientifically challenging problem of catalytically reducing oxyanions was explored and presented great opportunities in terms of the environment, economics and energy self-sufficiency. Oxyanions are pervasive as they are found in many areas of technology, all forms of life, in minerals, and as synthetic materials. Given their ubiquity, the contamination of inorganic oxyanions in drinking water is a national problem as 26 states and Puerto Rico have reported high concentrations of these harmful pollutants. The goals achieved by this research was to catalytically reduce oxyanions utilizing sustainable earth abundant catalysts featuring bio-inspired ligands. This worked allowed us to gain fundamental insights into what dictates the reduction/reactivity for these anions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aspatial Oxyanion Reduction Catalysis

The scientifically challenging problem of catalytically reducing oxyanions was explored and presented great opportunities in terms of the environment, economics and energy self-sufficiency. Oxyanions are pervasive as they are found in many areas of technology, all forms of life, in minerals, and as synthetic materials. Given their ubiquity, the contamination of inorganic oxyanions in drinking water is a national problem as 26 states and Puerto Rico have reported high concentrations of these harmful pollutants. The goals achieved by this research was to catalytically investigate the reduction of new oxyanions utilizing sustainable earth abundant catalysts featuring bio-inspired ligands. Further, ligand modifications will be explored to understand the impact on oxyanion reduction, mechanistic studies, and for electrocatalytic oxyanion reduction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative risk assessment examples for underground hydrogen storage facilities

Hydrogen energy storage can be used to achieve goals of national energy security, renewable energy integration, and grid resilience. Adapting underground natural gas storage facility (UNGSF) infrastructure for underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is one method of storing large quantities of hydrogen that has already largely been proven to work for natural gas. There are currently some underground salt caverns in the United States that are being used for hydrogen storage by commercial entities, but it is still a fairly new concept in that it has not been widely deployed nor has it been done with other geologic formations like depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Assessments of UHS systems can help identify and evaluate risks to people both working within the facility and residing nearby. This report provides example risk assessment methodologies and analyses for generic wellhead and processing facility configurations, specifically in the context of the risks of unintentional hydrogen releases into the air. Assessment of the hydrogen containment in the subsurface is also critically important for a safety assessment for a UHS facility, but those geomechanical assessments are not included in this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Twentieth Exotic Beam Summer School (EBSS2023)

The study of unstable nuclei with unusual ratios of protons to neutrons is one of the frontiers of science. Investigating these rare isotopes is critical for understanding the synthesis of the chemical elements in stellar explosions as well as the fundamental nature of the nuclear forces that bind atomic nuclei together. Scientific progress in this field is driven by the development of exotic beams in present and next-generation rare-isotope beam facilities including the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). Nuclear physics is a broad discipline, influencing our knowledge on subjects as diverse as weakly-bound nuclei, many-body quantum theory, the super heavy elements, and the inner structure of neutron stars. Applications based on nuclear science and technologies include medical diagnostics and therapies, materials science, and national security. The major goal achieved in this project was to hold Exotic Beam Summer School 2023 (EBSS2023), the twentieth installment of EBSS series, July 9-15, 2023 at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams on the campus of Michigan State University to educate and train the next generation of scientists that will drive research with rare-isotope beams. FRIB became operational in 2022 and is now providing beams of exotic nuclei that will ramp up to unmatched intensities, exceeding what is available today by orders of magnitude. Beams available at FRIB are facilitating a wide variety of studies in nuclear structure, astrophysics, fundamental symmetries and societal applications. There is a large community of scientists interested in working with rare isotope beams; for example, the FRIB User Organization currently has over 1,700 members. In order to maximize the scientific output of FRIB, there must be a workforce continuously trained in both the physics of exotic beams and in the practical techniques of carrying out an experiment. This summer school series is designed to specifically address this need - to ensure that new generations of scientists from a broad range of institutions and backgrounds is trained, motivated, and equipped to push the field forward to new and important breakthroughs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Gamification to Enhance Mastery of Network Security Concepts

