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This presentation briefs the UAM Framework and Barriers, UAM Grand Challenge, the UAM Maturity Levels (UMLs) in relation to the Grand Challenge, and showed the NASA Initial Grand Challenge (IGC) OV-1.
NASA Grand Challenge Update for VFS [Urban Air Mobility]
Mars Sample Return is our Grand Challenge for the coming decade. TPS (Thermal Protection System) nominal performance is not the key challenge. The main difficulty for designers is the need to verify unprecedented reliability for the entry system: current guidelines for prevention of backward contamination require that the probability of spores larger than 1 micron diameter escaping into the Earth environment be lower than 1 million for the entire system, and the allocation to TPS would be more stringent than that. For reference, the reliability allocation for Orion TPS is closer to 11000, and the demonstrated reliability for previous human Earth return systems was closer to 1100. Improving reliability by more than 3 orders of magnitude is a grand challenge indeed. The TPS community must embrace the possibility of new architectures that are focused on reliability above thermal performance and mass efficiency. MSR (Mars Sample Return) EEV (Earth Entry Vehicle) will be hit with MMOD (Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris) prior to reentry. A chute-less aero-shell design which allows for self-righting shape was baselined in prior MSR studies, with the assumption that a passive system will maximize EEV robustness. Hence the aero-shell along with the TPS has to take ground impact and not break apart. System verification will require testing to establish ablative performance and thermal failure but also testing of damage from MMOD, and structural performance at ground impact. Mission requirements will demand analysis, testing and verification that are focused on establishing reliability of the design. In this proposed talk, we will focus on the grand challenge of MSR EEV TPS and the need for innovative approaches to address challenges in modeling, testing, manufacturing and verification.
"Are we alone" is a question whose ambition can only be met with a NASA-led global collaboration. In this white paper, we describe how this makes "The Search for Life Beyond Earth" a new Grand Challenge for NASA. As described in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and the White House National Economic Council, Grand Challenges are "ambitious but achievable goals that harness science, technology, and innovation to solve important national or global problems and that have the potential to capture the public's imagination." NASA had identified an "Asteroid Grand Challenge" centered on the Asteroid Retrieval Mission, which was closed out in June, 2017. Here, we explain how NASA's next Grand Challenge could be focused on "The Search for Life Beyond Earth," with a flagship-scale mission in Astrophysics as its centerpiece.
The presentation will provide an overview of the Grand Challenge and the its associated build up. It is a high level overview of the objectives, timelines and scenarios.
Flight qualification of space vehicles is markedly different from those typically employed for aircraft. The concept of an extensive flight test campaign for a space vehicle does not exist, and vehicle designers must look to alternative techniques for demonstrating robust and reliable performance of their vehicles prior to operational flight. A space vehicle may undergo only a handful of flight tests in its development cycle, with each flight representing a drastically different flight phase or flight configuration. For instance, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle and Orion spacecraft will only see a total of four flight demonstrations before flying a crew on its first operational mission, and each flight demonstrates a unique vehicle configuration and/or set of flight conditions. The SLS will be flown only one time before it becomes operational (Artemis 1). The Orion spacecraft Crew Module (CM) will have been tested twice, once on a Delta IV launch vehicle (Exploration Flight Test 1) and once as a fully integrated system with the SLS launch vehicle (Artemis 1). The Orion Launch abort system will have been tested twice, once in a pad abort scenario (Pad Abort 1) and once in an inflight abort scenario (Ascent Abort 2) on a modified Peacekeeper booster. Both of these latter tests involve only a boiler plate CM, not a functional Orion spacecraft. Thus, unlike aircraft, there is very little opportunity for engineers to assess and evaluate their preflight predictions. Instead, space vehicle designers rely on Monte Carlo flight simulations with detailed dispersions of predicted nominal flight behavior to determine how robust their design is to errors and uncertainties in the flight conditions their vehicle may encounter. These Monte Carlo analyses entail thousands of trajectory simulations to demonstrate that the vehicle can meet design requirements at a specified level of reliability. From an aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics perspective, these trajectory simulations are fueled by an extensive aerodynamic database that covers the complete range of expected flight conditions, vehicle configurations, and flight attitudes expected in a given mission. Today, these databases amount to a table of engineering parameters that can be quickly interrogated by the trajectory simulator. The aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic databases are assembled via a series of ground tests, empirical and