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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Design Basis Document / Owner’s Technical Specification for Nitrate Salt Systems in CSP Projects: Hypothesis of Hot Tank Failure

Work has begun on a Design Basis Document / Owner’s Technical Specification for parabolic trough and central receiver power plants using nitrate salt as the heat transport fluid and the thermal storage medium. A principal topic of recent interest is the failures of the hot salt tanks in central receiver projects. The paper outlines a hypothesis for the source of the failures, and discusses a range of possible solutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The channel-source hypothesis: Empirical evidence for in-channel sourcing of dissolved organic carbon to explain hysteresis in a headwater mountain stream

Catchment hydrologists have long puzzled over the question: How can catchments rapidly generate storm flows and pulses of solutes in response to storm events? Conceptual models viewing catchments as composed of discrete source areas generating flow at unique time scales and with unique chemical characteristics have been used to explain the observed changes in flow and water chemistry. Surprisingly, those conceptual models usually do not treat the stream channel as one of the potential source areas. We propose the channel-source hypothesis in which the stream itself should be considered as a potential source with the same rigour as other contributing areas. We pose this in the spirit of the scientific use of the word: a hypothesis is not a proven idea but rather a provisional supposition serving as the basis for further study. We suggest that the channel should be considered as a potential source for dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Channels store substantial amounts of organic matter, and stream ecologists have long studied stream carbon cycling. From those studies, we know that leaching and decomposition can generate DOC from particulate organic carbon (POC). Further, POC is stored in channel ‘dead-zones’—regions of low flow velocity - that can be activated as flow velocity increases, thus releasing accumulated DOC during storms. All catchments are different; there is no reason to assume that channel sources are always important, in every catchment, in every storm. Thus, the channel-source hypothesis does not replace existing conceptual models. Instead, it adds another potential mechanism that may explain DOC dynamics observed in streams. The channel-source hypothesis has substantial implications for catchment studies examining sources of DOC in stream water or using DOC as a tracer to determine the locations of, and proportional contributions of, different source areas for streamflow generation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modified Brink-Axel hypothesis for astrophysical Gamow-Teller transitions

Weak interaction charged current transition strengths from highly excited nuclear states are fundamental ingredients for accurate modeling of compact object composition and dynamics, but are difficult to obtain either from experiment or theory. For lack of alternatives, calculations have often fallen back upon a generalized Brink-Axel hypothesis, that is, assuming the strength function (transition probability) is independent of the initial nuclear state but depends only upon the transition energy and the weak interaction properties of the parent nucleus ground state. Here we present numerical evidence for a modified “local” Brink-Axel hypothesis for Gamow-Teller transitions for pf-shell nuclei relevant to astrophysical applications. Specifically, while the original Brink-Axel hypothesis does not hold globally, strength functions from initial states nearby in energy are similar within statistical fluctuations. This agrees with previous work on strength function moments. Using this modified hypothesis, we can tackle strength functions at previously intractable initial energies, using semiconverged initial states at arbitrary excitation energy. Our work provides a well-founded method for computing accurate thermal weak transition rates for medium-mass nuclei at temperatures occurring in stellar cores near collapse. We finish by comparing results to previous calculations of astrophysical rates.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

The QT interval in lightning injury with implications for the cessation of metabolism hypothesis

An hypothesis is presented to provide an alternative to the Cessation of Metabolism hypothesis often invoked in lightning injury. Cessation of Metabolism has been proposed to explain the observation of good recovery after a prolonged period in cardiac arrest in some lightning injured patients. Reevaluation of EEGs from lightning injured patients show a high incidence of QT prolongation. Reexamination of the cases used to support Cessation of Metabolism also reveals little evidence to justify the hypothesis. The finding of QT prolongation coupled with the hyperadrenergic state said to exist in lightning injury, may promote a state of episodic induction of and recovery from Torsade de Pointes Ventricular Tachycardia (VT). Histological examination of the myocardium supports the new hypothesis. This the first concerted description of lightning injury as one of the general causes of QT prolongation. It appears to occur frequently after lightning injury, is a prerequisite of and predisposes to episodes of Torsade de Pointes VT. These electrocardiographic abnormalities explain Cessation of Metabolism and recognition may change management and lead to greater survival.

