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15 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Expanding Medicaid to Reduce Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Houston, Texas

Context: Medicaid expansion has been nationally shown to improve engagement in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment and prevention continua, which are vital steps to stopping the HIV epidemic. New HIV infections in the United States are disproportionately concentrated among young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM). Houston, TX, is the most populous city in the Southern United States with a racially/ethnically diverse population that is located in 1 of 11 US states that have not yet expanded Medicaid coverage as of 2021. Methods: An agent-based model that incorporated the sexual networks of YBMSM was used to simulate improved antiretroviral treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) engagement through Medicaid expansion in Houston, TX. Analyses considered the HIV incidence (number of new infections and as a rate metric) among YBMSM over the next 10 years under Medicaid expansion as the primary outcome. Additional scenarios, involving viral suppression and PrEP uptake above the projected levels achieved under Medicaid expansion, were also simulated. Results: The baseline model projected an HIV incidence rate of 4.96 per 100 person years (py) and about 368 new annual HIV infections in the 10th year. Improved HIV treatment and prevention continua engagement under Medicaid expansion resulted in a 14.9% decline in the number of annual new HIV infections in the 10th year. Increasing viral suppression by an additional 15% and PrEP uptake by 30% resulted in a 44.0% decline in new HIV infections in the 10th year, and a 27.1% decline in cumulative infections across the 10 years of the simulated intervention. Findings: Simulation results indicate that Medicaid expansion has the potential to reduce HIV incidence among YBMSM in Houston. Achieving HIV elimination objectives, however, might require additional effective measures to increase antiretroviral treatment and PrEP uptake beyond the projected improvements under expanded Medicaid.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

What Should Health Departments Do with HIV Sequence Data?

Many countries and US states have mandatory statues that require reporting of HIV clinical data including genetic sequencing results to the public health departments. Because genetic sequencing is a part of routine care for HIV infected persons, health departments have extensive sequence collections spanning years and even decades of the HIV epidemic. How should these data be used (or not) in public health practice? This is a complex, multi-faceted question that weighs personal risks against public health benefit. The answer is neither straightforward nor universal. However, to make that judgement—of how genetic sequence data should be used in describing and combating the HIV epidemic—we need a clear image of what a phylogenetically enhanced HIV surveillance system can do and what benefit it might provide. In this paper, we present a positive case for how up-to-date analysis of HIV sequence databases managed by health departments can provide unique and actionable information of how HIV is spreading in local communities. We discuss this question broadly, with examples from the US, as it is globally relevant for all health authorities that collect HIV genetic data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Staged progression epidemic models for the transmission of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) with treatment

We develop and analyze a stage-progression compartmental model to study the emerging invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. iNTS bloodstream infections are often fatal, and the diverse and non-specific clinical features of iNTS make it difficult to diagnose. We focus our study on identifying approaches that can reduce the incidence of new infections. In sub-Saharan Africa, transmission and mortality are correlated with the ongoing HIV epidemic and severe malnutrition. We use our model to quantify the impact that increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infected adults and reducing malnutrition in children would have on mortality from iNTS in the population. We consider immunocompromised subpopulations in the region with major risk factors for mortality, such as malaria and malnutrition among children and HIV infection and ART coverage in both children and adults. We parameterize the progression rates between infection stages using the branching probabilities and estimated time spent at each stage. We interpret the basic reproduction number R 0 as the total contribution from an infinite infection loop produced by the asymptomatic carriers in the infection chain. The results indicate that the asymptomatic HIV+ adults without ART serve as the driving force of infection for the iNTS epidemic. We conclude that the worst disease outcome is among the pediatric population, which has the highest infection rates and death counts. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the most effective strategies to reduce iNTS mortality in the studied population are to improve the ART coverage among high-risk HIV+ adults and reduce malnutrition among children.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Employing Molecular Phylodynamic Methods to Identify and Forecast HIV Transmission Clusters in Public Health Settings: A Qualitative Study

