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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Cold Season Performance of the NU-WRF Regional Climate Model in the Great Lakes Region

As Earth’s largest collection of freshwater, the Laurentian Great Lakes have enormous ecological and socio-economic value. Their basin has become a regional hotspot of climatic and limnological change, potentially threatening its vital natural resources. Consequentially, there is a need to assess the current state of climate models regarding their performance across the Great Lakes region and develop the next generation of high-resolution regional climate models to address complex limnological processes and lake-atmosphere interactions. In response to this need, the current paper focuses on the generation and analysis of a 20-member ensemble of 3-km National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) simulations for the 2014-2015 cold season. The study aims to identify the model’s strengths and weaknesses; optimal configuration for the region; and the impacts of different physics parameterizations, coupling to a 1D lake model, time-variant lake-surface temperatures, and spectral nudging. Several key biases are identified in the cold-season simulations for the Great Lakes region, including an atmospheric cold bias that is amplified by coupling to a 1D lake model but diminished by applying the Community Atmosphere Model radiation scheme and Morrison microphysics scheme; an excess precipitation bias; anomalously early initiation of fall lake turnover and subsequent cold lake bias; excessive and overly persistent lake ice cover; and insufficient evaporation over Lakes Superior and Huron. The research team is currently addressing these key limitations by coupling NU-WRF to a 3D lake model in support of the next generation of regional climate models for the critical Great Lakes Basin.

Michael Notaro↗
NASA NTRS2011

Forecasting Lake-Effect Precipitation in the Great Lakes Region Using NASA Enhanced-Satellite Data

Lake-effect precipitation is common in the Great Lakes region, particularly during the late fall and winter. The synoptic processes of lake-effect precipitation are well understood by operational forecasters, but individual forecast events still present a challenge. Locally run, high resolution models can assist the forecaster in identifying the onset and duration of precipitation, but model results are sensitive to initial conditions, particularly the assumed surface temperature of the Great Lakes. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has created a Great Lakes Surface Temperature (GLST) composite, which uses infrared estimates of water temperatures obtained from the MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites, other coarser resolution infrared data when MODIS is not available, and ice cover maps produced by the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab (GLERL). This product has been implemented into the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS), used within forecast offices to run local, high resolution forecasts. The sensitivity of the model forecast to the GLST product was analyzed with a case study of the Lake Effect Storm Echinacea, which produced 10 to 12 inches of snowfall downwind of Lake Erie, and 8 to 18 inches downwind of Lake Ontario from 27-29 January 2010. This research compares a forecast using the default Great Lakes surface temperatures from the Real Time Global sea surface temperature (RTG SST), in the WRF-EMS model to the enhanced NASA SPoRT GLST product to study forecast impacts. Results from this case study show that the SPoRT GLST contained less ice cover over Lake Erie and generally cooler water temperatures over Lakes Erie and Ontario. Latent and sensible heat fluxes over Lake Ontario were decreased in the GLST product. The GLST product decreased the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), which can be correlated to the decrease in temperatures and heat fluxes. A slight increase in precipitation coverage was noted over Lake Erie due to a decrease in ice cover. Both the RTG SST and the GLST products predicted the precipitation south of the actual location of precipitation. This single case study is the first part of an examination to determine how MODIS data can be applied to improve model forecasts in the Great Lakes region.

Cipullo, Michelle↗
NASA NTRS2007

Preliminary Validation of the AFWA-NASA Blended Snowcover Product Over the Lower Great Lakes region

A new snow product created using the standard Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) snow cover and snow-water equivalent products has been evaluated for the Lower Great Lakes region during the winter of 2002- 03. National Weather Service Co-Operative Observing Network stations and student-acquired snow data were used as ground truth. An interpolation scheme was used to map snow cover on the ground from the station measurements for each day of the study period. It is concluded that this technique does not represent the actual ground conditions adequately to permit evaluation of the new snow product in an absolute sense. However, use of the new product was found to improve the mapping of snow cover as compared to using either the MODIS or AMSR-E product, alone. Plans for further analysis are discussed.