analytical analysis, physics-based computational analysis, applicable past flight performance data, and in some cases, engineering judgment. These databases generally take years to assemble for a new space vehicle system and in the case of SLS/Orion, over a decade of test and analysis have been expended to develop the extensive databases required to cover the myriad of configurations and potential flight conditions required for the system. Recently, it has been proposed that Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and computing capability may be reaching a point where it is foreseeable that CFD could be integrated directly into the production trajectory simulation tools used to design NASA’s space vehicles. To demonstrate this, NASA has embarked on two demonstrations of this type of capability, one where six degree of freedom flight trajectory simulation equations are embedded in an existing CFD solver and another where a production CFD solver is loosely coupled with a production trajectory simulation tool. These efforts represent an initial demonstration of a future approach to flight trajectory simulation, but they are a far cry from the capability required to perform a full-up CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation. Therefore, this represents a viable grand challenge for computational methods addressing space vehicle design and development. The final paper/presentation will discuss the many hurdles, beyond simply raw computational power, to realizing this grand challenge and how they map directly to the CFD Vision 2030 ojectives. Among these are the wide range of flight conditions, including accelerating/decelerating flight, encountered by a space vehicle during launch and/or entry. The vehicle can also encounter numerous configuration changes, some of which can be quite drastic, during the course of its flight, so robust, automated geometry modeling, grid generation, and adaptation will play a huge role in reaching this goal. Multiply this by 1000’s of trajectory simulations occurring simultaneously in a given Monte Carlo analysis, and the problem readily scales to absorb virtually any size of supercomputer envisioned today. The concept of CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation poses a formidable challenge for emerging and future computing systems, and it has the potential to shave years off the development cycle for aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance predictions as compared to today’s space vehicle design approach.
2014 NASA published the outcome of the 2030 CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) Vision study: “CFD Vision 2030: A path to Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences” . The study provided a comprehensive review of the state of the art of CFD in 2014 for aerospace applications including, but not limited to, numerical algorithms, physics models, MDAO (Multidisciplinary Design Analysis and Optimization) and HPC (High Performance Computing) hardware. The study also proposed four conceptual ideas of Grand Challenge problems that would build on and benefit from advances outlined in the roadmap. The proposed challenges were meant to foster more detailed descriptions of grand challenge problems for specific disciplines. One of the proposed challenges was in the gas turbine propulsion area, focusing on transient full engine simulations. The current paper addresses detailed technical aspects of that challenge, and proposes a plan to approach it in a gradual manner, which includes high fidelity modeling of components, component coupling, and targeted experimental campaigns relying on common research models.
Within today's much ballyhooed supercomputing environment, with its CFLOPS of CPU power, and Gigabit networks, there exists a major roadblock to computing success; that of Mass Storage. The solution to this mass storage problem is considered to be one of the 'Grand Challenges' facing the computer industry today, as well as long into the future. It has become obvious to us, as well as many others in the industry, that there is no clear single solution in sight. The Systems Integrator today is faced with a myriad of quandaries in approaching this challenge. He must first be innovative in approach, second choose hardware solutions that are volumetric efficient; high in signal bandwidth; available from multiple sources; competitively priced, and have forward growth extendibility. In addition he must also comply with a variety of mandated, and often conflicting software standards (GOSIP, POSIX, IEEE, MSRM 4.0, and others), and finally he must deliver a systems solution with the 'most bang for the buck' in terms of cost vs. performance factors. These quandaries challenge the Systems Integrator to 'push the envelope' in terms of his or her ingenuity and innovation on an almost daily basis. This dynamic is explored further, and an attempt to acquaint the audience with rational approaches to this 'Grand Challenge' is made.
The grand challenges are the following: to develop more innovation in approach; to expand the I/O barrier; to achieve increased volumetric efficiency and incremental cost improvements; to reinforce the 'weakest link' software; to implement improved architectures; and to minimize the impact of self-destructing technologies. Mass storage is defined as any type of storage system exceeding 100 GBytes in total size, under the control of a centralized file management scheme. The topics covered are presented in viewgraph form.
This is a general update on the Grand Challenge to the general public on the path forward.
