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Compound growth equation was developed in which the rate of this linear growth process is regarded as proportional to the mass already attained at any instant by an underlying Gompertz process. This compound growth model was fitted to the growth data of a variety of birds and mammals of both sexes.
We conducted a historical cohort study of mortality among 195 astronauts who were exposed to space and medical sources of radiation between 1959 and 1991. Cumulative occupational and medical radiation exposures were obtained from the astronaut radiation exposure history data base. Causes of death were obtained from obligatory death certificates and autopsy reports that were on file in the medical records. A total of 18 deaths occurred during the 32-year follow-up period for which the all-cause standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was 142 (95 percent confidence interval 84 225). There was one cancer death in the buccal cavity and pharynegeal ICD-9 rubric whose occurrence was significantly beyond expectation. Mortality for coronary disease was 59 percent lower than expected (2 deaths; SMR = 41; 95 percent confidence limit 5 147). The crude death rate for 10 occupationally related accidents was 400 deaths per 100,000 person-years, which is an order of magnitude greater than accidental death rates in mining industries. The SMR of 1027 for fatal accidents was significantly beyond expectation (14 deaths; 95 percent confidence limit 561 1723) and was similar to SMRs for accidents among aerial pesticide applications. The 10-year cumulative risk of occupational fatalities based on the exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and linear-exponential distributions was 10 percent. Mortality from motor vehicle accidents was slightly higher than expected but was not significant (1 death; SMR = 145; 95 percent confidence limit 2 808). Radiation exposures from medical procedures accounted for a majority of cumulative dose when compared with space radiation exposures. The results of the study do not confirm the impression that astronauts are at increased risk of cancer, but this does not obviate the need for further study. Overall, it was found that astronauts are at a health disadvantage as a result of catastrophic accidents.
The relative effectiveness of average-well-color-development-normalized single-point absorbance readings (AWCD) vs the kinetic parameters mu(m), lambda, A, and integral (AREA) of the modified Gompertz equation fit to the color development curve resulting from reduction of a redox sensitive dye from microbial respiration of 95 separate sole carbon sources in microplate wells was compared for a dilution series of rhizosphere samples from hydroponically grown wheat and potato ranging in inoculum densities of 1 x 10(4)-4 x 10(6) cells ml-1. Patterns generated with each parameter were analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminant function analysis (DFA) to test relative resolving power. Samples of equivalent cell density (undiluted samples) were correctly classified by rhizosphere type for all parameters based on DFA analysis of the first five PC scores. Analysis of undiluted and 1:4 diluted samples resulted in misclassification of at least two of the wheat samples for all parameters except the AWCD normalized (0.50 abs. units) data, and analysis of undiluted, 1:4, and 1:16 diluted samples resulted in misclassification for all parameter types. Ordination of samples along the first principal component (PC) was correlated to inoculum density in analyses performed on all of the kinetic parameters, but no such influence was seen for AWCD-derived results. The carbon sources responsible for classification differed among the variable types with the exception of AREA and A, which were strongly correlated. These results indicate that the use of kinetic parameters for pattern analysis in CLPP may provide some additional information, but only if the influence of inoculum density is carefully considered. c2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
The behavior of a physiological system which, after displacement, returns by homeostatic mechanisms to its original condition can be described by a simple differential equation in which the "recovery time" is a parameter. Two such systems, which influence one another, can be linked mathematically by the use of "coupling" or "feedback" coefficients. These concepts are the basis for many mathematical models of physiological behavior, and we describe the general nature of such models. Next, we introduce the concept of a "fatal limit" for the displacement of a physiological system, and show how measures of such limits can be included in mathematical models. We show how the numerical values of such limits depend on the values of other system parameters, i.e., recovery times and coupling coefficients, and suggest ways of measuring all these parameters experimentally, for example by monitoring changes induced by X-irradiation. Next, we discuss age-related changes in these parameters, and show how the parameters of mortality statistics, such as the famous Gompertz parameters, can be derived from experimentally measurable changes. Concepts of onset-of-aging, critical or fatal limits, equilibrium value (homeostasis), recovery times and coupling constants are involved. Illustrations are given using published data from mouse and rat populations. We believe that this method of deriving survival patterns from model that is experimentally testable is unique.
Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to represent and efficiently compute with multi-variate probability distributions in a wide range of disciplines. One of the main approaches to perform computation in BNs is clique tree clustering and propagation. In this approach, BN computation consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. There is a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time, and BN computation time in more general, depends on variations in BN size and structure. On the one hand, complexity results tell us that many interesting BN queries are NP-hard or worse to answer, and it is not hard to find application BNs where the clique tree approach in practice cannot be used. On the other hand, it is well-known that tree-structured BNs can be used to answer probabilistic queries in polynomial time. In this article, we develop an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN's non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, or (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Our approach is based on combining analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, we consequently have two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, we systematically increase the degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, and find that root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves. It is believed that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering, provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms, and presents an aid for analytical trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves.
