Using high-frequency soil oxygen sensors to predict greenhouse gas emissions from wetlands
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Ashley R. Smyth↗
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Detection of the greenhouse gas signal from space - A progress report
The spatial distribution of the expected changes in the atmospheric water vapor content and cloud cover, as predicted by the transient greenhouse gas (GHG) simulation of Hansen et al. (1988), are examined to determine whether the signals would be large enough and unique enough to be useful in a GHG detection study. The nature of the predicted GHG signal was first examined using the transient CO2 run from the GISS ocean/atmosphere general circulation model. Next, the remotely sensed irradiance characteristics data (as the measure of water vapor content) supplied by the HIRS/MSU sensors for the area of the equatorial cold tongue region (the region in which there are no measurement stations). It is shown that HIRS/MSU signals can provide data necessary for detecting GHS signals in atmospheric moisture for regions where ground observations are not possible.
Barnett, T. P.↗
The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming
The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.
Lorius, C.↗
Continuation of the NVAP Global Water Vapor Data Sets for Pathfinder Science Analysis
This annual report covers August 2000 - August 2001 under NASA contract NASW-0032, entitled "Continuation of the NVAP (NASA's Water Vapor Project) Global Water Vapor Data Sets for Pathfinder Science Analysis". NASA has created a list of Earth Science Research Questions which are outlined by Asrar, et al. Particularly relevant to NVAP are the following questions: (a) How are global precipitation, evaporation, and the cycling of water changing? (b) What trends in atmospheric constituents and solar radiation are driving global climate? (c) How well can long-term climatic trends be assessed or predicted? Water vapor is a key greenhouse gas, and an understanding of its behavior is essential in global climate studies. Therefore, NVAP plays a key role in addressing the above climate questions by creating a long-term global water vapor dataset and by updating the dataset with recent advances in satellite instrumentation. The NVAP dataset produced from 1988-1998 has found wide use in the scientific community. Studies of interannual variability are particularly important. A recent paper by Simpson, et al. that examined the NVAP dataset in detail has shown that its relative accuracy is sufficient for the variability studies that contribute toward meeting NASA's goals. In the past year, we have made steady progress towards continuing production of this high-quality dataset as well as performing our own investigations of the data. This report summarizes the past year's work on production of the NVAP dataset and presents results of analyses we have performed in the past year.
VonderHaar, Thomas H.↗
Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss
Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under ‘business as usual’ rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.
Maria F. Adame↗
Estimating Future Changes of Energy Demand for Heating and Cooling Buildings at NASA Centers GC23J-1198
With its unique and trusted earth observations, NASA is a critical source in informing decisions that will help achieve the U.S. goal of Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions by 2050. NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). As part of the development of new data products to support the energy and building heating/cooling design communities, we estimate the changes in energy required to heat and cool buildings in the future climate at 14 different NASA site locations spread throughout the continental United States, as projected by CMIP6 climate models under different emissions scenarios. Bias-corrected downscaled time series of meteorological variables are taken from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Global Daily Downscaled Projections (GDDP-CMIP6) downscaled climate model data. The spread between the different model projections is accounted for by analyzing both the ensemble average of 22 CMIP6 models and 6 representative models with different climate sensitivities and different interannual variability. Changes in energy use are estimated in two ways. First, changes in the total annual heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD, respectively) are calculated relative to the current climate. This is done at all 14 sites. Second, the downscaled time series are used as inputs into RETScreen(R), a clean energy management decision tool, to give an estimate of heating/cooling energy use for a typical office building. We use this estimation method with model data at Langley Research Center. In the next 50 years, the annual total of HDD (CDD) is projected to decrease by 8-38% (increase by 5-28%) at all sites, with the increase in CDD typically a larger magnitude the decrease in HDD. For a typical small office building at Langley Research Center, the amount of energy needed to cool increases by 33-54% and the amount of energy to heat decreases by 29-40%. POWER is working to develop long term climate data services based on these results to include in future data products to provide to users.