Andrews, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comments on "The "Elevated Heat Pump" Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: "Grounded" in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

In their recent paper Nigam and Bollasina [2010, hereafter NB] claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the Elevated Heat Pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Km 2006). We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from a lack of understanding and an out-of-context interpretation of the hypothesis. It was argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May as evidences against the EHP hypothesis. They cannot be more wrong in that argument. First, Lau and Kim [2006, hereafter, LKO6] never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are non-local in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. Third, the correlation maps shown in NB, including the increased convection over the Bay of Bengal is not the response to EHP but rather represents the large-scale circulation that provides the build-up of the aerosols, before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no wash-out by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Comment on "'Elevated Heat Pump' Hypothesis for the Aerosol-Monsoon Hydroclimate Link: 'Grounded' in Observations?" by S. Nigam and M. Bollasina

In their recent paper, Nigam and Bollasina [2010] (hereinafter NB) claimed to have found observational evidences that are at variance with the elevated heat pump (EHP) hypothesis regarding the possible impacts of absorbing aerosols on the South Asian summer monsoon [Lau et al., 2006; Lau and Kim, 2006]. We found NB's arguments and inferences against the EHP hypothesis flawed, stemming from their own out of context interpretation of the hypothesis. NB argued that the simultaneous negative correlation of aerosol with rainfall, and correlations with other quantities in May, are evidence against the EHP hypothesis. Their argument cannot be justified. First, Lau and Kim [2006] (hereinafter LK06) never stated that the main rainfall response to EHP is in May. Second, the EHP is about responses of the entire Indian monsoon system that are nonlocal in space and time with respect to the aerosol forcing. As shown in Figure 4 of LK06, while the aerosol anomalies are strongest in April-May, the strongest rainfall response is in June-July, with the enhanced rainfall fed by an induced thermally driven circulation which brings additional moisture from the ocean to the Indian subcontinent. Third, the increased rainfall over the Bay of Bengal as shown in Figure 1a of NB and the increased low-level convergence in Figure 1f of NB do not necessarily reflect responses associated with EHP but rather the large ]scale circulation that provides the buildup of the aerosols before the onset of the monsoon rainfall over India. Because aerosol can only accumulate where there is little or no washout by rain, the negative correlation is a necessary condition for increased atmospheric loading of aerosols. For the same reason, the spatial distributions of rainfall and aerosol generally are offset with each other, i.e., high aerosol in regions of low rainfall. This is evident in Figure 1, which shows the climatological mean of the MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD), and TRMM rainfall over India in May. The maximum AOD is found over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the desert regions of northwest India and Pakistan

Lau, K. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi‐hypothesis comparison of Farquhar and Collatz photosynthesis models reveals the unexpected influence of empirical assumptions at leaf and global scales

Abstract Mechanistic photosynthesis models are at the heart of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) simulating the daily, monthly, annual and decadal rhythms of carbon assimilation ( A ). These models are founded on robust mathematical hypotheses that describe how A responds to changes in light and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Two predominant photosynthesis models are in common usage: Farquhar (FvCB) and Collatz (CBGB). However, a detailed quantitative comparison of these two models has never been undertaken. In this study, we unify the FvCB and CBGB models to a common parameter set and use novel multi‐hypothesis methods (that account for both hypothesis and parameter variability) for process‐level sensitivity analysis. These models represent three key biological processes: carboxylation, electron transport, triose phosphate use (TPU) and an additional model process: limiting‐rate selection. Each of the four processes comprises 1–3 alternative hypotheses giving 12 possible individual models with a total of 14 parameters. To broaden inference, TBM simulations were run and novel, high‐resolution photosynthesis measurements were made. We show that parameters associated with carboxylation are the most influential parameters but also reveal the surprising and marked dominance of the limiting‐rate selection process (accounting for 57% of the variation in A vs. 22% for carboxylation). The limiting‐rate selection assumption proposed by CBGB smooths the transition between limiting rates and always reduces A below the minimum of all potentially limiting rates, by up to 25%, effectively imposing a fourth limitation on A . Evaluation of the CBGB smoothing function in three TBMs demonstrated a reduction in global A by 4%–10%, equivalent to 50%–160% of current annual fossil fuel emissions. This analysis reveals a surprising and previously unquantified influence of a process that has been integral to many TBMs for decades, highlighting the value of multi‐hypothesis methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical significance of the sterile-neutrino hypothesis in the context of reactor and gallium data

