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At least 19 records

Estimating the Acute Health Impacts of Fire-Originated PM 2.5 Exposure During the 2017 California Wildfires: Sensitivity to Choices of Inputs

Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Health impact assessments, used to inform decision-making processes, characterize the health impacts of environmental exposures by combining preexisting epidemiological concentration–response functions (CRFs) with estimates of exposure. These two key inputs influence the magnitude and uncertainty of the health impacts estimated, but for wildfire-related impact assessments the extent of their impact is largely unknown. We first estimated the number of respiratory, cardiovascular, and asthma hospital admissions attributable to fire-originated PM 2.5 exposure in central California during the October 2017 wildfires, using Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty with respect to the exposure and epidemiological inputs. We next conducted sensitivity analyses, comparing four estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 and two CRFs, wildfire and nonwildfire specific, to understand their impact on the estimation of excess admissions and sources of uncertainty. We estimate the fires accounted for an excess 240 (95% CI: 114, 404) respiratory, 68 (95% CI: -10, 159) cardiovascular, and 45 (95% CI: 18, 81) asthma hospital admissions, with 56% of admissions occurring in the Bay Area. Although differences between impact assessment methods are not statistically significant, the admissions estimates' magnitude is particularly sensitive to the CRF specified while the uncertainty is most sensitive to estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 . Not accounting for the exposure surface's uncertainty leads to an underestimation of the uncertainty of the health impacts estimated. Employing context-specific CRFs and using accurate exposure estimates that combine multiple data sets generates more certain estimates of the acute health impacts of wildfires.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Air quality and health impacts of the 2020 wildfires in California

Abstract Background Wildfires in 2020 ravaged California to set the annual record of area burned to date. Clusters of wildfires in Northern California surrounded the Bay Area covering the skies with smoke and raising the air pollutant concentrations to hazardous levels. This study uses the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research database and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model to estimate the effects of wildfire emissions on air quality during the period from August 16 to October 28 of 2020. In addition, low-cost sensor data for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from the PurpleAir network is used to enhance modeled PM 2.5 concentrations. The resulting impacts on ozone and PM 2.5 are used to quantify the health impacts caused by wildfires using the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition. Results Wildfire activity significantly increased direct PM 2.5 emissions and emissions of PM 2.5 and ozone precursors. Direct PM 2.5 emissions surged up to 38 times compared to an average day. Modeling results indicated that wildfires alone led to a rise in ozone daily maximum 8-h average by up to 10 ppb and exceeded PM 2.5 air quality standards in numerous locations by up to 10 times. While modeled PM 2.5 concentrations were lower than measurements, correcting these with PurpleAir data improved the accuracy. The correction using PurpleAir data increased estimates of wildfire-induced mortality due to PM 2.5 exposure by up to 16%. Conclusions The increased hospital admissions and premature mortality attributed to wildfires were found to be comparable to the health impacts avoided by strategies aimed at meeting ozone and PM2.5 air quality standards. This suggests that widespread wildfire emissions can negate years of efforts dedicated to controlling air pollution. The integration of low-cost sensor data proved invaluable in refining the estimates of health impacts from PM2.5 resulting from wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Desert Dust, Industrialization and Agricultural Fires: Health Impacts of Outdoor Air Pollution in Africa

The African continent continuously experiences extreme aerosol load conditions, during which the World Health Organizational (WHO) clean air standard of 10 μgm(exp ‐3) of PM(2.5) mass is systematically exceeded. Africa holds the world largest source of desert dust emissions, undergoes strong industrial growth, and produces approximately a third of the Earth's biomass burning aerosol particles. Sub‐Saharan biomass burning is driven by agricultural practices, such as burning fields and bushes in the post‐harvest season for fertilization, land management and pest control. Thus, these emissions are predominantly anthropogenic. Here we use global atmospheric composition, climate, and health models to simulate the chemical composition of the atmosphere and calculate the mortality rates for Africa by distinguishing between purely natural, industrial/domestic and biomass burning emissions. Air quality related deaths in Africa rank within the top leading causes of death in Africa. Our results of ~780,000 premature deaths annually point to the extensive health impacts of natural emissions, high mortality rate caused by industrialization in Nigeria and South Africa, and to a smaller extent by fire emissions in Central and West Africa. 43,000 premature deaths in Africa are linked to biomass burning mainly driven by agriculture. Our results also show that natural sources, in particular windblown dust emissions, have large impacts on air quality and human health in Africa.

