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New estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food system were developed at the country level, for the period 1990–2018, integrating data from crop and livestock production, on-farm energy use, land use and land use change, domestic food transport and food waste disposal. With these new country-level components in place, and by adding global and regional estimates of energy use in food supply chains, we estimate that total GHG emissions from the food system were about 16 CO2eq yr−1 in 2018, or one-third of the global anthropogenic total. Three quarters of these emissions, 13 Gt CO2eq yr−1, were generated either within the farm gate or in pre- and post-production activities, such as manufacturing, transport, processing, and waste disposal. The remainder was generated through land use change at the conversion boundaries of natural ecosystems to agricultural land. Results further indicate that pre- and post-production emissions were proportionally more important in developed than in developing countries, and that during 1990–2018, land use change emissions decreased while pre- and post-production emissions increased. We also report results on a per capita basis, showing world total food systems per capita emissions decreasing during 1990–2018 from 2.9 to 2.2 t CO2eq cap−1, with per capita emissions in developed countries about twice those in developing countries in 2018. Our findings also highlight that conventional IPCC categories, used by countries to report emissions in the National GHG inventory, systematically underestimate the contribution of the food system to total anthropogenic emissions. We provide a comparative mapping of food system categories and activities in order to better quantify food-related emissions in national reporting and identify mitigation opportunities across the entire food system.
Data and analyses are presented on the utilization of aircraft fuel in the U.S. and the greenhouse gas emissions that they create. Aggregated commercial passenger and freight aviation flight data from 2016-2020 is captured from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics website is used to augment flight data from the Sherlock data warehouse at NASA Ames is used to determine the miles flown by major aircraft models. The corresponding fuel burn is estimated using the International Civilian Aviation Organization fuel burn tables and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated using a fuel-burn multiplicative factor. One key conclusion of this analysis is that long haul flights (i.e. >2485 statute miles) create a disproportionately large amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S while short flights (i.e. < 311 statute miles) contribute less than five percent of the U.S. aviation-related carbon dioxide emission. Although these short-haul flights may not have a large impact on overall carbon dioxide emissions, they will be a critical entry point for the adoption of future, larger fuel-efficient novel vehicles and the impact to future airport and infrastructure requirements. The final paper will present some estimates of the impact of advanced technologies on fuel burn and CO₂ emissions in various scenarios.
Data and analyses are presented on the utilization of aircraft fuel in the U.S. and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Commercial passenger and freight flight data and airport fuel consumption usage from 2016-2021 are captured from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics website and the Sherlock Data Warehouse managed at NASA Ames Research Center. The resulting dataset is used to determine the miles flown by major aircraft. The corresponding aircraft fuel burn is estimated based on the International Civilian Aviation Organization fuel burn tables, and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated using a fuel-burn multiplicative factor. One conclusion of this analysis is that long-haul flights (flight distances > 2485 statute miles) create a disproportionately large amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S, while short flights (< 311 statute miles) contribute less than five percent of the U.S. aviation-related carbon dioxide emissions. Although these short-haul flights may not have a large impact on overall carbon dioxide emissions, they will be valuable as demonstration missions for the next generation of electric, hybrid, and hydrogen-powered vehicles and their supporting energy infrastructures. This paper discusses recent trends in short-haul missions, their associated aircraft and airport types, and extracts several key requirements for future short-haul vehicles.
Data and analyses are presented on the utilization of aircraft fuel in the U.S. and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Commercial passenger and freight flight data and airport fuel consumption usage from 2016-2021 are captured from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics website and the Sherlock Data Warehouse managed at NASA Ames Research Center. The resulting dataset is used to determine the miles flown by major aircraft. The corresponding aircraft fuel burn is estimated based on the International Civilian Aviation Organization fuel burn tables, and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated using a fuel-burn multiplicative factor. One conclusion of this analysis is that long-haul flights (flight distances > 2485 statute miles) create a disproportionately large amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S, while short flights (< 311 statute miles) contribute less than five percent of the U.S. aviation-related carbon dioxide emissions. Although these short-haul flights may not have a large impact on overall carbon dioxide emissions, they will be valuable as demonstration missions for the next generation of electric, hybrid, and hydrogen-powered vehicles and their supporting energy infrastructures. This paper discusses recent trends in short-haul missions, their associated aircraft and airport types, and extracts several key requirements for future short-haul vehicles.