Hall, D. K.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Spatial Analysis of Great Lakes Regional Icing Cloud Liquid Water Content

Abstract Clustering of cloud microphysical conditions, such as liquid water content (LWC) and drop size, can affect the rate and shape of ice accretion and the airworthiness of aircraft. Clustering may also degrade the accuracy of cloud LWC measurements from radars and microwave radiometers being developed by the government for remotely mapping icing conditions ahead of aircraft in flight. This paper evaluates spatial clustering of LWC in icing clouds using measurements collected during NASA research flights in the Great Lakes region. We used graphical and analytical approaches to describe clustering. The analytical approach involves determining the average size of clusters and computing a clustering intensity parameter. We analyzed flight data composed of 1-s-frequency LWC measurements for 12 periods ranging from 17.4 minutes (73 km) to 45.3 minutes (190 km) in duration. Graphically some flight segments showed evidence of consistency with regard to clustering patterns. Cluster intensity varied from 0.06, indicating little clustering, to a high of 2.42. Cluster lengths ranged from 0.1 minutes (0.6 km) to 4.1 minutes (17.3 km). Additional analyses will allow us to determine if clustering climatologies can be developed to characterize cluster conditions by region, time period, or weather condition. Introduction

Ryerson, Charles C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Preliminary Evaluation of the AFWA-NASA (ANSA) Blended Snow-Cover Product over the Lower Great Lakes Region

The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) - NASA (ANSA) blended-snow product utilizes EOS standard snow products from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) to map daily snow cover and snow-water equivalent (SWE) globally. We have compared ANSA-derived SWE. with SWE values calculated from snow depths reported at approx.1500 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) coop stations in the Lower Great Lakes basin. Our preliminary results show that conversion of snow depth to SWE is very sensitive to the choice of snow density (we used either 0.2 or 03 as conversion factors). We found overall better agreement between the ANSA-derived SWE and the co-op station data when we use a snow density of 0.3 to convert the snow depths to SWE. In addition, we show that the ANSA underestimates SWE in densely-forested areas, using January and February 2008 ANSA and co-op data. Furthermore, apparent large SWE changes from one day to the next may be caused by thaw-re-freeze events, and do not always represent a real change in SWE. In the near future we will continue the analysis in the 2006-07 and 2007-08 snow seasons.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Improving the Accuracy of the AFWA-NASA (ANSA) Blended Snow-Cover Product over the Lower Great Lakes Region

The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) -- NASA blended snow-cover product, called ANSA, utilizes Earth Observing System standard snow products from the Moderate- Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) to map daily snow cover and snow-water equivalent (SWE) globally. We have compared ANSA-derived SWE with SWE values calculated from snow depths reported at ~1500 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) co-op stations in the Lower Great Lakes Basin. Compared to station data, the ANSA significantly underestimates SWE in densely-forested areas. We use two methods to remove some of the bias observed in forested areas to reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between the ANSA- and station-derived SWE. First, we calculated a 5- year mean ANSA-derived SWE for the winters of 2005-06 through 2009-10, and developed a five-year mean bias-corrected SWE map for each month. For most of the months studied during the five-year period, the 5-year bias correction improved the agreement between the ANSA-derived and station-derived SWE. However, anomalous months such as when there was very little snow on the ground compared to the 5-year mean, or months in which the snow was much greater than the 5-year mean, showed poorer results (as expected). We also used a 7-day running mean (7DRM) bias correction method using days just prior to the day in question to correct the ANSA data. This method was more effective in reducing the RMSE between the ANSA- and co-op-derived SWE values, and in capturing the effects of anomalous snow conditions.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Airborne Hyperspectral Sensing of Monitoring Harmful Algal Blooms in the Great Lakes Region: System Calibration and Validation