Molecular HIV surveillance is a promising public health strategy for curbing the HIV epidemic. Clustering technologies used by health departments to date are limited in their ability to infer/forecast cluster growth trajectories. Resolution of the spatiotemporal dynamics of clusters, through phylodynamic and phylogeographic modelling, is one potential strategy to develop a forecasting tool; however, the projected utility of this approach needs assessment. Prior to incorporating novel phylodynamic-based molecular surveillance tools, we sought to identify possible issues related to their feasibility, acceptability, interpretation, and utility. Qualitative data were collected via focus groups among field experts (n = 17, 52.9% female) using semi-structured, open-ended questions. Data were coded using an iterative process, first through the development of provisional themes and subthemes, followed by independent line-by-line coding by two coders. Most participants routinely used molecular methods for HIV surveillance. All agreed that linking molecular sequences to epidemiological data is important for improving HIV surveillance. We found that, in addition to methodological challenges, a variety of implementation barriers are expected in relation to the uptake of phylodynamic methods for HIV surveillance. The participants identified several opportunities to enhance current methods, as well as increase the usability and utility of promising works-in-progress.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-Term and Low-Level Envelope C2V3 Stimulation by Highly Diverse Virus Isolates Leads to Frequent Development of Broad and Elite Antibody Neutralization in HIV-1-Infected Individuals

A minority of HIV-1-infected patients produce broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs). Identification of viral and host correlates of bNAb production may help develop vaccines. We aimed to characterize the neutralizing response and viral and host-associated factors in Angola, which has one of the oldest, most dynamic, and most diverse HIV-1 epidemics in the world. Three hundred twenty-two HIV-1-infected adults from Angola were included in this retrospective study. Phylogenetic analysis of C2V3C3 env gene sequences was used for virus subtyping. Env-binding antibody reactivity was tested against polypeptides comprising the C2, V3, and C3 regions. Neutralizing-antibody responses were determined against a reference panel of tier 2 Env pseudoviruses in TZM-bl cells; neutralizing epitope specificities were predicted using ClustVis. All subtypes were found, along with untypeable strains and recombinant forms. Notably, 56% of the patients developed cross neutralizing, broadly neutralizing, or elite neutralizing responses. Broad and elite neutralization was associated with longer infection time, subtype C, lower CD4 + T cell counts, higher age, and higher titer of C2V3C3-specific antibodies relative to failure to develop bNAbs. Neutralizing antibodies targeted the V3-glycan supersite in most patients. V3 and C3 regions were significantly less variable in elite neutralizers than in weak neutralizers and nonneutralizers, suggesting an active role of V3C3-directed bNAbs in controlling HIV-1 replication and diversification. In conclusion, prolonged and low-level envelope V3C3 stimulation by highly diverse and ancestral HIV-1 isolates promotes the frequent elicitation of bNAbs. These results provide important clues for the development of an effective HIV-1 vaccine. Studies on neutralization by antibodies and their determinants in HIV-1-infected individuals have mostly been conducted in relatively recent epidemics caused by subtype B and C viruses. Results have suggested that elicitation of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) is uncommon. The mechanisms underlying the elicitation of bNAbs are still largely unknown. We performed the first characterization of the plasma neutralizing response in a cohort of HIV-1-infected patients from Angola. Angola is characterized by an old and dynamic epidemic caused by highly diverse HIV-1 variants. Remarkably, more than half of the patients produced bNAbs, mostly targeting the V3-glycan supersite in HIV-1. This was associated with higher age, longer infection time, lower CD4 + T cell counts, subtype C infection, or higher titer of C2V3C3-specific antibodies relative to patients that did not develop bNAbs. These results may help develop the next generation of vaccine candidates for HIV-1.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Divide and conquer: broadly neutralizing antibody combinations for improved HIV-1 viral coverage

Successful HIV-1 prevention and therapy will require broad and potent coverage of within-host and global viral diversity. Broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) combination and multispecific therapeutics provide an opportunity to meet this challenge due to the complementary activity of individual antibody components. Here, we review the principles and applications of this concept. The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials have demonstrated the high bar for neutralization potency and breadth that bNAb-mediated prevention modalities will need to achieve to have a meaningful impact on the HIV-1 epidemic. Additional clinical studies have recently shown that an even higher bar may be required for therapeutic inhibition of the diverse within-host quasispecies present in viremic and aviremic people with HIV-1 (PWH). We discuss how the complementarity of bNAbs in terms of neutralization profiles, resistance mutations and coverage of within-host quasispecies may overcome these stringent requirements and lead to effective bNAb combination or multispecific antibody based prophylactic and therapeutic strategies. The design of next-generation bNAb-based combination or multispecific therapeutics for the prevention and/or treatment of HIV-1 infection will need to leverage the complementarity of component bNAbs to maximize the potency and breadth that will be required for clinical success.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying impacts of contact tracing on HIV epidemiological inference from phylogenetic data