fires↗

Overview of The Inaugural Space Health Impacts for the NASA Experience (SHINE) Training Program – Virtual Space Radiation Curriculum

The Space Radiation Element of the NASA Human Research Program initiated a virtual, annual space radiation curriculum. The Space Health Impacts for the NASA Experience (SHINE) space radiation didactic curriculum aims to educate participants not only in the scientific aspects of space radiation but also in the agency’s risk management strategies. SHINE combines weekly seminars by speakers from NASA, other government agencies, academia, and industry, with networking sessions designed to foster collaboration between participants and interactions with NASA scientists and HRP funded investigators. The inaugural course ran weekly from February 2023 to August 2023 and was comprised of lectures, less formal coffee hours and office hours. The SHINE topics ranged from space environments to health effects and countermeasure to granting opportunities. Participants developed beam time proposals for real, proposed, or potential experiments at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. For the 2023 course, a total of 59 applications were received from which 25 participants were selected. Selected participants were citizens from 8 countries and comprised 5 graduate students, 4 postdocs, 11 scientists and 5 professors/medical doctors. Participants had a wide range of expertise including molecular and cellular biology, microbiology, botany, physiology, engineering, physics, aerospace medicine, planetary science, biostatistics, and modeling. The second annual SHINE training program is scheduled from February to August 2024. In addition, a separate SHINE space radiation practicum session, to allow participants to gain hands-on radiation experience, will be held Fall 2024 at the NSRL.

Radiation↗

NASA's Space Health Impacts for the NASA Experience (SHINE) Training Program – Space Radiation Curriculum

In February 2023, the Space Radiation Element of the NASA Human Research Program initiated a virtual, annual space radiation curriculum. The Space Health Impacts for the NASA Experience (SHINE) Space Radiation Didactic Curriculum aims to educate participants not only in the scientific aspects of space radiation but also in the agency’s risk management strategies. SHINE Space Radiation Didactic Curriculum combined weekly seminars by speakers from NASA, other government agencies, academia, and industry, with networking sessions designed to foster collaboration between the competitively selected participants as well as interactions with NASA scientists and HRP funded investigators. The inaugural course ran weekly from February 2023 to August 2023 and was comprised of lectures, less formal coffee hours, and office hours. Each two-hour seminar sessions hosted 1-3 presentations on topics which ranged from the space radiation environment to health effects and countermeasure to granting opportunities. All lectures were recorded and will be published on the THREE (The Health Risks of Extraterrestrial Environments) website for public access (https://three.jsc.nasa.gov/). As a course requirement, participants developed individual or collaborative beam time proposals for real, proposed, or potential experiments at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. For the 2023 course, 25 participants were selected from a total of 59 applicants. Selected participants were citizens from 8 countries and comprised 5 graduate students, 4 postdocs, 11 scientists and 5 professors/medical doctors. Participants had a wide range of expertise including molecular and cellular biology, microbiology, botany, physiology, engineering, physics, aerospace medicine, planetary science, biostatistics, and modeling. The second annual SHINE training program is scheduled from February to August 2024. In addition, a separate SHINE Space Radiation Practicum session will be held in Fall 2024 at the NSRL. The SHINE Space Radiation Practicum is a unique opportunity that has not been available to the public since the closure of the NASA Space Radiation Summer School in 2017 and will allow a small cohort of participants competitively selected in Fall 2023 to gain hands-on radiation experience.

SHINE↗

Assessing outdoor air quality and public health impact attributable to residential black carbon emissions in rural China

Black carbon (BC) is a significant component of particulate matter (PM) that relates to air pollution, climate forcing, and further implications for public health. BC is predominantly released from the combustion of solid fuels. Combustion of low-quality fuels in rural China may induce severe respiratory and cardiopulmonary health outcomes for residents, which have however been inadequately assessed. One major reason for the limited understanding is the lack of a high-resolution inventory. An improved method of estimating the BC-associated public health burden is needed. This work quantified premature mortalities due to residential BC emissions in rural China. Domestic BC emissions at 1×1 km resolution were compiled based on previous field investigation, which were further configured for air quality simulation. A chemistry transport model, WRF–CMAQ v5.2, was employed for simulating BC concentrations. The consequent premature mortalities were quantified by a BC-specific concentration-response function (CRF) derived from an epidemiological study. Results show that residential combustion of solid fuel in rural China emitted 648.0 Gg (95%CI: 361.0–965.9) BC in 2014, after dispersion, accounting for 51.8% of annual mean ground-level BC concentration in China. Such impact was most severe in North and Northeast China, and the Sichuan Basin. The further investigation estimated 171,000 (95%CI: 69,000–387,000) premature mortalities that were attributable to exposure to rural residential BC. These findings reveal the major contribution of rural residential BC emissions to air pollution formation and public health impacts. Our findings are anticipated to provide useful information for enacting the next-stage environmental strategy for the residential sector in China.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Self-reported health impacts of do-it-yourself air cleaner use in a smoke-impacted community