Data and analyses are presented on the utilization of aircraft in the U.S. and the greenhouse gas emissions that they create. Commercial passenger and cargo aviation flight data, captured in the Sherlock data warehouse at NASA Ames over the five years from 2016 to 2020, is used to estimate the miles flown by major aircraft models. The estimates for aggregate annual number of flights are validated against data published by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. The corresponding fuel usage is estimated using the International Civilian Aviation Organization (ICAO) fuel use tables and carbon dioxide emissions are calculated using a fuel-use multiplicative factor. A key conclusion of this analysis is that a small number of long-haul flights (with ranges greater than 2485 statute miles) create a disproportionately large fraction (30%) of annual total U.S. aviation-related carbon dioxide emissions, while a relatively large number of short flights (less than 311 statute miles) contribute a small net amount (less than 5%) of U.S. aviation-related carbon dioxide emissions. These U.S. results are consistent with a similar recent 2020 emissions study conducted by EUROCONTROL.
The critique by Rabilloud-whose only listed professional affiliation is an antinuclear activist groupis grossly biased and contains numerous misleading, hyperbolic, and erroneous claims about our paper2 and about nuclear energy in general. The nature of his comments bears a striking resemblance to the fallacious reasoning commonly employed by climate change deniers to try to undermine public concern about the climate crisis. Specifically, he resorts to cherry-picking of information and diversionary (red herring) arguments, demands unrealistic exactness, and cites untrustworthy sources. None of his claims undermine any of the key results of our paper, most notably our conclusion that nuclear energy has prevented, and can continue to prevent, a very high number of fatalities and very large greenhouse gas emissions due to fossil fuel burning. It follows that, as uncomfortable as it is for many well-intentioned environmentalists to admit, efforts to undermine nuclear energy also undermine mitigation of climate change and air pollution, with a heavy cost in human lives and potentially disastrous future climate change.
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In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000−7.04 million deaths and 80−240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.
We present results from the FAOSTAT emissions shares database, covering emissions from agri-food systems and their shares to total anthropogenic emissions for 196 countries and 40 territories for the period 1990–2019. We find that in 2019, global agri-food system emissions were 16.5 (95 %; CI range: 11–22) billion metric tonnes (GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)), corresponding to 31%(range: 19 %–43 %) of total anthropogenic emissions. Of the agri-food system total, global emissions within the farm gate – from crop and livestock production processes including on-farm energy use – were 7.2 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1); emissions from land use change, due to deforestation and peatland degradation, were 3.5 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1); and emissions from pre- and post-production processes – manufacturing of fertilizers, food processing, packaging, transport, retail, household consumption and food waste disposal – were 5.8 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1). Over the study period 1990–2019, agri-food system emissions increased in total by 17 %, largely driven by a doubling of emissions from pre- and post-production processes. Conversely, the FAOSTAT data show that since 1990 land use emissions decreased by 25 %, while emissions within the farm gate increased 9 %. In 2019, in terms of individual greenhouse gases (GHGs), pre- and postproduction processes emitted the most CO2 (3.9 GtCO2 yr(exp -1)), preceding land use change (3.3 GtCO2 yr(exp -1)) and farm gate (1.2 GtCO2 yr(exp -1)) emissions. Conversely, farm gate activities were by far the major emitter of methane (140 MtCH4 yr(exp -1)) and of nitrous oxide (7.8 MtN2Oyr(exp -1)). Pre- and post-production processes were also significant emitters of methane (49 MtCH4 yr(exp -1)), mostly generated from the decay of solid food waste in landfills and open dumps. One key trend over the 30-year period since 1990 highlighted by our analysis is the increasingly important role of food-related emissions generated outside of agricultural land, in pre- and post-production processes along the agri-food system, at global, regional and national scales. In fact, our data show that by 2019, pre- and post-production processes had overtaken farm gate processes to become the largest GHG component of agri-food system emissions in Annex I parties (2.2 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)). They also more than doubled in non-Annex I parties (to 3.5 GtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)), becoming larger than emissions from land use change. By 2019 food supply chains had become the largest agri-food system component in China (1100 MtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)), the USA (700 MtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)) and the EU-27 (600 MtCO2 eq. yr(exp -1)). This has important repercussions for food-relevant national mitigation strategies, considering that until recently these have focused mainly on reductions of non-CO2 gases within the farm gate and on CO2 mitigation from land use change. The information used in this work is available as open data with DOI https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5615082 (Tubiello et al., 2021d). It is also available to users via the FAOSTAT database (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/EM; FAO, 2021a), with annual updates.
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Sovacool et al.'s analysis of our paper contains numerous errors, misinterpretations, and dubious assumptions. For instance, we make no presumption in our paper that nuclear power is the only major option to replace fossil fuels nor have we in the past, as evidenced by our other peer-reviewed publications. Furthermore, all of our results are based on complete fuel cycle analysis and are presented as mean values along with their ranges. Thus it is incorrect to claim that we single out the worst estimates for coal mortality. Contrary to Sovacool et al.'s assertions, our only bias is our belief that humanity's best chance of success for mitigating the daunting challenge of climate change is to utilize all available and proven means.
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