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Play Fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawai‘i: 4. Updates with new groundwater chemistry, subsurface stress analysis, and focused geophysical surveys

This paper is the fourth in a series on a play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawai‘i. Here we describe recent exploration activities that include groundwater sampling in ten locations statewide, as well as geophysical surveys on Lana‘i, across the SW rift of Haleakala Volcano (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea Volcano (Hawai‘i Island). We derive a first-order method for computing topographic stress using Green’s functions, finding that topography can induce appreciable crustal stress. We develop a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and topographic stresses into our previously published equations to calculate resource probability and confidence. We incorporate newly collected and modeled data into our calculations to update statewide maps of probability and confidence. Lana‘i Island and southeast Mauna Kea are identified as the top targets for exploratory drilling. The east rift of Haleakala Volcano, the southern-most region of Mauna Loa’s SW rift (Hawai‘i Island), and central Kauai are identified as targets for geophysical surveying.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Hawaii Play Fairway Analysis: Noble Gas Raw Data for Hawaii, Maui, Oahu, Kauai, and Lanai islands

Noble gas raw data for the Hawaiian islands of Big Island, Maui, Oahu, Lanai, and Kauai. Based on results from prior phases of the Hawaii Play Fairway Analysis, this project targeted 66 wells on the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Lanai, Oahu, and Kauai for sampling of dissolved noble gases, trace metals, common ions, and the stable isotopes 2H and 18O. Ultimately, 23 of the 66 well targets were sampled. Noble gas data from this study is supplemented with data shared by the United States Geologic Survey for the summit of Kilauea, and by the geothermal energy company Ormat Technologies Inc. for their geothermal power plant Puna Geothermal Venture on the Lower East Rift of Kilauea, and for their exploration of Kona and Hualalai on Hawaii, as well as the Southwest Rift of Haleakala on Maui. The noble gas helium is used as an indicator of geothermal heat when excess 3He and/or 4He is present when compared to the atmospheric ratio of those isotopes (R/Ra). R/Ra is minimally affected by dilution and transport, allowing even those wells not perfectly situated over a geothermal system to indicate a geothermal anomaly. R/Ra anomalies are present on every island in this study. There is a strong correlation between R/Ra anomalies and proximity to rift zones and calderas. The Hawaii Play Fairway project was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office (award DE-EE0006729). For more information, see Colin Ferguson's Master of Science thesis "Exploration for Blind Geothermal Resources in the State of Hawaii Utilizing Dissolved Noble Gasses in Well Waters."

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Hawaii Play Fairway Analysis: Lanai Resistivity and Density 3D Inversion Models

To prepare for its third phase, the Hawaii Play Fairway project conducted groundwater sampling and analyses in ten locations in the Hawaiian islands, magnetotelluric (MT) and gravity surveys, as well as calculations of 3D subsurface stress due to the weight of the rock underlying the topography of the volcano. The subsurface stresses were used to evaluate the potential for fracture-induced permeability. Inversions of the MT and gravity data produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on Lanai, across Haleakala's SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawaii Island). The project developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The project then incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. These results were used to identify target sites for exploratory drilling. Spreadsheet information: Each sheet contains data for a particular depth in kilometers. Positive depths are above sea level, and negative below. For more information, go to the Hawaii Groundwater and Geothermal Resources Center website linked in the resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Midwinter Dry Spells Amplify Post‐Fire Snowpack Decline

Abstract Increasing wildfire and declining snowpacks in mountain regions threaten water availability. We combine satellite‐based fire detections with snow seasonality classifications to examine fire activity in California's seasonal and ephemeral snow zones. We find a nearly tenfold increase in fire activity during 2020–2021 versus 2001–2019. Accumulation season broadband snow albedo declined 25%–71% at two burned sites (2021 and 2022) according to in‐situ data relative to un‐burned conditions, with greater declines associated with increased burn severity. By enhancing snowpack susceptibility to melt, both decreased snow albedo and canopy drove midwinter melt during a multi‐week dry spell in 2022. Despite similar meteorological conditions in December–February 2013 and 2022–linked to persistent high pressure weather regimes–minimal melt occurred in 2013. Post‐fire snowpack differences are confirmed with satellite measurements. With growing geographical overlap between wildfire and snow, our findings suggest California's snowpack is increasingly vulnerable to the compounding effects of dry spells and wildfire.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