One of the main approaches to performing computation in Bayesian networks (BNs) is clique tree clustering and propagation. The clique tree approach consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network, and while it was introduced in the 1980s, there is still a lack of understanding of how clique tree computation time depends on variations in BN size and structure. In this article, we improve this understanding by developing an approach to characterizing clique tree growth as a function of parameters that can be computed in polynomial time from BNs, specifically: (i) the ratio of the number of a BN s non-root nodes to the number of root nodes, and (ii) the expected number of moral edges in their moral graphs. Analytically, we partition the set of cliques in a clique tree into different sets, and introduce a growth curve for the total size of each set. For the special case of bipartite BNs, there are two sets and two growth curves, a mixed clique growth curve and a root clique growth curve. In experiments, where random bipartite BNs generated using the BPART algorithm are studied, we systematically increase the out-degree of the root nodes in bipartite Bayesian networks, by increasing the number of leaf nodes. Surprisingly, root clique growth is well-approximated by Gompertz growth curves, an S-shaped family of curves that has previously been used to describe growth processes in biology, medicine, and neuroscience. We believe that this research improves the understanding of the scaling behavior of clique tree clustering for a certain class of Bayesian networks; presents an aid for trade-off studies of clique tree clustering using growth curves; and ultimately provides a foundation for benchmarking and developing improved BN inference and machine learning algorithms.
The goal of the BioSentinel small satellite payload is to measure the effect of deep space radiation on the growth and metabolic activity of yeast cells. Raw test data is generated by fluidics cards containing yeast cells rehydrated at different periods, with metabolic activity measured by the reduction of alamarBlue. Each card well has a sensor array that measures the amount of red, green, and infrared light transmitted through the yeast culture. This illumination data is then converted to absorbance values, which are further converted into concentrations. The ultimate objective is to convert these concentrations into biologically-relevant metrics that can be compared against one another to determine changes due to differential radiation exposure. Beginning with IR absorbance data (corresponding to cell density) from ground studies, three parameters from a sigmoidal growth curve were extracted and analyzed: 𝜆 (lag phase), 𝜇 (max growth rate), and A (max cell growth). The data was fit to the Gompertz model of microbial growth using non-linear regression (Minitab), as the fit error was reduced compared to the simpler logistic growth curve. Graphs showed that the data contained a discrepancy (drift) in the lag phase that is attributable to a slow, constant loss of moisture. Correcting this discrepancy by fitting the first 25 hours of the data to a power function and subtracting these values from the absorbance readings obtained a better statistical fit to the growth curve in the lag phase. A power fit was selected over a linear fit because it reflected the effects of constant volume loss. This correction to the BioSentinel data analysis pipeline will enable quantitative statistical analysis of the effect of different levels of deep space radiation on yeast cells. Future work includes automation of drift correction and curve modeling to extract these parameters directly from data.
Abstract Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are luminous bursts of soft X-rays from the nuclei of galaxies, repeating on timescales of hours to weeks 1–5 . The mechanism behind these rare systems is uncertain, but most theories involve accretion disks around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) undergoing instabilities 6–8 or interacting with a stellar object in a close orbit 9–11 . It has been suggested that this disk could be created when the SMBH disrupts a passing star 8,11 , implying that many QPEs should be preceded by observable tidal disruption events (TDEs). Two known QPE sources show long-term decays in quiescent luminosity consistent with TDEs 4,12 and two observed TDEs have exhibited X-ray flares consistent with individual eruptions 13,14 . TDEs and QPEs also occur preferentially in similar galaxies 15 . However, no confirmed repeating QPEs have been associated with a spectroscopically confirmed TDE or an optical TDE observed at peak brightness. Here we report the detection of nine X-ray QPEs with a mean recurrence time of approximately 48 h from AT2019qiz, a nearby and extensively studied optically selected TDE 16 . We detect and model the X-ray, ultraviolet (UV) and optical emission from the accretion disk and show that an orbiting body colliding with this disk provides a plausible explanation for the QPEs.
Numerical weather forecasting models and statistical methods have found wide use to help power companies estimate renewable output, but better methods are needed, particularly for extended forecasts. Machine learning approaches have been used here as well, but so far a major limitation is the ability to also predict the corresponding uncertainty in a forecast. Here we show that both can be done and demonstrate this using a long-term-short memory neural network where the difference between predicted and ground truth data are used to train a model for the corresponding forecast uncertainties.