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) in Lake Erie have been prominent in recent years. The bloom in 2014 reached a severe level causing the State of Ohio to declare a state of emergency. At that time NASA Glenn Research Center was requested by stakeholders to help monitor the blooms in Lake Erie. Glenn conducted flights twice a week in August and September and assembled and distributed the HAB information to the shoreline water resource managers using its hyperspectral imaging sensor (in development since 2006), the S􀂱3 Viking aircraft, and funding resources from the NASA Headquarters Earth Science Division. Since then, the State of Ohio, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have elevated their funding and activities for observing, monitoring, and addressing the root cause of HABs. Also, the communities and stakeholders have persistently requested NASA Glenn􀂶s participation in HAB observation. Abundant field campaigns and sample analyses have been funded by Ohio and NOAA, which provided a great opportunity for NASA to advance science and airborne hyperspectral remote sensing economically. Capitalizing on this opportunity to advance the science of algal blooms and remote sensing, NASA Glenn conducted the Airborne Hyperspectral Observation of harmful algal blooms campaign in 2015 that was, in many respects, twice as large as the 2014 campaign. Focusing mostly on Lake Erie, but also including other small inland lakes and the Ohio River, the campaign was conducted in partnership with a large number of partners specializing in marine science and remote sensing. Airborne hyperspectral observation of HABs holds promise to distinguish potential HABs from nuisance blooms, determine their concentrations, and delineate their movement in an augmented spatial and temporal resolution and under clouds􀂲all of which are excellent complements to satellite observations. Working with collaborators at several Ohio and Michigan institutions as well as one in South Dakota and one in Alabama, this effort was able to provide next-day georeferenced estimates of cyanobacteria and scum concentrations. Very prompt processing and analysis of the hyperspectral imagery is necessary for the information to be acted upon. For example, a next-day report of an overflight over the Ohio River indicated that a bloom could be present as far downstream as the Cincinnati intake, but the Ohio EPA had not received visual reports of a bloom that far downstream. Water samples were obtained at the Cincinnati water intake, based on the flight data, and detected microcystins in the source water. The flight data helped State and municipal authorities realize the potential extent of that bloom, and triggered response sampling, before the visual river-wide scums started forming. The present document describes the process that was utilized to take raw remote sensing data and create information products; this includes system calibration and validation, efforts to correct atmospheric effects, and algorithms that produce the data products. Furthermore, successful research into improved algorithms for expanding the capability to delineate in water constituents is included. Finally, comparisons that show expected relationships between ground-based measurements and hyperspectral imager version 2 (HSI2) data results are presented, giving confidence in the remote sensing products.

Hyperspectral Imaging↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate drives modeled forest carbon cycling resistance and resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography-2.2 (ED-2.2)model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real-world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED-2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900(approximating the clear-cut conditions at the time),and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP),and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two-fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade-off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and its highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Kalyn Dorheim↗
NASA NTRS2011

Forecasting Lake-Effect Snow in the Great Lakes Using NASA Satllite Data

This slide presentation reviews the forecast of the lake effect snow in the Great Lakes region using models and infrared estimates of Great Lake Surface Temperatures (GLSTs) from the MModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on Terra and Aqua satellites, and other satellite data. This study analyzes Lake Erie and Lake Ontario which produce storm total snowfall ranged from 8-18 inches off of Lake Ontario and 10-12 inches off of Lake Erie for the areas downwind.

Cipullo, Michelle↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evaluation of NCAR Icing/SLD Forecasts, Tools and Techniques Used During The 1998 NASA SLD Flight Season

Supercooled Large Droplet (SLD) icing conditions were implicated in at least one recent aircraft crash, and have been associated with other aircraft incidents. Inflight encounters with SLD can result in ice accreting on unprotected areas of the wing where it can not be removed. Because this ice can adversely affect flight characteristics of some aircraft, there has been concern about flight safety in these conditions. The FAA held a conference on in-flight icing in 1996 where the state of knowledge concerning SLD was explored. One outcome of these meetings was an identified need to acquire SLD flight research data, particularly in the Great Lakes Region. The flight research data was needed by the FAA to develop a better understanding of the meteorological characteristics associated with SLD and facilitate an assessment of existing aircraft icing certification regulations with respect to SLD. In response to this need, NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) conducted a cooperative icing flight research program to acquire SLD flight research data. The NASA Glenn Research Center's Twin Otter icing research aircraft was flown throughout the Great Lakes region during the winters of 1996-97 and 1997-98 to acquire SLD icing and meteorological data. The NASA Twin Otter was instrumented to measure cloud microphysical properties (particle size, LWC (Liquid Water Content), temperature, etc.), capture images of wing and tail ice accretion, and then record the resultant effect on aircraft performance due to the ice accretion. A satellite telephone link enabled the researchers onboard the Twin Otter to communicate with NCAR meteorologists. who provided real-time guidance into SLD icing conditions. NCAR meteorologists also provided preflight SLD weather forecasts that were used to plan the research flights, and served as on-board researchers. This document contains an evaluation of the tools and techniques NCAR forecasters used to predict the location of SLD icing conditions during the winter of 1997-1998. The objectives of this report are to: (1) assess the tools used to forecast in-flight icing. (2) assess the success/failure rate of the forecasts, and (3) discuss suggested changes to forecast techniques.