We evaluate the statistical significance of the 3+1 sterile-neutrino hypothesis using $v_e$ and $\bar{v}_e$ disappearance data from reactor, solar and gallium radioactive source experiments. Concerning the latter, we investigate the implications of the recent BEST results. For reactor data we focus on relative measurements independent of flux predictions. For the problem at hand, the usual χ 2 -approximation to hypothesis testing based on Wilks’ theorem has been shown in the literature to be inaccurate. We therefore present results based on Monte Carlo simulations, and find that this typically reduces the significance by roughly 1σ with respect to the naïve expectation. We find no significant indication in favor of sterile-neutrino oscillations from reactor data. On the other hand, gallium data (dominated by the BEST result) show more than 5σ of evidence supporting the sterile-neutrino hypothesis, favoring oscillation parameters in agreement with constraints from reactor data. This explanation is, however, in significant tension (~3 σ) with solar neutrino experiments. In order to assess the robustness of the signal for gallium experiments we present a discussion of the impact of cross-section uncertainties on the results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flux Hypothesis for Odd Transport Phenomena

Onsager's regression hypothesis makes a fundamental connection between macroscopic transport phenomena and the average relaxation of spontaneous microscopic fluctuations. This relaxation, however, is agnostic to odd transport phenomena, in which fluxes run orthogonal to the gradients driving them. To account for odd transport, we generalize the regression hypothesis, postulating that macroscopic linear constitutive laws are, on average, obeyed by microscopic fluctuations, whether they contribute to relaxation or not. From this "flux hypothesis," Green-Kubo and reciprocal relations follow, elucidating the separate roles of broken time-reversal and parity symmetries underlying various odd transport coefficients. As an application, we derive and verify the Green-Kubo relation for odd collective diffusion in chiral active matter, first in an analytically tractable model and subsequently through molecular dynamics simulations of concentrated active spinners.

Hargus, Cory↗
NASA NTRS1982

Pilot model hypothesis testing

The aircraft control time history predicted by the optimal control pilot model and actual pilot tracking data obtained from NASA Langley's differential maneuvering simulator (DMS) are analyzed. The analysis is performed using a hypothesis testing scheme modified to allow for changes in the true hypothesis. A finite number of pilot models, each with different hypothesized internal model representations of the aircraft dynamics, are constructed. The hypothesis testing scheme determines the relative probability that each pilot model best matches the DMS data. By observing the changes in probabilities, it is possible to determine when the pilot changes control strategy and which hypothesized pilot model best represent's the pilot's control behavior.

Broussard, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Tests of the lunar hypothesis

The concept that the Moon was fissioned from the Earth after core separation is the most readily testable hypothesis of lunar origin, since direct comparisons of lunar and terrestrial compositions can be made. Differences found in such comparisons introduce so many ad hoc adjustments to the fission hypothesis that it becomes untestable. Further constraints may be obtained from attempting to date the volatile-refractory element fractionation. The combination of chemical and isotopic problems suggests that the fission hypothesis is no longer viable, and separate terrestrial and lunar accretion from a population of fractionated precursor planetesimals provides a more reasonable explanation.

Taylor, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

On Using Taylor's Hypothesis for Three-Dimensional Mixing Layers

In the present study, errors in using Taylor's hypothesis to transform measurements obtained in a temporal (or phase) frame onto a spatial one were evaluated. For the first time, phase-averaged ('real') spanwise and streamwise vorticity data measured on a three-dimensional grid were compared directly to those obtained using Taylor's hypothesis. The results show that even the qualitative features of the spanwise and streamwise vorticity distributions given by the two techniques can be very different. This is particularly true in the region of the spanwise roller pairing. The phase-averaged spanwise and streamwise peak vorticity levels given by Taylor's hypothesis are typically lower (by up to 40%) compared to the real measurements.

LeBoeuf, Richard L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

On Using Taylor's Hypothesis for Three-Dimensional Mixing Layers

In the present study, errors in using Taylor's hypothesis to transform measurements obtained in a temporal (or phase) frame onto a spatial one were evaluated. For the first time, phase-averaged ('real') spanwise and streamwise vorticity data measured on a three-dimensional grid were compared directly to those obtained using Taylor's hypothesis. The results show that even the qualitative features of the spanwise and streamwise vorticity distributions given by the two techniques can be very different. This is particularly true in the region of the spanwise roller pairing. The phase-averaged spanwise and streamwise peak vorticity levels given by Taylor's hypothesis are typically lower (by up to 40%) compared to the real measurements.

