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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Quasi-periodic X-ray eruptions years after a nearby tidal disruption event

Abstract Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are luminous bursts of soft X-rays from the nuclei of galaxies, repeating on timescales of hours to weeks 1–5 . The mechanism behind these rare systems is uncertain, but most theories involve accretion disks around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) undergoing instabilities 6–8 or interacting with a stellar object in a close orbit 9–11 . It has been suggested that this disk could be created when the SMBH disrupts a passing star 8,11 , implying that many QPEs should be preceded by observable tidal disruption events (TDEs). Two known QPE sources show long-term decays in quiescent luminosity consistent with TDEs 4,12 and two observed TDEs have exhibited X-ray flares consistent with individual eruptions 13,14 . TDEs and QPEs also occur preferentially in similar galaxies 15 . However, no confirmed repeating QPEs have been associated with a spectroscopically confirmed TDE or an optical TDE observed at peak brightness. Here we report the detection of nine X-ray QPEs with a mean recurrence time of approximately 48 h from AT2019qiz, a nearby and extensively studied optically selected TDE 16 . We detect and model the X-ray, ultraviolet (UV) and optical emission from the accretion disk and show that an orbiting body colliding with this disk provides a plausible explanation for the QPEs.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Prediction Error for Time-dependent Solar Radiation Modeling

Numerical weather forecasting models and statistical methods have found wide use to help power companies estimate renewable output, but better methods are needed, particularly for extended forecasts. Machine learning approaches have been used here as well, but so far a major limitation is the ability to also predict the corresponding uncertainty in a forecast. Here we show that both can be done and demonstrate this using a long-term-short memory neural network where the difference between predicted and ground truth data are used to train a model for the corresponding forecast uncertainties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Kangaroo’s First Hop: The Early Fast Cooling Phase of EP250108a/SN 2025kg

Fast X-ray transients are a rare and poorly understood population of events. Previously difficult to detect in real time, the launch of the Einstein Probe with its Wide-field X-ray Telescope has led to a rapid expansionof the sample and allowed the exploration of these transients across the electromagnetic spectrum. EP250108a is a recently detected example linked to an optical counterpart, SN 2025kg, or “the kangaroo.” Together with a companion Letter we present our observing campaign and analysis of this event. In this letter, we focus on the early evolution of the optical counterpart over the first 6 days, including our measurement of the redshift of z = 0.17641. We compare to other supernovae and fast transients showing similar features, finding significant similarities with SN 2006aj and SN 2020bvc, and show that the source is well modelled by a rapidly expanding cooling blackbody. We show the observed X-ray and radio properties are consistent with a collapsar-powered jet that is low energy (≲10 51 erg) and/or fails to break out of the dense material surrounding it. While we examine the possibility that the optical emission emerges from the shock produced as the supernova ejecta expand into a dense shell of circumstellar material, due to our X-ray and radio inferences, we favour a model where it arises from a shocked cocoon resulting from a trapped jet. This makes SN 2025 one of the few examples of this currently observationally rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

EP 250108a/SN 2025kg: Observations of the Most Nearby Broad-line Type Ic Supernova Following an Einstein Probe Fast X-Ray Transient

With a small sample of fast X-ray transients (FXTs) with multiwavelength counterparts discovered to date, their progenitors and connections to γ-ray bursts (GRBs) and supernovae (SNe) remain ambiguous. Here, we present photometric and spectroscopic observations of SN 2025kg, the SN counterpart to the FXT EP 250108a. At z = 0.17641, this is the closest known SN discovered following an Einstein Probe (EP) FXT. We show that SN 2025kg’s optical spectra reveal the hallmark features of a broad-lined Type Ic SN. Its light-curve evolution and expansion velocities are comparable to those of GRB-SNe, including SN 1998bw, and two past FXT-SNe. We present JWST/NIRSpec spectroscopy taken around SN 2025kg’s maximum light, and find weak absorption due to He I 1.0830 μm and 2.0581 μm and a broad, unidentified emission feature at ∼4–4.5 μm. Further, we observe broadened Hα in optical data at 42.5 days that is not detected at other epochs, indicating interaction with H-rich material. From its light curve, we derive a 56 Ni mass of 0.2–0.6 M ⊙ . Together with our companion Letter, our broadband data are consistent with a trapped or low-energy (≲10 51 erg) jet-driven explosion from a collapsar with a zero-age main-sequence mass of 15–30 M ⊙ . Finally, we show that the sample of EP FXT-SNe supports past estimates that low-luminosity jets seen through FXTs are more common than successful (GRB) jets, and that similar FXT-like signatures are likely present in at least a few percent of the brightest Type Ic-BL SNe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