Gamification has proven to be effective in engaging and encouraging people to work towards and achieve goals. Many students struggle to focus on schoolwork, due to a lack of interest, lack of understanding, or other factors unique to the student. Applying gamification elements to education can help engage these students in learning their course material and help them excel academically. This study examines the effectiveness of using gamification techniques to enhance the learning experience in college Computer Science courses. A video game application is utilized to review and reinforce cybersecurity concepts that students have already been taught in class. Previous work has been made on a prototype game build that teaches about ARP (Address Resolution Protocol) components. The focus of this study is to refine and develop the structure of the prototype into a more interactive and enjoyable format with non-competitive and captivating activities that allow students to study at their own pace. An updated version of the game was created that focused on reaching a balance between education and entertainment. The game was used by students enrolled in a cybersecurity class, where pre-survey, post-survey and a focus group interview were conducted to determine how effective the updated version is compared to the current build, in addition to how effective the gamification method is regarding student retention of taught material. The pre-survey and post-survey results revealed an increase in interest and mastery of cybersecurity concepts as a result of playing the game. Students found value in the game as both a method of reviewing material taught in class and an entertaining and engaging game. These results show potential in using gamification in cybersecurity and education.

Hilliard, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Economy-wide Net-Zero Emissions: Is it an impossible goal?

Meeting growing energy demands while eliminating emissions, maintaining affordability, and ensuring energy justice is one of the most significant grand challenges of our time. Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. In the U.S., this equates to a net-zero electricity sector by 2035 and across all energy use sectors—including electricity, industry, and transportation—by 2050. The key question then becomes: Can we get there from here? Meeting these aggressive goals demands immediate action, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Currently, almost 85% of global energy demands are met by unabated fossil fuels. That means we have a lot of work to do, and we need to consider all of the non-emitting generation options available in each region—including fossil with carbon capture, renewables, and nuclear. And we need to reach our goal while establishing energy justice, which refers to the goal of achieving equity in social and economic participation in the energy system, while remediating past social, economic, and health burdens on communities that have been brought about by our energy system. This presentation will describe U.S. and global efforts focused on novel energy system solutions that strive to maximize use of all clean energy generation options to meet our energy demands, while ensuring sustainability, customer affordability, and a just energy system.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photovoltaic Deployment Scenarios toward Global Decarbonization: Role of Disruptive Technologies

To totally decarbonize global electrical systems using photovoltaics (PVs) in the 2050–2060 decade, the world would need to install 63.4 TW of PV. This article models and explores how a PV manufacturing ramp‐up trajectory toward this goal can be achieved while assuming that investors continue to make financially rational decisions avoiding stranded production assets and therefore protecting their return on investment. The model effectively exploits experience curve benefits in both the scaling of the manufacturing process and continued progress in product design technologies. The scale‐up challenge is amplified because trajectories that achieve this goal require an unprecedented ramp‐up of production capacity over just two decades, followed by relatively modest demand to maintain the installed base and support continued population growth. It is demonstrated that sustainable ramp‐up of manufacturing is indeed possible and shown that the deployment of the requisite manufacturing capacity can be accelerated and accomplished at lower total capital cost by the introduction of disruptive technologies that have lower capital intensity, embedded energy, or higher efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Mechanistic Co-Design Towards Room-Temperature Organic, Optical, and Multiple-Center Molecular Qubits

The next generation of qubits, the building blocks of quantum technologies, are designed using molecules. Molecular qubits have natural advantages over solid-state equivalents in biological and chemical sensing. Chemistry allows the properties of molecular qubits to be fine-tuned, such as the ability of multiple qubits to work together using qubit-qubit coupling. Molecules and structures containing multiple qubits, made from both inorganic and organic elements, are developed in this work to bring quantum technologies closer to room-temperature operation. The goal is achieved by understanding how the core of the qubit, known as spin, interacts with the vibrating parts of the molecule, other spins, and the surrounding environment. A combined approach involving theory, spectroscopy, and synthesis is used to achieve the design goal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of Advanced, Radiation Resistant, Optical-based Detector Technology for Future Experiments.