Abstract Robust sampling methods are foundational to inferences using phylogenies. Yet the impact of using contact tracing, a type of non-uniform sampling used in public health applications such as infectious disease outbreak investigations, has not been investigated in the molecular epidemiology field. To understand how contact tracing influences a recovered phylogeny, we developed a new simulation tool called SEEPS (Sequence Evolution and Epidemiological Process Simulator) that allows for the simulation of contact tracing and the resulting transmission tree, pathogen phylogeny, and corresponding virus genetic sequences. Importantly, SEEPS takes within-host evolution into account when generating pathogen phylogenies and sequences from transmission histories. Using SEEPS, we demonstrate that contact tracing can significantly impact the structure of the resulting tree, as described by popular tree statistics. Contact tracing generates phylogenies that are less balanced than the underlying transmission process, less representative of the larger epidemiological process, and affects the internal/external branch length ratios that characterize specific epidemiological scenarios. We also examined real data from a 2007–2008 Swedish HIV-1 outbreak and the broader 1998–2010 European HIV-1 epidemic to highlight the differences in contact tracing and expected phylogenies. Aided by SEEPS, we show that the data collection of the Swedish outbreak was strongly influenced by contact tracing even after downsampling, while the broader European Union epidemic showed little evidence of universal contact tracing, agreeing with the known epidemiological information about sampling and spread. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including possible non-uniform sampling schemes when examining phylogenetic trees. For that, SEEPS serves as a useful tool to evaluate such impacts, thereby facilitating better phylogenetic inferences of the characteristics of a disease outbreak. SEEPS is available at https://github.com/MolEvolEpid/SEEPS.

Virology↗
NASA NTRS1994

Rapid susceptibility testing of Mycobacterium avium complex and Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from AIDS patients

In ominous projections issued by both U.S. Public Health Service and the World Health Organization, the epidemic of HIV infection will continue to rise more rapidly worldwide than predicted earlier. The AIDS patients are susceptible to diseases called opportunistic infections of which tuberculosis and Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) infection are most common. This has created an urgent need to uncover new drugs for the treatment of these infections. In the seventies, NASA scientists at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, had adopted a biochemical indicator, adenosine triphosphate (ATP), to detect presence of life in extraterrestrial space. We proposed to develop ATP assay technique to determine sensitivity of antibacterial compounds against MAC and M. tuberculosis.

Dhople, Arvind M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Rapid susceptibility testing of mycobacterium avium complex and mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from AIDS patients

In ominous projections issued by both U.S. Public Health Service and the World Health Organization, the epidemic of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection will continue to rise more rapidly worldwide than predicted earlier. The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) patients are susceptible to diseases called opportunistic infections of which tuberculosis and M. avium Complex (MAC) infection are most common. This has created an urgent need to uncover new drugs for the treatment of these infections. In the seventies, NASA scientists at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, had adopted a biochemical indicator, adenosine triphosphate (ATP), to detect presence of life in extraterrestrial space. Therefore, we proposed to develop ATP assay technique to determine sensitivity of antibacterial compounds against MAC and M. tuberculosis. The work was initiated in June 1992. In the last report, we described our efforts in developing ATP assay method using MAC. Studies were continued further, and during the period of this report, we established the relationship between colony forming units and ATP levels of these organisms during the growth cycle. Also, we evaluated the effects of standard antimycobacterial drugs using ATP assay technique and compared the results with those obtained with conventional tube dilution proportional method.

Dhople, Arvind M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994–2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011–2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inferring transmission heterogeneity using virus genealogies: estimation and targeted prevention