Bradley M. Hegyi↗
The Use of Remote Sensing Data for Advancing America's Energy Policy
After briefly reviewing America's Energy Policy laid out by the Obama Administration, we outline how a Global Carbon Observing System designed to monitor Carbon from space can provide the necessary data and tools to equip decision makers with the knowledge necessary to formulate effective energy use and practices policy. To stabilize greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere in a manner that it does not interfere with the Earth's climate system (which is one of the goals of United Nations Framework for Convention on Climate Change) requires vastly improved prediction of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. This in torn requires a robust understanding of the carbon exchange mechanisms between atmosphere, land, and oceans and a clear understanding of the sources and sinks (i.e. uptake and storage) of CO2. We discuss how the Carbon Observing System from space aids in better understanding of the connection between the carbon cycle and climate change and provides more accurate predictions of atmospheric CO2 concentration. It also enables implementation of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies such as cap and trade programs, international climate treaties, as well as formulation of effective energy use policies.
Valinia, Azita↗
Earth System Modeling and Field Experiments in the Arctic-Boreal Zone - Report from a NASA Workshop
Early climate modeling studies predicted that the Arctic Ocean and surrounding circumpolar land masses would heat up earlier and faster than other parts of the planet as a result of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, augmented by the sea-ice albedo feedback effect. These predictions have been largely borne out by observations over the last thirty years. However, despite constant improvement, global climate models have greater difficulty in reproducing the current climate in the Arctic than elsewhere and the scatter between projections from different climate models is much larger in the Arctic than for other regions. Biogeochemical cycle (BGC) models indicate that the warming in the Arctic-Boreal Zone (ABZ) could lead to widespread thawing of the permafrost, along with massive releases of CO2 and CH4, and large-scale changes in the vegetation cover in the ABZ. However, the uncertainties associated with these BGC model predictions are even larger than those associated with the physical climate system models used to describe climate change. These deficiencies in climate and BGC models reflect, at least in part, an incomplete understanding of the Arctic climate system and can be related to inadequate observational data or analyses of existing data. A workshop was held at NASA/GSFC, May 22-24 2012, to assess the predictive capability of the models, prioritize the critical science questions; and make recommendations regarding new field experiments needed to improve model subcomponents. This presentation will summarize the findings and recommendations of the workshop, including the need for aircraft and flux tower measurements and extension of existing in-situ measurements to improve process modeling of both the physical climate and biogeochemical cycle systems. Studies should be directly linked to remote sensing investigations with a view to scaling up the improved process models to the Earth System Model scale. Data assimilation and observing system simulation studies should be used to guide the deployment pattern and schedule for inversion studies as well. Synthesis and integration of previously funded Arctic-Boreal projects (e.g., ABLE, BOREAS, ICESCAPE, ICEBRIDGE, ARCTAS) should also be undertaken. Such an effort would include the integration of multiple remotely sensed products from the EOS satellites and other resources.
Sellers, Piers↗
Explaining Earths Energy Budget: CERES-Based NASA Resources for K-12 Education and Public Outreach
Among atmospheric scientists, the importance of the Earth radiation budget concept is well understood. Papers have addressed the topic for over 100 years, and the large Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) science team (among others), with its multiple on-orbit instruments, is working hard to quantify the details of its various parts. In education, Earth's energy budget is a concept that generally appears in middle school and Earth science curricula, but its treatment in textbooks leaves much to be desired. Students and the public hold many misconceptions, and very few people have an appreciation for the importance of this energy balance to the conditions on Earth. More importantly, few have a correct mental model that allows them to make predictions and understand the effect of changes such as increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. As an outreach element of the core CERES team at NASA Langley, a multi-disciplinary group of scientists, educators, graphic artists, writers, and web developers has been developing and refining graphics and resources to explain the Earth's Energy budget over the last few decades. Resources have developed through an iterative process involving ongoing use in front of a variety of audiences, including students and teachers from 3rd to 12th grade as well as public audiences.
Chambers, L. H.↗
Fingerprints of External Forcing Agents on Sahel Rainfall: Aerosols, Greenhouse Gases, and Model-Observation Discrepancies
Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections.