Bernstein, Ben C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Late quaternary geomorphology of the Great Salt Lake region, Utah, and other hydrographically closed basins in the western United States: A summary of observations

Attributes of Quaternary lakes and lake basins which are often important in the environmental prehistory of semideserts are discussed. Basin-floor and basin-closure morphometry have set limits on paleolake sizes; lake morphometry and basin drainage patterns have influenced lacustrine processes; and water and sediment loads have influenced basin neotectonics. Information regarding inundated, runoff-producing, and extra-basin spatial domains is acquired directly from the paleolake record, including the littoral morphostratigraphic record, and indirectly by reconstruction. Increasingly detailed hypotheses regarding Lake Bonneville, the largest late Pleistocene paleolake in the Great Basin, are subjects for further testing and refinement. Oscillating transgression of Lake Bonneville began about 28,000 yr B.P.; the highest stage occurred about 15,000 yr B.P., and termination occurred abruptly about 13,000 yr B.P. A final resurgence of perennial lakes probably occurred in many subbasins of the Great Basin between 11,000 and 10,000 yr B.P., when the highest stage of Great Salt Lake (successor to Lake Bonneville) developed the Gilbert shoreline. The highest post-Gilbert stage of Great Salt Lake, which has been one of the few permanent lakes in the Great Basin during Holocene time, probably occurred between 3,000 and 2,000 yr B.P.

Currey, Donald R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Reactive nitrogen oxides and ozone above a taiga woodland

Measurements of reactive nitrogen oxides (NO(x) and NO(y)) and ozone (O3) were made in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) above a taiga woodland in northern Quebec, Canada, during June-August, 1990, as part of NASA Artic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B. Levels of nitrogen oxides and O3 were strongly modulated by the synoptic scale meteorology that brought air from various source regions to the site. Industrial pollution from the Great Lakes region of the U.S. and Canada appears to be a major source for periodic elevation of NO(x), and NO(y) and O3. We find that NO/NO2 ratios at this site at midday were approximately 50% those expected from a simple photochemical steady state between NO(x) and O3, in contrast to our earlier results from the ABLE 3A tundra site. The difference between the taiga and tundra sites is likely due to much larger emissions of biogenic hydrocarbons (particularly isoprene) from the taiga vegetation. Hydrocarbon photooxidation leads to relatively rapid production of peroxy radicals, which convert NO to NO2, at the taiga site. Ratios of NO(x) to NO(y) were typically 2-3 times higher in the PBL during ABLE 3B than during ABLE 3A. This is probably the result of high PAN levels and suppressed formation of HNO3 from NO2 due to high levels of biogenic hydrocarbons at the ABLE 3B site.

Bakwin, Peter S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Tree-Ring Chronology and Paleoclimate Record for the Younger Dryas-Early Holocene Transition from Northeastern North America

Spruce and tamarack logs dating from the Younger Dryas and Early Holocene (YDEH; approx. 12.9 - 11.3k cal a BP) were found at Bell Creek in the Lake Ontario lowlands of the Great Lakes region, North America. A 211-year tree-ring chronology dates to approx. 11 755 -11 545 cal a BP, across the YDEH transition. A 23-year period of higher year-to-year ring-width variability dates to around 11 650 cal a BP, infers strong regional climatic perturbations and may represent the end of the YD. Tamarack and spruce were dominant species throughout the YD - EH interval at the site, indicating that boreal conditions persisted into the EH, in contrast to geographical regions immediately south and east of the lowlands, but consistent with the Great Lakes interior lowlands. This infers that Bell Creek was at the eastern boundary of a boreal ecotone, perhaps a result of its lower elevation and the non-analog dynamics of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. This finding suggests that the ecotone boundary extended farther east during the YD - EH transition than previously thought.

dendroclimatology;northeastern North America;spruc↗