The primary objective of this project has been to advance the design of high-performance electromagnetic (EM) calorimeters for future particle physics experiments, to identify and measure the timing, position and energy of electrons, positrons and gamma rays, particularly in high-luminosity environments with intense radiation and pileup conditions. To meet such challenges, the proposed research has focused on the development of ultra-compact, radiation-hard calorimeter modules, to provide excellent timing, spatial, and energy resolution. The work aligns with the DOE’s Basic Research Needs (BRN) for High Energy Physics (HEP) Instrumentation and the research team contributes actively to the Coordinating Panel on Advanced Detectors (CPAD) RDC9 calorimetry collaboration in the USA and the European Committee on Future Accelerators (ECFA) DRD-CALO calorimetry collaboration at CERN, the European Laboratory for Particle Physics located in Geneva, Switzerland. The research builds on the RADiCAL (radiation-hard, ultra-compact) modular sampling calorimeter approach, developed by the research team, which employs dense and very bright optical materials such as LYSO:Ce scintillator plates that are interleaved with very dense tungsten plates to minimize detector size while optimizing performance. The modules are comparable in size to a human index finger, dimensionally 14 mm x 14 mm in cross section and 135 mm in length. And despite the small size, the structure is capable of providing excellent timing and energy resolution. This is facilitated through the use of specialized quartz capillaries filled with wavelength-shifting filaments, positioned at various depths along the length of a module, to collect and guide light signals to silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) which detect and convert the optical signals to electronic signals for analysis. The primary goals of this project have been: (1) Achieve a timing resolution to σ t ≤ 30 ps for high-energy electrons and photons, important for their association with specific events produced in colliding-beam experiments and for the detection of decays-in-flight of long-lived particles. The project has achieved this goal in beam tests of a single RADiCAL module at CERN, during which a timing resolution of σ t = 27 ps was measured for electrons of energy E = 150 GeV. Based upon a mathematical fit to the data measured over a broad energy range from low energy to high energy, a resolution of σ t ≤ 18 ps has been estimated for electrons of very high (TeV) energy. From these measurements and with further expected technical improvements, the timing resolution should reach σ t ≤ 10 ps, important for searches for discovery physics in upcoming and future experiments. (2) Achieve an energy resolution of σ E / E ≤ 10% / $\sqrt{E}$. The project has yet to achieve this goal, but is close to it, having measured a value of σ E / E ≤ 15.9% / $\sqrt{E}$ using a modular array. Ultimately, the resolution goal is expected to be reached by adjustments to material thicknesses within the modules, which will improve the sampling fraction to measure more precisely the shower energy for lower energy particles. The versatility of the modular RADiCAL approach enables the testing of advanced materials, photosensors and electronics, developed in collaboration with CPAD RDC and ECFA DRD-CALO groups. The structure can distinguish electrons, positrons and gamma rays from hadrons and muons and beam-induced backgrounds, making it a valuable tool in a variety of detector environments, including future circular colliders (FCC-ee, FCC-hh) proposed for the European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN), the muon-collider proposed for Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab), and searches for new physics in beam-dump, fixed target and forward-physics experiments. And, while designed with particle physics applications in mind, the technologies developed in this project have the potential for application more broadly in particle and nuclear physics, materials science, and medical physics, underscoring the far-reaching potential of this line of instrumentation research and development.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

AFC Metallic Fuel Research and Development 5-Year Plan

The mission of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Fuel Campaign (AFC) program is conducting R&D on nuclear fuel technology that enables near- and long-term implementation of the reactor systems necessary to meet national nuclear energy objectives. Its primary goals align with goals of the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy in sustaining the current LWR fleet through Accident Tolerant Fuels program and Enabling Advanced Reactors. The latter goal is to be achieved through the following subgoals in order of logistical priority: • Establish the qualification basis for reference metallic fuel designs for sodium-cooled fast reactors. • Develop next generation metallic fuel fabrication and design for improved fissile utilization and management. • Develop accelerated fuel development and qualification methodologies. • Identify next generation fuel technologies. The purpose of this document is to serve as a five-year research and development (R&D) plan to achieve the goals identified to support enabling advanced reactor deployment related to metallic fuels starting in 2025. The specific objectives of this document are to: • align program R&D work across technical areas, national laboratories, and with stakeholder interests, and • aid yearly and outyear scope and budgetary planning activities. This plan lays the foundation of databases, capabilities, expertise, and research-commercial-regulatory integration for launching next-generation initiatives in advanced fuel technologies (fuel and cladding) and improved methodologies for achieving accelerated qualification of next generation fuel technologies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen and its Vital Role in a Clean Energy Future