Sahel↗
Seasonal Predictability of Cloud Droplet Number Concentration
Aerosol emissions modify the properties of clouds hence impacting climate. The aerosol indirect effect may have offset part of the global warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions during the industrial era. It however remains unclear whether the same effect is significant over time scales relevant for seasonal and weather climate prediction. Answering such a question has been difficult since most weather prediction systems lack a proper representation of the aerosol evolution and transport and their interaction with clouds. Even in advanced systems it is not clear to what extent cloud microphysical properties are predictable over subseasonal to seasonal time scales. Such an issue is addressed in this study. We use a set of 30 year, four ensemble member, 9 month lead hindcast simulations of the NASA GEOS seasonal prediction system (GEOS-S2S) to study the predictability of cloud droplet number concentration in warm stratocumulus clouds. The latest version GEOS-S2S system implements interactive aerosol as well as a two moment cloud microphysics scheme therefore it is suitable for studying the aerosol indirect effect on climate. Long term retrievals from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) are used to validate the model predictions and assess its skill in predicting cloud droplet number concentration.
Barahona, Donifan↗
Observational Evidence of Changes in Water Vapor, Clouds, and Radiation at the ARM SGP Site
Characterizing water vapor and cloud effects on the surface radiation budget is critical for understanding the current climate because water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in predicting potential future climate change. Several studies have shown that insolation over land declined until 1990 then increased until the present. Using 8 years of surface data, we observed the increasing trend of insolation from 1997 to 2000, but detected a significant decrease from 2001 to 2004. The variation of cloud fraction mirrors that of insolation with an overall increase of 1 percent per year. Under clear-sky conditions, water vapor changes have a greater impact on longwave flux than on insolation.
Dong, Xiquan↗
Observational Evidence of Changes in Water Vapor, Clouds, and Radiation at the ARM SGP Site
Characterizing water vapor and cloud effects on the surface radiation budget is critical for understanding the current climate because water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in predicting potential future climate change. Several studies have shown that insolation over land declined until 1990 then increased until the present. Using 8 years of data collected at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) surface site, we found that the insolation increased from 1997 to 2000, but significantly decreased from 2001 to 2004, changes that exactly mirror the variation in the second-order fit of cloud fraction. Under clear-sky conditions, the rates of water vapor, insolation and downwelling longwave (LW) flux are -0.166 cm/yr, 0.48 Wm(exp -2)/yr, and -1.16 Wm(exp -2)/yr, respectively, indicating that water vapor changes are more important for LW flux than for insolation.
Dong, Xiquan↗
Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.
Human influence on climate↗
New Raman Water Vapor and Temperature Lidar at JPL Table Mountain Facility: Optimization, Validations and Sonde Intercomparison
Jet Propulsion Laboratory currently operates lidar systems at Table Mountain Facility (TMF), California (34.4 deg N, 117.7 deg W at 2300m) and Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), Hawaii (19.5 deg N, 155.6 deg W at 3400m) under the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, formerly NDSC). To complement existing NDACC lidars at TMF, which acts as a primary site for inter-comparisons, a new water vapor and temperature lidar has begun routine operation with typically 3-4 nightly profiles per week. As water vapor is a key greenhouse gas, and is highly variable on annual and seasonal cycles, accurate long term measurements are necessary for predictions of climate change and to increase our understanding of the atmospheric processes it contributes to. The new TMF lidar has demonstrated high spatial and temporal resolution, with a high degree of optimization being achieved over the past year, although the authors believe further improvement may yet be possible. The lidar has been designed for accuracies of 5% up to 12km in the free troposphere with the capability to measure to the tropopause and lower stratosphere with accuracies of 1 ppm. It is anticipated that the data sets produced will be used for Aura validation and for incorporation into NDACC archives. Validation results for the optimized system are presented with intercomparisons using Vaisala RS92-K radiosondes.