Smoke exposure from wildfires or residential wood burning for heat is a public health problem for many communities. Do-It-Yourself (DIY) portable air cleaners (PACs) are promoted as affordable alternatives to commercial PACs, but evidence of their effect on health outcomes is limited. Pilot test an evaluation of the effect of DIY PAC usage on self-reported symptoms, and investigate barriers and facilitators of PAC use, among members of a tribal community that routinely experiences elevated concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) from smoke. We conducted studies in Fall 2021 (“wildfire study”; N = 10) and Winter 2022 (“wood stove study”; N = 17). Each study included four sequential one-to-two-week phases: 1) initial, 2) DIY PAC usage ≥8 h/day, 3) commercial PAC usage ≥8 h/day, and 4) air sensor with visual display and optional PAC use. We continuously monitored PAC usage and indoor/outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations in homes. Concluding each phase, we conducted phone surveys about participants’ symptoms, perceptions, and behaviors. We analyzed symptoms associated with PAC usage and conducted an analysis of indoor PM 2.5 concentrations as a mediating pathway using mixed effects multivariate linear regression. We categorized perceptions related to PACs into barriers and facilitators of use. No association was observed between PAC usage and symptoms, and the mediation analysis did not indicate that small observed trends were attributable to changes in indoor PM 2.5 concentrations. Small sample sizes hindered the ability to draw conclusions regarding the presence or absence of causal associations. DIY PAC usage was low; loud operating noise was a barrier to use. This research is novel in studying health effects of DIY PACs during wildfire and wood smoke exposures. Such research is needed to inform public health guidance. Recommendations for future studies on PAC use during smoke exposure include building flexibility of intervention timing into the study design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate and Health Impacts of US Emissions Reductions Consistent with 2 C

An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public health benefits have been quantified for less-aggressive potential emissions-reduction policies, but researchers have not yet fully explored the multiple benefits of reductions consistent with 2 C. We examine the impacts of such highly ambitious scenarios for clean energy and vehicles. US transportation emissions reductions avoid approx.0.03 C global warming in 2030 (0.15 C in 2100), whereas energy emissions reductions avoid approx.0.05-0.07 C 2030 warming (approx.0.25 C in 2100). Nationally, however, clean energy policies produce climate disbenefits including warmer summers (although these would be eliminated by the remote effects of similar policies if they were undertaken elsewhere). The policies also greatly reduce damaging ambient particulate matter and ozone. By 2030, clean energy policies could prevent approx.175,000 premature deaths, with approx.22,000 (11,000-96,000; 95% confidence) fewer annually thereafter, whereas clean transportation could prevent approx.120,000 premature deaths and approx.14,000 (9,000-52,000) annually thereafter. Near-term national benefits are valued at approx.US$250 billion (140 billion to 1,050billion) per year, which is likely to exceed implementation costs. Including longer-term, worldwide climate impacts, benefits roughly quintuple, becoming approx.5-10 times larger than estimated implementation costs. Achieving the benefits, however, would require both larger and broader emissions reductions than those in current legislation or regulations.

policies↗

Vermont & New Hampshire Ecological Forecasting: Monitoring Trends in Tree Defoliation Due to Lymantria dispar Outbreaks to Predict Future Hardwood Tree Mortality and Health Impacts