A year ago, I gave a talk in anticipation of a Mars Sample Return effort at the 9th Ablation Workshop. Since then a lot has happened. "April of this year, after a year of study phase, NASA and ESA (European Space Agency) signed a Statement of Intent (SOI) to jointly develop a Mars Sample Return plan to be submitted to their respective authorities by the end of 2019. This signing is historic, as it signals the desire, the readiness, and the willingness to work together to execute this inspiring mission, we all have the opportunity to tackle this grand challenge. We have the scientific and engineering maturity to identify the critical technologies ready to be applied, and with discipline this campaign can be executed affordably," Jim Watzin, Mars Program Executive, NASA. NASA Centers with JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) leading the charge is in the midst of a pre-formulation phase for executing a Mars Sample Return before the end of next decade. The proposed talk builds on the previous year talk. In light of the agreement between NASA and ESA, NASA has assumed the responsibilities for developing the earth entry vehicle (EEV) that will fly along with a European Spacecraft and return with the sample from Mars. EEV will be deployed for entry into earth. The EEV design, development, testing and certification have to result in a highly reliable sample return system. The entire architecture has to be demonstrated to meet the planetary protection requirement. NASA is considering two distinctly different earth entry vehicle architectures and with each choice, many different ablative TPS (Thermal Protective Shield) candidates. As a result of the NASA-ESA ongoing studies, some of the key entry conditions and design requirements are better understood today and more are being scoped out. The heat-shield ablative TPS choice need to be done with a good understanding as it plays a very significant role in determining the robustness of the EEV. Knowledge about how materials and system perform, and how the features could become flaws and how flaws lead to failure, etc. need to be clearly understood and the knowledge then need to be used to down select the TPS. This proposed talk will provide greater insight into the progress being made and the challenges that need to be tackled.
Space vehicle design and certification differs widely from aircraft design relying more on probabilistic approaches than deterministic. Monte Carlo simulation plays an important role in the probabilistic design of space vehicles to ensure robust and reliable operation. Today, Monte Carlo flight simulation requires 1000’s of trajectory simulations that use databases to provide aerosciences models. These databases can be extremely expensive and time consuming to develop. Replacing these databases with unsteady computational fluid dynamics directly in the simulation loop has potential to significantly reduce the time required to analyze space vehicle concepts, improve simulation accuracy, and reduce the cost of space vehicle development. The CFD Vision 2030 Study outlined gaps and roadblocks to meeting the vision described in the study. The geometric, physical, and computational challenges associated with CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo simulation for space vehicle design are substantial and serve as an excellent grand challenge to advance the CFD 2030 vision.
This final technical report describes the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable solution to the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The technical materials contained in this final report are based on numerous technical papers, which have been previously published by the project team of the NIAC Phase 1 and 2 studies during the past three years. Those technical papers as well as a NIAC Phase 2 Executive Summary report can be downloaded from the ADRC website (www.adrc.iastate.edu).
This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (< 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results. Detailed technical descriptions of the study results are provided in a separate final technical report, which can be downloaded from the ADRC website (www.adrc.iastate.edu).
In 2014 NASA published the outcome of the 2030 CFD Vision study: “CFD Vision 2030: A path to Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences” (Slotnick et al., 2014). The study provided a comprehensive review of the state of the art of CFD in 2014 for aerospace applications including, but not limited to, numerical algorithms, physics models, MDAO and HPC hardware. The study also proposed four conceptual ideas of Grand Challenge problems that would benefit from advances outlined in the roadmap including “off-design turbofan engine transient simulation”. The proposed challenges served as a starting point for more detailed problem descriptions that would benefit from advances in simulation. The objective of this paper is to build upon the NASA 2030 CFD Vision study and provide a detailed overview of what needs to take place to enable accurate and efficient simulation of flow through an aircraft engine at off-design condition for transient operation . Execution of the proposed roadmap would significantly advance aircraft engine development by reducing program cost, reducing program development timelines and enabling design objectives associated with Specific Fuel Consumption (SFC), noise, weight and durability.
Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (approx.10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 10(exp 9) unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a grand challenge to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.
Most convective field experiments in the past (e.g., SESAME, CCOPE, CINDE) have attempted to resolve only the immediate scales of moist convection using network arrays that spanned two or three atmospheric scales at most. Furthermore, these scales have been defined more on practical considerations (cost, manpower, etc.) than on a clear understanding of their theoretical significance. Unfortunately, this has precluded a description of the entire life cycle of MCS's and their interaction with larger scale systems, the land surface, and trace species. Fortunately, the following factors now make it possible to attempt to simulate scale contraction processes from the synoptic scale down to the cloud scale, as well as interactions between complex meteorological, land surface, precipitation, chemical, and hydrologic processes with coupled, multiscale models: the availability of new technology to sample meteorological fields at high temporal and spatial resolution over a broad region made possible by the weather observing modernization program; increased computer power and improved numerical approaches to run limited area models with nonhydrostatic precipitation physics so as to explicitly resolve MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) processes; and four dimensional assimilation of non-conventional data to provide dynamically consistent datasets for diagnostic analysis of nonlinear scale-interactive dynamics. Several examples of scale-interactive processes which present grand challenges for coupled, multiscale modeling were presented.
No abstract available