water vapor↗
Radiometric Modeling and Calibration of the Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS)Ground Based Measurement Experiment
The ultimate remote sensing benefits of the high resolution Infrared radiance spectrometers will be realized with their geostationary satellite implementation in the form of imaging spectrometers. This will enable dynamic features of the atmosphere s thermodynamic fields and pollutant and greenhouse gas constituents to be observed for revolutionary improvements in weather forecasts and more accurate air quality and climate predictions. As an important step toward realizing this application objective, the Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) Engineering Demonstration Unit (EDU) was successfully developed under the NASA New Millennium Program, 2000-2006. The GIFTS-EDU instrument employs three focal plane arrays (FPAs), which gather measurements across the long-wave IR (LWIR), short/mid-wave IR (SMWIR), and visible spectral bands. The GIFTS calibration is achieved using internal blackbody calibration references at ambient (260 K) and hot (286 K) temperatures. In this paper, we introduce a refined calibration technique that utilizes Principle Component (PC) analysis to compensate for instrument distortions and artifacts, therefore, enhancing the absolute calibration accuracy. This method is applied to data collected during the GIFTS Ground Based Measurement (GBM) experiment, together with simultaneous observations by the accurately calibrated AERI (Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer), both simultaneously zenith viewing the sky through the same external scene mirror at ten-minute intervals throughout a cloudless day at Logan Utah on September 13, 2006. The accurately calibrated GIFTS radiances are produced using the first four PC scores in the GIFTS-AERI regression model. Temperature and moisture profiles retrieved from the PC-calibrated GIFTS radiances are verified against radiosonde measurements collected throughout the GIFTS sky measurement period. Using the GIFTS GBM calibration model, we compute the calibrated radiances from data collected during the moon tracking and viewing experiment events. From which, we derive the lunar surface temperature and emissivity associated with the moon viewing measurements.
Tian, Jialin↗
Was early Mars warmed by ammonia?
Runoff channels and valley networks present on ancient, heavily cratered Martian terrain suggests that the climate of Mars was originally warm and wet. One explanation for the formation of these channels is that the surface was warmed by the greenhouse effect of a dense, CO2 atmosphere. However, recent work shows that this theory is not consistent for the early period of the solar system. One way to increase the surface temperature predicted is to assume that other greenhouse gases were present in Mars' atmosphere in addition to CO2 and H2O. This possible gas is ammonia, NH3. If ammonia was present in sufficient quantities, it could have raised the surface temperature to 273 K. An adequate source would have been volcanic outgassing if the NH3 produced was shielded from photolysis by an ultraviolet light absorber.
Kasting, J. F.↗
FOREWORD: Satellite Remote Sensing Beyond 2015
Satellite remote sensing has progressed tremendously since the first Landsat was launched on June 23, 1972. Since the 1970s, satellite remote sensing and associated airborne and in situ measurements have resulted in vital and indispensable observations for understanding our planet through time. These observations have also led to dramatic improvements in numerical simulation models of the coupled atmosphere-land-ocean systems at increasing accuracies and predictive capability. The same observations document the Earth's climate and are driving the consensus that Homo sapiens is changing our climate through greenhouse gas emissions. These accomplishments are the combined work of many scientists from many countries and a dedicated cadre of engineers who build the instruments and satellites that collect Earth observation data from satellites, all working toward the goal of improving our understanding of the Earth. This edition of the Remote Sensing Handbook (Vol. I, II, and III) is a compendium of information for many research areas of our Planet that have contributed to our substantial progress since the 1970s. Remote sensing community is now using multiple sources of satellite and in situ data to advance our studies, what ever they might be. In the following paragraphs, I will illustrate how valuable and pivotal role satellite remote sensing has played in climate system study over last five decades, The Chapters in the Remote Sensing Handbook (Vol. I, II, and III) provides many other specific studies on land, water, and other applications using EO data of last five decades, The Landsat system of Earth-observing satellites has led the way in pioneering sustained observations of our planet. From 1972 to the present, at least one and sometimes two Landsat satellites have been in operation. Starting with the launch of the first NOAA-NASA Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites NOAA-6 in 1978, improved imaging of land, clouds, and oceans and atmospheric soundings of temperature were accomplished. The NOAA system of polar-orbiting meteorological satellites has continued uninterrupted since that time, providing vital observations for numerical weather prediction. These same satellites are also responsible for the remarkable records of sea surface temperature and land vegetation index from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) that now span more than 33 years, although no one anticipated these valuable climate records from this instrument before the launch of NOAA-7 in 1981. The success of data from the AVHRR led to the design of the MODIS instruments on NASA's Earth Observing System of satellite platforms that improved substantially upon the AVHRR. The first of the EOS platforms, Terra, was launched in 2000 and the second of these platforms, Aqua, was launched in 2002.
Tucker, Compton J.↗