The invasive, herbivorous insect Lymantria dispar is a major defoliator of hardwood trees in the northeastern United States. Established populations of L. dispar typically rest at low levels but undergo recurring outbreaks that cause tree mortality if they occur in quick succession or are combined with other stressors on tree health. Widespread defoliation events disrupt local wildlife, economies, and livelihoods. Accurate monitoring of defoliation events is necessary to implement effective land management practices that support tree health. There are challenges to accurately monitoring L. dispar outbreaks that include the ephemeral character of defoliation disturbances and the difficulties of conducting large-scale surveys of L. dispar populations using existing aerial and ground-based data collection methods. To better monitor the impact of L. dispar on forests in Vermont and New Hampshire, the NASA DEVELOP team partnered with organizations responsible for supporting land and invasive species management including the Forest Ecosystem Monitoring Cooperative, the Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food and Markets, the University of New Hampshire Cooperative Extension, and the New Hampshire Division of Forests and Lands, Forest Health Program. The team used NASA Earth observations collected by the Terra, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Landsat 7, and Landsat 8 satellites along with ancillary datasets to map historical tree defoliation from 2012 to 2021. In support of partners’ future land management efforts, the team created a Google Earth Engine tool that displays annual defoliation extent.

Seamore Zhu↗

State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal

As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. In this study, we show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km 3 /year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km 2 ). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Potential Health Impacts, Treatments, and Countermeasures of Martian Dust on Future Human Space Exploration

The challenges of human space exploration produce some of humanity’s greatest technological and scientific advances, not excluding innovations in medicine. The microgravity environment causes a whole host of physiological changes, and exposure to dust on the Moon caused considerable pulmonary distress to astronauts during the Apollo missions. As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)and other space organizations prepare for long duration exploration missions to Mars, the hazards and consequences of the Martian surface need to be accounted for. This review investigates how substances analogous to the hazardous components of Martian dust have caused disease in people on Earth. Because of the small grain size of Martian dust, dust on Mars is more likely to cause lung irritation, absorb into the bloodstream, and lead to diseases in astronauts. Toxic components of Martian dust to astronaut health include perchlorates, silica, nanophase iron oxides, and gypsum in addition to trace amounts of toxic metals whose abundances are debated: chromium, beryllium, arsenic, and cadmium. Predicted effects of dust exposure ranges from asymptomatic to life threatening, with many substances being carcinogenic and most damage impacting the pulmonary system. The longer transit time for astronauts to return home makes the operations of performing emergency medical treatment more difficult and increases both the likelihood and consequences of developing chronic disease. Exposure mitigation needs to be prioritized; however, supplements may be taken to prevent disease from breakthrough exposures and treatment regimens could lessen morbidity and mortality. Treatments and equipment need to be carefully thought out and transported with the astronauts to be prepared for all possible scenarios.

Justin L Wang↗

Overview of the Inaugural Space Health Impacts for the NASA Experience (SHINE) Training Program – Virtual Space Radiation Curriculum

The Space Radiation Element part of NASA Human Research Program initiated a virtual, annual space radiation curriculum. The SHINE space radiation curriculum aims to educate participants not only in the scientific aspects of space radiation but also in the agency’s risk management strategies. SHINE combines weekly seminars by speakers from NASA, other government agencies, academia, and industry, with networking sessions designed to foster collaboration between participants and interactions with NASA scientists. A total of 59 applications were received from which 25 participants were selected. The 25 participants, with citizenship from a total of 8 countries, are composed of 5 graduate students, 4 postdocs, 11 scientists and 5 professors/medical doctors. Participants have a wide range of expertise including molecular and cellular biology, microbiology, botany, physiology, engineering, physics, aerospace medicine, planetary science, biostatistics, and modeling. The inaugural course ran weekly from February 2023 to August 2023 and was comprised of lectures, less formal coffee hours and office hours. The topics covered ranged from space environments to health effects to granting opportunities. The second annual SHINE training program is scheduled from February to August 2024. In addition, a separate competitive practicum session, to allow participants to gain hands-on radiation experience, will be held Fall 2024 at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL).