LeBoeuf, Richard L.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Testing the Martian Methane from Cometary Debris Hypothesis: The Unusually Close 24 Jan 2018 Interaction Between Comet C/2007 H2 (Skiff) and Mars

In previous work we proposed a hypothesis wherein debris moving along cometary orbits interacting with Mars (e.g. meteor showers) may be responsible for transient local increases of methane observed in the martian atmosphere (henceforth 'the hypothesis' ). An examination of the literature of methane detections dating back to 1997 showed that each detection was made, at most, 16 days after an interaction between Mars and one of seven small bodies (six comets and the unusual object 5335 Damocles)[ibid]. Two observations of high-altitude, transient visible plumes on Mars also correlate with cometary interactions, one occurring on the same day as the plume observation and the second observation occurring three days afterwards, and with two of the same seven small bodies. The proposed mechanism for methane production is dissemination of carbon-rich cometary material on infall into Mars' atmosphere followed by methane production via UV photolysis, a process that has been observed in laboratory experiments. Given this set of observations it is necessary and indeed conducive to the scientific process to explore and robustly test the hypothesis.

Fries, M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Rules to Reasoning: A Survey of Large Language Model-Based Approaches to Scientific Hypothesis and Idea Generation

Scientific hypothesis generation represents a fundamental challenge in contemporary research due to exponentially expanding literature volumes and increasing disciplinary specialization. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools for automated scientific discovery, moving beyond traditional rule-based and literature-mining approaches. Four paradigmatic approaches define current LLM-driven hypothesis generation: direct prompting and fine-tuning methods, knowledge-enhanced frameworks integrating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), multi-agent collaborative systems simulating research teams, and reasoning-focused approaches implementing cognitive architectures. Domain-specific applications demonstrate statistical equivalence to human expert performance in social psychology, experimental validation in biomedical research, and near-expert quality in astronomy. Evaluation methodologies encompass human expert assessment, LLM-as-judge frameworks, and comprehensive benchmarking systems. Technical challenges include hallucination management, knowledge integration limitations, and balancing novelty with feasibility. Future directions emphasize hybrid neural-symbolic architectures and sophisticated human-AI collaboration models for responsible scientific discovery acceleration.

AI-driven discovery↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hypothesis Learning in Automated Experiment: Application to Combinatorial Materials Libraries

Machine learning is rapidly becoming an integral part of experimental physical discovery via automated and high-throughput synthesis, and active experiments in scattering and electron/probe microscopy. This, in turn, necessitates the development of active learning methods capable of exploring relevant parameter spaces with the smallest number of steps. In this work, an active learning approach based on conavigation of the hypothesis and experimental spaces is introduced. This is realized by combining the structured Gaussian processes containing probabilistic models of the possible system's behaviors (hypotheses) with reinforcement learning policy refinement (discovery). This approach closely resembles classical human-driven physical discovery, when several alternative hypotheses realized via models with adjustable parameters are tested during an experiment. This approach is demonstrated for exploring concentration-induced phase transitions in combinatorial libraries of Sm-doped BiFeO 3 using piezoresponse force microscopy, but it is straightforward to extend it to higher-dimensional parameter spaces and more complex physical problems once the experimental workflow and hypothesis generation are available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Insights into Prismatic Loop Formation in Irradiated Fe–Cr Alloys from Hypothesis-Driven Active Learning and Causal Analysis

Neutron and electron irradiation experimental studies conducted on body-centered cubic Fe and Fe–Cr alloys have established two prismatic dislocation loop populations, which have Burgers vectors of either a/2$\langle$111$\rangle$ or a$\langle$100$\rangle$. Here, the loop formation depends on factors such as dose (D), dose rate (D rt ), temperature (T), chromium content (Cr%), and other alloying elements. Hence, it is important to understand how irradiation-induced dislocation loops evolve conditional upon the loop characteristics, such as loop density (DD), average loop size d̅, and irradiation parameters (D, D rt , T, and irradiation type), which is still an active area of research. To understand these complex structure–property relationships, machine learning (ML) is employed in a three-step approach. This includes imputing missing data with a k-nearest neighbor, generating functionalized features, and assessing feature importance with random forest classification and regression. Physics-based features are incorporated in a hypothesis-driven active learning scheme to overcome data unavailability challenges. Insights obtained from ML models (i) to categorize dislocation loop types, show the highest correlation with d̅; (ii) Log(DD), obtained through mathematical formulations involving D, Cr%, d̅, and T (e.g., Log(DD) ~ D + exp(-Cr%) + 1/d̅ and log(DD) ~ D + exp(-Cr%) + 1/T). Hypothesis-driven active learning is able to predict Log(DD) in which the experimental date is not known. Causal models verify cause–effect relationships for dislocation loop classification and irradiation factors in FeCr alloys.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