Spread of HIV typically involves uneven transmission patterns where some individuals spread to a large number of individuals while others to only a few or none. Such transmission heterogeneity can impact how fast and how much an epidemic spreads. Further, more efficient interventions may be achieved by taking such transmission heterogeneity into account. To address these issues, we developed two phylogenetic methods based on virus sequence data: 1) to generally detect if significant transmission heterogeneity is present, and 2) to pinpoint where in a phylogeny high-level spread is occurring. We derive inference procedures to estimate model parameters, including the amount of transmission heterogeneity, in a sampled epidemic. We show that it is possible to detect transmission heterogeneity under a wide range of simulated situations, including incomplete sampling, varying levels of heterogeneity, and including within-host genetic diversity. When evaluating real HIV-1 data from different epidemic scenarios, we found a lower level of transmission heterogeneity in slowly spreading situations and a higher level of heterogeneity in data that included a rapid outbreak, while R0 and Sackin’s index (overall tree shape statistic) were similar in the two scenarios, suggesting that our new method is able to detect transmission heterogeneity in real data. We then show by simulations that targeted prevention, where we pinpoint high-level spread using a coalescence measurement, is efficient when sequence data are collected in an ongoing surveillance system. Such phylogeny-guided prevention is efficient under both single-step contact tracing as well as iterative contact tracing as compared to random intervention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic modelling of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases and the effects of therapeutics

Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes lead to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV), which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), West Nile virus (WNV), Zika virus, and SAR-CoV-2, which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. Furthermore, we then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”, and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bradbury Science Museum NOTEs Program Docs: Building Immunity: How fighting HIV and other viruses helps us understand our immune system

Building Immunity is a unique opportunity to journey through the history and development of your immune system. Our interactive touch table invites each user to choose their own, unique experience as they learn about how fighting HIV and other viruses helps researchers understand how our own immune systems work to keep us healthy. From the Bradbury Science Museum of Los Alamos National Laboratory, the exhibit presents remarkable insight into one of the most ancient and well-traveled organisms on the planet, viruses. Viral epidemics like the H1N1 flu, which killed over 40 million people in 1918, devastate communities around the world and destabilize regions around the globe. Additionally, their ability to mutate quickly creates a “Red Queen” effect, or loop of treated and then treatment-resistant strains of deadly diseases. Increased understanding of the relationships between viruses and our own immune system is crucial to the development of improved treatments and novel vaccines and this research is happening right now at Los Alamos National Laboratory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The relatively young and rural population may limit the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Africa: a modelling study

A novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to all regions of the world. There is great uncertainty regarding how countries’ characteristics will affect the spread of the epidemic; to date, there are few studies that attempt to predict the spread of the epidemic in African countries. In this paper, we investigate the role of demographic patterns, urbanisation and comorbidities on the possible trajectories of COVID-19 in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. We use an augmented deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to predict the true spread of the disease, under the containment measures taken so far. We disaggregate the infected compartment into asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic and severely symptomatic to match observed clinical development of COVID-19. We also account for age structures, urbanisation and comorbidities (HIV, tuberculosis, anaemia). In our baseline model, we project that the peak of active cases will occur in July, subject to the effectiveness of policy measures. When accounting for the urbanisation, and factoring in comorbidities, the peak may occur between 2 June and 17 June (Ghana), 22 July and 29 August (Kenya) and, finally, 28 May and 15 June (Senegal). Successful containment policies could lead to lower rates of severe infections. While most cases will be mild, we project in the absence of policies further containing the spread, that between 0.78% and 1.03%, 0.61% and 1.22%, and 0.60% and 0.84% of individuals in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal, respectively, may develop severe symptoms at the time of the peak of the epidemic. Compared with Europe, Africa’s younger and rural population may modify the severity of the epidemic. The large youth population may lead to more infections but most of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, and will probably go undetected. The higher prevalence of underlying conditions must be considered.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transition from susceptible-infected to susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics in a susceptible-cleric-zombie-recovered active matter model

The susceptible-infected (SI) and susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models provide two distinct representations of epidemic evolution, distinguished by whether or not the number of susceptibles always drops to zero at long times. Here, in this study, we introduce a new active matter epidemic model, the “susceptible-cleric-zombie-recovered” (SCZR) model, in which spontaneous recovery is absent but zombies can recover with probability γ via interaction with a cleric. Upon colliding with a zombie, both susceptibles and clerics enter the zombie state with probability β and α, respectively. By changing the initial fraction of clerics or their healing ability rate γ, we can tune the SCZR model between SI dynamics, in which no susceptibles or clerics remain at long times, and SIR dynamics, in which a finite number of clerics and susceptibles survive at long times. The model is relevant to certain real world diseases such as HIV where spontaneous recovery is impossible but where medical interventions by a limited number of caregivers can reduce or eliminate the spread of infection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