Janice A. Zawask↗

Overview of The Inaugural Space Health Impacts for the NASA Experience (SHINE) Training Program - Virtual Space Radiation Curriculum

The Space Radiation Element part of NASA Human Research Program initiated a virtual, annual space radiation curriculum. The SHINE space radiation curriculum aims to educate participants not only in the scientific aspects of space radiation but also in the agency’s risk management strategies. SHINE combines weekly seminars by speakers from NASA, other government agencies, academia, and industry, with networking sessions designed to foster collaboration between participants and interactions with NASA scientists. A total of 59 applications were received from which 25 participants were selected. The 25 participants, with citizenship from a total of 8 countries, are composed of 5 graduate students, 4 postdocs, 11 scientists and 5 professors/medical doctors. Participants have a wide range of expertise including molecular and cellular biology, microbiology, botany, physiology, engineering, physics, aerospace medicine, planetary science, biostatistics, and modeling. The inaugural course ran weekly from February 2023 to August 2023 and was comprised of lectures, less formal coffee hours and office hours. The topics covered ranged from space environments to health effects to granting opportunities. The second annual SHINE training program is scheduled from February to August 2024. In addition, a separate competitive practicum session, to allow participants to gain hands-on radiation experience, will be held Fall 2024 at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL).

SHINE↗

Present-Day and Future PM 2.5 and O 3 -Related Global and Regional Premature Mortality in the EVAv6.0 Health Impact Assessment Model

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015–2050) global PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM 2.5 -related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM 2.5 -related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O 3 -related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality leads to 5.3–5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM 2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM 2.5 -related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM 2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM 2.5 -related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Premature mortality↗

Current inequality and future potential of US urban tree cover for reducing heat-related health impacts

Excessive heat is a major and growing risk for urban residents. Here, we estimate the inequality in summertime heat-related mortality, morbidity, and electricity consumption across 5723 US municipalities and other places, housing 180 million people during the 2020 census. On average, trees in majority non-Hispanic white neighborhoods cool the air by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C more than in POC neighborhoods, leading annually to trees in white neighborhoods helping prevent 190 ± 139 more deaths, 30,131 ± 10,406 more doctors’ visits, and 1.4 ± 0.5 terawatt-hours (TWhr) more electricity consumption than in POC neighborhoods. We estimate that an ambitious reforestation program would require 1.2 billion trees and reduce population-weighted average summer temperatures by an additional 0.38 ± 0.01 °C. This temperature reduction would reduce annual heat-related mortality by an additional 464 ± 89 people, annual heat-related morbidity by 80,785 ± 6110 cases, and annual electricity consumption by 4.3 ± 0.2 TWhr, while increasing annual carbon sequestration in trees by 23.7 ± 1.2 MtCO 2 e yr -1 and decreasing annual electricity-related GHG emissions by 2.1 ± 0.2 MtCO 2 e yr -1 . The total economic value of these benefits, including the value of carbon sequestration and avoided emissions, would be USD 9.6 ± 0.5 billion, although in many neighborhoods the cost of planting and maintaining trees to achieve this increased tree cover would exceed these benefits. The exception is areas that currently have less tree cover, often the majority POC, which tend to have a relatively high return on investment from tree planting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Multi-Analysis Approach for Estimating Regional Health Impacts from the 2017 Northern California Wildfires

In the evening of October 8 and early hours of October 9, 2017, high winds in Northern California downed trees and power lines, igniting some of the most devastating wildfires the state had seen, and within hours unhealthy air quality impacted millions of people. We simulated these air quality conditions using fire detection information from the MODIS, VIIRS, and GOES-16 ABI satellite instruments, and applying a set of three WRF–CMAQ simulations, one data fusion, and three machine learning methods. We investigated using the 5-min available GOES-16 fire detection data to simulate timing of fire activity to allocate emissions hourly for the WRF-CMAQ air quality modeling system. Interestingly, this approach did not necessarily improve results compared to the baseline case, which used a default time profile. However, this approach was key to simulating the initial 12-hr explosive fire activity and smoke impacts. The WRF-CMAQ simulations compared well with observational data for the October 8-15 time period and tended to overestimate concentrations October 16-20. To improve these results, we applied three machine learning algorithms. We also had a unique opportunity to evaluate results with temporary monitors deployed specifically for wildfires, and performance was markedly different. For example, at the permanent monitoring locations, the WRF-CMAQ simulations had a Pearson correlation of 0.65, and the data fusion approach improved this (Pearson correlation = 0.95), while at the temporary monitor locations across the WRF-CMAQ, data fusion, and machine learning datasets, the best Pearson correlation was 0.5. The data fusion and machine learning results were biased low and WRF-CMAQ results were biased high. Finally, we applied the optimized PM2.5 exposure estimate in a short-term exposure-response function. Total estimated mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure during the smoke episode was 83 (95% confidence interval: 0, 196) with 47% of these deaths attributable to wildland fire smoke.

O'Neill, Susan↗