Large-scale, low -cost hydrogen production can enable an economically competitive, secure, and environmentally beneficial future energy system across multiple sectors. Furthermore, clean hydrogen can address specific sectors that are hard to decarbonize (e.g., heavy-duty trucking, load-following electricity, iron, steel, and cement) and can help the U.S. meet the net zero carbon goal by 2050. To achieve this goal, tens of millions of metric tons of clean, reliable, and affordable hydrogen will be needed annually1. In 2021, the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot was launched, and its goal is to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen to $1 per $1 kilogram in 1 decade (1 1 1) 2. One very promising pathway for large-scale hydrogen production is water splitting. Water splitting technologies range from commercial technologies such as electrolyzers to approaches that are at a much earlier stage of development, such as photoelectrochemical (PEC) and thermochemical (TCH) processes. All these water splitting pathways offer diverse benefits in energy storage, grid services, and cross-sector emissions reductions while taking advantage of the diverse domestic resources. However, critical materials-, component- and system-level challenges must be addressed to improve efficiency and durability and reduce cost. To address these barriers and move these promising and high impact technologies forward, the HydroGEN Advanced Water Splitting Materials (AWSM) and the H2 from the Next-generation of Electrolyzers of Water (H2NEW) consortia were formed and supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) EERE Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO). HydroGEN (https://www.energy.gov/eere/h2awsm/) consortium, established in 2016, is an Energy Materials Network (EMN) that aims to accelerate the materials R&D of low technology readiness level (TRL) advanced water splitting (AWS) technologies. The consortium comprises five core national laboratories and focuses on four early-stage AWS pathways: alkaline exchange membrane (AEM) electrolysis, proton conducting solid oxide electrolysis (p-SOEC), photoelectrochemical, and thermochemical water splitting. Liquid alkaline and PEM electrolyzers are already commercial and significant advancements in oxygen conducting solid oxide electrolysis cells (o-SOECs) have been realized. Yet, these systems are still too expensive and not sufficiently durable for wide-scale commercialization. To enable high-volume manufacturing of affordable, durable, efficient electrolyzers, H2NEW (https://h2new.energy.gov/), another multi-lab consortium, was established in 2020. This comprehensive, concerted effort is focused on overcoming barriers related to components and materials integration and scale-up to achieve performance, durability, with an initial focus to achieve $2/kg H2 by 2026.

AEM↗
DOE OSTI2024

RESIN: Responsible Innovation for Highly Recyclable Plastics - TASK 4: Risk Assessment Framework

This report covers the entirety of Task 4, but its main purpose is to deliver milestones ML4.4 and ML4.5, the last two SOPO milestones under Task 4. ML4.4 reports on the compatibility of polymer properties that affect both environmental performance and functional performance and the tradeoffs involved in turning these properties to the benefit of each. ML4.5 presents a complete set of information on the critical properties of benign target products, where benign products are defined as those with the shortest environmental lifetime which meet performance requirements. To support and provide context to the discussions of ML4.4 and ML4.5 and to provide a complete picture of Task 4, milestones 4.1-4.3 are briefly summarized at the beginning of the report. The discussion of ML4.4 introduces the notion of polymer persistence as a proxy for environmental risk. It then discusses the development and comparison of two machine leaning models explored for estimating polymer degradation rates, a random forest (RF) classifier and an RF regressor. Given the advantage of continuous outputs rather than simple classes, the RF regressor was incorporated in the Excel risk calculator, which to this point could implement the objectives of subtasks 4.1-4.3, estimating polymer release and redistribution. The ML4.4 discussion then addresses the effect of each of the three polymer features used by the RF regressor on polymer functional performance. These features are number molecular weight (Mn), glass transition temperature (T g ) and heat of fusion (H fus ). The discussion of ML4.5 reviews the conceptual framework of the risk model, which served as the foundation for developing the Excel risk calculator and describes the use of, and assumptions within, the calculator. Appendix A is further provided as a user’s guide for the calculator. To demonstrate how the calculator is intended to be used by developers in the design of low-risk polymers, an analysis of 27 hypothetical polymers defined by varying values for the three polymer features used by the RF regressor is presented. The range of parameter values selected produces estimates of polymer degradation rates and lifetimes that may be typical of various consumer products made from polyurethane polymers and shows how changes in polymer features affect lifetimes. The demonstration also predicts the final distribution of released polymer materials in environmental compartments as a function of consumer product mix and assumed leakage rates of end-of-life processes. Lastly, this report summarizes the achievement of Task 4 goals from original conception to final delivery and discusses how and to what degree to which each subtask goal was achieved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