Fast X-ray transients are a rare and poorly understood population of events. Previously difficult to detect in real time, the launch of the Einstein Probe with its Wide-field X-ray Telescope has led to a rapid expansionof the sample and allowed the exploration of these transients across the electromagnetic spectrum. EP250108a is a recently detected example linked to an optical counterpart, SN 2025kg, or “the kangaroo.” Together with a companion Letter we present our observing campaign and analysis of this event. In this letter, we focus on the early evolution of the optical counterpart over the first 6 days, including our measurement of the redshift of z = 0.17641. We compare to other supernovae and fast transients showing similar features, finding significant similarities with SN 2006aj and SN 2020bvc, and show that the source is well modelled by a rapidly expanding cooling blackbody. We show the observed X-ray and radio properties are consistent with a collapsar-powered jet that is low energy (≲10 51 erg) and/or fails to break out of the dense material surrounding it. While we examine the possibility that the optical emission emerges from the shock produced as the supernova ejecta expand into a dense shell of circumstellar material, due to our X-ray and radio inferences, we favour a model where it arises from a shocked cocoon resulting from a trapped jet. This makes SN 2025 one of the few examples of this currently observationally rare event.
With a small sample of fast X-ray transients (FXTs) with multiwavelength counterparts discovered to date, their progenitors and connections to γ-ray bursts (GRBs) and supernovae (SNe) remain ambiguous. Here, we present photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2025kg, the SN counterpart to the FXT EP 250108a. At z = 0.17641, this is the closest known SN discovered following an Einstein Probe (EP) FXT. We show that SN 2025kg’s optical spectra reveal the hallmark features of a broad-lined Type Ic SN. Its light-curve evolution and expansion velocities are comparable to those of GRB-SNe, including SN 1998bw, and two past FXT-SNe. We present JWST/NIRSpec spectroscopy taken around SN 2025kg’s maximum light, and find weak absorption due to He I 1.0830 μm and 2.0581 μm and a broad, unidentified emission feature at ∼4–4.5 μm. Further, we observe broadened Hα in optical data at 42.5 days that is not detected at other epochs, indicating interaction with H-rich material. From its light curve, we derive a 56 Ni mass of 0.2–0.6 M ⊙ . Together with our companion Letter, our broadband data are consistent with a trapped or low-energy (≲10 51 erg) jet-driven explosion from a collapsar with a zero-age main-sequence mass of 15–30 M ⊙ . Finally, we show that the sample of EP FXT-SNe supports past estimates that low-luminosity jets seen through FXTs are more common than successful (GRB) jets, and that similar FXT-like signatures are likely present in at least a few percent of the brightest Type Ic-BL SNe.
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We present post-jet-break Hubble Space Telescope, Very Large Array, and Chandra observations of the afterglow of the long γ-ray bursts GRB 160625B (between 69 and 209 days) and GRB 160509A (between 35 and 80 days). We calculate the post-jet-break decline rates of the light curves and find the afterglow of GRB 160625B is inconsistent with a simple t−3/4 steepening over the break, expected from the geometric effect of the jet edge entering our line of sight. However, the favored optical post-break decline (fv alpha t-1.96+-0.07) is also inconsistent with the fν alpha t−p decline (where p ≈ 2.3 from the pre-break light curve), which is expected from exponential lateral expansion of the jet; perhaps suggesting lateral expansion that only affects a fraction of the jet. The post break decline of GRB 160509A is consistent with both the t−3/4 steepening and with fν alpha t−p. We also use BOXFIT to fit afterglow models to both light curves and find both to be energetically consistent with a millisecond magnetar central engine, but the magnetar parameters need to be extreme (i.e., E ~ 3 × 1052 erg). Finally, the late-time radio light curves of both afterglows are not reproduced well by BOXFIT and are inconsistent with predictions from the standard jet model; instead, both are well represented by a single power-law decline (roughly fν alpha t−1) with no breaks. This requires a highly chromatic jet break (tj, radio > 10 x tj, optical) and possibly a two-component jet for both bursts.
The number of long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) known to have occurred in the distant Universe (z>5) is small (∼15); however, these events provide a powerful way of probing star formation at the onset of galaxy evolution. In this paper, we present the case for GRB100205A being a largely overlooked high-redshift event. While initially noted as a high-z candidate, this event and its host galaxy have not been explored in detail. By combining optical and near-infrared Gemini afterglow imaging (at t < 1.3 d since burst) with deep late-time limits on host emission from the Hubble Space Telescope, we show that the most likely scenario is that GRB100205A arose in the range 4 < z<8. GRB100205A is an example of a burst whose afterglow, even at ∼1 h post burst, could only be identified by 8-m class IR observations, and suggests that such observations of all optically dark bursts may be necessary to significantly enhance the number of high-redshift GRBs known.
A small fraction of candidate tidal disruption events (TDEs) show evidence of powerful relativistic jets, which are particularly pronounced at radio wavelengths, and likely contribute non-thermal emission at a wide range of wavelengths. A non-thermal emission component can be diagnosed using linear polarimetry, even when the total received light is dominated by emission from an accretion disc or disc outflow. In this paper, we present Very Large Telescope (VLT) measurements of the linear polarization of the optical light of jetted TDE Swift J2058+0516. This is the second jetted TDE studied in this manner, after Swift J1644+57. We find evidence of non-zero optical linear polarization, PV ∼ 8 per cent, a level very similar to the near-infrared polarimetry of Swift J1644+57. These detections provide an independent test of the emission mechanisms of the multiwavelength emission of jetted TDEs.
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